Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Get f[inks]ed traitor.

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1570737157689712640?t=1JGv6F933vYJQOFFF1C...

[Woody]

Many regions are now responding to Kadyrov's calls for more volunteer battalions. The head of Crimea has said that he has pledged two new battalions. Other heads of regions who publicly declared their support for this so far since his call include Magadan, Kirov, Kursk, Kemerovo and Vladivostok. The goal is 85,000 extra volunteer troops deployed to Ukraine (1000-2000 from each region).

In one of his recent videos, he said that if he was in charge he would already declare full mobilization.
https://twitter.com/Russ_Warrior/status/1570108890741886977
https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1570428282746839041
https://twitter.com/MoscowTimes/status/1570741663668047874

[CumbrianLefty]

I don't think there's ever been any real doubt that Kadyrov *talks* a good war.

[Torie]

I have this feeling if it were so easy to gin up "volunteers" it would have been some time ago, and the prisons would not being emptied now. So it seems more like a press release war move ala the Chechen thug.

[Person Man]

Get f[inks]ed traitor.

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1570737157689712640?t=1JGv6F933vYJQOFFF1C...

Atlas Nationalists: Triggered.

[Torie]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/16/world/europe/putin-modi-war-ukraine.html

On the one hand:

“In a news conference Friday after the summit of Asian leaders, Mr. Putin described recent Russian cruise missile attacks on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure as “warning strikes” that could portend an even more vicious campaign.

On the other hand:

“At the same time — apparently mindful of the unease among key partners like China and India — Mr. Putin insisted that he was ready for talks without naming any preconditions and that his war aims did not necessarily extend to all of Ukraine. … He said that the “main goal” of his invasion was limited to capturing the Donbas — the eastern Ukrainian region where Russia has recognized as independent two Kremlin-backed statelets but where Ukraine still controls several key cities and towns.
…
‘Yet Mr. Putin has repeatedly warned that Russia’s assault could still intensify — a threat now weighing on American officials, who believe Mr. Putin could increase the size of Russia’s forces deployed to Ukraine or could mount attacks against the NATO countries providing Ukraine with arms. The officials also say Russia could mount a new push in Ukraine’s east or south, or step up a campaign to target the Ukrainian leadership.”

What happens if Russia just starts firebombing Ukrainian cities to maximize the body count? Hopefully Russia is running out of missiles to do that. Putin is also unhappy with Ukraine blowing up stuff in Crimea. He does not like symmetrical wars.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Euan_MacDonald/status/1570867758489038849
To do stuff like this after everything Russia has done to them is simply amazing

[Mopsus]

Russian Vassal Ramzan Kadyrov Aims to Raise 1-2,000 Knights for Lord Putin, Challenges Other Fiefs to Do the Same

[Person Man]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/16/world/europe/putin-modi-war-ukraine.html

On the one hand:

“In a news conference Friday after the summit of Asian leaders, Mr. Putin described recent Russian cruise missile attacks on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure as “warning strikes” that could portend an even more vicious campaign.

On the other hand:

“At the same time — apparently mindful of the unease among key partners like China and India — Mr. Putin insisted that he was ready for talks without naming any preconditions and that his war aims did not necessarily extend to all of Ukraine. … He said that the “main goal” of his invasion was limited to capturing the Donbas — the eastern Ukrainian region where Russia has recognized as independent two Kremlin-backed statelets but where Ukraine still controls several key cities and towns.
…
‘Yet Mr. Putin has repeatedly warned that Russia’s assault could still intensify — a threat now weighing on American officials, who believe Mr. Putin could increase the size of Russia’s forces deployed to Ukraine or could mount attacks against the NATO countries providing Ukraine with arms. The officials also say Russia could mount a new push in Ukraine’s east or south, or step up a campaign to target the Ukrainian leadership.”

What happens if Russia just starts firebombing Ukrainian cities to maximize the body count? Hopefully Russia is running out of missiles to do that. Putin is also unhappy with Ukraine blowing up stuff in Crimea. He does not like symmetrical wars.

If he is desperate enough, do you think he might attempt to turn the ZNP into a dirty bomb? I’m guessing the chances are very low for that but they are not 0. That would put the US and NATO into a corner. Risk the end of our current society, or lose all international legitimacy to people like Putin. What would be a response that would avoid those two things?

[Torie]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/16/world/europe/putin-modi-war-ukraine.html

On the one hand:

“In a news conference Friday after the summit of Asian leaders, Mr. Putin described recent Russian cruise missile attacks on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure as “warning strikes” that could portend an even more vicious campaign.

