Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Astatine]

Georgia's government has sent an application for EU membership today, after Ukraine recalled the Georgian ambassador and the GD government is getting under increasing pressure for their lack of support for Ukraine. For the 6th day in a row, people protested en masse for the resignation of PM Irakli Garibashvili, who got verbally assaulted today. Former President Giorgi Margvelashvili also attended todays' protests.

The EU application seems to be a desperate attempt to not drag the ruling party's reputation even more into the sh**tter (just yesterday they stood by their plan to submit the EU application in 2024), as many now see them as traitors towards Western orientation. I don't expect Garibashvili to hold on for long, he was never popular anyway.

Georgian Dream is in the worst dilemma a ruling party could be:
- Sanction and condemn Russia more, inevitably tanking the economy, overseeing a recession and bringing peoples' anger towards them, not even considering a potential Russian reaction (ah, and their most important donor Bidzina Ivanishvili is involved a lot in business in Russia, sooo...).
- Keep their lukewarm stance, an unpopular view in a country that really distrusts Russia, is very much pro NATO/EU (~80 %) and can alienate many on a "make or break" issue that sparks strong emotions (Ukraine is seen as a strong ally among Georgians).

Big shiny object of EU membership to distract people from their position and avoid having to make painful decisions.
This is transparently self-interested, isn't it?

Oh yeah, Georgians are more or less tired of Georgian Dream at this point, it's just that even less trusted United National Movement (UNM) of Saakashvili, who's doing another hunger strike rn, on running the country. At least until now - UNM has always had a clear pro NATO/EU stance, while GD's support on this was always alleged to be less sincere by the now-opposition. And by refusing to stand with Ukrainians, GD has crossed the line for many. It's an emotional issue after all, and in a society which values standing by ones' principles and allies a lot it will be easy to frame GD as traitors now. Polling is sparse, but this might be first time in years that GD is getting into actual trouble. Plus, the opposition supports EU membership anyway, so the application won't make anyone think that GD is enthusiastically pro Western just because they were the ones who sent it.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Anyway my brain had two thoughts today.

First, Putin's really trying to sell this as his own Great Patriotic War, taking on all the trappings of the man protecting the rodina or whatever.

Second, while Putin has been able to carve out a niche for himself and is likely floundering badly in trying to get Ukraine into said niche, it's perfectly possible that in the future of Russian soft power is to align itself with European institutions. "Rebrand itself" as being in accord with Western Europe and European ideals. This would have to be post-Putin, but it could eventually allow them to undo the PR damage they've dealt themselves in this war for good and possibly become the strongest player in European institutions.

Key word is: may. Lord knows what will happen to Putin, or how Russia will orient itself over the coming decades.

If Ukraine is an EU member (potentially possible if Russia plays its hand bad enough in this war),  the Russian elite might in fact decide it has to follow its Slavic neighbors into hirtherto Western institutions in order to maintain their relevance on the world stage.

If you think either of these sound like crazy thoughts, please be blunt about it. My mind just wonders what impact this war could have on long-term geopolitical alignments.

[nicholas.slaydon]

Anyway my brain had two thoughts today.

First, Putin's really trying to sell this as his own Great Patriotic War, taking on all the trappings of the man protecting the rodina or whatever.

Second, while Putin has been able to carve out a niche for himself and is likely floundering badly in trying to get Ukraine into said niche, it's perfectly possible that in the future of Russian soft power is to align itself with European institutions. "Rebrand itself" as being in accord with Western Europe and European ideals. This would have to be post-Putin, but it could eventually allow them to undo the PR damage they've dealt themselves in this war for good and possibly become the strongest player in European institutions.

Key word is: may. Lord knows what will happen to Putin, or how Russia will orient itself over the coming decades.

If Ukraine is an EU member (potentially possible if Russia plays its hand bad enough in this war),  the Russian elite might in fact decide it has to follow its Slavic neighbors into hirtherto Western institutions in order to maintain their relevance on the world stage.

If you think either of these sound like crazy thoughts, please be blunt about it. My mind just wonders what impact this war could have on long-term geopolitical alignments.

The perfect place for Russia really would be to reorient toward a pro-European stance. There is no reason why Russia could not be member of the European Union, if they reorient away from the post-Soviet style of Russian politics and Putinism. I pray that the Russians see the madness that Putin and other post-Soviet politicians have brought their country to, and decide that model of government has gotten them nowhere, either economically, politically, or with their reputation on the world stage.

[WMS]

Anyway my brain had two thoughts today.

First, Putin's really trying to sell this as his own Great Patriotic War, taking on all the trappings of the man protecting the rodina or whatever.

Second, while Putin has been able to carve out a niche for himself and is likely floundering badly in trying to get Ukraine into said niche, it's perfectly possible that in the future of Russian soft power is to align itself with European institutions. "Rebrand itself" as being in accord with Western Europe and European ideals. This would have to be post-Putin, but it could eventually allow them to undo the PR damage they've dealt themselves in this war for good and possibly become the strongest player in European institutions.

