Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Don't believe this has yet been posted on this thread, but apologies in advance if I somehow missed it.

Russia is clearly starting to scrape the bottom of the barrel now if they are relocating a significant number of additional soldiers from a volatile Ex-Soviet border region...

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1570420732278210561?s=20&t=LObMgEnSc72eTY...

And yet the soldiers they have in Transnistria that are closest at hand apparently are to remain in place. 

When does Putin become desperate enough to make a push from that direction I wonder?

[Lief 🗽]

For those interested in counter-spin regarding the state of the Russian Economy, as compared with perhaps a few more optimistic assessments presented on this thread:

https://twitter.com/NoYardstick/status/1570426432471592960?s=20&t=LObMgEnSc7...

Don't you understand? Countries only cut their budgets by 10% across the board when their economies are very healthy!

[Frodo]

Don't believe this has yet been posted on this thread, but apologies in advance if I somehow missed it.

Russia is clearly starting to scrape the bottom of the barrel now if they are relocating a significant number of additional soldiers from a volatile Ex-Soviet border region...

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1570420732278210561?s=20&t=LObMgEnSc72eTY...

And yet the soldiers they have in Transnistria that are closest at hand apparently are to remain in place.  

When does Putin become desperate enough to make a push from that direction I wonder?

Now would be a good time while he still has troops to command over there.  Or, alternately, he could evacuate what he has while he still has an army to evacuate:

Russian Force Sees 'Mass Desertion' Amid Putin's Recruitment Push: Report

Although this report (by Ukrainian intelligence) has yet to be verified by independent sources.  

[Badger]

For those interested in counter-spin regarding the state of the Russian Economy, as compared with perhaps a few more optimistic assessments presented on this thread:

https://twitter.com/NoYardstick/status/1570426432471592960?s=20&t=LObMgEnSc7...

 B..b..but Slytherchind said Russia was doing just fine and it was the Europe energy Market that was about to collapse and bend the knee. What's going on??

[Storr]

Unfortunate, but not unexpected:

https://twitter.com/spook_info/status/1570513933177597952?s=20&t=pY5eLEKGgte...

Izyum isn't really a town imo. It's prewar population was 46,000 which is larger than Bucha's prewar population of 37,000.

https://twitter.com/JohnSimpsonNews/status/1570341055224221696?s=20&t=pY5eLE...

[Storr]

Unfortunate, but not unexpected:

https://twitter.com/spook_info/status/1570513933177597952?s=20&t=pY5eLEKGgte...

Izyum isn't really a town imo. It's prewar population was 46,000 which is larger than Bucha's prewar population of 37,000.

https://twitter.com/JohnSimpsonNews/status/1570341055224221696?s=20&t=pY5eLE...

some context:

https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1570494502863007744?s=20&t=pY5eLEKGg...

https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1570494506734321664?s=20&t=pY5eLEKGg...

[NOVA Green]

Unfortunate, but not unexpected:

https://twitter.com/spook_info/status/1570513933177597952?s=20&t=pY5eLEKGgte...

Izyum isn't really a town imo. It's prewar population was 46,000 which is larger than Bucha's prewar population of 37,000.

https://twitter.com/JohnSimpsonNews/status/1570341055224221696?s=20&t=pY5eLE...

some context:

https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1570494502863007744?s=20&t=pY5eLEKGg...

https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1570494506734321664?s=20&t=pY5eLEKGg...

Thanks for posting Storr and this naturally a developing story.

Totally Grok that people have IRL stuff going on...

Posted this earlier today on the thread, so maybe somehow developing stories can be merged on a "Hot Topic" thread?

[/tweet]

Anyways Storr, posted the following a couple hours back:

A huge mass grave site has been found in recently liberated Izium containing (440) individual graves.

Sounds like around 1,000 dead bodies in all have been discovered thus far just within Izium.

Cause of death appears to be from multiple causes, although it is in the early stages of investigation by the forensic teams, and complicated by the length of time between the time of death and exhumation of bodies of the deceased.

Links and quotes both the NYT and Sky News articles below:

New York Times:

A mass burial ground with about 440 individual graves has been found in Izium in the days since the city, in Ukraine’s northeast, was reclaimed from Russian forces in a lightning offensive last week, a senior Ukrainian police official told Sky News on Thursday.

Serhii Bolvinov, the head of the investigative department of the regional police force in Kharkiv, said the bodies would be exhumed and forensically examined as part of an investigation into whether Russian forces committed war crimes during their occupation.

President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine confirmed the discovery of the grave site in his nightly address on Thursday, saying “there should be more information, clear, verified information” after journalists visit the city on Friday.

