Canada Federal Representation 2024

[Krago]

How the hell did you folks figure out the poll-by-poll results for Aurora--Oak Ridges--Richmond Hill and London North Centre?

[King of Kensington]

Would the Tories have a shot with a federal Langara-Quilchena riding?  My guess is there would be a lot of blue patches but the Liberals would still have won the most recent elections.

A federal Langara-Quilchena type riding (aka Dunbar, Arbutus, Shaughnessy, Oakridge, Marpole), I would assume to be somewhat Conservative leaning, because those areas are predominantly zoned for single-family dwellings on large lots. Good representation of the 'high-income' neighborhoods of Vancouver that are contrasted with other neighborhoods.

Would have to crunch the numbers on stats, but demographically/neighborhood wise, it would probably be analogous to a 'BC/western' version of Toronto St Paul's or Eglinton-Lawrence. My best guess would that it would have gone CPC in 2011 and 2019, but LPC in 2015?

It's also the site of voting strength for the centre-right BC Liberals, and the municipal NPA. A strong fit for 'Red Tory - Lawyer/educated professional' candidates.

2019 has JWR factor though. 

[emmettmark]

Would the Tories have a shot with a federal Langara-Quilchena riding?  My guess is there would be a lot of blue patches but the Liberals would still have won the most recent elections.

A federal Langara-Quilchena type riding (aka Dunbar, Arbutus, Shaughnessy, Oakridge, Marpole), I would assume to be somewhat Conservative leaning, because those areas are predominantly zoned for single-family dwellings on large lots. Good representation of the 'high-income' neighborhoods of Vancouver that are contrasted with other neighborhoods.

Would have to crunch the numbers on stats, but demographically/neighborhood wise, it would probably be analogous to a 'BC/western' version of Toronto St Paul's or Eglinton-Lawrence. My best guess would that it would have gone CPC in 2011 and 2019, but LPC in 2015?

It's also the site of voting strength for the centre-right BC Liberals, and the municipal NPA. A strong fit for 'Red Tory - Lawyer/educated professional' candidates.

2019 has JWR factor though. 

Hmmm true - could be wrong, but I'd still be rather confident saying that the conservatives would win a hypothetical Vancouver Southwest (Quilchena/Langara) from eyeballing the poll shapefiles on election atlas.

JWR's voting strength was always North of 16th avenue, and I'd assume she'd run against Joyce Murray in the Point Grey - Fairview riding. Funnily enough, Joyce Murray replaced JWR in cabinet when the latter was expelled by Trudeau.

[King of Kensington]

Joyce Murray was there first though and JWR would have opted for the open seat (likely the southern one).   They would have run directly against each other.  Had JWR run in the south, yes, the Conservatives would likely have won in 2019.

[emmettmark]

Celebrating the half-way point before I'll be able to post links/screenshots of maps!

Given prior discussion about changing riding borders in Calgary, and the battles over VRA congressional districts south of the border, I was wondering the feasibility of drawing a 'Chinese/Asian-Canadian influence' riding in Alberta?

Per the 2016 Census, East and Southeast Asian-Canadians comprise upwards of 400 000 Albertans / over 10% of provincial population. Yet, Alberta has never elected an MP from an East or Southeast Asian background.

2021 Census data on ethnocultural diversity won't be released until October 2022, but judging from trends, I'd only expect this community to continue growing rapidly.

Calgary Nose Hill is currently the 'most Chinese riding' outside of Greater Vancouver/GTA. It also happens to be the 'most Chinese riding' held by a Conservative MP, after surprising losses in Richmond/Markham/Richmond Hill, last federal election. Michelle Rempel Garner might want to focus on improving Chinese Canadian outreach

Examining the three ridings of Northwest Calgary, it's clear there's a concentrated ethnic community of interest:

2016 Census - Chinese-Canadian Population / Total Population / Chinese Percentage

Calgary Nose Hill (Michelle Rempel Garner) - 24,180 / 115,795 / 20.8%
Calgary Rocky Ridge (Pat Kelly) - 14,495 / 131,823 / 11.0%
Calgary Confederation (Len Webber) -  9,460 / 122,023 / 7.8%

Given rapid community growth/continued immigration, I wonder the feasibility to create a contiguous 35-40% Chinese Canadian riding in Northwest Calgary, once data from the 2021 Census is released? Calgary went from having a 74k Chinese Canadian population in 2011, to 102k in 2016, (an increase of nearly 40% in only 5 years!)