Key word is: may. Lord knows what will happen to Putin, or how Russia will orient itself over the coming decades.

If Ukraine is an EU member (potentially possible if Russia plays its hand bad enough in this war),  the Russian elite might in fact decide it has to follow its Slavic neighbors into hirtherto Western institutions in order to maintain their relevance on the world stage.

If you think either of these sound like crazy thoughts, please be blunt about it. My mind just wonders what impact this war could have on long-term geopolitical alignments.

Putin is certainly trying to do that. That’s part of why NATO isn’t directly intervening.

I would like nothing more than for Russia to purge itself of the triune poisons of chauvinism, oligarchy, and autocracy, and finally join the community of democratic nations. I have no idea how or if that’s possible.

[2016]

Kherson is now under full Russian Control, no Ukranian Army there, completely empty Mayor confirmed via FB Post! Ukrainian Forces have relocated to Mykolaiv.

Russian Forces to set up Government similar to Luhansk & Donetsk.

Mayor pleaded not to shoot at civilians and Russian Forces accepted.

Curfew & Restrictions in place by interim Russian Govtm & Mayor.

[Adam Griffin]

Map of results of UN vote condemning Russia. China's influence in this conflict is very obvious and they are not behaving as the "neutral" party they wish others to believe (hello there, African investments!):

[WMS]

Map of results of UN vote condemning Russia. China's influence in this conflict is very obvious and they are not behaving as the "neutral" party they wish others to believe (hello there, African investments!):

Glad to see I wasn’t the only one noticing that pattern.

[lfromnj]

Map of results of UN vote condemning Russia. China's influence in this conflict is very obvious and they are not behaving as the "neutral" party they wish others to believe (hello there, African investments!):

Which Yellow countries haven't been bought off by China?

India? Vietnam?

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Map of results of UN vote condemning Russia. China's influence in this conflict is very obvious and they are not behaving as the "neutral" party they wish others to believe (hello there, African investments!):

India excepted the yellow and red on that map make a pretty good approximation of the respective Chinese and Russian SoI.

[walleye26]

I can’t help but notice that Afghanistan is green. Does that mean that THE TALIBAN are condemning the Russian invasion? The TALIBAN??

[MaxQue]

I can’t help but notice that Afghanistan is green. Does that mean that THE TALIBAN are condemning the Russian invasion? The TALIBAN??

Afghanistan, like Myanmar, new government is not recognised by UN, so it is the vote of the ambassador appointed by the previous government.

[Omega21]

Map of results of UN vote condemning Russia. China's influence in this conflict is very obvious and they are not behaving as the "neutral" party they wish others to believe (hello there, African investments!):

Listen, guys, I think we aren't being fair towards Putin.

He got the whole Balkans to agree on a conflict!!!!

Nobel Peace Prize 2023 confirmed.

[Tintrlvr]

Map of results of UN vote condemning Russia. China's influence in this conflict is very obvious and they are not behaving as the "neutral" party they wish others to believe (hello there, African investments!):

India excepted the yellow and red on that map make a pretty good approximation of the respective Chinese and Russian SoI.

And Vietnam, which hates China and is closely aligned with the US these days on most Asian matters. Not sure what they think about Russia, though.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Map of results of UN vote condemning Russia. China's influence in this conflict is very obvious and they are not behaving as the "neutral" party they wish others to believe (hello there, African investments!):

India excepted the yellow and red on that map make a pretty good approximation of the respective Chinese and Russian SoI.

And Vietnam, which hates China and is closely aligned with the US these days on most Asian matters. Not sure what they think about Russia, though.

Vietnam is neutral in this conflict. They are very pro-Russia, and the current elite of the country was educated in the USSR.

[lfromnj]

Map of results of UN vote condemning Russia. China's influence in this conflict is very obvious and they are not behaving as the "neutral" party they wish others to believe (hello there, African investments!):

India excepted the yellow and red on that map make a pretty good approximation of the respective Chinese and Russian SoI.

And Vietnam, which hates China and is closely aligned with the US these days on most Asian matters. Not sure what they think about Russia, though.

Vietnam is probably what Ukraine is to Russia.  Overall its vote is probably close to why India  is absent as well.

[certified hummus supporter 🇵🇸🤝🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦]

Russians vs. Doors Round 2

Guess who wins?

https://reddit.com/r/NonCredibleDefense/comments/t5ba9r/the_russia_against_the_doors_continues/

[Bismarck]

Map of results of UN vote condemning Russia. China's influence in this conflict is very obvious and they are not behaving as the "neutral" party they wish others to believe (hello there, African investments!):

India excepted the yellow and red on that map make a pretty good approximation of the respective Chinese and Russian SoI.

And Vietnam, which hates China and is closely aligned with the US these days on most Asian matters. Not sure what they think about Russia, though.

