Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The US ought to read this as China using the Russians to test their own missiles and other technology.

[Storr]

Updated list of Russian high ranking officer casualties, now with a second page. Yesterday alone the Russians lost a major general, a major, and three captains. In just the past three days, the Russians have had 10 high ranking officers killed in action.

https://twitter.com/4ukraine834614/status/1502804855471185925?s=20&t=Lu6FIHX...

Another Russian major killed:

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1502970375084421127?s=20&t=BG144LyZvwW9CA...

Another Russian colonel killed (on the 6th, evidently):

<tweet snip>

The losses really are piling up for the Russians:

https://twitter.com/4ukraine834614/status/1503496313232662532?s=20&t=AC3fKGh...

there are some deaths reported in media not yet included on the list, like Captain Alexey Glushchak of the GRU (Russian military intelligence) and others not included on the above list, but on this one I found on reddit:

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/russia-gru-general-killed-ukraine-war-vladimir-putin-b987888.html?utm_source=taboola&utm_medium=Feed

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/te0dt3/list_of_killedcaptured_russian_officers_march_14/

[Torie]

Suck it Solovyov!

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1503450891646550020?s=20&t=g9OR7f5E...

Is there a text in English out there to share? When does Russia plan to annex the Hudson Valley?

[It’s so Joever]

The lack of changes in the frontlines recently really suggests Russia is preparing for another big push and is just focusing on defense while it reorganizes. Expect large swaths of territory to fall rapidly once this push begins. It’s clear Russia has learned from their mistakes.

[brucejoel99]

The lack of changes in the frontlines recently really suggests Russia is preparing for another big push and is just focusing on defense while it reorganizes. Expect large swaths of territory to fall rapidly once this push begins. It’s clear Russia has learned from their mistakes.

Are we talking about the same Russian military? The one that's run out of enough food to ask the Chinese for their MREs?

[sguberman]

There are still some brave people in Russia.
https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1503446891014537222

I don't know if I believe this but this thread is certainly interesting
https://twitter.com/grishchukroma/status/1503500141159985157
edit:
Yeah I am leaning towards this was set up
https://twitter.com/JpnsGd/status/1503515038006534147
edit2: Ok so apparently the Instagram post was fake but I am still suspicious

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The lack of changes in the frontlines recently really suggests Russia is preparing for another big push and is just focusing on defense while it reorganizes. Expect large swaths of territory to fall rapidly once this push begins. It’s clear Russia has learned from their mistakes.

It's clear it's trying to learn. We won't know until they renew their offensive.

[Person Man]

Suck it Solovyov!

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1503450891646550020?s=20&t=g9OR7f5E...

Is there a text in English out there to share? When does Russia plan to annex the Hudson Valley?

They all should die in prison.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Once again Estonia is literally the best country on Earth https://www.foxnews.com/politics/russia-ukraine-nato-country-estonia-calls-for-immediate-establishment-of-no-fly-zone

It's not that hard for their Parliament to call for a no-fly zone they'll have almost zero role in bringing about. Estonia has actually given a decent amount of military aid relative to most of Europe/considering their size, but further support (beyond pushing for harsher EU-wide sanctions etc.) would be most practical in the form of more humanitarian aid and weapons (in terms of weapons, especially the ex-Soviet stuff Western Europe and the US cannot supply)* and/or offering to host Polish jets before they're transferred to Ukraine. Indeed, if they think the risk of a no-fly zone is worth bearing, they shouldn't flinch at the prospect of transferring unarmed jets.

My point is that this is mostly a virtue signal rather than real support.

*Estonia has a pretty limited amount of this. They've sent some D-30 howitzers to Ukraine, but still have most of these, and their military is phasing them out. They also have some Soviet APCs and really old AA/machine guns that Ukraine uses.

