Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[jaichind]

https://nypost.com/2022/10/15/russia-is-giving-soldiers-viagra-to-rape-ukrainians-un-official/

"Russia is giving soldiers Viagra to rape Ukrainians: UN official"

looks like a recycled version of

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/apr/29/diplomat-gaddafi-troops-viagra-mass-rape

"Gaddafi 'supplies troops with Viagra to encourage mass rape', claims diplomat"

I am waiting for the "Russian troops take babies out of incubators and leave the babies to die." story to come out

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/GlasnostGone/status/1581559626675687424

His credibility is at stake here.  Zelensky said after Severodonetsk fell that no more Ukraiain cities would be captured and I actually give him credit for avoiding such an event over the last 3 months despite my skepticism.  It is not clear if Bakhmut will fall anytime soon other than the fact that the Wagner group is making slow and incremental progress despite being outnumbered with the help of firepower advantages.  If it does fall it would be a big blow from both strategic and prestige points of view for Zelensky.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1581592583683248128
https://twitter.com/JawadAbubakar7/status/1581412299272658945
https://twitter.com/JawadAbubakar7/status/1581412354956267520

The intelligence sources Rob Lee cited said they'd be delivered two kinds of missiles (with claimed ranges of 200km-700km) but didn't mention this drone. Either or both of these deliveries are, sadly, quite plausible.

An Israeli minister has called for aid to Ukraine in response but nothing is likely to change until the November election (if the country is lucky enough to get a government afterwards, that is), and my hunch is that Bibi will shut it down.

[jaichind]

There is literally no comparison between Ho Chi Minh/Vietnam in the 1960´s and Putin/Russia right now. In the end the Vietnamese were fighting a civil war over control of their own country. At no point did Vietnam pose a credible threat to the US or it's allies.

Putin on the other hand did invade a foreign nation to increase his interests. He threatens the west with nuclear war if he does not get his way and has the goods to back those words.

Ho Chi Minh was a national threat, maybe regional. Putin is a threat to the world.

Just to be clear the Vietnam war was not a civil war.  The 1954 Geneva Conference which the Viet Minh was party to created DRV and RVN as two separate states as well as Laos and Cambodia which clearly and legally defined boundaries.  There was a goal of unifying DRV and RVN a few years down the line which was never implemented (much like the 2015 Minsk Accords were never implemented).  But the Vietnam war that started in 1956 included DRV regular forces crossing international borders into Laos and then eventually RVN.  

BTW, the opposite is true for PRC and ROC.  That was a Chinese Civil war that never ended and never created any international boundaries.  A PRC attack on ROC today would not be crossing international boundaries and would merely be the resumption of a Chinese Civil war.

[Virginiá]

Just like the good ol' times

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1581601563432603648

[Lord Halifax]

BTW, the opposite is true for PRC and ROC. That was a Chinese Civil war that never ended and never created any international boundaries. A PRC attack on ROC today would not be crossing international boundaries and would merely be the resumption of a Chinese Civil war.

While that's technically true it's completely irrelevant since Taiwan is now a de facto sovereign state so it would be an international conflict regardless of the formalities.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

BTW, the opposite is true for PRC and ROC. That was a Chinese Civil war that never ended and never created any international boundaries. A PRC attack on ROC today would not be crossing international boundaries and would merely be the resumption of a Chinese Civil war.

While that's technically true it's completely irrelevant since Taiwan is now a de facto sovereign state so it would be an international conflict regardless of the formalities.

Taiwan neither claims independence nor waives de jure right to governance over mainland China. It'd be different from most civil wars, but at least comparable to those between factions with long-established, separate power structures.

[jaichind]

BTW, the opposite is true for PRC and ROC. That was a Chinese Civil war that never ended and never created any international boundaries. A PRC attack on ROC today would not be crossing international boundaries and would merely be the resumption of a Chinese Civil war.

While that's technically true it's completely irrelevant since Taiwan is now a de facto sovereign state so it would be an international conflict regardless of the formalities.

