Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1505260472492347395
https://twitter.com/franakviacorka/status/1504058093159727108
https://twitter.com/HannaLiubakova/status/1505972610177421316

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/mjluxmoore/status/1505973168938307584

The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation refutes the information of the Ukrainian General Staff about the allegedly large-scale losses of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine. According to the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, during the special operation in Ukraine, the Russian Armed Forces lost 9861 people killed, 16153 people were injured.

Wait, the Russians are claiming this? Doesn’t Russia always report hilariously low casualties? If this is there number either it is a typo or they are allot worse off than we though.

Yes. The article said that the Ukraine claimed 14.7k killed while Russia disputed the number and said that the actual number is 9861.

According to preliminary estimates of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, from the beginning of the special military operation in Ukraine to March 20, the Russian Armed Forces lost 96 aircraft, 118 helicopters and 14.7 thousand military troops.

The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation refutes the information of the Ukrainian General Staff about the allegedly large-scale losses of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine. According to the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, during the special operation in Ukraine, the Russian Armed Forces lost 9861 people killed, 16153 people were injured.

The numbers have now been removed from the website entirely.

[Torie]

My takeaway from all of this is the "the West" needs to avoid being too economically interdependent with nations of power that might become adversarial to the breaking point.  "The West" needs to be able to quickly press the go into backup mode button, and replace whatever goods and services are cut off with adequate substitutes. In other words, if need be "the West" needs to be able effectuate a quick and not unduly painful divorce. And "the West" will need to pay a rather expensive insurance premium to get there. Both military and economic preparedness needs to be in play. To cut to the chase, the above policy needs to be in place for both China and Russia. They can and will and probably are returning the favor.

The iron curtain is back - bigger and "better" than ever, or prudence dictates that it should be.
And yes, it sucks. It sucks a lot. One wishes one could break bread with authoritarians without the risk of getting poisoned, but not in this life.

[BlueSwan]

My takeaway from all of this is the "the West" needs to avoid being too economically interdependent with nations of power that might become adversarial to the breaking point.  "The West" needs to be able to quickly press the go into backup mode button, and replace whatever goods and services are cut off with adequate substitutes. In other words, if need be "the West" needs to be able effectuate a quick and not unduly painful divorce. And "the West" will need to pay a rather expensive insurance premium to get there. Both military and economic preparedness needs to be in play. To cut to the chase, the above policy needs to be in place for both China and Russia. They can and will and probably are returning the favor.

I disagree. Interdependency is still good, we just can't be AS dependent as we currently are on something as crucial as energy supply from potentially hostile authoritarian regimes. If this war blows over and there is regime change in Russia, we should definitely reengage with Russia trade-wise, but still work towards energy independence.

[pppolitics]

According to the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, during the special operation in Ukraine, the Russian Armed Forces lost 9861 people killed, 16153 people were injured.

So, there you have it!

[Red Velvet]

My takeaway from all of this is the "the West" needs to avoid being too economically interdependent with nations of power that might become adversarial to the breaking point.  "The West" needs to be able to quickly press the go into backup mode button, and replace whatever goods and services are cut off with adequate substitutes. In other words, if need be "the West" needs to be able effectuate a quick and not unduly painful divorce. And "the West" will need to pay a rather expensive insurance premium to get there. Both military and economic preparedness needs to be in play. To cut to the chase, the above policy needs to be in place for both China and Russia. They can and will and probably are returning the favor.

The iron curtain is back - bigger and "better" than ever, or prudence dictates that it should be.
And yes, it sucks. It sucks a lot. One wishes one could break bread with authoritarians without the risk of getting poisoned, but not in this life.

That’s both the western liberal and conservative POV at this point, which evidences that the liberalism established in the 90s post Cold War has lost.

Nationalist consensus rising up, in which national security and cultural issues take the protagonist spot from the economic cooperative interests between all nations.

People who hoped Trump was just a phase and that things would return to as they were before once he left were wrong too… It was more of one of those era-shift moments that people only get to see 2 or 3 times in their lifetime.