On the other hand:

“At the same time — apparently mindful of the unease among key partners like China and India — Mr. Putin insisted that he was ready for talks without naming any preconditions and that his war aims did not necessarily extend to all of Ukraine. … He said that the “main goal” of his invasion was limited to capturing the Donbas — the eastern Ukrainian region where Russia has recognized as independent two Kremlin-backed statelets but where Ukraine still controls several key cities and towns.
…
‘Yet Mr. Putin has repeatedly warned that Russia’s assault could still intensify — a threat now weighing on American officials, who believe Mr. Putin could increase the size of Russia’s forces deployed to Ukraine or could mount attacks against the NATO countries providing Ukraine with arms. The officials also say Russia could mount a new push in Ukraine’s east or south, or step up a campaign to target the Ukrainian leadership.”

What happens if Russia just starts firebombing Ukrainian cities to maximize the body count? Hopefully Russia is running out of missiles to do that. Putin is also unhappy with Ukraine blowing up stuff in Crimea. He does not like symmetrical wars.

If he is desperate enough, do you think he might attempt to turn the ZNP into a dirty bomb? I’m guessing the chances are very low for that but they are not 0. That would put the US and NATO into a corner. Risk the end of our current society, or lose all international legitimacy to people like Putin. What would be a response that would avoid those two things?

If what you are hypothesizing is that Putin seriously threatens to go nuclear in that way, or does go nuclear, that is way beyond my pay grade. That said, my guess is the first move would be to try to get Russia to make a regime change, with maybe China and India joining in. If that fails, my next even wilder guess is that the US and NATO might provide Ukraine with much more lethal weapons, and in particular secure from further threat all remaining nuclear facilities in Ukraine with the appropriate defensive weapons, and maybe even troops. The message would be that Russia is running the risk of the conflict going nuclear, and the allies are not going to bend to nuclear blackmail.

If Russia starts using tactical nukes, and still no regime change, I would imagine that NATO goes in, with the message that if Russia keeps going and does not shut the war down, that there will be a response in kind on Russia itself. At that point, if not before, all of the US's covert assets or assets to which it has access will be deployed to assassinate Putin, including perhaps a missile if need be being sent to the right place. I would like to think that if not Putin himself, those around him don't really want to die in a nuclear holocaust over Putin's mad Ukraine obsession.

As I said, this is way beyond my pay grade, but Biden has warned Russia publically not to go there - or else.

There will from now until the end of our species be the risk of a nuclear end of it all if a madman chooses to go there and is not stopped by those around him. Which causes one to ponder with the proliferating number of bad ass actors out there with nukes, as to whether to the extent not done already, Reagan's nuclear defense shield needs to be dusted off, if there is much of a prospect it might mitigate matters.

I have observed before, and observe again, I do really regret what the younger generations coming online have to cope with these days. The social safety net is much better for those that need it, but the risks and stress and insecurity are also much greater. That is my sense of the matter anyway. And then we have existential challenge of global warming on top of all that. I guess a nuclear winter would mitigate that challenge for awhile.

[nicholas.slaydon]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/16/world/europe/putin-modi-war-ukraine.html

On the one hand:

“In a news conference Friday after the summit of Asian leaders, Mr. Putin described recent Russian cruise missile attacks on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure as “warning strikes” that could portend an even more vicious campaign.

On the other hand:

“At the same time — apparently mindful of the unease among key partners like China and India — Mr. Putin insisted that he was ready for talks without naming any preconditions and that his war aims did not necessarily extend to all of Ukraine. … He said that the “main goal” of his invasion was limited to capturing the Donbas — the eastern Ukrainian region where Russia has recognized as independent two Kremlin-backed statelets but where Ukraine still controls several key cities and towns.
…
‘Yet Mr. Putin has repeatedly warned that Russia’s assault could still intensify — a threat now weighing on American officials, who believe Mr. Putin could increase the size of Russia’s forces deployed to Ukraine or could mount attacks against the NATO countries providing Ukraine with arms. The officials also say Russia could mount a new push in Ukraine’s east or south, or step up a campaign to target the Ukrainian leadership.”

What happens if Russia just starts firebombing Ukrainian cities to maximize the body count? Hopefully Russia is running out of missiles to do that. Putin is also unhappy with Ukraine blowing up stuff in Crimea. He does not like symmetrical wars.

