Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[kwabbit]

Also, where are all the anti-Imperialist leftists in this thread?

"Imperialism is when a country is EU-aligned. The more EU-aligned it is, the imperialister it is."

I’m talking about specific posters like Big Abraham and PSOL. Seriously, where are they?

Probably caught between reflexively anti-western attitudes and the obvious injustice of Putin and Russia's actions.

[Person Man]

Also, where are all the anti-Imperialist leftists in this thread?

"Imperialism is when a country is EU-aligned. The more EU-aligned it is, the imperialister it is."

I’m talking about specific posters like Big Abraham and PSOL. Seriously, where are they?

Probably caught between reflexively anti-western attitudes and the obvious injustice of Putin and Russia's actions.

Even RB hasn’t been posting as much. Think he was sent?

[Person Man]

Like StateBoiler said, a militia is certainly much less capable, man for man, than a professional military. In the early history of the United States, when there was a strong ideological preference for volunteer militia over standing armies, the militia forces repeatedly proved themselves less potent than the regulars on a broad scale, despite individual moments of heroics. However, it's still much better than nothing. If you have millions of Ukrainians doing nothing militarily, going about their ordinary civilian lives, and then you recruit from them as an auxiliary to your standing army, that will add to your strength.

Ukraine has a population of 44 million, and there's probably 8-10 million fighting age men in there. Obviously only a small fraction will likely volunteer, but is not insignificant.

3% is a few hundred thousand militiamen.

[Velasco]

Garry Kasparov recommends supporting Ukraine with everything but boots on the ground

https://twitter.com/Kasparov63/status/1496865471995523080?t=66bsaKsk4VU0eGKlnTXH...

[Ferguson97]

Also, where are all the anti-Imperialist leftists in this thread?

"Imperialism is when a country is EU-aligned. The more EU-aligned it is, the imperialister it is."

I’m talking about specific posters like Big Abraham and PSOL. Seriously, where are they?

Probably searching how to sign up for the Russian army.

[StateBoiler]

Hasn't been mentioned so far here, but Snake Island in the Black Sea was attacked by 2 Russian naval vessels who demanded the surrender of the Ukrainian garrison. They refused to, and the subsequent bombardment has apparently destroyed the buildings on the island. I imagine the Ukrainian Navy is in no state to resupply them right now, so it's a matter of time until Russia occupies it.

The American retired generals take of "what would a Russian invasion look like?" specifically mentioned Snake Island. It being Ukrainian territory due to its location allows the Ukrainians to claim a lot more sea area on the Black Sea than they could otherwise.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Well, looks like I was right. One thrust at Kyiv to enact regime change as the Ukrainian army is encircled in Donbas from Kharkiv and Crimea. Also looks like the US intelligence briefing of 72 hours for Kyiv to fall might be accurate...

As for insurgency: if Ukrainians would rather live under Putin than bear the cost of war against him, then there will be no insurgency to support. But if the people of Ukraine decide to make their cities into battlegrounds, they will. It would then be our duty to help them in the best way we can.

[Middle-aged Europe]

How many people calling for Russia to be cut off from SWIFT actually know what SWIFT is? Does Boris Johnson know what SWIFT is?

I know what SWIFT is. Do you know what SWIFT is?

I know that cutting Russia off from SWIFT would cause western institutions harm as well as Russian ones, yes. Not something we want to be doing.

Again, this is not about what would be hurting "western insititutions" or not. This is about what's necessary.

To quote Dean Rusk, appeasement only makes the aggressor more aggressive.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1496901716876443648?s=20&t=IA9yLGC2x-U...

Why were Russia ships being allowed to cross the straits anyway? The Russians were building up an invasion to (theoretically) end increasing ties between Ukraine and NATO, why was a NATO member letting them move warship into the area.

[MaxQue]

How many people calling for Russia to be cut off from SWIFT actually know what SWIFT is? Does Boris Johnson know what SWIFT is?

I know what SWIFT is. Do you know what SWIFT is?

