Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Orwell]

I do not care if the Ghost of Kyiv is exaggeration I am choosing to believe it

[John Dule]

As encouraging as these reports of Ukraine punching above its weight are, I'm going to hold off on the optimism. Russia's psychotic leaders have a long history of just throwing innocent bodies (including their own citizens) at a problem until it goes away. I sincerely doubt that Ukraine will be able to hold out for over a week against an onslaught from a much larger and better-funded military.

The tales of Ukrainian successes are heartwarming, but they will not amount to much if the cuckolds in charge of continental Europe can't get their acts together and impose the appropriate sanctions.

[Storr]

I have to agree with this. Russia's plan feels rushed and improvised. It seems like it was assumed Ukrainians would just give up because well....we're Russia. Putin even encouraged Ukrainian soldiers to lay down their arms in his declaration of war speech. Today, Russian officials also floated terms the Ukrainians would need to accept in exchange for a ceasefire. Why would Ukraine want a ceasefire when they haven't faced any kind of defeat yet?  

https://twitter.com/DenisonBe/status/1497011945114947587?s=20&t=dQA8OssolY4q...

[Person Man]

https://mobile.twitter.com/hawkerhellfire/status/1496991536571109381
https://mobile.twitter.com/MaxKennerly/status/1497023689212280840

Maybe too soon, but I can already hear the Sabaton song in my mind.

King

[Person Man]

There are reports that 5 Russian helicopters got shot down today

Remember what I said about slav squatters with Stingers?

It might be as impressive as a Florida Man.

[Person Man]

I have to agree with this. Russia's plan feels rushed and improvised. It seems like it was assumed Ukrainians would just give up because well....we're Russia. Putin even encouraged Ukrainian soldiers to lay down their arms in his declaration of war speech. Today, Russian officials also floated terms the Ukrainians would need to accept in exchange for a ceasefire. Why would Ukraine want a ceasefire when they haven't faced any kind of defeat yet?  

https://twitter.com/DenisonBe/status/1497011945114947587?s=20&t=dQA8OssolY4q...

Putin can go suck on a railroad stake.

[WMS]

https://twitter.com/kasparov63/status/1496871285917470720?s=21

Wait... horseshoe theory is true?

Always has been.

You got it! When the measuring stick is political rights and civil liberties, it’s not surprising that extremists of both stripes measure poorly.

[Pericles]

The big question is whether this encourages other countries to invade and conquer countries or if it is seen as backfiring on Russia. If Ukraine is able to put up a fight, that helps provide a deterrent.

[GALeftist]

As encouraging as these reports of Ukraine punching above its weight are, I'm going to hold off on the optimism. Russia's psychotic leaders have a long history of just throwing innocent bodies (including their own citizens) at a problem until it goes away. I sincerely doubt that Ukraine will be able to hold out for over a week against an onslaught from a much larger and better-funded military.

The tales of Ukrainian successes are heartwarming, but they will not amount to much if the cuckolds in charge of continental Europe can't get their acts together and impose the appropriate sanctions.

Was going to say this. The Ukrainian people clearly have a resolve far beyond what anyone could have imagined, and their valiance is endlessly inspiring, but Russia is capable of far more ruthlessness, as anyone who has ever even seen their behavior in Syria can attest. May God protect Ukraine and give Olaf Scholz some sense.

[It’s so Joever]

Gosh maybe I should have wished for a CDU win.

[It’s so Joever]

Anyways I heard some unconfirmed talk of a major Russian breakthrough near Sumy, does anyone know anything about this?

[Storr]

Anyways I heard some unconfirmed talk of a major Russian breakthrough near Sumy, does anyone know anything about this?

I saw this on twitter, but you know twitter. https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1497024504455139330?s=20&t=8vdqzK...

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Wasn't Kiev supposed to be bombed to smithereens an hour and a half ago?

[Ferguson97]

CNN reporting explosions in Kyiv

[GALeftist]

Gosh maybe I should have wished for a CDU win.

Doubt they'd have been better. This is a deeper issue with German policy.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Kick Russia off the U.N. Security Council

I realize it's practically unlikely, but god dammit, we need to hit Russia on every single front absent direct confrontation.

There was never a formal process to admit Russia into the U.N. after the USSR's demise, and the Security Council seat was granted via a decision from the UN's legal counsel with no action requested from the General Assembly. That edict could be revoked, and the U.S. could demand a vote in the General Assembly on Russia's Security Council membership. Would such a maneuver save Kyiv? No, but Moscow must be besieged on all fronts if there is any hope of rescuing Ukrainians from a Russian occupation. The worst crisis in post-war Europe demands nothing less than concerted, dramatic action aimed at Moscow's total isolation, and the time to start is now.

[John Dule]

Kick Russia off the U.N. Security Council

I realize it's practically unlikely, but god dammit, we need to hit Russia on every single front absent direct confrontation.

