Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Aurelius]

https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1496945541296832512

[compucomp]

S&P 500 now up 0.7 on the day !!!  I guess the fear of something bad is always worse than that bad thing itself.

What does this have to do with the thread?

It matters because economic sanctions are a big part of the current struggle between Russia and collective west.  Financial markets be it equities FX energy etc etc gives you a glance with the likely economic impact of these sanctions are likely to have on the various economic players.

I was chatting with a colleague about the recovery in the market in the afternoon, and there's another possibility for it that this forum is not going to like: Ukraine collapses and surrenders very quickly, there is minimal destruction and bloodshed (because they lost so fast), and we're back to BAU before long.

Ah, interesting. Thanks for the info.
What does BAU stand for?

Business As Usual

[jaichind]

S&P 500 now up 0.7 on the day !!!  I guess the fear of something bad is always worse than that bad thing itself.

What does this have to do with the thread?

It matters because economic sanctions are a big part of the current struggle between Russia and collective west.  Financial markets be it equities FX energy etc etc gives you a glance with the likely economic impact of these sanctions are likely to have on the various economic players.

I was chatting with a colleague about the recovery in the market in the afternoon, and there's another possibility for it that this forum is not going to like: Ukraine collapses and surrenders very quickly, there is minimal destruction and bloodshed (because they lost so fast), and we're back to BAU before long.

Reading some market commentary just now I get the same vibe as well.  I am not claiming that the equity traders know more than anyone else but they will put the time into understanding what is going on since they have money in the game.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

S&P 500 now up 0.7 on the day !!!  I guess the fear of something bad is always worse than that bad thing itself.

What does this have to do with the thread?

It matters because economic sanctions are a big part of the current struggle between Russia and collective west.  Financial markets be it equities FX energy etc etc gives you a glance with the likely economic impact of these sanctions are likely to have on the various economic players.

I was chatting with a colleague about the recovery in the market in the afternoon, and there's another possibility for it that this forum is not going to like: Ukraine collapses and surrenders very quickly, there is minimal destruction and bloodshed (because they lost so fast), and we're back to BAU before long.

Ah, interesting. Thanks for the info.
What does BAU stand for?

Business As Usual

Ah. Thanks again.
Do you think it's quite possible that Putin enforces the Minsk Agreement and extensive federalization on Ukraine in case of a quick victory?

[StateBoiler]

Does anyone have a good source for the progress of the battle? It seems like there just isn’t any information at all which is to be expected but presumably there is massive fighting happening right?

Bearing in mind parts of this could be wrong.

Russians have air superiority taken out early in the day equipment at airports and anti-aircraft systems. Helicopters operating in western Ukraine support this.

Russian forces have stalled coming out of Donbass and Kharkiv in eastern Ukraine.

Russian and Belarussian forces have successfully moved south from Belarus. They're in Chernobyl which is a lightly populated natural pathway to take going from Belarus to Kiev. Blame appears to be too light a defense posture.

Russians have successfully moved north from Crimea. This front appears to be the greatest failing for Ukrainian defense.

A military airport right next to Kiev is in combat right now after Russian Airborne landed there. This op appears to have taken Ukraine by surprise that it happened first day of war. It's fluctuated in reports from Ukrainian forces of fallen to Russia to Ukraine has taken it back. If Russians take control of the airport they can fly in military equipment in cargo aircraft and lut it on Kiev's doorstep.

[jaichind]

S&P 500 now up 0.7 on the day !!!  I guess the fear of something bad is always worse than that bad thing itself.

What does this have to do with the thread?

It matters because economic sanctions are a big part of the current struggle between Russia and collective west.  Financial markets be it equities FX energy etc etc gives you a glance with the likely economic impact of these sanctions are likely to have on the various economic players.

I was chatting with a colleague about the recovery in the market in the afternoon, and there's another possibility for it that this forum is not going to like: Ukraine collapses and surrenders very quickly, there is minimal destruction and bloodshed (because they lost so fast), and we're back to BAU before long.

The 1yr and 2yr USA inflation swap also fell around the same time intraday as the equity really which implies there is a view that the overall energy market will become more "normal" soon which would imply a bet that geopolitical tension decline over the coming months.