[Storr]

There are still some brave people in Russia.
https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1503446891014537222

I don't know if I believe this but this thread is certainly interesting
https://twitter.com/grishchukroma/status/1503500141159985157
edit:
Yeah I am leaning towards this was set up
https://twitter.com/JpnsGd/status/1503515038006534147
edit2: Ok so apparently the Instagram post was fake but I am still suspicious

I don't think this video is a fake??

https://twitter.com/mdmitri91/status/1503491739671277581?s=20&t=N92iG2r9NFk7...

[Storr]

Suck it Solovyov!

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1503450891646550020?s=20&t=g9OR7f5E...

Is there a text in English out there to share? When does Russia plan to annex the Hudson Valley?

https://twitter.com/mdmitri91/status/1503511061173055494?s=20&t=N92iG2r9NFk7...

[Storr]

Suck it Solovyov!

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1503450891646550020?s=20&t=g9OR7f5E...

Is there a text in English out there to share? When does Russia plan to annex the Hudson Valley?

<tweet snip>

Evidently Grozev shared the wrong clip and this is the umm....nutty one:

https://twitter.com/OctopusFractal/status/1503454261472112640?s=20&t=N92iG2r...

https://twitter.com/Demosthes/status/1503523490145574915?s=20&t=N92iG2r9NFk7...

[Frodo]

China Signals Disinterest in Providing Weapons to Russia for Brutal Ukraine Campaign
Beijing appears eager to distance itself from Russian President Vladimir Putin’s bloody war in Ukraine despite months of warmer relations between the two powers.

[Torie]

Thank you Storr for the translation, and for being you as this tragedy unfolds, and day by day gets ever more horrific, and the odds of the unimaginable tick up.

[NOVA Green]

Is it just me or has it been exceptionally quiet here since I lasted posted?

Haven't really had a chance to really follow much news reporting today at work, but looks like we have the following items discussed / updated from the "Atlas Hive":

   1.) Germany to purchase F-35 Fighter Jets
   2.) India-Russia Crude Oil Negotiations
   3.) Slovakia "possibly discussing" transfer of S-300 Rocket Systems to Ukraine
   4.) Chinese Professors article on possible outcomes / impacts of the War from a Chinese
        perspective (As well as several other related articles linked)
   5.) Ukrainian Naval Fleet Status Update
   6.) Russian Military leader saying the "war is not going as well as we had hoped for"
   7.) Chinese-Russian Military-Economic Assistance Related items
   8.) Alleged claim that on one day Russia lost (700) soldiers
   9.) Russian protestor upstaging a Pro-Putin propaganda news anchor live on TV
  10.) Estonia calling for "an immediate no fly zone"
  11.) Finland NATO polling update
  12.) Russian casualty updates

There were a few other misc updates.... but think this pretty much covers the wrap?

OK--- I'll see if there is anything else of interest I can find to contribute for today's updates.
 

[Torie]

China Signals Disinterest in Providing Weapons to Russia for Brutal Ukraine Campaign
Beijing appears eager to distance itself from Russian President Vladimir Putin’s bloody war in Ukraine despite months of warmer relations between the two powers.

That is a relief, but the headline writer does not know the difference between disinterest and uninterest. I hate when that happens. It bothers me even more than therefore and therefor being misused.

I guess maybe that "intense" 7 hour meeting might have done some good.

[Person Man]

Suck it Solovyov!

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1503450891646550020?s=20&t=g9OR7f5E...

Is there a text in English out there to share? When does Russia plan to annex the Hudson Valley?

<tweet snip>

Evidently Grozev shared the wrong clip and this is the umm....nutty one:

https://twitter.com/OctopusFractal/status/1503454261472112640?s=20&t=N92iG2r...

https://twitter.com/Demosthes/status/1503523490145574915?s=20&t=N92iG2r9NFk7...

He must like glowing in the dark.

[Storr]

Interesting point about how this war could affect the Russian military's ability to retain enough people to fill the ranks. It would make sense it could be forced to more heavily rely on conscripts if fewer soldiers decide to sign contracts. The military might return to the 24 month service requirement, which was reduced to 12 months in 2007.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1503434251139788810?s=20&t=eh2rX7aT2I1X1M...