[afleitch]

My takeaway from all of this is the "the West" needs to avoid being too economically interdependent with nations of power that might become adversarial to the breaking point.  "The West" needs to be able to quickly press the go into backup mode button, and replace whatever goods and services are cut off with adequate substitutes. In other words, if need be "the West" needs to be able effectuate a quick and not unduly painful divorce. And "the West" will need to pay a rather expensive insurance premium to get there. Both military and economic preparedness needs to be in play. To cut to the chase, the above policy needs to be in place for both China and Russia. They can and will and probably are returning the favor.

I disagree. Interdependency is still good, we just can't be AS dependent as we currently are on something as crucial as energy supply from potentially hostile authoritarian regimes. If this war blows over and there is regime change in Russia, we should definitely reengage with Russia trade-wise, but still work towards energy independence.

It's more than just energy independence. The West has effectively ceded it's manufacturing output and a sizable chunk of it's food production to either adversarial countries or countries that exploit their own people. And we posture by engaging in a bigger moral panic about exploitation over a westerner making a quick buck on OnlyFans rather than have a conversation about those working for pennies in a dye factory in Bangladesh to produce the clothes we buy for a few dollars.

We have to wean ourselves off cheap and easy 'throwaway' capitalism as well as cheap fuel. Which is harder to do when people under forty can only participate in 'throwaway' capitalism because they can't invest in permanent investments like owning their own home.

[pppolitics]

According to estimates, Russia has 175k to 190k troops in Ukraine.

If 26,014 are either killed or injured, that's 13.69% to 14.87% of the total number of troops in Ukraine.

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1506000982366371847

[President Johnson]

According to estimates, Russia has 175k to 190k troops in Ukraine.

If 2,6014 are either killed or injured, that's 13.69% to 14.87% of the total number of troops in Ukraine.

You may correct that comma? Anyway, I skeptical the number is actually this high, though they certainly lost way more than the US did in 18 years in Iraq. A massive failure for a so-called "superpower".

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The interesting thing about the response of the Israeli government to the war isn't that it has tried to remain comparatively neutral, it is that this comparative neutrality leans decidedly more in the Ukrainian direction than the Russian one and that this is largely due to public pressure. If you'd told me a few years ago that this would ever be the case I would have assumed that you were relaying the contents of a fever dream to me. I'm reasonable sure that this would not be the case if Ukrainian government were run by Ukrainian ethnic nationalists: it is interesting how the fact that it isn't has changed so much, both internationally and domestically.

[compucomp]

My takeaway from all of this is the "the West" needs to avoid being too economically interdependent with nations of power that might become adversarial to the breaking point.  "The West" needs to be able to quickly press the go into backup mode button, and replace whatever goods and services are cut off with adequate substitutes. In other words, if need be "the West" needs to be able effectuate a quick and not unduly painful divorce. And "the West" will need to pay a rather expensive insurance premium to get there. Both military and economic preparedness needs to be in play. To cut to the chase, the above policy needs to be in place for both China and Russia. They can and will and probably are returning the favor.

The iron curtain is back - bigger and "better" than ever, or prudence dictates that it should be.
And yes, it sucks. It sucks a lot. One wishes one could break bread with authoritarians without the risk of getting poisoned, but not in this life.

I would say that from China's perspective the opposite is also true, China needs to reduce its dependence on the West and all Western institutions. Russia has learned this lesson harshly, and while China is better situated to deal with Western sanctions and to retaliate effectively, there's no question in China's current state they would hurt.

I think both sides will find ways to manage and get by, but there's no question that purposely short-circuiting the Law of Comparative Advantage will leave both sides poorer. Too bad the Americans demand a unipolar world and that its way of doing things is the only acceptable way, otherwise this could have been avoided. There is no intrinsic reason why China and the USA should hate each other.

[pppolitics]

According to estimates, Russia has 175k to 190k troops in Ukraine.

If 2,6014 are either killed or injured, that's 13.69% to 14.87% of the total number of troops in Ukraine.

You may correct that comma? Anyway, I skeptical the number is actually this high, though they certainly lost way more than the US did in 18 years in Iraq. A massive failure for a so-called "superpower".