I know that cutting Russia off from SWIFT would cause western institutions harm as well as Russian ones, yes. Not something we want to be doing.

Again, this is not about what would be hurting "western insititutions" or not. This is about what's necessary.

To quote Dean Rusk, appeasement only makes the aggressor more aggressive.

Well, it won't happen. thanks to your country being run by Olaf Schroder.

[Aurelius]

https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1496901716876443648?s=20&t=IA9yLGC2x-U...

Why were Russia ships being allowed to cross the straits anyway? The Russians were building up an invasion to (theoretically) end increasing ties between Ukraine and NATO, why was a NATO member letting them move warship into the area.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montreux_Convention_Regarding_the_Regime_of_the_Straits

https://twitter.com/SonerCagaptay/status/1496837367436562435

[StateBoiler]

Ukraine has a population of 44 million, and there's probably 8-10 million fighting age men in there. Obviously only a small fraction will likely volunteer, but is not insignificant.

3% is a few hundred thousand militiamen.

Ukraine has the arms and ammunition in stock to capably arm all few hundred thousand?

[MaxQue]

https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1496901716876443648?s=20&t=IA9yLGC2x-U...

Why were Russia ships being allowed to cross the straits anyway? The Russians were building up an invasion to (theoretically) end increasing ties between Ukraine and NATO, why was a NATO member letting them move warship into the area.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montreux_Convention_Regarding_the_Regime_of_the_Straits

https://twitter.com/SonerCagaptay/status/1496837367436562435

Moscow broke the Minsk agreement, surely that allow NATO to break that one?

[Person Man]

Ukraine has a population of 44 million, and there's probably 8-10 million fighting age men in there. Obviously only a small fraction will likely volunteer, but is not insignificant.

3% is a few hundred thousand militiamen.

Ukraine has the arms and ammunition in stock to capably arm all few hundred thousand?

Did the Mujahadeen?

[WMS]

Also, where are all the anti-Imperialist leftists in this thread?

"Imperialism is when a country is EU-aligned. The more EU-aligned it is, the imperialister it is."

Speaking of government-level versions of that, the current count of Russia-supporting countries:

-Belarus has actually attacked Ukraine so is in a category of its own
-Syria, Cuba, Nicaragua, Venezuela, and the Houthis in Yemen 100% openly support Russia
-Iran and China are a little more veiled in their statements but it’s clear they support Russia
-While I don’t have a link to a source yet it would be totally unsurprising if North Korea supports Russia
-I’ve read the Saudis are cooperating with Russia to increase oil prices but don’t have confirmation yet
-Since Wikipedia doesn’t have maps up yet of world reactions to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but they do have one for the “recognition of independence of the two Donbas entities”, we can use this as a decent proxy.

-With the exception of some microstates all of Europe has condemned Russia except for - Omega trigger warning! - Republika Srpska and Serbia proper!

-There are still a lot of countries I am very curious about in regards to their stance.

[2016]

KYIV will fall within 7 Days I predict! Ukrainian Army might hold them back when it is Daylight but not at Night. Zelensky should flee while he can.

[Aurelius]

Kyiv is apparently expected to fall sometime in the next week. Is there any information about the likely fate of western Ukraine, particularly Lviv? And is Poland expected to get involved if Lviv or areas to its west are attacked?

[StateBoiler]

Also, where are all the anti-Imperialist leftists in this thread?

"Imperialism is when a country is EU-aligned. The more EU-aligned it is, the imperialister it is."

Speaking of government-level versions of that, the current count of Russia-supporting countries:

-Belarus has actually attacked Ukraine so is in a category of its own
-Syria, Cuba, Nicaragua, Venezuela, and the Houthis in Yemen 100% openly support Russia
-Iran and China are a little more veiled in their statements but it’s clear they support Russia
-While I don’t have a link to a source yet it would be totally unsurprising if North Korea supports Russia
-I’ve read the Saudis are cooperating with Russia to increase oil prices but don’t have confirmation yet
-Since Wikipedia doesn’t have maps up yet of world reactions to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but they do have one for the “recognition of independence of the two Donbas entities”, we can use this as a decent proxy.

