Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Drew]

https://twitter.com/ap/status/1496909661106323456?s=21

[jaichind]

Bloomberg reports : "Kyiv may fall to Russian forces tonight as Ukraine’s air defenses have been effectively eliminated, according to a senior Western intelligence official.  Russian troops are advancing toward Ukraine down both sides of the Dnieper river and look set to take the capital, the official said. "

[The Free North]

Bloomberg reports : "Kyiv may fall to Russian forces tonight as Ukraine’s air defenses have been effectively eliminated, according to a senior Western intelligence official.  Russian troops are advancing toward Ukraine down both sides of the Dnieper river and look set to take the capital, the official said. "

It seems Russia controls at least one of the air bases near the city although they're still under Ukrainian artillery fire. The Ukrainian forces in the east seem to be fairing better. If Kiev falls, how long do they hold out for?

[jaichind]

President Biden says he will sanction five major Russian banks, in a speech from the White House.

US equity markets rally

[StateBoiler]

Anti-war/pro-Ukraine rally in Berlin this evening.

Sorry to be an asshole, but why does that matter? Is a rally going to help Ukraine defend itself?

Passing on, grains of salt again as far as the movements:

Reports on the frontline are scattered, with many contradictions and misinformation but this is what I have seen so far:

--Russian incursions from the LNR/DNR regions seem to have stalled, or at least are progressing slower than anticipated.

--Russian incursions from Crimea have found more success, as Ukrainian defenders in the region find themselves outnumbered and having to conduct hit and run operations to fight back. Kherson appears to have been taken and now the Russians are advancing towards Melitopol.

--Russian/Belorussian forces have taken Chernobyl and are poised to use the region as a jump-off point towards Kyiv.

--Russian Airborne units have landed at Antonov airport and are currently trying to hold off a Ukrainian counterattack. UPDATE: Ukrainian Defense Ministry has reported the loss of the airport. Russian Airborne reinforcements are expected to fly in to prepare for an assault on the capital.

Also interestingly, there are reports of Chechnyans fighting under Kadyrov's outfit as well as Chechnyan volunteers fighting alongside local Ukrainian defenders.

Wouldn't surprise me the moves from the east are stalling as the Ukrainians should have a more defensive posture setup there from the last 7 years. That doesn't explain Crimea however.

Observers say the loss of the airport is critical and came much earlier than Ukraine expected:

The helo assault at Antanov Airport is bold, very bold.

Apparently those Russian troops are elements of the 45th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade. A reddit thread I've been keeping track of has stated that they have seized the actual airport, but are currently under counterattack by local Ukrainian troops.

Seems like a bit of a crazy and unnecessary risk. Suggests to me the Russians have made a very dim assessment of the Ukranian forces to think they could take and hold it, and will get relief soon enough by ground forces. Perhaps thinking Ukrainian defense and counters would be weak and slow due to major element of surprise.

Not really. I have zero doubts that the Russians fully have intel assets spread across Ukraine. The Russians would have real time intel on the Ukrainian forces deployed at the airport and what is available for call up. What is bold is how this threw Kiev for a loop. I would have expected several points to be taken before the Russians made a move on Kiev. Hitting it on the first day meant that the Ukrainians were not only physically not prepared to receive the assault but also psychologically not prepared. Also showed just how unprepared the Ukrainians are. Yeah, I would have been surprised too but I would also have a [rapid response force] ready to respond.

Standard doctrine. Seize an airfield by airborne/air assault. Bring in reinforcements by air landing. You can bring in a metric sh**t ton of equipment and vehicles in AN-124s & 225s. If you notice the Ukrainian air defense networks were early targets.

[compucomp]

Markets have been up since Biden started speaking. What exactly was the market pricing in before, NATO to sever diplomatic relations with Russia? I don't understand what's going on here.

[StateBoiler]

Mitt Romney was wrong in 2012, he remains wrong in 2022. China is clearly the biggest geopolitical foe and threat to the United States, whereas Russia is a regional threat to Europe, it is basically a negligible threat to the US itself.

