Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Aurelius]

oh ffs

https://twitter.com/mfa_russia/status/1501292668013404163

Guess who they borrowed that line from, that's right, the Americans! Where did those Iraqi WMD's end up anyway? Those trailers from those grainy satellite photos that were supposed to be bioweapons labs? The supposed Saddam deal to buy uranium from Africa that turned out to be a fabrication?

You're not going to find hardly anyone defending the Iraq war here.

[Storr]

I was wondering why the Polish government would have gone public with a plan to send their MiG-29s to Ukraine. Then I saw this video and remembered just how unpopular Russia is with the Polish people:

https://twitter.com/jelle_simons/status/1501260045505466368?s=20&t=ESyOukgGg...

Note: I also think there's at least some aspect of creating a distraction for the actual transfer of the planes. Poland announces they will send them via Ramstein Air Base in Germany, the news spreads all over. A few hours later the Pentagon declines the Polish offer, saying it "raises serious concerns for the entire NATO alliance". Now everybody's focused on the "failure" of that plan.

I can easily imagine that while all this public drama is occurring, the planes are being repainted and will be loaded on trucks tonight at 2am headed for the Ukrainian border. (Or at least preparations are being made for the transfer: arranging the replacement F-16s, finding heavy trucks to carry the MiG-29s to Ukraine, etc.)

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I was wondering why the Polish government would have gone public with a plan to send their MiG-29s to Ukraine. Then I saw this video and remembered just how unpopular Russia is with the Polish people:

https://twitter.com/jelle_simons/status/1501260045505466368?s=20&t=ESyOukgGg...
Note: I also think there's at least some aspect of creating a distraction for the actual transfer of the planes. Poland announces they will send them via Ramstein Air Base in Germany, the news spreads all over. A few hours later the Pentagon declines the Polish offer, saying it "raises serious concerns for the entire NATO alliance". Now everybody's focused on the "failure" of that plan.

I can easily imagine that while all this public drama is occurring, the planes are being repainted and will be loaded on trucks tonight at 2am headed for the Ukrainian border. (Or at least preparations are being made for the transfer: arranging the replacement F-16s, finding heavy trucks carry the MiG-29s to Ukraine, etc.)

It’s easy to imagine, but unlikely to be the reality given how long and publicly this drama has gone on.

Use Occam’s razor.  If NATO was that organised, it would have been done before all of social media had spent two weeks speculating about it.

[Person Man]

I was wondering why the Polish government would have gone public with a plan to send their MiG-29s to Ukraine. Then I saw this video and remembered just how unpopular Russia is with the Polish people:

https://twitter.com/jelle_simons/status/1501260045505466368?s=20&t=ESyOukgGg...

Note: I also think there's at least some aspect of creating a distraction for the actual transfer of the planes. Poland announces they will send them via Ramstein Air Base in Germany, the news spreads all over. A few hours later the Pentagon declines the Polish offer, saying it "raises serious concerns for the entire NATO alliance". Now everybody's focused on the "failure" of that plan.

I can easily imagine that while all this public drama is occurring, the planes are being repainted and will be loaded on trucks tonight at 2am headed for the Ukrainian border. (Or at least preparations are being made for the transfer: arranging the replacement F-16s, finding heavy trucks carry the MiG-29s to Ukraine, etc.)

Chocolate Thunder!

[Storr]

I was wondering why the Polish government would have gone public with a plan to send their MiG-29s to Ukraine. Then I saw this video and remembered just how unpopular Russia is with the Polish people:

https://twitter.com/jelle_simons/status/1501260045505466368?s=20&t=ESyOukgGg...
Note: I also think there's at least some aspect of creating a distraction for the actual transfer of the planes. Poland announces they will send them via Ramstein Air Base in Germany, the news spreads all over. A few hours later the Pentagon declines the Polish offer, saying it "raises serious concerns for the entire NATO alliance". Now everybody's focused on the "failure" of that plan.

I can easily imagine that while all this public drama is occurring, the planes are being repainted and will be loaded on trucks tonight at 2am headed for the Ukrainian border. (Or at least preparations are being made for the transfer: arranging the replacement F-16s, finding heavy trucks carry the MiG-29s to Ukraine, etc.)

It’s easy to imagine, but unlikely to be the reality given how long and publicly this drama has gone on.

Use Occam’s razor.  If NATO was that organised, it would have been done before all of social media had spent two weeks speculating about it.

