Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[WMS]

https://twitter.com/angry_staffer/status/1499793046673707010?s=21

https://twitter.com/markhertling/status/1499444668597215238?s=21

What the Russian hierarchy thinks about their soldiers.

https://twitter.com/gordoncorera/status/1499784845601521665?s=21

About that hierarchy in action…

https://twitter.com/samramani2/status/1499767738381877253?s=21

Well, the European Commission said so, anyway.

https://twitter.com/skyandyhughes/status/1499863194575200268?s=21

Putin’s respect for foreign press.

https://twitter.com/apolyakova/status/1499840902512132096?s=21

Putin likely to do to Kyiv what he did to Aleppo, and I bet the same assholes who cheered that are cheering this too, including those sociopathic ones who claim to “only be neutral” yet only condemn the West.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

https://twitter.com/PopulismUpdates/status/1499864150515720196?t=cnei7SItoGln3ok...

Кошка 

[Logical]

https://twitter.com/nolanwpeterson/status/1499865304326942727

He's not wrong. The only pro Russian people left in Ukraine are probably spies and infiltrators.
https://twitter.com/felix_light/status/1499695636593229827

[It’s so Joever]

Changes on the frontlines: The town of Enerhodar is completely fallen to the Russians, meanwhile, the Ukrainians have pushed the Russians out of Kharkiv for now.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Personal impressions from my way home in Berlin: First I came by the extended security zone around the Russian Embassy. Then the buildings with the Ukrainian blue-yellow banners on them. Some public buildings also use projectors insted of banners to light themselves up in blue and yellow. At least aesthetically that has a nice touch at night. Finally a Toyota with Ukranian license plates and a sh**tload of suitcases in the back parking in front of a hotel - mother, grandmother, son, from the looks of it - about to check in there. That's the moment when you ask yourself what the world has come to.

Update: Berlin Central Station has become the main point of disembarkation for Ukrainian refugees in Germany.

From what I've seen this more or less looks like it sounds.

Update:

Estimated number of Ukrainian refugees arriving in Berlin, according to the city government:

Monday - 300
Tuesday - 1,400
Wednesday - 1,700
Thursday (yesterday) - 6,000
Friday (today) - 10,000

[certified hummus supporter 🇵🇸🤝🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦]

Remember what I had said about those unencrypted Russian coms? Yeah

[Mr. Illini]

Gigantic crowd in Prague showing support for Ukraine.

I had a chance to visit this beautiful city several years ago and I remember how passionately people there spoke about their country's Velvet Revolution. I sensed a much greater appreciation for the EU and democratic values than I ever experienced in Western Europe, where these things are taken for granted.

https://twitter.com/bibalukas/status/1497934137822523397?s=20&t=FZtL0axgsqX0...

[Middle-aged Europe]

Indeed not much happening really, except that the Russians have holes in their air superiority:

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1499867586053427205

[Frodo]

The end-game for Ukraine would be to fight the Russians to a standstill, force a negotiated peace, and (under whatever terms are negotiated) have NATO troops enter the country to secure the western portion of the country against further Russian aggression.  Judging by his painful slog through eastern Ukraine, I don't think Putin has the wherewithal to take the whole country anyway. 

[WMS]

https://twitter.com/brokenpixelua/status/1499764941867433987?s=21

Reminder #86434889 of who the Good Guys™️ are.

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/brokenpixelua/status/1499764941867433987?s=21

Reminder #86434889 of who the Good Guys™️ are.

This is blatant propaganda meant to galvanize an already enraged Western public in support of Ukraine…and I love it.

[2952-0-0]

The end-game for Ukraine would be to fight the Russians to a standstill, force a negotiated peace, and (under whatever terms are negotiated) have NATO troops enter the country to secure the western portion of the country against further Russian aggression.  Judging by his painful slog through eastern Ukraine, I don't think Putin has the wherewithal to take the whole country anyway. 

Putin is going for broke. If he doesn't get something he can spin as a win, he will fall out of a window with three bullets in his skull. Also, given the pace at which Russia is returning to the Stalinist era, any part of Ukraine under Russian control will suffer an even worse iron fist, so the resistance will be horrendous. I don't see any other outcome that doesn't involve a palace coup.

Unfortunately, palace coups that occur when Russia is losing a war on its western border and when its economy is imploding don't end well. Sample being 1, of course.

[Storr]

The end-game for Ukraine would be to fight the Russians to a standstill, force a negotiated peace, and (under whatever terms are negotiated) have NATO troops enter the country to secure the western portion of the country against further Russian aggression.  Judging by his painful slog through eastern Ukraine, I don't think Putin has the wherewithal to take the whole country anyway. 

Putin is going for broke. If he doesn't get something he can spin as a win, he will fall out of a window with three bullets in his skull. Also, given the pace at which Russia is returning to the Stalinist era, any part of Ukraine under Russian control will suffer an even worse iron fist, so the resistance will be horrendous. I don't see any other outcome that doesn't involve a palace coup.

Unfortunately, palace coups that occur when Russia is losing a war on its western border and when its economy is imploding don't end well. Sample being 1, of course.

