Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[CumbrianLefty]

Hell I didn’t cover Russia’s biggest issue of the fact their troop morale is low and they don’t seem to have the will or desire for this fight

Partly because they were assured until almost literally the last minute that it wasn't happening.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1500357239428763649

[GoTfan]

Word is that the Ukrainians are expecting one final all-out offensive on Kyiv.

[Meclazine for Israel]

I think y’all are underestimating Russia a bit. While yes the invasion could have gone better, they still are making important advances. Invasions don’t just happen overnight.

Same. Previous invasions of Iraq by USA in 2003 were no faster for the area covered.

Ukraine has an area of 600,000 sq.km. Iraq is only 400,000 sq. KM.

That is a monstrous amount of land to cover in an invasion.

The southern coast is the Russian's primary goal at present. If they take Odessa, Ukraine is completely cut off by sea. Then they can close the gaps.

[ugabug]

https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1500370745964351490?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%...

[ugabug]

I think y’all are underestimating Russia a bit. While yes the invasion could have gone better, they still are making important advances. Invasions don’t just happen overnight.

Same. Previous invasions of Iraq by USA in 2003 were no faster for the area covered.

Ukraine has an area of 600,000 sq.km. Iraq is only 400,000 sq. KM.

That is a monstrous amount of land to cover in an invasion.

The southern coast is the Russian's primary goal at present. If they take Odessa, Ukraine is completely cut off by sea. Then they can close the gaps.

Exactly Ukraine is a large country so how exactly is Russia planning on occupying all of it while their economy continues to fall? If a Russian "victory" is getting a Afghanistan style insurgency right on their border with a people who often times speak the same language as them and will likely be armed by neighboring countries who are sympathetic to Ukraine then i have to wonder how much of a victory that actually would be.

[CumbrianLefty]

Word is that the Ukrainians are expecting one final all-out offensive on Kyiv.

If that happens and is a failure, might that finally cause some serious moves to talks/a ceasefire?

[ugabug]

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1500412291459784704?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctw...

[CumbrianLefty]

I think y’all are underestimating Russia a bit. While yes the invasion could have gone better, they still are making important advances. Invasions don’t just happen overnight.

Same. Previous invasions of Iraq by USA in 2003 were no faster for the area covered.

Ukraine has an area of 600,000 sq.km. Iraq is only 400,000 sq. KM.

That is a monstrous amount of land to cover in an invasion.

The southern coast is the Russian's primary goal at present. If they take Odessa, Ukraine is completely cut off by sea. Then they can close the gaps.

As repeatedly pointed out, Iraq is a rubbish comparison for all sorts of reasons.

Imagine a US invasion of Mexico if you want a rough and ready parallel.

[GoTfan]

Word is that the Ukrainians are expecting one final all-out offensive on Kyiv.

If that happens and is a failure, might that finally cause some serious moves to talks/a ceasefire?

I expect the northern front will simply stalemate completely and the Russians will shift their main effort to the south.

If they are indeed planning an amphibious assault on Odessa, they had best hope it goes as planned. An opposed beach landing was hazardous at the best of times in WW2. The Russian Naval Infantry might have an even harder time of it because they've attempted to land twice and had to call it off twice, so the Ukranians are expecting them and are likely heavily dug in with all sorts of nasty things awaiting the Russians.

We have to consider what we mean by "win" here. Take Kiev and impose a set of borders and puppet gov't sure that is possible. But that isn't enough to avoid getting bled dry by resistance, especially in Western and South Western Ukraine.

Hell I don’t even know how that could result any type of ending for Russia that can be considered a “win” as they either put the puppet in and just leave but by the time the last Russian troopers leave the country that puppet president would be hanging upside down in center of Kyiv Mussolini style or as GoTfan mentioned they’ll have to keep anywhere from 400-500k soldiers in to prop the puppet up and result in a Iraq occupation style quagmire

Keep in mind that these days, every soldier in the field requires a minimum of 3-4 support workers to stay functional. Much of the numerical strength of any army is in administration. These people likely have some level of training, but they're not front-line calibre.