Formalities never really matter anyway in a world that was, is, and will be to be based on the right of conquest and dog eat dog.  PRC would not get any quarter on that or would not expect any in such a possible conflict.  This technical fact would help build internal cohesion for PRC if such a conflict were to take place but is irrelevant the geopolitical sphere.

[Lord Halifax]

BTW, the opposite is true for PRC and ROC. That was a Chinese Civil war that never ended and never created any international boundaries. A PRC attack on ROC today would not be crossing international boundaries and would merely be the resumption of a Chinese Civil war.

While that's technically true it's completely irrelevant since Taiwan is now a de facto sovereign state so it would be an international conflict regardless of the formalities.

Taiwan neither claims independence nor waives de jure right to governance over mainland China. It'd be different from most civil wars, but at least comparable to those between factions with long-established, separate power structures.

I'm aware of that, but no, it's not comparable to civil war between "factions with long-established, separate power structures", Taiwan is a separate nation state in all but name.

[Torie]

Re Starlink, Musk reverses course and decides not to throw Ukraine under the bus after all.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/10/16/world/russia-ukraine-war-news#musk-ukraine-internet-starlink

[Logical]

https://twitter.com/GlasnostGone/status/1581559626675687424

Bakhmut and the strategic village of Bum*uckivka will fall any day now!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So it seems that the events of the other day were triggered (hah) by a Russian officer deciding that copying the methods of the East India Company when dealing with Muslim recruits was a good and sensible idea.

[Frodo]

France ramps up war support for Ukraine, rebuilds armories

France on Sunday pledged air defense systems to protect Ukrainian cities against drone strikes, as well as an expanded training program for Ukrainian soldiers, as it seeks to puncture perceptions that French President Emmanuel Macron's government has lagged in supporting Ukraine militarily against the Russian invasion.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Absolute savages.

https://twitter.com/htTweets/status/1581609133983535104?t=3pDAbpWket7lOkA-3zr3zw...

[Person Man]

Absolute savages.

https://twitter.com/htTweets/status/1581609133983535104?t=3pDAbpWket7lOkA-3zr3zw...

This is why I’m not scared of the bomb anymore.

[jaichind]

Absolute savages.

https://twitter.com/htTweets/status/1581609133983535104?t=3pDAbpWket7lOkA-3zr3zw...

If Ukraine was so concerned about sexual assault why did it let out Ruslan Onishchenko, leader of the "Tornado Battalion", back in July to fight at the front
https://focus.ua/voennye-novosti/521825-osuzhdennyy-za-pytki-byvshiy-kombat-tornado-onishchenko-vyshel-na-svobodu-eks-nardep

Der Spiegel had a 2015 article documenting the sexual assault activities of the  "Tornado Battalion"
https://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/ukraine-prozess-gegen-pro-ukrainischer-kaempfer-a-1045801.html

[YPestis25]

Absolute savages.

https://twitter.com/htTweets/status/1581609133983535104?t=3pDAbpWket7lOkA-3zr3zw...

If Ukraine was so concerned about sexual assault why did it let out Ruslan Onishchenko, leader of the "Tornado Battalion", back in July to fight at the front
https://focus.ua/voennye-novosti/521825-osuzhdennyy-za-pytki-byvshiy-kombat-tornado-onishchenko-vyshel-na-svobodu-eks-nardep

Der Spiegel had a 2015 article documenting the sexual assault activities of the  "Tornado Battalion"
https://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/ukraine-prozess-gegen-pro-ukrainischer-kaempfer-a-1045801.html

If this is your response to a state sponsored strategy encouraging systemic sexual terror then I have nothing to say to you.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Absolute savages.

https://twitter.com/htTweets/status/1581609133983535104?t=3pDAbpWket7lOkA-3zr3zw...