[Torrain]

Protests continue in Moscow this evening. One of the few heartening sights from today:

https://twitter.com/mjluxmoore/status/1496906522080731139
(Source: WSJ reporter in Moscow)

https://twitter.com/AVindman/status/1496900368344797184

This thread feels important: https://twitter.com/aletweetsnews/status/1496893311835123716
The author links footage from protests in the following cities:

• St. Petersburg
• Moscow
• Yekaterinburg
• Novosibirsk
• Nizhny Novgorod
• Victory Square in Kaliningrad
• Volgograd

The police seem to be dragging protestors off the streets, but the footage is circulating like wildfire, and there is resistance in a number of major cities. Whether this amounts to anything is anyone's guess. But hearing the Russian public marching and chanting "No to War", across the nation is a start.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

I am trying to find more official sources but:

1.) apparently a good number of Finnish MPs, even from the left of the political spectrum, now want in on NATO

2.) Sweden and Finland will have a meeting with NATO tomorrow

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Does anyone have a good source for the progress of the battle? It seems like there just isn’t any information at all which is to be expected but presumably there is massive fighting happening right?

Bearing in mind parts of this could be wrong.

Russians have air superiority taken out early in the day equipment at airports and anti-aircraft systems. Helicopters operating in western Ukraine support this.

Russian forces have stalled coming out of Donbass and Kharkiv in eastern Ukraine.

Russian and Belarussian forces have successfully moved south from Belarus. They're in Chernobyl which is a lightly populated natural pathway to take going from Belarus to Kiev. Blame appears to be too light a defense posture.

Russians have successfully moved north from Crimea. This front appears to be the greatest failing for Ukrainian defense.

A military airport right next to Kiev is in combat right now after Russian Airborne landed there. This op appears to have taken Ukraine by surprise that it happened first day of war. It's fluctuated in reports from Ukrainian forces of fallen to Russia to Ukraine has taken it back. If Russians take control of the airport they can fly in military equipment in cargo aircraft and lut it on Kiev's doorstep.

If Ukraine loses the airport, then it will probably make a short war much, much more likely, as it could likely make the war seem irrevocably lost.

[John Dule]

S&P 500 now up 0.7 on the day !!!  I guess the fear of something bad is always worse than that bad thing itself.

What does this have to do with the thread?

It matters because economic sanctions are a big part of the current struggle between Russia and collective west.  Financial markets be it equities FX energy etc etc gives you a glance with the likely economic impact of these sanctions are likely to have on the various economic players.

I was chatting with a colleague about the recovery in the market in the afternoon, and there's another possibility for it that this forum is not going to like: Ukraine collapses and surrenders very quickly, there is minimal destruction and bloodshed (because they lost so fast), and we're back to BAU before long.

This has always been the most likely outcome from a Russian invasion. The question is whether the sanctions will be strong enough to cripple the Russian economy into the foreseeable future, which would make it harder for Putin to consolidate his control.

[Meclazine for Israel]

I cannot see how Ukraine can resist this invasion.

But I didn't think Bosnians had a chance against the Serbs (Chetniks) in the 1990's either.

Putin does risk a lot here, so he will want this over short and sharp.

[Cassius]

S&P 500 now up 0.7 on the day !!!  I guess the fear of something bad is always worse than that bad thing itself.

What does this have to do with the thread?

It matters because economic sanctions are a big part of the current struggle between Russia and collective west.  Financial markets be it equities FX energy etc etc gives you a glance with the likely economic impact of these sanctions are likely to have on the various economic players.

I was chatting with a colleague about the recovery in the market in the afternoon, and there's another possibility for it that this forum is not going to like: Ukraine collapses and surrenders very quickly, there is minimal destruction and bloodshed (because they lost so fast), and we're back to BAU before long.

Reading some market commentary just now I get the same vibe as well.  I am not claiming that the equity traders know more than anyone else but they will put the time into understanding what is going on since they have money in the game.