I'd venture to say that the true combat strength of the Russian army therefore is around 300,000-350,000, with the rest being command and control/admin.

[ugabug]

A twitter thread on Russian logistics for those who may find it interesting.

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1500213943012319252?ref_src=twsrc%5Et...

[Silent Hunter]

Russia's sheer size means that it won't be quick to move stuff in by rail or road. You're looking at 28 hours without stopping from Ufa to Minsk by car and trucks aren't as fast. 30 hours by passenger train and freight is slower.

[Torie]

Sooo, I've actually been learning some Russian lately and aided with a translator have been engaging some Russian's across platforms like VK (most effective), Instagram, Youtube, etc and have actually engaged in some pretty great conversations.

Ultimately, the only way this situation can end peacefully is if we as ordinary people stand together and say 'enough is enough' to the oligarchic mad men like Putin. No one in this hugely global world wants a repeat of the Cold War... And if we don't want that to happen we need to do our best to form friendships and relationships across the borders of countries.

If Putin can launch disinformation on our social networks and try to divide us, I can go onto Russian social networks and engage with these people one on one to prove we aren't so different after all. This is the 21st century and as Ukraine has proven, Social Media and victory in the square of world opinion can be hugely effective.

So, then, could you please translate the article linked to one post above yours for everyone? Pretty please?

https://pastebin.com/2agMRGmd

The most interesting bit to overstate it, is that "nobody" but Putin knew he was actually going to really "just do it."

I question the world famine narrative in my ignorance. At least it seems overstated to me. Food production can be ramped up quickly in a way energy production cannot. Food prices are going to go up however. It is kind of the reverse of the corn laws, which propped up prices so wheat was growing on rather steep slopes that was inefficient but still profitable given the price supports. And land used to grow corn to feed cattle (a relatively inefficient way to produce calories), can be used to grow wheat or soybeans, etc.

I wonder if we really go full bore into a cold war, how much the standard of living of the planet will decline. We had it good as defense budgets declined as a share of GDP and free trade and high tech did the reverse, and improved living standards.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

https://twitter.com/lostweapons/status/1500400072932003842
So far only Ukranian sources are reporting this so be skeptical, but if true this is major. Belarus Troops refusing to follow orders from Lukashenko, could mean an end to his dictatorship.

[ugabug]

https://twitter.com/lostweapons/status/1500400072932003842
So far only Ukranian sources are reporting this so be skeptical, but if true this is major. Belarus Troops refusing to follow orders from Lukashenko, could mean an end to his dictatorship.

Unrest in Belarus will certainly help out Russia with their supply issues in the North.

[lfromnj]

A twitter thread on Russian logistics for those who may find it interesting.

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1500213943012319252?ref_src=twsrc%5Et...

Logistics is  key to war. American trucks vs German horses are probably one of the strongest advantages the USSR had in the war over Nazi Germany.

[Logical]

Sooo, I've actually been learning some Russian lately and aided with a translator have been engaging some Russian's across platforms like VK (most effective), Instagram, Youtube, etc and have actually engaged in some pretty great conversations.

Ultimately, the only way this situation can end peacefully is if we as ordinary people stand together and say 'enough is enough' to the oligarchic mad men like Putin. No one in this hugely global world wants a repeat of the Cold War... And if we don't want that to happen we need to do our best to form friendships and relationships across the borders of countries.

If Putin can launch disinformation on our social networks and try to divide us, I can go onto Russian social networks and engage with these people one on one to prove we aren't so different after all. This is the 21st century and as Ukraine has proven, Social Media and victory in the square of world opinion can be hugely effective.

So, then, could you please translate the article linked to one post above yours for everyone? Pretty please?

https://pastebin.com/2agMRGmd

The most interesting bit to overstate it, is that "nobody" but Putin knew he was actually going to really "just do it."

I don't buy that part. It reads to me as if the FSB is trying to clean its hands from this fiasco.