Krago and Laddicus Finch both shared maps that saw Nose Hill take-in territory South and West of current constituency boundaries, as well as the creation of a hyper-conservative Northern Calgary/Country Hills riding. Assuming Michelle Rempel Garner moves to the new Northern Calgary riding, that might create an opening for a Chinese-Canadian MP in an even more-'Chinese influenced' Nose Hill riding?

Another speculation - who runs for the hypothetical 'Chinese influence' riding in Northwest Calgary? Josephine Pon (Calgary-Beddington MLA)? Teresa Woo-Paw (former Calgary-Northern Hills MLA)? God forbid, Sean Chu (Calgary City Councilor Ward 4)?

[adma]

Ironically, Alberta was ahead of the game in electing a Chinese-Canadian MLA--and for the Socreds in 1971, of all things

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Ho_Lem

[Krago]

Try https://censusmapper.ca/

You can create you own thematic maps of Calgary (or any other place in Canada) using 2016 Census data.

[Hatman 🍁]

Introducing Calgary-Country Hills. It's close to as Chinese as you can get, probably around 25-30%. I had to keep the population down to a minimum (89,448).

Provincially, it looks like the Chinese population is much more conservative than the rest of North Calgary. 

[emmettmark]

Ironically, Alberta was ahead of the game in electing a Chinese-Canadian MLA--and for the Socreds in 1971, of all things

Definitely - and it would be years until BC (1996), or Ontario (1987) elected their first East Asian - Canadian MLAs/MPPs. I 'did' look up the historic location of the Calgary-McCall riding, and it looks like it covers the same territory as modern-day federal Calgary Skyview, so not the assumed 'Chinese Canadian enclave'

[emmettmark]

You can create you own thematic maps of Calgary using 2016 Census data.

Oooh fun! Thanks - playing with this now

[emmettmark]

Introducing Calgary-Country Hills. It's close to as Chinese as you can get, probably around 25-30%. I had to keep the population down to a minimum (89,448).

Provincially, it looks like the Chinese population is much more conservative than the rest of North Calgary. 

Looking good 😎 - the shape certainly reminds me of many VRA House Congressional districts, south of the border. We shall see what the 2021 census has to say about ethnic diversity, when that data is released!

[Philly D.]

The only provincial Commission showing any signs of life right now is the Manitoban one. They just published their pre-proposal comments on their website. There are 12 in total. Not surprisingly, 5 are from MPs and want keep the status quo (although Ted Falk wants Springfield in Transcona.) A suspiciously named Cindy Lamoureux wants all of Amber Heights in Winnipeg North. The city councillor for Tuxedo wants it all in Charleswood. The reeve for Rosser suggest moving to Kildonan-St. Paul.

[emmettmark]

The only provincial Commission showing any signs of life right now is the Manitoban one. They just published their pre-proposal comments on their website. There are 14 in total. Not surprisingly, 5 are from MPs and want keep the status quo ( although Ted Falk wants Springfield in Transcona.) A suspiciously named Cindy Lamoureux wants all of Amber Heights in Winnipeg North. The city councillor for Tuxedo wants it all in Charleswood. The reeve for Rosser suggest moving to Kildonan-St. Paul.

Unfortunate there wasn't more engagement; 3/12 comments were even submitted after the commission imposed deadline of April 4!

I reached out to the BC Commission and they're only receiving written comments once their initial proposal is published ☹️

All in all, surprised that Manitoban Conservative MPs are advocating for the Churchill-Keewatinook-Aski riding be given special consideration, and remain below quotient. If that riding is required to be within the commission imposed +/-5% quotient principle, one would assume it takes in (strongly conservative) territory to the immediate south.