I mean it’s very difficult to know what the Hell is going on because neither side (obviously) can be trusted to give a fully accurate account of the situation, whilst information from other sources is highly fragmentary and needs to be taken with a tank turret full of salt. It seems at the moment as though Ukraine is doing better than some predicted, but that doesn’t change the massive overall imbalance in forces between the two sides, which should suggest a Russian victory fairly soon. Much seems to be being made of the Russians appearing to make heavy work of it against the Ukrainian forces stationed in the east of the country, but those were the best dug in and best prepared (and presumably have the most combat experience). If the Russians slice the country in two by driving up from Crimea and down from Sumy, then they’re f’d.

As you say, if we do get the quick victory then whatever happens in the market will most likely be a blip (on the western exchanges).

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

International Atomic Energy Agency is concerned with Chernobyl, though German news sources report that apparently nothing was damaged at the site so far.

https://twitter.com/iaeaorg/status/1496923111022804992

Oh geez, I never even considered Chernobyl. 

[Aurelius]

Ukraine has banned men ages 18-60 from leaving the country.

https://twitter.com/OSINT_Ukraine/status/1496957973695971329

[The Mikado]

I cannot see how Ukraine can resist this invasion.

But I didn't think Bosnians had a chance against the Serbs (Chetniks) in the 1990's either.

Putin does risk a lot here, so he will want this over short and sharp.

This has never been about repelling the initial invasion. Russia will overrun Ukraine if it really wants to.

The question is what happens after that.

[President Johnson]

I am trying to find more official sources but:

1.) apparently a good number of Finnish MPs, even from the left of the political spectrum, now want in on NATO

2.) Sweden and Finland will have a meeting with NATO tomorrow

This and US and EU closer and more united than ever. Seems like Putin is a real strategic genius.

[Aurelius]

https://twitter.com/OSINT_Ukraine/status/1496963069397938177

Unconfirmed reports of Russian vehicles in Mykolaiv (east of Odesa).

[President Johnson]

Apparently Emmanual Macron has phoned with Putin. Not much else announced yet.

[Oakvale]

I came to this thread expecting to read about the horror of brave Ukrainians being killed by Russian scum but was pleasantly surprised to see that jaichind's portfolio is doing well. Every cloud folks.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

https://twitter.com/OSINT_Ukraine/status/1496963069397938177

Unconfirmed reports of Russian vehicles in Mykolaiv (east of Odesa).

Ballsy move by the Russians to not bother rolling up Kherson and pushing onto Odessa ASAP. Ukraine apparently trying to counterattack their rapid advance on the flanks.

[jaichind]

S&P 500 now up 0.7 on the day !!!  I guess the fear of something bad is always worse than that bad thing itself.

I am pretty sure that you have no idea what you are talking about. You've been wrong about Putin's aims and ambitions in Ukraine, you failed to predict this invasion and now you're making pronouncements about "fear of something bad" being worse than "the bad thing" before we even understand the full extent of this war, its meaning, its length, duration, the effect of sanctions etc. The wise thing to do would be to listen and learn from people who aren't fools.

I am doing a bad job of explaining myself.   There is an old saying  "Buy to the sound of cannons, sell to the sound of trumpets."  The idea is the fear is geopolitical events most of the time is greater than the real bite when it really takes place.

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1496966417966637060

[Storr]

A thought I had at work: forget sanctions, how about a full embargo on trade with Russia?                  I know Europe won't entertain this idea in the slightest. But when it comes to the US, Russia's imports from the US are around 5% of total imports. Meanwhile the US has less than 1% of its imports come from the motherland. An American embargo on Russia would be easy for the US to weather, not so much for Russia.

[jaichind]

One interesting question would be how much of Russia forces massed at the border have been deployed in battle?

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/OSINT_Ukraine/status/1496963069397938177

Unconfirmed reports of Russian vehicles in Mykolaiv (east of Odesa).

Ballsy move by the Russians to not bother rolling up Kherson and pushing onto Odessa ASAP. Ukraine apparently trying to counterattack their rapid advance on the flanks.

Obviously huge grain of salt and whatnot: https://twitter.com/YWNReporter/status/1496961337850687492?s=20&t=2wCPHid3TS...