[Astatine]

https://twitter.com/Kira_Yarmysh/status/1500430882615836674

Internet poll (not sure how reputable/reliable), so numbers should be treated with caution, but a trend is visible (25 Feb vs. 3 March):

- After being initially divided on what role Russia has in the war (aggressor, liberator, peacekeeper), a majority of the respondents now find that Russia is the aggressor.
- A majority thinks there will be an economic catastrophe due to the conflict.
- The number of people holding Russia responsible to at least some degree - Russia + everyone is guilty increased from 40 % to 57 %, while the number of people solely blaming Ukraine + the West shrank from 54 % to 41 %.
- The number of people stating that diplomacy and not war should be the solution increased even more.

[Omega21]

So Putin is apparently... *checks notes* libertarian now.

Get me out of this timeline, please.

https://twitter.com/RWApodcast/status/1500101769543749635

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Ukraine claims the cruise missiles launched at Vinnytsya airport today were from Transnistria, which yesterday reiterated its demand for international recognition as an independent state. If true, this would be the opening of a new front on the war.

[lfromnj]

Seems like a fighter jet transfer is coming through with Poland.

[It’s so Joever]

We have to consider what we mean by "win" here. Take Kiev and impose a set of borders and puppet gov't sure that is possible. But that isn't enough to avoid getting bled dry by resistance, especially in Western and South Western Ukraine.

I really wish folks predicting a Russian win can expand on what that actually means. Russia taking over the whole country? Just the Eastern part? I also wonder, particularly among the "Russia will win because they just will" contingent, if there's an over-emphasis on the numbers game and not even on the logistical, economical & morale problems Russia has. Every day Russia doesn't advance towards Kiev is another day where Ukraine can resupply & add defense.

At this point in time, I can't see Russia taking all of Ukraine. As you alluded to, almost all of the fighting has taken place in the pro-Russian regions on flatter, favorable terrain against a seemingly unprepared target. For the Russians, this was as close to a cakewalk as you could get for an invasion. If they're having this much trouble, how the hell are they gonna fare out west on rougher terrain & even stronger resistance.

I think this ends with a West & East Ukraine, with the main question being what side Kiev lies on (Unless it's cut in half which I can easily see)

I think in the end Russia wins much of Eastern Ukraine and the Black Sea Coast, which I would consider a win.

[Hollywood]

Russia's sheer size means that it won't be quick to move stuff in by rail or road. You're looking at 28 hours without stopping from Ufa to Minsk by car and trucks aren't as fast. 30 hours by passenger train and freight is slower.

The Russian Force isn't that large given that they are invading a country with an advanced and well-trained military.  The Russians are using about 175-250K Troops, while the Ukrainians have 250k troops, and 350K Reservists.  This is a country with advanced technology, and boasts a pretty impressive nuclear power plants and a respectable manufactured technological and chemical goods sector.  This isn't Iraq and Afghanistan in which 30-50% of the population are either F-ing blood relatives, children or pet Goats.  You can't just sweep a first-world country away with a blitzkrieg in three weeks.  

In the last two weeks, the Ukrainians were able to out-maneuver the Russians and mobilize to various covered positions and supply depots, because they know the landscapes, pitfalls, and best places to fight and ambush.  The Russians have finally put an end to the maneuverability of the Ukrainians over the last week by taking it slower than they may have anticipated, and utilizing their surveillance drones to identify the energy depots, weapons caches, as well as soldiers and positions hiding in the Civilian Population.  The Russians are now shelling and bombing Western Areas.  They will have complete control of the air-space within the next day or two, and then they will move much quicker.  

Based on Russian Intelligence Reports, War Games, and Combat in Syria/Kazakhistan, the Russian forces have updated and re-organized their battalions to cheaply and slowly gain ground superiority over areas in the field with advanced technology.  Once they take a position, they have drones, anti-aircraft, UAVs, EMP Guns, etc to hold the ground while surveilling the area with smaller drones like has been done by the Israelis in their country and Russia in Syria.  

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think y’all are underestimating Russia a bit. While yes the invasion could have gone better, they still are making important advances. Invasions don’t just happen overnight.