There was never a formal process to admit Russia into the U.N. after the USSR's demise, and the Security Council seat was granted via a decision from the UN's legal counsel with no action requested from the General Assembly. That edict could be revoked, and the U.S. could demand a vote in the General Assembly on Russia's Security Council membership. Would such a maneuver save Kyiv? No, but Moscow must be besieged on all fronts if there is any hope of rescuing Ukrainians from a Russian occupation. The worst crisis in post-war Europe demands nothing less than concerted, dramatic action aimed at Moscow's total isolation, and the time to start is now.

Not only is Russia on the Security Council, but it's the frigging Council President for the duration of February. The UN is a cosplay convention.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Wasn't Kiev supposed to be bombed to smithereens an hour and a half ago?

CNN reporting explosions in Kyiv

I need to learn when to stop saying things.

[John Dule]

Wasn't Kiev supposed to be bombed to smithereens an hour and a half ago?

CNN reporting explosions in Kyiv

I need to learn when to stop saying things.

*Curb Your Enthusiasm theme plays*

[Cashew]

While i don't often agree with all pro-Ukraine statements, it's becoming clear to me who in this case is the agressor. Putin lives in a 10th world century ideal where he thinks Kiev belongs to Russia because it's where the Russian civilisation started 1000 years ago. What happened in the past, happened. I think it is time to move on. We live in the 21st century. If every country wants to take back what was once supposed to be theirs, you're gonna have a lot of wars, and Russia theirselves will have a lot of wars too, because Japan & Finland also have territories in Russia which was actually theirs.

I believe in diplomacy and in peace, but it is increasingly becoming clear Putin doesn't care for that at all, and that he also doesn't care about human suffering, as long they're no Russians. Putin is proving right now why NATO is needed. I wasn't supportive of NATO but Putin has proven that we need NATO after all, even today. I wasn't supportive of NATO but that certainly changed in the past weeks.

I feel similarly to yourself. While I am not fan of ostracizing the Russian people, or of using Russia as a scapegoat for the Democratic party's own failures, and am certainly critical of western hypocrisy (especially the establishment figures that are fine with bush and blair waking free while wanting a war crimes tribunal for Putin, with issues like the continuing occupation of the chagos islands certainly make of mockery of the "rules based order", and validating the "might makes right" argument they are supposedly appalled by) ultimately everything that is happening today in Ukraine is Putin's fault. Had he done nothing Ukraine still would not have been able to join NATO due to Crimea, and for that to change would require a Ukrainian government willing to give up crimea, which would still be a victory of sorts for Russia in terms of international recognition, and it was never going to be in a position to threaten Russia militarily on it's own so clearly it was a war of choice.

[StateBoiler]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russia-ukraine-warning-update-initial-russian-offensive-campaign-assessment

Early assessment of Russian campaign, published 6.5 hours ago as of me posting this.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1497039189740859419?s=20&t=WTegcTW...

Something was intercepted over Kyiv.

[The Free North]

Bombardment of Kyiv has begun, but anti air defenses seem to be operational still which is promising for Ukraine.

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1497039189740859419?s=20&t=WTegcTW...
Something was intercepted over Kyiv.

Whatever was shot down was either carrying a lot of munitions or fuel.

Edit: Ukrainian Interior Ministry claims it was a Russian aircraft (unconfirmed).

[StateBoiler]

While i don't often agree with all pro-Ukraine statements, it's becoming clear to me who in this case is the agressor. Putin lives in a 10th world century ideal where he thinks Kiev belongs to Russia because it's where the Russian civilisation started 1000 years ago. What happened in the past, happened. I think it is time to move on. We live in the 21st century. If every country wants to take back what was once supposed to be theirs, you're gonna have a lot of wars, and Russia theirselves will have a lot of wars too, because Japan & Finland also have territories in Russia which was actually theirs.

I believe in diplomacy and in peace, but it is increasingly becoming clear Putin doesn't care for that at all, and that he also doesn't care about human suffering, as long they're no Russians. Putin is proving right now why NATO is needed. I wasn't supportive of NATO but Putin has proven that we need NATO after all, even today. I wasn't supportive of NATO but that certainly changed in the past weeks.

I believe in diplomacy and peace too, but diplomacy and peace after Georgia 2008 created this today. Diplomacy and peace after Crimea 2014 created this today. My complaint about Western civilization classical liberals (the old definition of liberal, not the American one) is they all believe in things like diplomacy, peace, and democracy, but don't you dare ask them to fight for and defend those things. They are soft people and soft people don't do well in a hard world.

One thing that should be taken from today by everyone is that the world never changes. There will always be assholes running countries, there will always be contests for power. You're a blind idiot to think that's all in the past and to think that defense expenditure is pointless. Just today, China sent 9 fighter jets into Taiwan airspace. Could they do a mission there shortly? Doubtful, but damn it'd be good timing with a distracted world, and there would go a lot of countries' considerable amounts of their semiconductor supply -the steel production of the 21st century.