Western intelligence estimates say it is likely that at least 7,000 Russians have been killed and as many as 20,000 injured, and assuming that the combat forces are bearing the brunt of the casualties, that could mean up to a third of the main combat force is now out of action, Lee said.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/20/russia-ukraine-military-offensive/

[President Johnson]

According to estimates, Russia has 175k to 190k troops in Ukraine.

If 2,6014 are either killed or injured, that's 13.69% to 14.87% of the total number of troops in Ukraine.

You may correct that comma? Anyway, I skeptical the number is actually this high, though they certainly lost way more than the US did in 18 years in Iraq. A massive failure for a so-called "superpower".

Western intelligence estimates say it is likely that at least 7,000 Russians have been killed and as many as 20,000 injured, and assuming that the combat forces are bearing the brunt of the casualties, that could mean up to a third of the main combat force is now out of action, Lee said.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/20/russia-ukraine-military-offensive/

Fair enough, I thoight these were Ukrainian figures, which tend to be higher.

[Torie]

My takeaway from all of this is the "the West" needs to avoid being too economically interdependent with nations of power that might become adversarial to the breaking point.  "The West" needs to be able to quickly press the go into backup mode button, and replace whatever goods and services are cut off with adequate substitutes. In other words, if need be "the West" needs to be able effectuate a quick and not unduly painful divorce. And "the West" will need to pay a rather expensive insurance premium to get there. Both military and economic preparedness needs to be in play. To cut to the chase, the above policy needs to be in place for both China and Russia. They can and will and probably are returning the favor.

The iron curtain is back - bigger and "better" than ever, or prudence dictates that it should be.
And yes, it sucks. It sucks a lot. One wishes one could break bread with authoritarians without the risk of getting poisoned, but not in this life.

That’s both the western liberal and conservative POV at this point, which evidences that the liberalism established in the 90s post Cold War has lost.

Nationalist consensus rising up, in which national security and cultural issues take the protagonist spot from the economic cooperative interests between all nations.

People who hoped Trump was just a phase and that things would return to as they were before once he left were wrong too… It was more of one of those era-shift moments that people only get to see 2 or 3 times in their lifetime.

I think that is right. It caused a tack in my thinking. Actions among "advanced" countries with well educated populations that yes, to a substantial extent embraced the market economy with private entrepreneurs, can still do things that in my world make zero sense and are incredibly evil and destructive to all.  For me, it was quite the cold shower. And even up to the point of invasion, while I expected the invasion, and believed Putin did want to annex the country, I was incapable of imagining with the whole world watching, that Putin, with nobody seemingly there to deflect him, would be willing to go the total destruction and genocide route, and God knows what else, when Ukraine displayed surprising resistance and resilience.

Part of the problem is that those most willing to chase power are all too frequently precisely the ones that should never hold it. So we get too many sociopaths with power. I don't know a good way to prevent that, even under the best of circumstances. Heck, America elected Trump, whom I have read planned in his second term to exit NATO. Pretty scary huh?

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/WarintheFuture/status/1505991365217628160?cxt=HHwWgMDR6dzKre...

[Omega21]

My takeaway from all of this is the "the West" needs to avoid being too economically interdependent with nations of power that might become adversarial to the breaking point.  "The West" needs to be able to quickly press the go into backup mode button, and replace whatever goods and services are cut off with adequate substitutes. In other words, if need be "the West" needs to be able effectuate a quick and not unduly painful divorce. And "the West" will need to pay a rather expensive insurance premium to get there. Both military and economic preparedness needs to be in play. To cut to the chase, the above policy needs to be in place for both China and Russia. They can and will and probably are returning the favor.

I disagree. Interdependency is still good, we just can't be AS dependent as we currently are on something as crucial as energy supply from potentially hostile authoritarian regimes. If this war blows over and there is regime change in Russia, we should definitely reengage with Russia trade-wise, but still work towards energy independence.