Perhaps this is a case of national party objectives being overridden by desires of individual legislators, (keep familiar constituents/communities/partisan strength)? Similar to how Republican House Congressional gerrymanders fell short in Indiana and Kentucky, because individual Republican legislators intervened out of personal interest?

[EastAnglianLefty]

I've moved on to taking a look at Quebec, from a viewpoint of trying to keep regions and MRCs together whilst staying within 10% as much as possible. I've assumed 78 seats and gone with the following basic groupings:

Abitibi-Temiscamingue/Nord-du-Québec: 2 ridings
Outaoauis/Laurentides: 9 ridings
Lanaudière/Mauricie: 7 ridings
Saguenay-Lac St. Jean/Côte-du-Nord/Capitale-Nationale : 10 ridings
Laval: 4 ridings
Montreal: 19 ridings
Montérégie: 13 ridings
Estrie/Centre-du-Québec/Chaudière-Appallaches/Bas St. Laurent/Gaspesie: 14 ridings

Transferring an extra riding to Montreal from the north-east whilst staying within 10% could I think be avoided if you were so minded, but I figure central Montreal is growing much faster so you might as well bite the bullet now.

Starting with the north-west:

Abitibi-Baie-James-Nunavik-Eeyou 88295
Abitibi-Témiscamingue 103735

No changes to either of these two seats, even though the former is oversize. In theory you can fix that by giving the former the Abitibi MRC and giving Abitibi-Témiscamingue the Pontiac and Vallée-de-la-Gatineau MRCs, but the only road connecting them to Rouyn-Noranda goes via Val d'Or. Alternatively you could extend Abitibi-Baie-James-Nunavik-Eeyou, but I think when a seat stretches from Ottawa to the Hudson Strait you are officially taking the piss. So I thought it best to leave well alone (though if anybody is a big fan of discontiguity by road, it does allow you to then neaten things up in the Laurentides.)



Pontiac-Haute-Laurentides-Papineau 117299
Buckingham-Aylmer-Les Collines 110941
Hull-Aylmer 115834
Gatineau 117923

This is more radical than you necessarily need, but given that Les Collines d'Outaoauis is effectively suburban Gatineau and that it and Gatineau are the right size for three ridings, I thought I'd give it a go.



Argenteuil-Les Pays d'en Haut 111492
Rivière du Nord 111645
Mirabel 119563
Rivière des Mille Iles 117577
Thérèse-De Blainville 120103

The first of these seats is something of a leftover, I'm afraid. Rivière du Nord gains St. Colomban and loses St. Hippolyte and St. Sophie, which makes it more coherent but makes Mirabel less so. Thérèse-De Blainville is just under 10% above the average.

Increasingly I do wonder if I should have kept Montreal at 18 ridings and added the extra seat here instead, so I'll probably go back and take a look at that later on.

[Hatman 🍁]

Not a fan of that suburban Gatineau wrap around seat. Buckingham and Aylmer don't belong in the same seat.  You've also divided up the disparate Anglo communities between Pontiac and that wrap around riding. Places like Wakefield and Chelsea should be in Pontiac if at all possible. And Aylmer has a sizable Anglo population as well, so not a problem digging into it to shore up the population.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Not a fan of that suburban Gatineau wrap around seat. Buckingham and Aylmer don't belong in the same seat.  You've also divided up the disparate Anglo communities between Pontiac and that wrap around riding. Places like Wakefield and Chelsea should be in Pontiac if at all possible. And Aylmer has a sizable Anglo population as well, so not a problem digging into it to shore up the population.

On the numbers, you could swap Buckingham, Masson-Angers and L'Ange-Gardien for Pontiac and La Vallée de la Gatineau MRCs. Would that fix the issue?

[EastAnglianLefty]

Mauricie/Lanaudière



St. Maurice-Champlain 116115
Trois Rivières 117657
Berthier-Maskinongé 103259
Joliette 104737
Montcalm-Mascouche 118746
Repentigny 119204
Terrebonne 119944

Comparatively limited changes here required to conform to MRC boundaries. The last three seats are entirely unchanged, except I renamed Montcalm given that Mascouche is getting on for half the electorate.