Anton Gerashchenko, an adviser to Ukraine’s minister of internal affairs who traveled to Izium with Mr. Zelensky on Wednesday, told the BBC on Thursday that about 1,000 dead bodies had been found in the city since it was liberated last week.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/09/15/world/ukraine-russia-war/a-mass-grave-site-with-440-bodies-was-found-in-izium-a-police-official-said?smid=url-share

SKY NEWS: (Non-Paywall)

Earlier, Sky News broadcast an interview with Serhii Bolvinov, the chief police investigator for the Kharkiv region, who revealed the discovery of the mass burial site.

He said officers were also aware of a number of other sites elsewhere in the Kharkiv region.

Mr Bolvinov and his team, along with prosecutors and other specialists, have the vital task of investigating all suspected Russian war crimes in the villages, towns and cities that have been recaptured by Ukrainian troops in a lightning offensive this month.

Asked if he could say how the victims had died, he responded: "We know that some were killed [shot dead], some died because of artillery fire, so-called mine explosion traumas. Some died because of airstrikes. Also we have information that a lot of bodies have not been not identified yet. So the reasons of death will be established during the investigations."

Mr Bolvinov was speaking from an undisclosed location in Kharkiv city after the police station where he and his officers work was hit in Russian missile strikes earlier in the week.

https://news.sky.com/story/mass-burial-site-containing-440-graves-found-in-izyum-after-city-liberated-by-ukrainian-forces-12698332

[OSR stands with Israel]

Don't believe this has yet been posted on this thread, but apologies in advance if I somehow missed it.

Russia is clearly starting to scrape the bottom of the barrel now if they are relocating a significant number of additional soldiers from a volatile Ex-Soviet border region...

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1570420732278210561?s=20&t=LObMgEnSc72eTY...

And yet the soldiers they have in Transnistria that are closest at hand apparently are to remain in place.  

When does Putin become desperate enough to make a push from that direction I wonder?

Now would be a good time while he still has troops to command over there.  Or, alternately, he could evacuate what he has while he still has an army to evacuate:

Russian Force Sees 'Mass Desertion' Amid Putin's Recruitment Push: Report

Although this report (by Ukrainian intelligence) has yet to be verified by independent sources.  

Could it result in a full blown Mutiny

[NOVA Green]

Wagner Brigade to Russia's rescue... let send out the convicts to do something the regular Russian military is incapable of doing!

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1570676754997727232?s=20&t=q74x4mIbTub8os...

[Middle-aged Europe]

Wagner Brigade to Russia's rescue... let send out the convicts to do something the regular Russian military is incapable of doing!

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1570676754997727232?s=20&t=q74x4mIbTub8os...

In 2022, a crack commando unit was sent to prison by a military court for a crime they didn't commit. These men promptly escaped from a maximum security stockade to the Moscow underground. Today, still wanted by the government, they survive as soldiers of fortune. If Vladimir Putin has a problem, if no one else can help, and if you can find them, maybe you can hire... the WA-Team*.

(* = WA for "Wagner")

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://mobile.twitter.com/AP/status/1570654362447347713


https://mobile.twitter.com/Sino_Market/status/1570711750642896896


https://mobile.twitter.com/business/status/1570717138947563526

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Most of the unguided rockets that could serve as cheaper, shorter-range alternatives to GMLRS - perhaps against artillery - have been or are soon to be retired, but it would take months to equip them with alternative warheads (the vast majority used to be, or still are, cluster munitions, and are either inert or extremely unlikely to be sent, respectively).

IIRC, I also read that the MARS launchers' FCS won't allow launch of submunition rockets.

Mostly I agree that cluster bombs are a scourge to be avoided, but there are some limited situations where they would be useful, such as attacking staging areas, air bases, or really any large base or formation. Nonetheless, I'd be very surprised if those found their way to Ukraine.

I'm not sure how MARS differentiates between M26 with cluster bombs and M26 with anti-tank mine submunitions, but I've read this too. Cluster bombs' least war crime-y use case was replaced by the M30A2 warhead for MLRS, which uses inert balls of tungsten to recreate the initial area effect without wrecking the land for civilians decades later. The M30A2 does not appear to have been supplied to Ukraine, and as with these old M26, ER-GMLRS and GLSDB, the debate about ATACMS appears to be crowding out requests for other kinds of M270/HIMARS munitions which could be useful.

Those M26s Germany has would be better off being converted to GMLRS if they chose to use them for Ukraine. Ukraine has Grads (even more launchers and ammo after Kharkiv) for unguided area targeting. Using M270s or HIMARS for that would be risky and not terribly useful, especially since M26s don't have the same range or accuracy as M30s and M31s.

Ukraine doesn't have enough Grads and M26s are likely to work better than them. If they have more launchers than can be supported by GMLRS production, then the launchers themselves become more attritable (especially if allies are willing to replace losses).

