Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[Pres Mike]

The polls weren’t really off

The final polling average had Lula at 45%. Bolso at 37%. Tebet and Gomez both at 5%. 2% for everyone else and 6% undecided

Lula got 48%. Bolso got 43%. Tebet got 4% and Gomez got 3%. Everyone else got 2%.

That means the undecided vote was really Bolso, but because of the “Tory Effect” pollsters missed. Pollsters correctly got Lula right since the last few polls showed Lula growing because of a drift from Gomez

https://www.as-coa.org/articles/poll-tracker-brazils-2022-presidential-election

Thoughts?

[Red Velvet]

Something changed in the city of Rio de Janeiro
In the runoff between Dilma Rousseff and Aécio Neves, there was a classic class based polarization. Dilma won the poor neighborhoods in the north and west zone, Aécio won the rich neighborhoods in the south zone.
In 2022, it was different

Well, that was anticipated by us here though. We always said that Rio wouldn’t follow the usual class logics and the wealthier areas (except Barra da Tijuca, which would ALWAYS be the stereotype of PSDB —> Bolsonaro voters) would be the most pro-Lula.

PT is much more appealing to poor voters in Rio when the counterpoint is PSDB, which is the party of center-right uncharismatic people who don’t know how to speak to people.

With the rise of Bolsonaro as the representative of the new right, this logic changes though. It’s PT that gets perceive as more of “political establishment” instead of the disrupting force that was always their feature until 2014 or so. And the Rio voter is way more populist in general, especially in comparison to the anti-populism from São Paulo.

There are a ton of people in Rio who voted for Lula in the past and now voted for Bolsonaro and a ton of people who never voted for PT doing it for the first time. And language, the way you present yourself is key for that imo.

I said before that someone on Baixada Fluminense once told me was confident of a Bolsonaro win because Lula was supposedly the candidate of university students only. That obviously is more of a Rio-only logic BUT it should be underestimated how the class lines changed overall IMO

Overall, the POOREST segments who get 1 minimum wage or less are clearly still the biggest left stronghold. That said, I think you cannot deny Bolsonaro made ground with lower middle class segments who are able to live mostly comfortable in terms of their basic needs although they don’t get much else. And it’s that kind of voter, who’s not that concerned about economic needs anymore when most of their basic needs are already attended, that are driven to a anti-establishment populist rhetoric. They are angry at politicians, establishment and richer segments of society for not being richer and be able to consume more, but they aren’t really desperate at all and live their daily lives comfortably for the most part. They might even look down on the segments that are poorer than them.

It’s that lower-middle class stereotype that I associate to Bolsonaro’s support in Rio. You know what I am talking about if you’ve gone to neighborhoods in West Zone or in Baixada Fluminense.

Meanwhile, the upper classes shift (talking about Rio de Janeiro specifically!) wasn’t significant yet to compensate for this, with rich areas in Barra da Tijuca and Recreio dos Bandeirantes still  voting overwhelmingly on economic interests and going hard for Bolsonaro.

It’s in the South Zone areas (Ipanema, Leblon, Copacabana, Botafogo, Lagoa, Laranjeiras, etc) where we see the left gaining ground where it didn’t have prior. And even in Copacabana/Ipanema I think the margins for Lula needed to be much bigger as well to compensate, but there’s still people who vote on economic logic there as well. This already happened in 2018 with the smaller margins for Bolsonaro but it’s more visible in this election where Rio was actually competitive. Having Freixo/PSOL as the face of the Rio left probably accelerated the trend.

Honestly, future looks bleak as hell with the collapse of parties like MDB, PSDB, etc giving full opening to PL and UNIÃO. It’s like the physiological non-ideological Centrão evolved to a far-right flavored Centrão and no one else other than PT really existed as the alternative to that monster. It sounds hard to balance a scenario where you lead with poorest segments and increasingly become more popular with some wealthy segments too, leaving a reactionary middle class hating you in the in-between.

[Badger]

So for those of us who don't follow Brazilian politics particularly closely, what are your Collective guesstimates for the likely outcome of the runoff?