[2952-0-0]

Interesting point about how this war could affect the Russian military's ability to retain enough people to fill the ranks. It would make sense it could be forced to more heavily rely on conscripts if fewer soldiers decide to sign contracts. The military might return to the 24 month service requirement, which was reduced to 12 months in 2007.

No problem. Putin will "convince" conscripts to sign service contracts.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Is it just me or has it been exceptionally quiet here since I lasted posted?

Haven't really had a chance to really follow much news reporting today at work, but looks like we have the following items discussed / updated from the "Atlas Hive":

   1.) Germany to purchase F-35 Fighter Jets
   2.) India-Russia Crude Oil Negotiations
   3.) Slovakia "possibly discussing" transfer of S-300 Rocket Systems to Ukraine
   4.) Chinese Professors article on possible outcomes / impacts of the War from a Chinese
        perspective (As well as several other related articles linked)
   5.) Ukrainian Naval Fleet Status Update
   6.) Russian Military leader saying the "war is not going as well as we had hoped for"
   7.) Chinese-Russian Military-Economic Assistance Related items
   8.) Alleged claim that on one day Russia lost (700) soldiers
   9.) Russian protestor upstaging a Pro-Putin propaganda news anchor live on TV
  10.) Estonia calling for "an immediate no fly zone"
  11.) Finland NATO polling update
  12.) Russian casualty updates

There were a few other misc updates.... but think this pretty much covers the wrap?

OK--- I'll see if there is anything else of interest I can find to contribute for today's updates.
 

Do your best!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Interesting point about how this war could affect the Russian military's ability to retain enough people to fill the ranks. It would make sense it could be forced to more heavily rely on conscripts if fewer soldiers decide to sign contracts. The military might return to the 24 month service requirement, which was reduced to 12 months in 2007.

No problem. Putin will "convince" conscripts to sign service contracts.

This is already widespread and is the only reason why they hit the 2/3rds contract soldiers target in the first place...

[Storr]

Interesting point about how this war could affect the Russian military's ability to retain enough people to fill the ranks. It would make sense it could be forced to more heavily rely on conscripts if fewer soldiers decide to sign contracts. The military might return to the 24 month service requirement, which was reduced to 12 months in 2007.

No problem. Putin will "convince" conscripts to sign service contracts.

You do have a point. My curiosity was aroused and while looking at information about Soviet-era conscription I learned that evidently from 1939-55 the term of service in the Soviet Navy was five years!

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Did I miss something today? Folks seem to be getting more grim about the possibility of nuclear war since this afternoon (Forgive me Torie if that's not what you were implying):

Thank you Storr for the translation, and for being you as this tragedy unfolds, and day by day gets ever more horrific, and the odds of the unimaginable tick up.

And from another thread:

Nuclear War is probably the endgame here, if only because Putin isn't going to stop in Ukraine. He's going to invade a NATO nation, possibly the Baltic States, possibly Poland, and that's going to trigger a massive nuclear exchange.

Nuclear war is the most likely outcome at this point.

[emailking]

I think everybody thinks the war is getting so bloody and likely to get worse that NATO will get involved, which obviously raises the nuclear stakes quite a bit. But I trust Biden to hold the line on this. No direct attack on Russian forces unless they attack a NATO member.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I think everybody thinks the war is getting so bloody and likely to get worse that NATO will get involved, which obviously raises the nuclear stakes quite a bit. But I trust Biden to hold the line on this. No direct attack on Russian forces unless they attack a NATO member.

I guess. I wonder if this "Will they or won't they?" conundrum with Chinese assistance is freaking out some folks as well.

I don't know. I just don't think the chances of nuclear armageddon have increased all that much, if at all, since yesterday. Even with whatever's happening with China & NATO