It's more than just energy independence. The West has effectively ceded it's manufacturing output and a sizable chunk of it's food production to either adversarial countries or countries that exploit their own people. And we posture by engaging in a bigger moral panic about exploitation over a westerner making a quick buck on OnlyFans rather than have a conversation about those working for pennies in a dye factory in Bangladesh to produce the clothes we buy for a few dollars.

We have to wean ourselves off cheap and easy 'throwaway' capitalism as well as cheap fuel. Which is harder to do when people under forty can only participate in 'throwaway' capitalism because they can't invest in permanent investments like owning their own home.

Also, keep in mind that Nixon ended workers receiving their share of productivity increase when he terminated the gold standard in the 70s.

I don't think we'll ever go back, and that's something you would need if you want people to stop participating in "throwaway capitalism"

[Torie]

My takeaway from all of this is the "the West" needs to avoid being too economically interdependent with nations of power that might become adversarial to the breaking point.  "The West" needs to be able to quickly press the go into backup mode button, and replace whatever goods and services are cut off with adequate substitutes. In other words, if need be "the West" needs to be able effectuate a quick and not unduly painful divorce. And "the West" will need to pay a rather expensive insurance premium to get there. Both military and economic preparedness needs to be in play. To cut to the chase, the above policy needs to be in place for both China and Russia. They can and will and probably are returning the favor.

The iron curtain is back - bigger and "better" than ever, or prudence dictates that it should be.
And yes, it sucks. It sucks a lot. One wishes one could break bread with authoritarians without the risk of getting poisoned, but not in this life.

I would say that from China's perspective the opposite is also true, China needs to reduce its dependence on the West and all Western institutions. Russia has learned this lesson harshly, and while China is better situated to deal with Western sanctions and to retaliate effectively, there's no question in China's current state they would hurt.

I think both sides will find ways to manage and get by, but there's no question that purposely short-circuiting the Law of Comparative Advantage will leave both sides poorer. Too bad the Americans demand a unipolar world and that its way of doing things is the only acceptable way, otherwise this could have been avoided. There is no intrinsic reason why China and the USA should hate each other.

There is no rational reason why any of these nations should hate each other in any objective sense. But there is a more than nominal risk that such nations can become very dangerous such that "excessive' interdependence becomes imprudent.

I think you are beating a dead horse with the unipolar bit. Notice that Biden seems tied to the hip with NATO? Given that Russia has gone bad for the foreseeable future, and India is more unpredictable these days, and China's economy will not so long from now be as powerful as the US, "the West" needs to hang together, or it will hang separately. There is no room for hubris here by anyone, but particularly the US. It is very sobering. This assumes that "the West" believes it has a way of life and culture and values that it deems worth saving.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/mjluxmoore/status/1505973168938307584

The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation refutes the information of the Ukrainian General Staff about the allegedly large-scale losses of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine. According to the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, during the special operation in Ukraine, the Russian Armed Forces lost 9861 people killed, 16153 people were injured.

Wait, the Russians are claiming this? Doesn’t Russia always report hilariously low casualties? If this is there number either it is a typo or they are allot worse off than we though.

Yes. The article said that the Ukraine claimed 14.7k killed while Russia disputed the number and said that the actual number is 9861.

According to preliminary estimates of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, from the beginning of the special military operation in Ukraine to March 20, the Russian Armed Forces lost 96 aircraft, 118 helicopters and 14.7 thousand military troops.

The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation refutes the information of the Ukrainian General Staff about the allegedly large-scale losses of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine. According to the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, during the special operation in Ukraine, the Russian Armed Forces lost 9861 people killed, 16153 people were injured.

The numbers have now been removed from the website entirely.

Is this a journalistic freudian slip, where they accidentally published the truth?

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1505654899777937413?s=20&t=6Tc_y9I9...

https://twitter.com/mircea_einstein/status/1505659308486365184?s=20&t=6Tc_y9...

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/mjluxmoore/status/1505973168938307584

The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation refutes the information of the Ukrainian General Staff about the allegedly large-scale losses of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine. According to the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, during the special operation in Ukraine, the Russian Armed Forces lost 9861 people killed, 16153 people were injured.