[Red Velvet]

99,99% counted:

Lula 48,43%
Bolsonaro 43,20%

I think it looks like a Lula win in the runoff but much closer than anticipated by the polls.

I give Lula a margin of 55-49 between his best and worst case scenarios. 52% on the average my initial prediction I guess.

Bolsonaro between 51-45. Average of 48%. But that’s only based on these 1st round support numbers. We don’t know how runoff will shape things.

Based on past 1st round result trends, it really looks like it could be Lula 52,5% vs Bolsonaro 47,5%. But again, a whole new campaign starts so we don’t know anything.

[Red Velvet]

Why has Brazil become so right wing overall? Is it really all down to evangelicals??

It has always been. The fact that PT won 4 consecutive elections never really contradicted that. It’s more that the right is now finally showing their true face and are also organized.

While the left desperately needs new energy and also likes to destroy alternatives on the same camp. PT supporters are way more energized by viciously destroying alternatives on similar camp as them, Marina in 2014, Ciro after her… While actual threat Bolsonaro is not really properly attacked even on debates due to orientations of not wanting to look aggressive. When not being enough aggressive is reason why they don’t mobilize enough people lol. People like candidates with energy and who propel strength.

We are seeing the result of that behavior - PT maintains itself strongly as the main opposition like they wanted but it’s literally the only one with power lol. While it’s the far-right that benefits from that collapse instead of PT and that’s bad for ANY elected PT government because how the hell are they going to be stable government with these people inside?? Looks like Lula wins in the runoff but that doesn’t matter on any sense other than preventing Bolsonaro wins, because he won’t have the comfortable margin in congress to work with.

But that’s uncomfortable talk for them because you need to start at the very base and that takes time. And the left still didn’t accept times have changed and this isn’t 00s anymore because they are so blinded by their admiration of Lula that they think he can do miracles and automatically bring all the lower classes to vote for him or something.

[Mike88]

City of São Paulo results:

https://twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1576924916921913345

[Red Velvet]

That São Paulo map shows why what I said about Rio class shift dynamics being a Rio-only thing. Most of the country still is like São Paulo. Which doesn’t mean the Rio stuff shouldn’t be taken for granted and at least should ring some alarming bells.

A lot of what you see in Rio is result of a candidate with ZERO penetration in lower class segments being the face of the left (Freixo) + Rio being Bolsonaro’s home state.

[Pres Mike]

Looking at the polling trendlines, Lula ended up exactly as expected, while Bolsonaro overperformed by around 7 points. So it seems like he swept the undecideds and got the votes of a few people who said they'd vote third party (Gomes underperformed by 2 points and Tebet by 1). Perhaps because of a social desirability bias against telling pollsters you support Bolsonaro? Brazilian posters let me know if that's a thing.

The final polling average had Lula at 45%. Bolsonaro at 37%. Tebet and Gomez both at 5%. Rest of the parties got 2%. Undecided at 6%

The results were Lula at 48%, Bolso at 45%, Tibet at 4% and Gomez at 3%. The rest of the parties were 2%

Looks like Bolso sweep the undecided vote. Perhaps Brazil also suffers from the “Tory Effect” where voters are wary of telling pollsters they are voting conservative.

The last 2 polls had Lula rising from Gomez voters switching which did happen.

I expect Lula to win 52-55% in round 2. He’ll get the Gomez vote and maybe another point from Tibet. I’m not an expert on Brazil politics so I can’t speak on the 2% between the minor parties

[Pres Mike]

So for those of us who don't follow Brazilian politics particularly closely, what are your Collective guesstimates for the likely outcome of the runoff?

Most likely outcome at the moment is 52-48% Lula win

That said, Lula winning up to 55% wouldn’t be out the question.

[Pres Mike]

I never bought Bolsonaro would be under 40%, though he even outdid my prediction here. Polls underestimated him. Sounds familiar, doesn't it?

This really feels like US 2020 redux.

Brazil politics mirror American politics greatly

The progressive party keeps winning elections under a charismatic leader. His successor, a women, is politically weaker. The conservatives paint her as a devil until a wanna be fascist wins power, sweeping out the old conservative guard. A monster of their own making.