I'm hoping (but with how Poland bungled their "secret" plan, I'm skeptical) NATO will try something like the US did in 1940 where crewless planes without national markings headed for Britain were pulled across the border by trucks and horses in Canada

https://medium.com/lessons-from-history/why-britain-pulled-aircraft-with-horses-and-trucks-ddd2dbd2aaa4

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1501357706027933698

[NOVA Green]

Looks like Mother Nature could make things a bit ugly for the massive Russian convoy from Newsweek earlier today:

A severe cold snap could push Russian troops to desert a convoy that has been stalled outside of Kyiv for the last few days, a military advisor to Ukraine's armed forces has said.

Arctic air moving through Russia and Ukraine will combine with an easterly wind to make the temperature feel as cold as minus 20 by Wednesday, according to forecasts.

Russian troops are expected to find these conditions tough as they remain stuck in a column around 20 miles outside of the Ukrainian capital that has barely moved since last week.

"A metal tank is just a fridge at night if you are not running the engine," said Glen Grant, a senior defense expert at the Baltic Security Foundation who advised Ukraine on its military reform."

"The cold weather is going to demoralize troops even further and will create even more refrigerators," he told Newsweek.

Grant said that the weather will add to the logistical problems Russian troops already face and he expects many to simply quit their vehicles.

"The boys won't wait. They will get out, start walking to the forest, and give themselves up," he said.

"You just can't sit around and wait because if you are in the vehicle you are waiting to be killed. They are not stupid."

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine-kyiv-convoy-putin-1685806

I recall reading an article earlier today where an analyst was speculating that fuel trucks stuck at the back might be part of the logistical issues with the convoy.

Here are some snippets from an Economist article regarding the convoy from a few days back:

Why a huge Russian convoy remains stalled north of Kyiv

....

Perhaps the most important reason for this is logistics. Russian fuel, engineering and other supply units have struggled to keep up with frontline forces, leaving vehicles stranded on the road. Video footage shows Ukrainian tractors gleefully towing away what are purported to be abandoned Russian air-defence systems and armoured vehicles.

In an article published on the War on the Rocks website in November, Alex Vershinin, an American army officer, noted that Russian units are far heavier on artillery and air-defences than their nato counterparts. This makes logistics tougher: a unit that fires 4,000 shells a day needs 50 trucks a day to replenish. Russia’s army would not have enough trucks to “meet its logistic requirement” more than 90 miles beyond supply dumps, he concluded.

Supplying a large invasion force in a huge country would stress any army. But Russia has further woes. “The Russians seemed to have fixed themselves to roads,” observes Mick Ryan, a retired major-general who led Australia’s defence college until recently.

...

Trent Telenko, a former auditor for America’s Defence Contract Management Agency, has pointed to video footage of a Russian Pantsir-s1 air-defence system that was stuck in the mud and captured by Ukraine. Tires, he notes, need to be periodically moved to exercise the inflation system and to avoid exposing any one part to continuous sunlight.

That Russian forces have not done this basic maintenance may reflect endemic corruption. In 2019 Russian military prosecutors said that losses from corruption had spiralled and exceeded 7bn roubles (around $109m at the time). Neglected tires will fail to get through mud and must stick to paved paths. Images of the convoy show trucks crowded on the road, three abreast, preventing anything from passing. In some cases, Russian soldiers have even punched holes in their fuel tanks to avoid facing combat. Western officials say that the biggest problem is not that Ukraine has blown up key bridges, but that Russian bridging units have been unable to get through the congestion to build new ones.

....

 

https://www.economist.com/europe/2022/03/04/why-a-huge-russian-convoy-remains-stalled-north-of-kyiv

[WMS]

I was wondering why the Polish government would have gone public with a plan to send their MiG-29s to Ukraine. Then I saw this video and remembered just how unpopular Russia is with the Polish people:

https://twitter.com/jelle_simons/status/1501260045505466368?s=20&t=ESyOukgGg...
Note: I also think there's at least some aspect of creating a distraction for the actual transfer of the planes. Poland announces they will send them via Ramstein Air Base in Germany, the news spreads all over. A few hours later the Pentagon declines the Polish offer, saying it "raises serious concerns for the entire NATO alliance". Now everybody's focused on the "failure" of that plan.

I can easily imagine that while all this public drama is occurring, the planes are being repainted and will be loaded on trucks tonight at 2am headed for the Ukrainian border. (Or at least preparations are being made for the transfer: arranging the replacement F-16s, finding heavy trucks carry the MiG-29s to Ukraine, etc.)

It’s easy to imagine, but unlikely to be the reality given how long and publicly this drama has gone on.

Use Occam’s razor.  If NATO was that organised, it would have been done before all of social media had spent two weeks speculating about it.

I am shocked that you don’t think the U.S. could be lying about this.