If he is desperate enough, do you think he might attempt to turn the ZNP into a dirty bomb? I’m guessing the chances are very low for that but they are not 0. That would put the US and NATO into a corner. Risk the end of our current society, or lose all international legitimacy to people like Putin. What would be a response that would avoid those two things?

If there is one line that NATO members, and indeed the whole world as well will not allow Putin (or indeed any country) to cross without military reprisals, it is the line of nuclear terrorism. Any state which would use nuclear weapons (especially in the manner described above) would a total rouge state that no country would want to have anything to do with, and every country would want to see its leadership removed. However, that doesn't mean that reprisal requires direct military intervention either. There is more than one way to skin a cat, and if Russia did take the course of nuclear terrorism, everyone in the Russian government should take steps to not eat or drink anything they haven't prepared with their own hands, and to lock themselves inside some impenetrable bunker somewhere, or else.

[Torie]

Apparently there is Donbass front line is getting very bloody, with the Russians shelling the sh*t out of everything. And Russia still has its fans in the area unfortunately, primarily among older working class people.  There are the “waiters” for the Russians to take over, and the “correctors” passing on intelligence to the Russians from behind the lines.  The towns now mostly lie in ruins. From factories to the rust belt of closed factories, now with the rest of the infrastructure all reduced to rubble.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/17/world/europe/ukraine-war-donbas-putin.html

“Our walls now shake every day from shelling,” said one Ukrainian soldier on the front lines who could not be identified because of the sensitivity of his position. He said that the Ukrainian military was taking heavy casualties in the Donbas and that “the Russians storm us every day and seize our territory by a couple of meters a day.”

‘In Soledar, an old salt mining town, earsplitting explosions crack in every direction. Black smoke thickens the air. Civilians are refusing to evacuate, disobeying a direct order from the Ukrainian government to get out of the way of the incoming troops. Places like this have become a snake pit. The troops do not trust the people. The people do not trust the troops. Nobody trusts anybody.”

Below is a depiction of today’s shelling action by Russia.

[NOVA Green]

Must be quite a few "Refuseniks" if they even get their own special stamp.


https://twitter.com/kromark/status/1571156059598864386?s=20&t=llv7nsfKQ-K3gs...

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/MarkRid89403375/status/1571057196431187969?s=20&t=llv7ns...

[NOVA Green]

New Ukrainian drone toys.

https://twitter.com/tomaburque/status/1571139658826002432?s=20&t=llv7nsfKQ-K...

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1571210067860459525

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1571210067860459525

Wasn't this identified as some sort of Russian propaganda video they were filming?

[Splash]

Snip

Wasn't this identified as some sort of Russian propaganda video they were filming?

I think that question has been raised given that Russian reporters were are/were conveniently in the area, but I don't think it's been conclusively proven. 

[Virginiá]

What happens if Russia just starts firebombing Ukrainian cities to maximize the body count? Hopefully Russia is running out of missiles to do that. Putin is also unhappy with Ukraine blowing up stuff in Crimea. He does not like symmetrical wars.

The problem for the Russians is that these threats are going to lose some of their bite by the end of the year. Assuming there aren't any significant delays, Ukraine will have at least 2 NASAMS air defense systems, which can cover 150km each, within the next 2 months, and at least 2 IRIS-T air defense systems, which can cover roughly the same amount, if not more. 2023 will also see a rollout of even more systems as early as Spring.

Russia is going to find it very difficult to indiscriminately bomb critical infrastructure and major cities after that, assuming Ukraine places these systems strategically.

[Epaminondas]

Haven't seen this posted yet on this thread: in 2019 (long before the war began!), researchers at the Princeton Program on Science and Global Security created a simulated war "using realistic nuclear weapons positions, targets, and fatality estimates to show the consequences that a nuclear war could have on both countries and the world".

The simulation’s scenario predicted 91.5 million casualties, with 34.1 million dead and 57.4 million injured.

Here's their page: https://sgs.princeton.edu/the-lab/plan-a with eerie video.

Not sure I buy Putin going mad and dragging down every Russian with him, but their prediction that an Eastern European land conflict might start this was spot on.

[Torie]

Well this is discouraging. The Russians per the NYT are closing in on Bakhmut.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/09/17/world/ukraine-russia-war#russia-continues-attacking-in-ukraines-east-despite-recent-setbacks

I think I get Putin's end game and strategy. He wants to snatch everything where at least a substantial minority of the population do not, even now, hate what Putin is doing. It is rust belt places sort of like Youngstown Ohio on steroids where whatever remnants of the educated middle class are mostly long gone, and people remember the "good old days" of plants humming during the era of the Soviet empire.