Stated different, was Mitt Romney prescient in repeating old adages rooted in elderly nostalgia for Ronald Reagan and the Cold War Era? No, of course not, he was just appealing to dementia-ridden geezers in nursing homes who forgot that the Berlin Wall fell some 20 years before.

No. You're letting your political biases inform your thinking. China is a big threat to the U.S., there's a difference between that and what Obama said.

[jaichind]

India has to tread carefully as Russia is their main arms supplier.

Arms they need to halt the Chinese from continually violating their territorial integrity.

This is why what PRC and Russia has is better than an alliance.  It is really two Great Powers that are coupled and act as one as needed and act separately as part of plausible deniability when necessary.  India's position on Russia would be a lot more negative if PRC and Russia were official allies.

[jaichind]

Markets have been up since Biden started speaking. What exactly was the market pricing in before, NATO to sever diplomatic relations with Russia? I don't understand what's going on here.

They were fearing worse like steps to shut down Russian exports of raw materials (metals and energy) to the rest of the world.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Anti-war/pro-Ukraine rally in Berlin this evening.

Sorry to be an asshole, but why does that matter? Is a rally going to help Ukraine defend itself?

Helping inspire and embolden similar movements in Russia.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Mitt Romney was wrong in 2012, he remains wrong in 2022. China is clearly the biggest geopolitical foe and threat to the United States, whereas Russia is a regional threat to Europe, it is basically a negligible threat to the US itself.

Stated different, was Mitt Romney prescient in repeating old adages rooted in elderly nostalgia for Ronald Reagan and the Cold War Era? No, of course not, he was just appealing to dementia-ridden geezers in nursing homes who forgot that the Berlin Wall fell some 20 years before.

No. You're letting your political biases inform your thinking. China is a big threat to the U.S., there's a difference between that and what Obama said.

Barack Obama was correct: in the 1980s, what Mitt Romney said was accurate but, in 2012, China had cleared usurped the role that Russia once had when it was the USSR. Whether or not he explicitly invoked China is besides the point - Russia is only a regional power. Its post-imperial ambitions, however dangerous they might be to Europe, are basically limited to areas of Eurasia in close proximity to Russia. There is no Soviet-era desire to spread "world communism" or anything similar. Mitt Romney was playing on fears from this past era, not providing cogent analysis.

Even now, the intensity of the US response is partially driven by the desire to create a "penal code"/"grim trigger" to ward off a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. One country is actually our rival, the other is a rogue state of regional importance.

[Ferguson97]

Anti-war/pro-Ukraine rally in Berlin this evening.

Sorry to be an asshole, but why does that matter? Is a rally going to help Ukraine defend itself?

If enough people protest/rally in support of Ukraine, it will put pressure on government to issue stronger responses. Implicit message being, do this or you will not win re-election.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I must say that the situation is terrible. But so far I'm fine. At the moment, I am taking my family out of my city to the village where I have a house. Details will be announced later, if possible

Thank God.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/Blake_Allen13/status/1496922366580072448?s=20&t=sVBQQ57u...

[It’s so Joever]

Biden is a failure of a president. Maybe the GOP dictatorship is preferable…

[Not Me, Us]

Biden is a failure of a president. Maybe the GOP dictatorship is preferable…

Maybe you should stop posting every random thought that pops into your head. Save it for your blog.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Also, where are all the anti-Imperialist leftists in this thread?

"Imperialism is when a country is EU-aligned. The more EU-aligned it is, the imperialister it is."

You joke but a lot of people unironically believe this.

https://twitter.com/BenjaminNorton/status/1496915751072055300
https://twitter.com/BenjaminNorton/status/1496916721944379400

[ugabug]

Biden is a failure of a president. Maybe the GOP dictatorship is preferable…

No

[StateBoiler]

Mitt Romney was wrong in 2012, he remains wrong in 2022. China is clearly the biggest geopolitical foe and threat to the United States, whereas Russia is a regional threat to Europe, it is basically a negligible threat to the US itself.