In the long run, upgrading these M26s (and maybe the LARS rockets) would prove more useful - but across Europe and the US, there are probably hundreds of thousands of M26 which could also be upgraded. The upgrade processes likely have production limits - the SDB warhead used in the GLSDB upgrade, for instance, has a smaller existing stockpile/lower production rate than GMLRS. It would make sense to prioritse the upgrade of munitions which currently have no use case.

If it would take years to clear the backlog of inert M26 (I think this is likely), there is little point in holding the useful M26/LARS in reserve. I think it is better to send them now while Ukraine is at war and in need of more artillery, so long as we are prepared to replace any destroyed launch vehicles. In a pinch, Europe and the US have a lot of retired M270A0 (which fire the old munitions, but not GMLRS) which could be restored and sent to Ukraine for this purpose.

[GoTfan]

bilaps in shambles at all this winning.

[Torie]

Wagner Brigade to Russia's rescue... let send out the convicts to do something the regular Russian military is incapable of doing!

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1570676754997727232?s=20&t=q74x4mIbTub8os...

This is really turning into a bad novel. We have this caricature of a macho man  who grew up in a mob family in St. Petersburg, who took over the whole freaking country as its absolute boss, plus the Russian Orthodox church run by a guy as bloodthirsty and vicious as he is, who wants as much real estate as possible, as ethnically cleansed as possible, emptying the prisons to get  sadists to execute that without undue stress, a replacement theory guy in reverse on steroids, who now buys weapons from Iran and N. Korea,  and is doing his best to freeze Europe to death. This plot line is so ludicrous, that I would have to use hard drugs to get my brain able to suspend my disbelief. There just isn't enough room on this planet for this guy.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/laraseligman/status/1570526838933557248

Only 600M? I don't understand why they do it in small drips instead of a full long-term aid package numbered in the billions.

Yup, we should do more. Especially since I'm worried a GOP-controlled House may just not authorize much additional aid. I just don't trust them. And neither should Biden.

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/laraseligman/status/1570526838933557248

Only 600M? I don't understand why they do it in small drips instead of a full long-term aid package numbered in the billions.

Yup, we should do more. Especially since I'm worried a GOP-controlled House may just not authorize much additional aid. I just don't trust them. And neither should Biden.

I haven't done any research, but lend-lease starts Oct 1st. so I don't know how that changes the process.

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/felix_light/status/1570776934459772929

Now, gimme some more discounted oil.

[DINGO Joe]

I'm sure this will solve the manpower problem

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1570662673305735169

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Wagner Brigade to Russia's rescue... let send out the convicts to do something the regular Russian military is incapable of doing!

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1570676754997727232?s=20&t=q74x4mIbTub8os...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dirlewanger_Brigade

[NOVA Green]

A few small updates from Ukraine:

An explosion killed the prosecutor-general of the Russian-controlled Luhansk breakaway region and his deputy at their office in eastern Ukraine on Friday, according to Russian news agencies.

Shelling hit a building of the Russian-appointed administration in the occupied city of Kherson, killing one person, a pro-Russian official said, blaming Ukrainian forces. There was no immediate comment from Kyiv.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/16/russia-ukraine-war-latest-updates/

[Badger]

Wagner Brigade to Russia's rescue... let send out the convicts to do something the regular Russian military is incapable of doing!

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1570676754997727232?s=20&t=q74x4mIbTub8os...

Does anyone want to bet on how many days, or even hours these convicts will remain under command before deserting once they reach the front lines?

[GoTfan]

So I just heard a rumour that the Russians are storing ammunition at a nuclear plant. That true?

[Aurelius]

Don't believe this has yet been posted on this thread, but apologies in advance if I somehow missed it.

Russia is clearly starting to scrape the bottom of the barrel now if they are relocating a significant number of additional soldiers from a volatile Ex-Soviet border region...

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1570420732278210561?s=20&t=LObMgEnSc72eTY...

And yet the soldiers they have in Transnistria that are closest at hand apparently are to remain in place.  

When does Putin become desperate enough to make a push from that direction I wonder?

It's only 1200 soldiers and they're separated by 500 miles from the frontlines. That's not just desperate, it's suicidal. Putin is many things but I don't think he shares General Wolfe's philosophy that mass casualties are good for morale.

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1570790073834082305

[Virginiá]

So I just heard a rumour that the Russians are storing ammunition at a nuclear plant. That true?

They are storing weapons, vehicles, etc at the Zaporizhzhia NPP, and using it as cover to launch attacks on Ukrainian positions. They also seem to have shelled the plant itself in an absurd effort to try and convince everyone the Ukrainians are actually the ones risking a catastrophic accident, at one point going so far as to say to an IAEA inspector that the reason a shell appeared to have landed with a trajectory from occupied territory was because it was some special NATO round that stops and makes a 180° turn mid-air. Since then, the plant, still under Russian control, has been slowly disconnected from the Ukrainian grid and is being shut down.