Berthier-Maskinongé pulls out of suburban Trois Rivières, which means it needs to gain electors from Joliette. I've taken them from the north, you could alternatively take them from Joliette's outskirts.

North East Quebec



Louis-Hébert 113946
Québec 116684
Beauport-Limoilou 108986
Charlesbourg-Haute St Charles 110713
Louis-St Laurent 118542

Beauport-Limoilou expands so that Quebec City is now divided between only five ridings rather than 5.5.* Otherwise relatively minimal changes.

*Doing this means you can't treat Capitale-Nationale as its own sub-region for 7 ridings. YMMV.



Portneuf-Jacques Cartier 114775
Côte de Beaupré-Ile d'Orleans-Charlevoix-La Baie 108634
Saguenay 116109
Lac Saint Jean 107719
Manicouagan-Le Fjord du Saguenay 105492

In general the changes here get more radical as you move north and east. Fundamentally, Saguenay-Lac Jean is too small for three ridings and I don't believe special geographic circumstances can be said to apply to either Jonquière or Chicoutimi-Le Fjord. You could make a case that they should apply to Manicouagan, but you don't have to go that far beyond its borders to get within 10%.

I've gone for unifying Chicoutimi and Jonquière in a single riding. I would imagine this would be quite unpopular?

[EastAnglianLefty]

Laval

Alfred-Pellan 113163
Marc-Aurèle-Fortin 104646
Vimy 108773
Laval-Les Iles 111784

There's a minor adjustment of the boundary between Alfred-Pellan and Vimy, the other two ridings are unchanged.

Montreal

Pierrefonds-Dollard 109497
Lac-Saint-Louis 110093
Dorval-Lachine-La Salle 111171
Saint-Laurent 102104
Mont-Royal 113092
Outremont 104279
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce-Westmount 101227
LaSalle-Emard-Verdun 101838
Point-Saint-Charles-Saint-Henri--Île-des-Soeurs 115534
Ville-Marie-Laurier-Sainte-Marie 102728
Rosemont-La-Petite-Patrie 103640
Plateau-Mont-Royal 103903
Papineau 104671
Ahuntsic-Cartierville 99613
Bourassa 105637
Saint-Leonard-Saint-Michel 103605
Hochelaga 108055
La-Point-de-l'Ile 102263
Honoré-Mercier 101315

Having chosen to add an extra riding on the island, you need somewhat more extensive changes than if you stick at 18, but I've tried to concentrate those in the centre as much as possible, with the outer ridings seeing minimal changes. Italicised ridings are entirely unchanged.

The new seat is Plateau-Mont-Royal, with everything else having a reasonably obvious successor. I'm moderately happy with this, but here are a few niggles in no particular order:

• I'm not wild about that division of LaSalle. You can avoid it by putting Côte Saint-Luc in with Dorval instead and shuffling things round, but that feels a little disruptive
• I get the impression Parc-Extension isn't a good fit with Mont-Royal
• Similarly, Papineau's western extension somehow looks off
• The tail of Plateau-Mont-Royal is probably a bit awkward.

[emmettmark]

Nova Scotia maps just dropped! Interesting choices of names - any locals/Atlantic Canadians have any thoughts?

[DL]

There is some speculation that the proposed new boundaries for the Halifax riding would make it notionally NDP. Population growth in Halifax means that riding boundaries have to move inwards and cede outlying areas

https://redecoupage-redistribution-2022.ca/com/ns/prop/index_e.aspx

[DC Al Fine]

Nova Scotia maps just dropped! Interesting choices of names - any locals/Atlantic Canadians have any thoughts?

First impressions:

Very pleased they are dropping those stupid ______ Nova names.

Sydney-Victoria looks undersized.

I like that they dropped the rural bits off of Halifax.