They have been taking heavy casualties - extremely heavy casualties according to some estimates - and morale is clearly low for this and other reasons. These things matter a lot in wars, much more than the speed of any advance, particularly in a country with only one significant natural barrier until you reach its extreme western end.

Throughout its varied incarnations, the Russian military has often been able to take casualties and still yet function at a rate that other militaries could not, but this related to the ability of the Empire (whether Romanov or Soviet) to bring new soldiers to the front or create whole new armies that opponents were unable to do for basic demographic reasons. Even so it was often a close-run thing: had the Russian army been destroyed after Borodino (as nearly happened) then that would have been terminal for the defence against Napoleon, for instance. Not only that, but sometimes things still fell through: the sheer weight of casualties suffered during the (technically successful!) Brusilov Offensive in 1916 contributed directly to the collapse of the Russian war effort and the fall of the Tsar.

The thing is, the Russian military these days does not have the capacity to do that. It has lost many of its most productive recruiting grounds (one of which was Ukraine!), the post-Soviet demographic disaster has had a predictable impact on its pool of potential recruits, it has problems in attracting genuine volunteers to become career soldiers, and the military and the state are so utterly riddled with corruption that it lacks the capacity to even enforce conscription at anything like the levels it would theoretically need.

I make no predictions as to how this will unfold (other than to say that thousands more will die and that I really cannot see how any form of military victory can now be turned into a political one: and a military victory that cannot be turned into a political victory is not a victory at all) and given the record of predictions before the invasion neither should anyone else, but certain assumptions based on the military history of Russia that a lot of people have internalised simply do not hold and it is important to be aware of this.

[Torie]

We have to consider what we mean by "win" here. Take Kiev and impose a set of borders and puppet gov't sure that is possible. But that isn't enough to avoid getting bled dry by resistance, especially in Western and South Western Ukraine.

I really wish folks predicting a Russian win can expand on what that actually means. Russia taking over the whole country? Just the Eastern part? I also wonder, particularly among the "Russia will win because they just will" contingent, if there's an over-emphasis on the numbers game and not even on the logistical, economical & morale problems Russia has. Every day Russia doesn't advance towards Kiev is another day where Ukraine can resupply & add defense.

At this point in time, I can't see Russia taking all of Ukraine. As you alluded to, almost all of the fighting has taken place in the pro-Russian regions on flatter, favorable terrain against a seemingly unprepared target. For the Russians, this was as close to a cakewalk as you could get for an invasion. If they're having this much trouble, how the hell are they gonna fare out west on rougher terrain & even stronger resistance.

I think this ends with a West & East Ukraine, with the main question being what side Kiev lies on (Unless it's cut in half which I can easily see)

I think in the end Russia wins much of Eastern Ukraine and the Black Sea Coast, which I would consider a win.

As to what you consider a "win:"

1. Do you assume in due course with Russia grabbing that part of Ukraine, that it is let back into the family of nations and trade resumes?

2. What do you assume under the "win" scenario" is the status is of the balance of Ukraine? NATO, EU, real defense treaties, nothing so that we can do this all over again, or what?

3. What under the "win" scenario will be the situation of those in Ukraine now under Russian rule. Are they pacific and resigned, guerilla warfare, expulsion, genocide, etc?

I have trouble myself conceiving of Russia by virtue of this invasion retaining a lot more Ukrainian real estate while at the same time being allowed to become economically enmeshed with the Western economies again, as opposed to being walled in with a cordon sanitaire. I just cannot. I don't think public opinion will allow that, and I think the West has taken to heart its mistakes when dealing with Putin, and with non NATO states on the front line for that matter. Maybe I am being naive and "pollyannish." I certainly hope not. I hope I am as right about that as my prediction that Putin wanted to go for the max, and annex Ukraine, and bear almost any burden to do it, till death do he part.

Al said it far more eloquently and eruditely above. I just don't think there is an outcome out there for Russia that can be considered a "win" for them, whether it retains any more real estate or not. Somewhat more likely is that everybody loses.