Vietnam is neutral in this conflict. They are very pro-Russia, and the current elite of the country was educated in the USSR.

Yes this is right. They are more pro Russia than they are anti China. I have a Vietnamese relative who studied in Kiev during Soviet times and I know better than to bring up the current situation with him.

[WMS]

Damnit I was thinking about doing my more detailed guesswork clear and cogent analysis later.

I personally can divide the yellows into scrupulous and unscrupulous neutrals, but haven’t got every single one down yet.

But a few examples:
Mongolia is a scrupulous neutral despite being a democracy because holy crap look at their geographic position. The ex-communists running the place make this an iffy call but in this case I think any Mongolian government would be neutral.
Bolivia is an unscrupulous neutral because of their last-minute backstab on this contrasting with their recent previous vote on the U.N. Human Rights Council supporting the Ukrainian position. Also there is not a consensus in Bolivia over this, or amongst the Latin American Left. Voting for the resolution like most of Latin America would’ve been a wise move. But muh Evo Morales, I guess.
Kazakhstan is a scrupulous neutral both for this vote and for having the spine to tell Putin no to his request for troops so soon after having the current government put in power by Putin. Plus they’re between Russia and China geographically.
Namibia is an unscrupulous neutral because they are a democracy that should really be opposed to what Russia is doing based on their own experience under apartheid South Africa’s rule. Maybe they’re still doing what South Africa (another disappointment) wants. Or maybe it’s some knee-jerk anti-Western sentiment from their ruling party.

I’m sure there’s Russian or Chinese influence involved somehow.

[It’s so Joever]

The Russians have sent a single group to Voznesensk. If they somehow do capture the area, that would put the Ukrainians in Mykolaiv in a more vulnerable position.

[Person Man]

Russians vs. Doors Round 2

Guess who wins?

https://reddit.com/r/NonCredibleDefense/comments/t5ba9r/the_russia_against_the_doors_continues/

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

The aliens couldn’t use doors.
[/img]

[NewYorkExpress]

I can’t help but notice that Afghanistan is green. Does that mean that THE TALIBAN are condemning the Russian invasion? The TALIBAN??

Given Afghanistan has been invaded by Russia before (and that's indirectly how the Taliban came to power), it actually wouldn't shock me if a Taliban UN Representative would have voted against Russia on this.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I can’t help but notice that Afghanistan is green. Does that mean that THE TALIBAN are condemning the Russian invasion? The TALIBAN??

Given Afghanistan has been invaded by Russia before (and that's indirectly how the Taliban came to power), it actually wouldn't shock me if a Taliban UN Representative would have voted against Russia on this.

For all that could be said about the American rule in Afghanistan, I feel that sentiment in both the Taliban's internal ranks and Afghanistan as a whole would sooner be friendly to America than Russia anyway. Afghanistan is closer to and probably more concerned with Russia than America at the end of the day, and the war the Soviets fought in Afghanistan had significantly worse results for the country than the American one.

[WMS]

Map of results of UN vote condemning Russia. China's influence in this conflict is very obvious and they are not behaving as the "neutral" party they wish others to believe (hello there, African investments!):

India excepted the yellow and red on that map make a pretty good approximation of the respective Chinese and Russian SoI.

And Vietnam, which hates China and is closely aligned with the US these days on most Asian matters. Not sure what they think about Russia, though.

Vietnam is probably what Ukraine is to Russia.  Overall its vote is probably close to why India  is absent as well.

Well that explains Laos, which is basically a colony of Vietnam.

And perhaps that explains Cambodia and Thailand voting Yes, because while neither of them gives a crap about human rights, they care very much about not becoming dominated by Vietnam, China, or India. As I staunchly believe and have said recently, every time I read or hear about someone getting off to “the BRICS will overthrow the Western world order” I immediately look to their neighbors, who somehow aren’t enthusiastic about that…

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Map of results of UN vote condemning Russia. China's influence in this conflict is very obvious and they are not behaving as the "neutral" party they wish others to believe (hello there, African investments!):

India excepted the yellow and red on that map make a pretty good approximation of the respective Chinese and Russian SoI.

And Vietnam, which hates China and is closely aligned with the US these days on most Asian matters. Not sure what they think about Russia, though.

Vietnam is probably what Ukraine is to Russia.  Overall its vote is probably close to why India  is absent as well.

Well that explains Laos, which is basically a colony of Vietnam.

And perhaps that explains Cambodia and Thailand voting Yes, because while neither of them gives a crap about human rights, they care very much about not becoming dominated by Vietnam, China, or India. As I staunchly believe and have said recently, every time I read or hear about someone getting off to “the BRICS will overthrow the Western world order” I immediately look to their neighbors, who somehow aren’t enthusiastic about that…

Isn't Laos more a colony of China as opposed to Vietnam?

[7,052,770]

Does the Taliban control Afghanistan's UN vote? I was thinking the UN doesn't recognize the de facto government that controls Afghanistan.