[Storr]

most accurate russian bombardment

Quick stats lesson for Atlas:

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1501359659118219272?s=20&t=iRtnrE8...

[Badger]

The Chamberlain who declared war on Hitler in 1939?

Yes, the appeasement PM whose policies failed, that one.

[NOVA Green]

most accurate russian bombardment

Quick stats lesson for Atlas:

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1501359659118219272?s=20&t=iRtnrE8...

Wowzers!

Also it's not as if Russia has an unlimited supply of Cruise Missiles to start with.

From that same short NYT article, it appears that this has been a pattern with Russian missile strikes on Ukrainian Airports.

...

There is no apparent damage to the runway, similar to other airfields that have been hit by missiles in Ukraine, according to Steven De La Fuente from the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, who analyzed the image, which was collected by Capella Space, a commercial U.S. company.

“We have noticed very little damage to airport runways throughout Ukraine,” Mr. De La Fuente said. “Many airports or airfields have noticeable missile damage, however, they seem to be targeting munitions caches, fuel storage, air traffic control facilities and stationary aircraft.”

The analysis adds details to previous reporting by The Times that identified damage to both civilian and military areas of the airport.

[Red Velvet]

This entire episode of USA going to Iran and Venezuela to ask them to pump more gas and Australia asking PRC to get Russia to back down (Australia-PRC relationships have been in the dumps for a few years now) make the collective West look like a bunch of high school cheerleaders that have no problem ostracizing those they feel that are social inferiors but when they need those they have ostracizing having no problems just demanding they fall in line because they assume that everyone wants to hang out with the cheerleaders.  I am not saying they are necessary wrong in their reading of the social positions but more of a comment on their actions and the assumptions they have of the world.

It’s kinda hilarious tbh. They see themselves like a version of Rambo but they’re way closer to a Karen.

[Badger]

WHAT?

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1501335043448442880?s=20&t=QI381JE...

The US claims to see a risk of war it is unwilling to take but wants Poland to take. I don’t believe that risk is significant, but even if it were, NATO’s article 5 would mean the US shared any Polish risk.

To me, this signals that the US is not ruling out a failure to honour article 5 (“Putin said giving planes would be an act of war, so Poland is the aggressor”). That may not be an intent - the mixed US messaging is likely a result of common miscommunications and disagreements within the natsec blob - but it is what is signalled.

I'm praying this is a false flag. If not, Biden seriously effed up.

[lfromnj]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/venezuela-agrees-to-restart-negotiations-with-u-s-backed-opposition-11646756236?mod=e2tw

Guess I was wrong, Venezuela seems really weak lmao.

Venezuela has released from prison a former American oil executive, according to multiple sources close to the detainee families and President Nicolas Maduro’s regime, a move that comes just days after Mr. Maduro met with senior U.S. officials who are considering lifting oil sanctions on Caracas as energy prices surge because of war in Ukraine.

Gustavo Cárdenas, a former executive at Citgo, the U.S. refining subsidiary of state-run oil company Petróleos de Venezuela SA, was freed on Tuesday, according to the sources.

Mr. Cárdenas, whose family lives in Houston and whose youngest son has a rare degenerative disease, was one of six Citgo executives arrested during a trip to Venezuela in November 2017 on what the U.S. government called trumped-up corruption charges. Five of the men, including Mr. Cárdenas, are naturalized U.S. citizens.

Mr. Cárdenas’s wife, Maria Elena Cárdenas, said she had not been told of his release. The release of another American held in Venezuela is in progress, said people familiar with the situation.

[Yoda]

The complete incompetence with which the fighter jets issue is being handled bu the Pentagon is literally blowing my mind. This is literally inviting escalation from Putin. Indecisiveness and weakness. The ultimately falls on Biden and he needs to step in and get it done NOW or it's on him.

[NOVA Green]

Looks like the Biden Administration is prepared to take action against Chinese Tech companies that export critical electronics to Russia per NYT 5 Hrs ago.

Chinese companies that aid Russia could face U.S. repercussions, commerce secretary warns.

Gina Raimondo, the secretary of commerce, issued a stern warning Tuesday to Chinese companies that might defy U.S. restrictions against exporting to Russia, saying the United States would cut them off from American equipment and software they need to make their products.

The Biden administration could “essentially shut” down Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation or any Chinese companies that defy U.S. sanctions by continuing to supply chips and other advanced technology to Russia, Ms. Raimondo said in an interview with The New York Times.

The United States, the European Union and other governments have issued sweeping sanctions and export controls in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The export controls prohibit the sale of certain high-tech products, including advanced semiconductors, to Russia and Belarus.