If Ukraine was so concerned about sexual assault why did it let out Ruslan Onishchenko, leader of the "Tornado Battalion", back in July to fight at the front
https://focus.ua/voennye-novosti/521825-osuzhdennyy-za-pytki-byvshiy-kombat-tornado-onishchenko-vyshel-na-svobodu-eks-nardep

Der Spiegel had a 2015 article documenting the sexual assault activities of the  "Tornado Battalion"
https://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/ukraine-prozess-gegen-pro-ukrainischer-kaempfer-a-1045801.html

This is UN concern, not Ukrainian concern. The UN should not feign disinterest in atrocities simply because other atrocities also exist.

Though I would not be surprised if it were true, I've seen no indication that Onishchenko has rejoined (or even been allowed to rejoin) the Ukrainian military. He was apparently released in July after spending 7 years of his 11-year sentence in jail, but not in February when he appealed for early release to defend the country.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I have doubts any one side can position themselves as somehow "principled" on this issue.

[YPestis25]

I have doubts any one side can position themselves as somehow "principled" on this issue.

Show me a concerted Ukrainian strategy to weaponize rape. I'll wait.

Not everything is a "both-sides-do-it" issue. Sometimes, just sometimes, there is an absolute right and an absolute wrong.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The intelligence sources Rob Lee cited said they'd be delivered two kinds of missiles (with claimed ranges of 200km-700km) but didn't mention this drone. Either or both of these deliveries are, sadly, quite plausible.

An Israeli minister has called for aid to Ukraine in response but nothing is likely to change until the November election (if the country is lucky enough to get a government afterwards, that is), and my hunch is that Bibi will shut it down.

Isreali aid for Ukraine would be interesting (and welcomed). I wonder how Isreali domestic politics would be influenced by this kind of move from the Iranian government...(provided it's still there in December).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I have doubts any one side can position themselves as somehow "principled" on this issue.

Show me a concerted Ukrainian strategy to weaponize rape. I'll wait.

Not everything is a "both-sides-do-it" issue. Sometimes, just sometimes, there is an absolute right and an absolute wrong.

Dehumanizing things frequently happen in war. We would know. Our troops posed with dead Iraqis and took selfies with them! What utter "orcs" they were...

[jaichind]

If this is your response to a state sponsored strategy encouraging systemic sexual terror then I have nothing to say to you.

This was my response from earlier in the thread

https://nypost.com/2022/10/15/russia-is-giving-soldiers-viagra-to-rape-ukrainians-un-official/

"Russia is giving soldiers Viagra to rape Ukrainians: UN official"

looks like a recycled version of

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/apr/29/diplomat-gaddafi-troops-viagra-mass-rape

"Gaddafi 'supplies troops with Viagra to encourage mass rape', claims diplomat"

I am waiting for the "Russian troops take babies out of incubators and leave the babies to die." story to come out

Just to be clear.  I do not believe the story not just because it is a clone of a 2011 story.  I do not believe it because I see no reason the Russian or Libyan military will pursue a policy that will lead to a breakdown in military discipline.  If the story was about a military brothel like the Japanese did in WWII  then I will for sure believe it is possible or even likely.   Military-run brothels have been around since time immortal.  BTW, even the Japanese military brothel was then reorganized to be used for the USA occupation forces after the end of the war.  And we all know where the term "Hooker" came from. 

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Just to be clear.  I do not believe the story not just because it is a clone of a 2011 story.  I do not believe it because I see no reason the Russian or Libyan military will pursue a policy that will lead to a breakdown in military discipline.  If the story was about a military brothel like the Japanese did in WWII  then I will for sure believe it is possible or even likely.   Military-run brothels have been around since time immortal.  BTW, even the Japanese military brothel was then reorganized to be used for the USA occupation forces after the end of the war.  And we all know where the term "Hooker" came from. 

Yeah, that's a good point.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

So it seems that the events of the other day were triggered (hah) by a Russian officer deciding that copying the methods of the East India Company when dealing with Muslim recruits was a good and sensible idea.

Time is a flat circle