Splitting Bedford in two is a no-no

My riding (Shubenacadie-Bedford Basin) looks like a leftovers riding, combining Sackville, half of Bedford, a third of Dartmouth and some random rural bits. It doesn't seem to serve any community of interest.

There is some speculation that the proposed new boundaries for the Halifax riding would make it notionally NDP. Population growth in Halifax means that riding boundaries have to move inwards and cede outlying areas

https://redecoupage-redistribution-2022.ca/com/ns/prop/index_e.aspx

My back of the napkin math has the NDP taking it by < 100 votes. South Shore also probably flips Liberal. Shelburne County (the part that got moved) voted just as Tory as rural Alberta last time thanks to the Liberals mishandling the fisheries file.

[Krago]

Has anyone managed to get the Interactive Mapping tool to work?

https://redecoupage-redistribution-2022.ca/rim/?locale=en-ca&prov=NS

I signed up for an account, but the first time I tried to sign in it said my account was blocked.

[emmettmark]

Nova Scotia maps just dropped! Interesting choices of names - any locals/Atlantic Canadians have any thoughts?

First impressions:

Very pleased they are dropping those stupid ______ Nova names.

Sydney-Victoria looks undersized.

Yes - I was surprised at how far below quotient (-17.89%!) Sydney-Victoria was permitted to be.

Hmmm - 'Nova names' would cut down on character count

Acadian Shore—Shelburne   -- > West Nova
Cumberland—Colchester -- > North Nova
Pictou—Eastern Shore—Preston   -- > Central Nova
South Shore—St. Margarets -- > South Nova

Though, this implies the existence of 'East Nova' haha

[EastAnglianLefty]

Montérégie can have 13 seats, with four for Longeuil and environs, five for the west of the region plus Napierville and four for the east.



Vaudreil-Dorion-Saint-Lazare 112217
Salaberry-Beauharnois-Soulange 106808
Châteauguay-Haut-Saint-Laurent  117150
La Prairie 114968
Brossard-Saint-Lambert 114286
Longueuil-Saint-Hubert 109285
Longueuil-Vieux-Longueuil 103792
Montarville-Boucherville-Longueuil Nord 109422
Pierre-de Saurel-Varennes 110168
Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot 105086
Beloeil-Sainte-Julie 110607
Chambly-Saint Jean Est 117614
Saint Jean Ouest-Napierville 115075

I had wanted to have two ridings west of the St. Laurent, but whilst that's possible it makes it more difficult to respect MRC boundaries to the west.

In Longeuil, I went for a major rearrangement to allow the ridings to match the borough boundaries. In practice, I suspect that's deeply unlikely to happen but I do think it's pretty neat.

Not entirely wild on all the riding boundaries in the west of the region. Given I'm also a little unhappy with some of the ridings in the eastern regions, it might be that it would be worthwhile to consider Montérégie along either Estrie or Centre-du-Québec.

[Hatman 🍁]

Nova Scotia maps just dropped! Interesting choices of names - any locals/Atlantic Canadians have any thoughts?

First impressions:

Very pleased they are dropping those stupid ______ Nova names.

Sydney-Victoria looks undersized.

I like that they dropped the rural bits off of Halifax.

Splitting Bedford in two is a no-no

My riding (Shubenacadie-Bedford Basin) looks like a leftovers riding, combining Sackville, half of Bedford, a third of Dartmouth and some random rural bits. It doesn't seem to serve any community of interest.

There is some speculation that the proposed new boundaries for the Halifax riding would make it notionally NDP. Population growth in Halifax means that riding boundaries have to move inwards and cede outlying areas

https://redecoupage-redistribution-2022.ca/com/ns/prop/index_e.aspx

My back of the napkin math has the NDP taking it by < 100 votes. South Shore also probably flips Liberal. Shelburne County (the part that got moved) voted just as Tory as rural Alberta last time thanks to the Liberals mishandling the fisheries file.

Someone on Twitter calculated that it went Liberal by a handful of votes. Interestingly, even with Halifax losing a bunch of territory, it will still be largely overpopulated. The NDP should try to push the commission to make it even smaller!