The U.S. export controls apply not just to American companies, but to companies anywhere in the world that use American software or technology to manufacture their products, which include many Chinese companies.

....

Russia “is certainly going to be courting other countries to do an end run around our sanctions and export controls,” Ms. Raimondo said. But if the United States were to find that a company like the Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation, in Shanghai, was selling its chips to Russia, “we could essentially shut SMIC down because we prevent them from using our equipment and our software,” she said.

“They have their own self-interest to not supply this stuff to Russia. So they’re not doing it out of the goodness of their heart. It would be devastating to China’s ability to produce these chips,” Ms. Raimondo added.

...

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/08/technology/chinese-companies-russia-semiconductors.html

[Splash]

Re: the Polish airplane dilemma, can someone please explain to me what line we're supposedly at risk of crossing that we haven't crossed already by sending thousands of anti-tank missiles and other munitions to Ukraine since the war started? If NATO pilots can't fly them in, simply allow the Ukrainian pilots to take a short vacation to Poland, Estonia, Germany or wherever.

[NOVA Green]

Re: the Polish airplane dilemma, can someone please explain to me what line we're supposedly at risk of crossing that we haven't crossed already by sending thousands of anti-tank missiles and other munitions to Ukraine since the war started? If NATO pilots can't fly them in, simply allow the Ukrainian pilots to take a short vacation to Poland, Estonia, Germany or wherever.

Well, I can't speak to the "crossing the line" part of the question, but I believe there have been multiple reports that there are Ukrainian pilots already in Poland (Although perhaps someone else can confirm that angle?).

[Storr]

At least I'm not the only person thinking this.

https://twitter.com/Ukrainolution/status/1501368833289777155?s=20&t=toAQLPiW...

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1501367809061830657

[Ferguson97]

Okay, we know how Atlas loves to deconstruct polls, especially polls involving US Elections, so take it for what it's worth (Although I believe they have their cross-tabs available if you follow the link on the WP article below)

Poll of Russian Public Opinion regarding the War in Ukraine:

58 percent of Russians support invasion of Ukraine, 23 percent oppose it, poll shows

About 58 percent of Russians approve of the invasion of Ukraine, while 23 percent oppose it, according to a poll conducted across Russia a week into Moscow’s full-scale assault.

Let's keep in mind that Russia is an authoritarian regime and that people are currently being arrested for peaceful assembly, so people may not feel comfortable saying they oppose the invasion even if they do.

[Torie]

At least I'm not the only person thinking this.

Yeah, that whole narrative did not hang together too well. Something is going on behind the curtain. I suspect when this story is written, quite a bit was going on behind the curtain.

[Storr]

Okay, we know how Atlas loves to deconstruct polls, especially polls involving US Elections, so take it for what it's worth (Although I believe they have their cross-tabs available if you follow the link on the WP article below)

Poll of Russian Public Opinion regarding the War in Ukraine:

58 percent of Russians support invasion of Ukraine, 23 percent oppose it, poll shows

About 58 percent of Russians approve of the invasion of Ukraine, while 23 percent oppose it, according to a poll conducted across Russia a week into Moscow’s full-scale assault.

Let's keep in mind that Russia is an authoritarian regime and that people are currently being arrested for peaceful assembly, so people may not feel comfortable saying they oppose the invasion even if they do.

My initial thought was 58% approval seems low for not even two weeks into a war in a country with an authoritarian government that has no independent media and where it's illegal to even use the word "war" instead of "special military operation".

In fact, these numbers look quite similar to American public opinion about Lyndon Johnson's handling of the War in Vietnam in December 1965:

[NOVA Green]

Literally a propaganda cope train. This thing will make for the easiest drone target of the war:

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1501241308358361095?s=20&t=c8igN6arQuO...

Yeah... I saw these reports earlier and really seems more designed for Russian domestic public consumption in between their repeats of old B&W WW II movies.

Believe the train has only something like (7) train cars it can tow, which seems to make it particularly inefficient in moving material from Crimea to the front lines, although I guess it would save the Russians on their fuel logistics scenario.

Still, I would imagine the TB2 drones have better things to do right now, and much easier for some local Ukrainian residents or Ukrainian Military Irregulars to simply sabotage the rail tracks with some IEDs and shut down that rail line for some time.   

[Badger]

At least I'm not the only person thinking this.

Yeah, that whole narrative did not hang together too well. Something is going on behind the curtain. I suspect when this story is written, quite a bit was going on behind the curtain.

That final line about  The Polish plan just not being tenable makes me very nervous and a bit pessimistic that this is all just some plausible deniability  Diplomatic double speak.