-With the exception of some microstates all of Europe has condemned Russia except for - Omega trigger warning! - Republika Srpska and Serbia proper!

-There are still a lot of countries I am very curious about in regards to their stance.

Serbia can at least make the argument that Donbass is no different than Kosovo. I'm saying that to be more anti-Kosovo precendent than to be pro-Donbass independence.

What are Armenia and Kazakhstan saying?

I expect most of the "Rest of the non-Western World" to fall behind whatever the Chinese viewpoint is.

[John Dule]

Also, where are all the anti-Imperialist leftists in this thread?

"Imperialism is when a country is EU-aligned. The more EU-aligned it is, the imperialister it is."

Speaking of government-level versions of that, the current count of Russia-supporting countries:

-Belarus has actually attacked Ukraine so is in a category of its own
-Syria, Cuba, Nicaragua, Venezuela, and the Houthis in Yemen 100% openly support Russia
-Iran and China are a little more veiled in their statements but it’s clear they support Russia
-While I don’t have a link to a source yet it would be totally unsurprising if North Korea supports Russia
-I’ve read the Saudis are cooperating with Russia to increase oil prices but don’t have confirmation yet
-Since Wikipedia doesn’t have maps up yet of world reactions to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but they do have one for the “recognition of independence of the two Donbas entities”, we can use this as a decent proxy.

-With the exception of some microstates all of Europe has condemned Russia except for - Omega trigger warning! - Republika Srpska and Serbia proper!

-There are still a lot of countries I am very curious about in regards to their stance.

Serbia can at least make the argument that Donbass is no different than Kosovo. I'm saying that to be more anti-Kosovo precendent than to be pro-Donbass independence.

What are Armenia and Kazakhstan saying?

I expect most of the "Rest of the non-Western World" to fall behind whatever the Chinese viewpoint is.

Kazakhstan condemned the recognition.

[Aurelius]

Also, where are all the anti-Imperialist leftists in this thread?

"Imperialism is when a country is EU-aligned. The more EU-aligned it is, the imperialister it is."

Speaking of government-level versions of that, the current count of Russia-supporting countries:

-Belarus has actually attacked Ukraine so is in a category of its own
-Syria, Cuba, Nicaragua, Venezuela, and the Houthis in Yemen 100% openly support Russia
-Iran and China are a little more veiled in their statements but it’s clear they support Russia
-While I don’t have a link to a source yet it would be totally unsurprising if North Korea supports Russia
-I’ve read the Saudis are cooperating with Russia to increase oil prices but don’t have confirmation yet
-Since Wikipedia doesn’t have maps up yet of world reactions to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but they do have one for the “recognition of independence of the two Donbas entities”, we can use this as a decent proxy.

-With the exception of some microstates all of Europe has condemned Russia except for - Omega trigger warning! - Republika Srpska and Serbia proper!

-There are still a lot of countries I am very curious about in regards to their stance.

Serbia can at least make the argument that Donbass is no different than Kosovo. I'm saying that to be more anti-Kosovo precendent than to be pro-Donbass independence.

What are Armenia and Kazakhstan saying?

I expect most of the "Rest of the non-Western World" to fall behind whatever the Chinese viewpoint is.

Kazakhstan condemned the recognition.

Surprising and bold move from them after Russia intervened to help their government suppress the popular uprising last month.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Mitt Romney was wrong in 2012, he remains wrong in 2022. China is clearly the biggest geopolitical foe and threat to the United States, whereas Russia is a regional threat to Europe, it is basically a negligible threat to the US itself.

Stated different, was Mitt Romney prescient in repeating old adages rooted in elderly nostalgia for Ronald Reagan and the Cold War Era? No, of course not, he was just appealing to dementia-ridden geezers in nursing homes who forgot that the Berlin Wall fell some 20 years before.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Anti-war/pro-Ukraine rally in Berlin this evening.