Wait, the Russians are claiming this? Doesn’t Russia always report hilariously low casualties? If this is there number either it is a typo or they are allot worse off than we though.

Yes. The article said that the Ukraine claimed 14.7k killed while Russia disputed the number and said that the actual number is 9861.

According to preliminary estimates of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, from the beginning of the special military operation in Ukraine to March 20, the Russian Armed Forces lost 96 aircraft, 118 helicopters and 14.7 thousand military troops.

The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation refutes the information of the Ukrainian General Staff about the allegedly large-scale losses of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine. According to the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, during the special operation in Ukraine, the Russian Armed Forces lost 9861 people killed, 16153 people were injured.

The numbers have now been removed from the website entirely.

Is this a journalistic freudian slip, where they accidentally published the truth?

probably

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/mjluxmoore/status/1505973168938307584

The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation refutes the information of the Ukrainian General Staff about the allegedly large-scale losses of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine. According to the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, during the special operation in Ukraine, the Russian Armed Forces lost 9861 people killed, 16153 people were injured.

Wait, the Russians are claiming this? Doesn’t Russia always report hilariously low casualties? If this is there number either it is a typo or they are allot worse off than we though.

Yes. The article said that the Ukraine claimed 14.7k killed while Russia disputed the number and said that the actual number is 9861.

According to preliminary estimates of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, from the beginning of the special military operation in Ukraine to March 20, the Russian Armed Forces lost 96 aircraft, 118 helicopters and 14.7 thousand military troops.

The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation refutes the information of the Ukrainian General Staff about the allegedly large-scale losses of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine. According to the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, during the special operation in Ukraine, the Russian Armed Forces lost 9861 people killed, 16153 people were injured.

The numbers have now been removed from the website entirely.

Is this a journalistic freudian slip, where they accidentally published the truth?

probably

So the Russia Army has literally been decimated.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/mjluxmoore/status/1505973168938307584

The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation refutes the information of the Ukrainian General Staff about the allegedly large-scale losses of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine. According to the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, during the special operation in Ukraine, the Russian Armed Forces lost 9861 people killed, 16153 people were injured.

Wait, the Russians are claiming this? Doesn’t Russia always report hilariously low casualties? If this is there number either it is a typo or they are allot worse off than we though.

Yes. The article said that the Ukraine claimed 14.7k killed while Russia disputed the number and said that the actual number is 9861.

According to preliminary estimates of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, from the beginning of the special military operation in Ukraine to March 20, the Russian Armed Forces lost 96 aircraft, 118 helicopters and 14.7 thousand military troops.

The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation refutes the information of the Ukrainian General Staff about the allegedly large-scale losses of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine. According to the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, during the special operation in Ukraine, the Russian Armed Forces lost 9861 people killed, 16153 people were injured.

The numbers have now been removed from the website entirely.

Is this a journalistic freudian slip, where they accidentally published the truth?

probably

So the Russia Army has literally been decimated.

9861 is 1% of the entire Russian armed forces (excluding reserves). That's an entire division dead in only 3 weeks. That's absolutely unsustainable. Combined with the number of injured in the article, that's 2.5% of Russia's manpower out of action. If true, I can see why the Russians are bringing in troops from all over (the Far East, South Ossetia, more Chechens, etc.). It also explains why that Black Sea Fleet deputy commander was in Mariupol: they're having to use naval infantry in urban warfare...which isn't ideal.

Certainly Russia has millions of men that can be conscripted...excuse me "contracted", but they won't be motivated highly trained professionals like many of the men Russia has lost (VDV, Spetsnaz, pilots, etc.). Furthermore, they have to be trained at least somewhat first if they're going to be of any value in combat. That will take time...and Russia doesn't have time.

[Hindsight was 2020]

And also a reminder that Russia has suffered these causalities without a major urban fight yet

[Omega21]

And also a reminder that Russia has suffered these causalities without a major urban fight yet

Tbf Mariupol is a major urban fight with a lot of men on both sides fighting for a city of 500,000