A pretty realistic goal for Putin would be "liberating" all of Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts. But I'm not sure how much of a win it would be now, after him already trying to go for all of Ukraine.

[Joe Republic]

Some Russians sharing their views. Some of these surprised me. 2.5 minutes long.

Ukraine war: 'My city's being shelled, but mum won’t believe me' https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60600487

[NOVA Green]

Just got off work not too long ago and surveyed the updates from other posters.

Briefly glanced through NYT and the WP, but haven't really done much of a deep dive anywhere.

Atlas looks like something of the following:

Military Updates: Pretty lacking from posters. Sounds like a pretty slow day on the military front? Belarus say they won't join the war? No-Fly Zone discussions in NATO?

Economic Updates: Looks like Comrade jaichind has covered some of the relevant items

Political Updates: Domestic repression continues in Russia, Swedish political parties now majority support for joining NATO, HRC Inquiry into Russia, Serbia pro Russian demos

Cultural /Media Front: Facebook, BBC, Twitter bans in Russia. Public Opinion polls in Russia and Ukraine

Humanitarian Front: A few brief updates from Germany?

Did I miss anything posted?

More than willing to post additional items not covered, but recognize now that the war is "less dramatic" and there are fewer of us on this thread, not sure if people want me to continue posting longer text based content with links to official content.

Apparently this might not be the most popular opinion in Australia, but seemed like at least a couple days ago, people here didn't mind me contributing in "my own unique way".   

[Storr]

With how terrible the Soviet/Russian Army has performed in combat operations (Afghanistan, Chechnya 1994, Georgia 2008, and the current situation). I wonder if the Soviet threat of overrunning Western Europe from East Germany during the cold war was overblown.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1499887787352502273?s=20&t=lNrSXpx...

[It’s so Joever]

Major change: The city of Konotop has surrendered. A major blow to Ukraine, the city held out despite being surrounded for a while before finally falling.

[Storr]

Remember what I had said about those unencrypted Russian coms? Yeah

Relatedly:

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1499898708988764161?s=20&t=Ll9aagoh...

[Person Man]

Remember what I had said about those unencrypted Russian coms? Yeah

Relatedly:

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1499898708988764161?s=20&t=Ll9aagoh...

Or just played something very embarrassing. That’s be funny.

[Person Man]

The end-game for Ukraine would be to fight the Russians to a standstill, force a negotiated peace, and (under whatever terms are negotiated) have NATO troops enter the country to secure the western portion of the country against further Russian aggression.  Judging by his painful slog through eastern Ukraine, I don't think Putin has the wherewithal to take the whole country anyway. 

Putin is going for broke. If he doesn't get something he can spin as a win, he will fall out of a window with three bullets in his skull. Also, given the pace at which Russia is returning to the Stalinist era, any part of Ukraine under Russian control will suffer an even worse iron fist, so the resistance will be horrendous. I don't see any other outcome that doesn't involve a palace coup.

Unfortunately, palace coups that occur when Russia is losing a war on its western border and when its economy is imploding don't end well. Sample being 1, of course.

A pretty realistic goal for Putin would be "liberating" all of Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts. But I'm not sure how much of a win it would be now, after him already trying to go for all of Ukraine.

Maybe the second one will be the charm like with Germany.

[lfromnj]

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3809437-wheat-futures-add-to-14-year-highs-up-32-so-far-this-week

Wheat Futures are up by 30% !

[lfromnj]

With how terrible the Soviet/Russian Army has performed in combat operations (Afghanistan, Chechnya 1994, Georgia 2008, and the current situation). I wonder if the Soviet threat of overrunning Western Europe from East Germany during the cold war was overblown.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1499887787352502273?s=20&t=lNrSXpx...

The German military had 18 million combined throughout the war with full mobilization. The Germans probably had a similar amount at the beginining of the war.

[Storr]

Remember what I had said about those unencrypted Russian coms? Yeah

Relatedly:

<tweet snip>

Or just played something very embarrassing. That’s be funny.

Or something really annoying, like all Alvin and the Chipmunks music or Jingle Bells sung by barking dogs.

[2952-0-0]

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3809437-wheat-futures-add-to-14-year-highs-up-32-so-far-this-week

Wheat Futures are up by 30% !

Ugh, a lot of African and Middle Eastern countries depend on Russia or Ukraine for their wheat imports. The sowing season is supposed to start in Ukraine soon, but that's not happening. Western sanctions against Russia will also disrupt Russian imports. There will have to be carve-outs for grain exports for developing countries.

[lfromnj]

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3809437-wheat-futures-add-to-14-year-highs-up-32-so-far-this-week

Wheat Futures are up by 30% !

Ugh, a lot of African and Middle Eastern countries depend on Russia or Ukraine for their wheat imports. The sowing season is supposed to start in Ukraine soon, but that's not happening. Western sanctions against Russia will also disrupt Russian imports. There will have to be carve-outs for grain exports for developing countries.

Yeah this could be really ugly, combined with other factors we may actually have a famine in certain areas