In front of the RUSSIAN EMBASSY:



Another, larger rally is planned for Sunday.

[WMS]

Also, where are all the anti-Imperialist leftists in this thread?

"Imperialism is when a country is EU-aligned. The more EU-aligned it is, the imperialister it is."

Speaking of government-level versions of that, the current count of Russia-supporting countries:

-Belarus has actually attacked Ukraine so is in a category of its own
-Syria, Cuba, Nicaragua, Venezuela, and the Houthis in Yemen 100% openly support Russia
-Iran and China are a little more veiled in their statements but it’s clear they support Russia
-While I don’t have a link to a source yet it would be totally unsurprising if North Korea supports Russia
-I’ve read the Saudis are cooperating with Russia to increase oil prices but don’t have confirmation yet
-Since Wikipedia doesn’t have maps up yet of world reactions to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but they do have one for the “recognition of independence of the two Donbas entities”, we can use this as a decent proxy.

-With the exception of some microstates all of Europe has condemned Russia except for - Omega trigger warning! - Republika Srpska and Serbia proper!

-There are still a lot of countries I am very curious about in regards to their stance.

Serbia can at least make the argument that Donbass is no different than Kosovo. I'm saying that to be more anti-Kosovo precendent than to be pro-Donbass independence.

What are Armenia and Kazakhstan saying?

I expect most of the "Rest of the non-Western World" to fall behind whatever the Chinese viewpoint is.

Serbia proper can say that and at least be consistent, but not RS.

Artsakh - what’s left of it - openly supports Russia. Not sure about Armenia itself, and Kazakhstan has been using vague weasel words to obscure their stance appears to have surprisingly condemned it.

And you may be right about the “Rest of the non-Western world”, but I don’t have information on that yet.

Oh, wait, Colombia supports Ukraine, along with Costa Rica, Guatemala, Georgia, and maybe Peru and Indonesia. Uruguay, Honduras, Mexico, Brazil, and India have been more mixed.

[The Free North]

Also, where are all the anti-Imperialist leftists in this thread?

"Imperialism is when a country is EU-aligned. The more EU-aligned it is, the imperialister it is."

Speaking of government-level versions of that, the current count of Russia-supporting countries:

-Belarus has actually attacked Ukraine so is in a category of its own
-Syria, Cuba, Nicaragua, Venezuela, and the Houthis in Yemen 100% openly support Russia
-Iran and China are a little more veiled in their statements but it’s clear they support Russia
-While I don’t have a link to a source yet it would be totally unsurprising if North Korea supports Russia
-I’ve read the Saudis are cooperating with Russia to increase oil prices but don’t have confirmation yet
-Since Wikipedia doesn’t have maps up yet of world reactions to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but they do have one for the “recognition of independence of the two Donbas entities”, we can use this as a decent proxy.

-With the exception of some microstates all of Europe has condemned Russia except for - Omega trigger warning! - Republika Srpska and Serbia proper!

-There are still a lot of countries I am very curious about in regards to their stance.

Serbia can at least make the argument that Donbass is no different than Kosovo. I'm saying that to be more anti-Kosovo precendent than to be pro-Donbass independence.

What are Armenia and Kazakhstan saying?

I expect most of the "Rest of the non-Western World" to fall behind whatever the Chinese viewpoint is.

Serbia proper can say that and at least be consistent, but not RS.

Artsakh - what’s left of it - openly supports Russia. Not sure about Armenia itself, and Kazakhstan has been using vague weasel words to obscure their stance.

And you may be right about the “Rest of the non-Western world”, but I don’t have information on that yet.

Oh, wait, Colombia supports Ukraine, along with Costa Rica, Guatemala, Georgia, and maybe Peru and Indonesia. Uruguay, Honduras, Mexico, Brazil, and India have been more mixed.

India has to tread carefully as Russia is their main arms supplier.

Arms they need to halt the Chinese from continually violating their territorial integrity.

[ugabug]

https://twitter.com/EilishHart/status/1496903893812396039