A respected elder statement runs to restore normalcy only for the fascist to over perform polls

[Pres Mike]

Looking at these results it seems had Lula not run then Bolsonaro would have won re-election in the second round.

Probably. Just like how Trump would have won re-election against anyone but Biden

[DavidB.]

Did crime actually decrease under Bolsonaro?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Rio has been electorally very weird (even for Brazil) for a long time: it has never been a 'typical' big city and has always been prone to demagogic politics of one shade or another. There was a time when this benefited the PT somewhat, but that is now long past - a distant memory. It is worth looking at the results last time:

[CumbrianLefty]

Looking at the polling trendlines, Lula ended up exactly as expected, while Bolsonaro overperformed by around 7 points. So it seems like he swept the undecideds and got the votes of a few people who said they'd vote third party (Gomes underperformed by 2 points and Tebet by 1). Perhaps because of a social desirability bias against telling pollsters you support Bolsonaro? Brazilian posters let me know if that's a thing.

The final polling average had Lula at 45%. Bolsonaro at 37%. Tebet and Gomez both at 5%. Rest of the parties got 2%. Undecided at 6%

The results were Lula at 48%, Bolso at 45%, Tibet at 4% and Gomez at 3%. The rest of the parties were 2%

Looks like Bolso sweep the undecided vote. Perhaps Brazil also suffers from the “Tory Effect” where voters are wary of telling pollsters they are voting conservative.

The last 2 polls had Lula rising from Gomez voters switching which did happen.

I expect Lula to win 52-55% in round 2. He’ll get the Gomez vote and maybe another point from Tibet. I’m not an expert on Brazil politics so I can’t speak on the 2% between the minor parties

Which hasn't actually been a thing in the UK since the 1990s. But whatever.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Recent Brazilian politics is only very superficially similar to recent American politics.

Politically, socially and culturally, the average Brazilian person and voter is much more right-wing/conservative than the average American person and voter. Brazil is a right-wing country overall. America is not a right-wing country overall.

To me, Lula winning the runoff doesn't even mean much at this point. Brazil's Congress is firmly in the grip of the right. Bolsonarismo is dominant in Brazil. Just sad.

But I'm not surprised. Brazil is gonna Brazil.

[CumbrianLefty]

Yes, but *why* is it so right wing?

[Red Velvet]

Recent Brazilian politics is only very superficially similar to recent American politics.

Politically, socially and culturally, the average Brazilian person and voter is much more right-wing/conservative than the average American person and voter. Brazil is a right-wing country overall. America is not a right-wing country overall.

To me, Lula winning the runoff doesn't even mean much at this point. Brazil's Congress is firmly in the grip of the right. Bolsonarismo is dominant in Brazil. Just sad.

But I'm not surprised. Brazil is gonna Brazil.

Only if you define right-left on a cultural/social only level, because there’s no way of matching US right-wing levels if you’re talking economically. Average Americans don’t really get how economically radically conservative they sound even when talking with people on the outside.

But that’s the case of all Latin America tbh, to different levels. For the average US person, the average Latin American is bound to be way more socially conservative and economically left-wing. If anything Lula can win because of economic nostalgia for his government, while a bunch of woke stuff would do more damage and motivate Bolsonaro voters instead of helping the left.

[Red Velvet]

Yes, but *why* is it so right wing?

Stronger religious and family values. It’s that kind of conservatism that’s absurdly strong here instead of the business market types. Which is why the right is bound to be a stronger force when represented by Bolsonaro instead of the PSDB types.

[Sir Mohamed]

Any explanation why the polls underestimated Bolsonaro that much? Is that similar to Trump? Some voters just not telling pollsters their actual voting intention or are Bolsonaro voters harder to reach?

Perhaps a runoff is still better than Lula barely cracking 50%, because Bolsonaro would have challenged that. I just hope Lula wins the runoff by at very least 53-47%.