Stated different, was Mitt Romney prescient in repeating old adages rooted in elderly nostalgia for Ronald Reagan and the Cold War Era? No, of course not, he was just appealing to dementia-ridden geezers in nursing homes who forgot that the Berlin Wall fell some 20 years before.

No. You're letting your political biases inform your thinking. China is a big threat to the U.S., there's a difference between that and what Obama said.

Barack Obama was correct: in the 1980s, what Mitt Romney said was accurate but, in 2012, China had cleared usurped the role that Russia once had when it was the USSR. Whether or not he explicitly invoked China is besides the point - Russia is only a regional power. Its post-imperial ambitions, however dangerous they might be to Europe, are basically limited to areas of Eurasia in close proximity to Russia. There is no Soviet-era desire to spread "world communism" or anything similar. Mitt Romney was playing on fears from this past era, not providing cogent analysis.

Even now, the intensity of the US response is partially driven by the desire to create a "penal code"/"grim trigger" to ward off a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. One country is actually our rival, the other is a rogue state of regional importance.

You're letting your political biases inform your thinking. That rogue state of regional importance has just created the largest war in Europe in 75 years and our country is tied by treaty into defending the sovereignty of most of the states of Europe.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

So we know that Russia will seize control of Ukraine and install a puppet regime? What will the US, EU, NATO and other major world powers do?

Will Russia be effectively cut off from the rest of the world? Or will this all just blow-over?

[KaiserDave]

Every time I see a deranged Forumlurker post I am confused but I see the avatar and expect something from Andriy but it's always more Forumlurker crap.

[Skunk]

I must say that the situation is terrible. But so far I'm fine. At the moment, I am taking my family out of my city to the village where I have a house. Details will be announced later, if possible

Stay strong

[Aurelius]

https://twitter.com/business/status/1496921478721327110

This is horrifying. Kabul all over again.

[StateBoiler]

Also, where are all the anti-Imperialist leftists in this thread?

"Imperialism is when a country is EU-aligned. The more EU-aligned it is, the imperialister it is."

Speaking of government-level versions of that, the current count of Russia-supporting countries:

-Belarus has actually attacked Ukraine so is in a category of its own
-Syria, Cuba, Nicaragua, Venezuela, and the Houthis in Yemen 100% openly support Russia
-Iran and China are a little more veiled in their statements but it’s clear they support Russia
-While I don’t have a link to a source yet it would be totally unsurprising if North Korea supports Russia
-I’ve read the Saudis are cooperating with Russia to increase oil prices but don’t have confirmation yet
-Since Wikipedia doesn’t have maps up yet of world reactions to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but they do have one for the “recognition of independence of the two Donbas entities”, we can use this as a decent proxy.

-With the exception of some microstates all of Europe has condemned Russia except for - Omega trigger warning! - Republika Srpska and Serbia proper!

-There are still a lot of countries I am very curious about in regards to their stance.

Serbia can at least make the argument that Donbass is no different than Kosovo. I'm saying that to be more anti-Kosovo precendent than to be pro-Donbass independence.

What are Armenia and Kazakhstan saying?

I expect most of the "Rest of the non-Western World" to fall behind whatever the Chinese viewpoint is.

Serbia proper can say that and at least be consistent, but not RS.

Artsakh - what’s left of it - openly supports Russia. Not sure about Armenia itself, and Kazakhstan has been using vague weasel words to obscure their stance appears to have surprisingly condemned it.

And you may be right about the “Rest of the non-Western world”, but I don’t have information on that yet.

Oh, wait, Colombia supports Ukraine, along with Costa Rica, Guatemala, Georgia, and maybe Peru and Indonesia. Uruguay, Honduras, Mexico, Brazil, and India have been more mixed.

Columbia thanks to Venezuela are heavily tied into U.S. security thinking now. Georgia of course here supports the U.S.

Indonesia surprises me.

[Aurelius]

So we know that Russia will seize control of Ukraine and install a puppet regime? What will the US, EU, NATO and other major world powers do?

Will Russia be effectively cut off from the rest of the world? Or will this all just blow-over?

Russia and China announced a "No Limits Partnership" recently. That's a huge market for Russia regardless of what the West does.