I think Putin kind of gets it that absent massive ethnic cleansing he is not going to be able to hold places where he is hated.

That is my just my take winging it.

[JimJamUK]

Well this is discouraging. The Russians per the NYT are closing in on Bakhmut.

I think I get Putin's end game and strategy. He wants to snatch everything where at least a substantial minority of the population do not, even now, hate what Putin is doing. It is rust belt places sort of like Youngstown Ohio on steroids where whatever remnants of the educated middle class are mostly long gone, and people remember the "good old days" of plants humming during the era of the Soviet empire.

Support for Russia is not based on the lack of ‘educated middle class’ (when did such people live in Bakhmut?) or the deindustrialisation of eastern Ukraine*, it’s based on the non-insignificant Russian minorities. Case in point, Bakhmut is 28% Russian by ethnicity and 62% Russian by language. Whatever proportion of these groups that still back Russia are doing so based on identity, not because they are ‘left behind’.

*There is a decent correlation between Russian ethnic/speaking populations and industrialisation/urbanisation in eastern Ukraine as Russian workers moved in large numbers to work in industrial jobs, but I’ve not seen any evidence that economic nostalgia divorced from Russian identity is a significant explanatory factor.

[NOVA Green]

Well this is discouraging. The Russians per the NYT are closing in on Bakhmut.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/09/17/world/ukraine-russia-war#russia-continues-attacking-in-ukraines-east-despite-recent-setbacks

I think I get Putin's end game and strategy. He wants to snatch everything where at least a substantial minority of the population do not, even now, hate what Putin is doing. It is rust belt places sort of like Youngstown Ohio on steroids where whatever remnants of the educated middle class are mostly long gone, and people remember the "good old days" of plants humming during the era of the Soviet empire.

I think Putin kind of gets it that absent massive ethnic cleansing he is not going to be able to hold places where he is hated.

That is my just my take winging it.

Well although Torie I certainly don't consider you to be a "doomer", the prospect is actually much better as the Ukrainian offense in Kharkiv Oblast looks to be likely making a major breakthrough.

Well considering that Lyman might be liberated from Russian Occupation perhaps as early as Tomorrow, looks like a relatively decent trade from the Ukrainian perspective.

https://twitter.com/Noel_dotsol/status/1571220843056795650?s=20&t=or58NEVZ_f...

https://twitter.com/Ukrainene/status/1571212454197170181?s=20&t=or58NEVZ_fOj...

https://twitter.com/PaladinoEU/status/1571242448726237185?s=20&t=or58NEVZ_fO...

https://twitter.com/PeterClifford1/status/1571250861547954176?s=20&t=or58NEV...

https://twitter.com/Ukrainene/status/1571213817207463945?s=20&t=or58NEVZ_fOj...

[Torie]

Well this is discouraging. The Russians per the NYT are closing in on Bakhmut.

I think I get Putin's end game and strategy. He wants to snatch everything where at least a substantial minority of the population do not, even now, hate what Putin is doing. It is rust belt places sort of like Youngstown Ohio on steroids where whatever remnants of the educated middle class are mostly long gone, and people remember the "good old days" of plants humming during the era of the Soviet empire.

Support for Russia is not based on the lack of ‘educated middle class’ (when did such people live in Bakhmut?) or the deindustrialisation of eastern Ukraine*, it’s based on the non-insignificant Russian minorities. Case in point, Bakhmut is 28% Russian by ethnicity and 62% Russian by language. Whatever proportion of these groups that still back Russia are doing so based on identity, not because they are ‘left behind’.

*There is a decent correlation between Russian ethnic/speaking populations and industrialisation/urbanisation in eastern Ukraine as Russian workers moved in large numbers to work in industrial jobs, but I’ve not seen any evidence that economic nostalgia divorced from Russian identity is a significant explanatory factor.

I was influenced by a NYT article that more middle class Russian speakers in the zone, believe that being under Putin's thumb is a very bad business plan and life style for them. One was pistol whipped by some young punk Ukrainian soldier passing by but it did not change his mind. The poor judgement of one kid is irrelevant to what he thinks is best for the region's future. The guy after losing his industrial job back when, moved on to concierge farming. It kind of reminded me of the Hudson Valley.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1571245638913851394