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

Overall, the POOREST segments who get 1 minimum wage or less are clearly still the biggest left stronghold. That said, I think you cannot deny Bolsonaro made ground with lower middle class segments who are able to live mostly comfortable in terms of their basic needs although they don’t get much else. And it’s that kind of voter, who’s not that concerned about economic needs anymore when most of their basic needs are already attended, that are driven to a anti-establishment populist rhetoric. They are angry at politicians, establishment and richer segments of society for not being richer and be able to consume more, but they aren’t really desperate at all and live their daily lives comfortably for the most part. They might even look down on the segments that are poorer than them.

It’s that lower-middle class stereotype that I associate to Bolsonaro’s support in Rio. You know what I am talking about if you’ve gone to neighborhoods in West Zone or in Baixada Fluminense.

Honestly, future looks bleak as hell with the collapse of parties like MDB, PSDB, etc giving full opening to PL and UNIÃO. It’s like the physiological non-ideological Centrão evolved to a far-right flavored Centrão and no one else other than PT really existed as the alternative to that monster. It sounds hard to balance a scenario where you lead with poorest segments and increasingly become more popular with some wealthy segments too, leaving a reactionary middle class hating you in the in-between.

This all sounds very much like the US and the GOP.

Yes, but *why* is it so right wing?

Stronger religious and family values. It’s that kind of conservatism that’s absurdly strong here instead of the business market types. Which is why the right is bound to be a stronger force when represented by Bolsonaro instead of the PSDB types.

Brazil might be more culturally secular-rational than the rest of Latin America, but it’s still way more conservative on that metric than anywhere in the Anglosphere.

[Oryxslayer]

I think it's very important to zoom-out from the number-crunching and campaign minutiae when discussing the 1st round results:

• Some eight years ago, Dilma's government engaged in extremely stupid heterodox meddling in central bank operations right around the time that commodity prices fell off of a cliff. Brazil's economy suffered a massive increase in unemployment and a burst of inflation. It has yet to recover from this severe recession. People continue to talk about "nostalgia" for Lula's presidency but this period is remembered by far more voters and it will tend to be attributed to...the PT and even Lula.
• Subsequently, Dilma Rousseff was impeached from office on trumped-up charges that anyone reasonable would view as being a soft "coup d'etat". There, was quite literally, an orchestrated campaign against her and those behind the campaign imposed radical constitutional reforms, and austerity on Brazil.
• Shortly after this, Lula was barred from running for President and imprisoned as part of an orchestrated campaign to throw the election towards the right. He was released from prison three years ago.
• In the election that Lula was barred from running in, the left was reduced to a rump and Haddad was crushed by over a ten point margin against a candidate widely despised by Brazilians. Just about anyone else would have made the election close, Ciro Gomes could have defeated Bolsonaro.
• Two years ago, it was considered a "good performance" that Boulos lost Sao Paulo mayoral election by 20 points and that Manuela d'Avila lost by 10 points in Porto Alegre. This, more or less, was a repeat of Haddad's disastrous performance. Lula won both cities by 10 points tonight.

Lula and, by extension, PT, PSOL and associated allies have risen from the dead to remain the only relevant opposition to fascist-flavored right-wing populism in Brazil. Lula was in prison. He will probably be President. Anyone who fails to see this as one of history's great comebacks is far too focused on the present, cannot see the big picture.

The one caveat to keep in mind is that if Lula was allowed to run in 2018, all of this could have been avoided. He probably would have crushed Bolsonaro, albeit not to the extent that polls predicted. He probably would have been lauded for his response to the pandemic simply because he wouldn't have implied that people dying of COVID are congenital weaklings deserving of such a fate. He then would have likely sailed to an easy re-election, in spite of all of the recent turbulence in the world. The main actors in Brazil responsible for this nightmare are Sergio Moro and elements in the judiciary that are crooked and vile. Bolsonaro is horrible, yes, but he was enabled by them and likely couldn't have become President without them...

Why did Haddad perform so badly in 2018 relative to any other potential candidate?

It's more that Lula is a very strong candidate than Haddad having been a weak one; if anything when you consider how much Dilma had become reviled Haddad actually performed quite strongly. DFB's point that Brazilian politics has polarized into a battle between PT-ism and Bolsonarismo, and so Lula (and his party) are the only real opposition, is true and was already substantially true by 2018.

