Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[jaichind]

This speech is going on for too long.  Get to the point.

I think, he'll end up ordering to throw out Lenin out of the Mausoleum 

The speech is just a list of Russian talking points over the last few months.  It is not going to convince anyone that already has an anti-Russia position.  He should get to what he is going to do and what consequences he thinks Russia will face as a result of what he is going to do.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Respect for Macron who has heard it at least 5 times last week.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

If Putin is smart, the invasion is happening right now. He has made everyone sleepy 😴😴😴

[StateBoiler]

Question: Does Russia recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent states?  Last I recall it was no but I could be wrong about that.

Here's the Wikipedia list of unrecognized and partially recognized states. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_with_limited_recognition

South Ossetia declared its independence in 1991. It is currently recognised by 5 UN member states (Russia, Syria, Nicaragua, Venezuela, and Nauru), and four non-UN member states (Abkhazia, Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh), Transnistria, and the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic). One additional UN member state (Tuvalu) had recognised South Ossetia, but subsequently withdrew its recognition.

Abkhazia declared its independence in 1999. It is currently recognised by 6 UN member states (Russia, Syria, Nicaragua, Venezuela, Nauru, and Vanuatu), and three non-UN member states (South Ossetia, Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh) and Transnistria). One additional UN member state (Tuvalu) had recognised Abkhazia, but subsequently withdrew its recognition.

I'd like to go to the Vanuatu foreign ministry and ask "why do you recognize Abkhazia and not recognize South Ossetia?" Just be interested in hearing the logic.

I imagine Syria, Nicaragua, and Venezuela will follow the Russians in short order on recognition of Luhansk and Donetsk. Transnistria is only recognized by Abkhazia, Artsakh, and South Ossetia. Ditto Artsakh.

I'll watch Putin's speech later, but confirms what I've said of Putin's imperialism that he believes more in the pre-1918 Russian Empire than the Soviet Union as his guiding light.

[Gass3268]

So how soon before Finland asks to join NATO?

[jaichind]

Imposing sanctions simply because Russia chose to recognise Donetsk and Luhansk would be a very odd (and unprecedented?) manouevre.

Yeah.  If Putin does this and then does nothing I think the split between the Western alliance and Ukraine will get wider. Ukraine will demand sanctions while many in the Western alliance will push back on that.

[President Johnson]

At this point, I fail to see what any additional summit with Joe Biden would accomplish. Putin pretends to be interested in talks, but pretty much does what he wants anyway.

Recognition of the separatist territories could indeed be the playbook for an invasion as Putin could say "they're sovereign countries and we're invading at their invitation and come to their defense against aggressive Ukrainian military".

The West should impose massive sanctions now and bury Nordstream 2 once and for all. Yes, it might not be in our immediate economic interest, but being dependend on Russia isn't in the long run as well.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Putin talks so much, someone else might invade Ukraine before him.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

At this point, I fail to see what any additional summit with Joe Biden would accomplish. Putin pretends to be interested in talks, but pretty much does what he wants anyway.

Recognition of the separatist territories could indeed be the playbook for an invasion as Putin could say "they're sovereign countries and we're invading at their invitation and come to their defense against aggressive Ukrainian military".

The West should impose massive sanctions now and bury Nordstream 2 once and for all. Yes, it might not be in our immediate economic interest, but being dependend on Russia isn't in the long run as well.

I doubt, there will be a summit now.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

OK. IT'S HAPPENING!

He's signing it right now.


He says Ukraine has to stop all the military action immediately OOOOORRRR ELSE...

[jaichind]

RUB actually strengthened to above 80 at the end of the speech.  I guess some investors expected Putin to also order a military offensive against Ukraine which did not take place.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1495845733982871554

[Skye]

This was not unexpected, but that doesn't make it any less horrifying.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Yeah nothing in that speech should surprise anyone. It's a rehash of the letter he released last year. If you didn't think this was coming you weren't paying attention.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

RUB actually strengthened to above 80 at the end of the speech.  I guess some investors expected Putin to also order a military offensive against Ukraine which did not take place.

Well, Putin ended his speech with ill-concealed threat, but I suppose, it wasn't worst case scenario.


https://twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/1495846146824183816

[Ferguson97]

If Vaccinated Russian Bear could contain his giddiness about the invasion of a foreign country, this thread would be much more bearable....

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

If Vaccinated Russian Bear could contain his giddiness about the invasion of a foreign country, this thread would be much more bearable....

[Lief 🗽]

If Vaccinated Russian Bear could contain his giddiness about the invasion of a foreign country, this thread would be much more bearable....

Yeah if Trump had successfully stolen the 2020 election I suppose he would have just given Ukraine to Putin without a fight.

[Helsinkian]

So how soon before Finland asks to join NATO?

Our politicians are ostriches who love to stick their heads in sand and pretend that what happens to Ukraine and Georgia would not happen here. Some are still stuck in the finlandization mindset. Many more believe that Finland should follow Sweden's example in all things. If Sweden applies for NATO membership, Finland will also. If Sweden does not apply, I'm not sure our politicians will ever find the courage to apply alone.

Of course, application is just the first step. I could see Putin asking his buddy Orbán to veto our application. Though Finns and Hungarians are related, a lot of the right-wing Hungarians have never been very enthused about that relation and would rather imagine themselves as relatives of Turks.

[StateBoiler]

Guardian live news feed:

I have been talking to a senior official from an east European country after Putin’s staged security council meeting. The official expressed concern about splits in allied resolve in the face of a Russian recognition of Luhansk and Donetsk “independence”.

”It might be not a direct invasion, but instead ... recognition, then maybe dragging on some days or weeks before Russian so-called ‘peacekeepers’ enter Luhansk and Donetsk occupied territories,” the official said. “Then it’s a grey zone, where you are not sure if that triggers sanctions, especially for for some European Union countries which are further from from the front line.”

[Silent Hunter]

To quote Dune, "Those hair-splitters up there will take any point".

[Hindsight was 2020]

If Vaccinated Russian Bear could contain his giddiness about the invasion of a foreign country, this thread would be much more bearable....

Boy VRB there are definitely more vile trolls then you on this site but sometimes you really just suck as a person

[rc18]

If Vaccinated Russian Bear could contain his giddiness about the invasion of a foreign country, this thread would be much more bearable....

Yeah if Trump had successfully stolen the 2020 election I suppose he would have just given Ukraine to Putin without a fight.

Pretty dumb point tbh. Assuming Putin does invade, of the last three presidents Trump will be the only one under whom Ukraine didn't lose any more territory.

[jaichind]

Of course, if there are sanctions Russia will come back with "where are the sanctions on the countries that recognized Kosovo independence?"   I doubt there will be the unity in the Western alliance to impose any sanctions anyway.