Every comment in this chain is important, but I feel it is missing the key hinge underpinning everything. That all said, I know very little about Brazilian politics and have more knowledge about other South American systems, so I may be attempting apples to oranges comparisons here.

Brazil, likes most of South America these days, is a collapse-party personality driven system. The differing electoral rules for various levels of government + the two round runoff for high office that is prominent across South America has combined with past political traumas that differ by country to consistently weaken 'old' parties. We now talk about leaders and their various political followings  and their bases, but these "Caudillos" often struggle to rule because of how the legislative rules ensure a multitude of seemingly incompatible political factions (which at times requires buying people off).

Lula is the king of this system in Brazil. Lula has a personal brand bigger than any other, and has governed modern Brazil through good, bad, and worse. PT therefore has an identity clearer and stronger than any other. However, because Lula is just one prominent actor within the system, his past wins may not be the utter partisan triumphs some imagine them today. This showed itself again: Lula's personal brand is the strongest around, looking further down the ladder of power reveals just how little that brand carries over to where other factions have their own personal brands.

[Sebastiansg7]

Quoting in this forum is a nightmare, I literaly have no idea how to do it properly.

Anyways, I wanted to reply to a comment about Pentecostals. I've known my fair share of pentecostals, starting from members of my family, and I've even visited one of the "temples" of the "Iglesia Universal del Reino de Dios" (Universal Church of the Kingdom of God), a Brazilian mega church that has several "temples" here in Colombia. They even used to had a TV program that lasted for about 2 hours, in which a preacher would answer questions from the public, pray, and go in long rants. The guy was Brazilian as well.

Besides preaching extremely conservative values (and when I say extreme, I mean it), to the point of not only opposing same-sex marriage for example, but the idea of homosexuality itself, and to the point of prohibiting women from wearing pants, and asking them to wear only long skirts... those type of churches also preach a sort of prosperity gospel that American forumers must be very familiar with.

This kind of rethoric as we know, downplays structural reasons for poverty, and makes it seem that it all comes down to personal responsability, virtue, and so on. So in the end those who are rich are rich because they deserve all of their wealth, and those who are poor are poor because they have not done enough.

So this combination of extreme, ancient conservative values, and the prosperity gospel I just talked about, leads to a very very right-wing electorate among members of the lower-middle class and even the lower class who go to those places.

[Sebastiansg7]

I also wanted to ask what is the reason why the southernmost part of Rio Grande do Sul shifted to the left so strongly this time? essentially all those municipalities that are close or border Uruguay...

How are those areas different from the rest of the state? are they poorer?

[Sorenroy]

I think my biggest concern going into the runoff is what election evening will look like on the 30th. We already saw Bolsonaro overperforming by five percent early yesterday before gradually losing ground to later-reporting Lula areas. If the election is close enough and there really is a threat of some sort of anti-democratic action by Bolsonaro and his supporters, they will likely (like Trump) use the mirage of an early Bolsonaro lead to enact whatever plan they might have in the works.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

In the congress elections, Bolsonaro allies seem poised to hold on to a majority, although very, very slim:

Chamber of Deputies:

  99 PL
  59 União Brasil
  47 PP
  41 Republicans
  12 Podemos
258 Bolsonaro allies (50.3%)
  80 PT
  14 PSOL/REDE
  14 PSB
108 Lula allies (21.1%)
  42 MDB
  42 PSD
  18 PSDB
  17 PDT
  28 Others

Senate:

13 PL
12 União Brasil
  7 PP
  6 Podemos
  3 Republicans
41 Bolsonaro allies (50.6%)
  9 PT
  1 REDE
  1 PSB
11 Lula allies (13.6%)
10 PSD
10 MDB
  4 PSDB
  2 PDT
  1 Cidadania
  2 Others

I think that the allies numbers seem correct, but feel free to correct them if there's some mistake in a party support

Eeeesh. That is brutal.

Of course afaik Brazilian party allegiances are rather fluid and usually elected Presidents manage to cobble together a governing majority regardless of nominal ideology.

Yeah, looking at it there's definitely some less hard-right parties, at least nominally, that could be chipped away from the Bolsonaro Bloc.