Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[Red Velvet]

New Ipec presidential poll:

Total votes:
Lula (PT) - 51% (=)
Bolsonaro (PL) - 42% (-1)
Blank/null - 5% (+1)
Undecided - 2%

Valid votes:
Lula (PT): 55% (=)
Bolsonaro (PL): 45% (=)

So still no change even after a week. Granted, I think IPEC is overestimating Lula by two points or so but will be interesting to track it until the Election Day. The trend is more important than the number.

As long as Lula keeps at least 53% in that poll I think it’s good sign for him. Meanwhile Datafolha seems to have adjusted closer to where I predicted with the Lula 53% number (I said Lula 52,5% based on 1st round)

[Red Velvet]

Economist poll of polls. I am not aware of any polls that has the race as tied

I did some quick searching and none of the major pollsters have released a tied poll. Heres the link by the way.

https://www.economist.com/interactive/brazil-2022

The own model doesn’t show a poll where the race is tied or in favor of Bolsonaro if you look at the blue and red dots…

[Antonio the Sixth]

Economist poll of polls. I am not aware of any polls that has the race as tied

I did some quick searching and none of the major pollsters have released a tied poll. Heres the link by the way.

https://www.economist.com/interactive/brazil-2022

It looks like they're doing some overly aggressive trendline extrapolation. I wouldn't take this too seriously.

[Red Velvet]

And it’s not really a “trend”, it’s mostly runoff polls adjusting after the 1st round.

[buritobr]

Yes, even if Ipec is still overestimating Lula, the today numbers are good due to the trend.

Last week, Quaest, PoderData and the adjusted Datafolha showed Lula ahead, although by a smaller margin. But these polls don't overestimate Lula.

[buritobr]

This article (in Portuguese) showed that Bolsonaro's base in 2018 was urban, and so, there was a big difference to other far-right leaders, such as Donald Trump and Marine Le Pen, who have a rural base.
In 2022, Bolsonaro's base became closer to other far-right leaders, since he declined in big cities and increased in rural municipalities https://piaui.folha.uol.com.br/eleicoes-2022/profecia-de-mano-brown

[Senator Incitatus]

There is now a humorous Wikipedia edit war (perhaps the adjective is redundant) over whether or not to include the Economist model in the list of aggregates: https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_Brazilian_presidential_election&action=history

[HidingCommentary]

Guess someone at The Economist noticed because its no longer saying a tie.

https://www.economist.com/interactive/brazil-2022

[Pivaru]

The state of Alagoas just got their fourth governor in the year which could end up being important as this is one of the states in which there will be a second round in the gubernatorial election.

They started the year with Renan Jr, a member of the influential Calheiros family, son of Renan Calheiros, a senator and former president of the Brazilian senate. Junior resigned in April because Brazilian electoral law said he couldn't run for senate if he didn't.

After resigning, there was a problem, there was no vice-governor, the guy who was supposed to occupy such position, Luciano Barbosa, resigned in 2020 to become the mayor of the state's second biggest city, Arapiraca. Due to that, the president of the Court of Justice of Alagoas, Klever Loureiro, took office while the state's legislative body tried to elect someone new.

In may, they elected Paulo Dantas and José Wanderley Neto for governor and vice-governor respectively, both are allies of the Calheiros. Today, a minister of Brazil's Superior Court of Justice (also known as STJ) decided to suspend Dantas after the police decided to investigate him for a supposed corruption scheme in which he would have diverted R$54 million. The police seized R$264,000 reais from him. The new governor is the Wanderley guy. Keep in mind, Dantas is currently running for a full term. Renan Calheiros criticized this whole operation and said Dantas was a victim of the "bolsonarista gestapo".

His opponent is Rodrigo Cunha, a senator elected in 2018. Cunha is an ally of Arthur Lira, the president of the Chamber of Deputies and a member of another important political family in state politics. The whole race is basically just a way for the Liras and the Calheiros to see who will rule the state for the next 4 years. Cunha's campaign has actually recorded an ad with Dantas' father in which he called his son incompetent, corrupt and, just for good measure, a traitor.

The Superior Court of Justice will analyze this whole thing on Thursday, until then, Wanderley stays as governor. Paulo is still allowed to be a candidate regardless of this case, but as you might be able to guess, getting caught in a situation like this generally tends not to look all that good during the campaign for an election which is less than three weeks away. So far, Dantas was the frontrunner, in fact, a poll released by Real Time Big Data a few hours after the operation said he had 59% of the valid votes against 41% from Rodrigo Cunha. Curious to see if this will end up affecting this race and perhaps even give Cunha a chance of winning.


Now just briefly giving some quick Rio de Janeiro news, it seems like Romario, the senator who got reelected this year is not going to campaign for Bolsonaro's reelection campaign during the second round even though he is a member of Bolsonaro's party. Here's the thing, Rio had not one, not two but three bolsonarista candidates running for senate, Romario, Clarissa Garotinho and Daniel Silveira. This last guy actually got into a big controversy for posting a video in which he advocated for closing the Supreme Court. Due to that, Supreme Court minister Alexandre de Moraes issued an arrest warrant in early 2021. In April of this year, the court sentenced him to 8 years and 9 months of jail time, also removing his eligibility in the process. Bolsonaro immediately issued a pardon, which got him out of jail but didn't restore his political rights.

The problem is that, despite not being allowed, Silveira decided to run for senator, being the PTB's candidate in the state. Bolsonaro didn't do much to convince him not to do it, in fact, on election day, Silveira posted a video of himself and Bolsonaro meeting where the president said "I voted for you". Romario, understandably, was a bit mad about this, I mean, even if Silveira had gotten the most votes, he wouldn't be able to take office. Due to this, Romario decided to not collaborate with the president's reelection campaign from now on, that said, he won't help Lula and said he'll still vote for Bolsonaro.

[Red Velvet]

Lots of fake news and videos starting to be dumped online.

I said that 1st round of 2022 felt “calmer” and normal in comparison to 2014/2018 but this runoff is getting to be more like those latter years.

Everywhere people talk about this election now and propaganda is on full force.

[Pivaru]

Ipec statewide polls:

São Paulo:

Gubernatorial:
Total votes
Tarcisio (Republicanos) - 46%
Haddad (PT) - 41%
Blank/null - 9%
Undecided - 4%

Valid votes
Tarcisio (Republicanos) - 53%
Haddad (PT) - 47%

Presidential:
Bolsonaro (PL) - 45%
Lula (PT) - 44%
Blank/null - 8%
Undecided - 3%


Pernambuco:

Gubernatorial:
Total votes:
Raquel Lyra (PSDB) - 50%
Marilia Arraes (SD) - 42%
Blank/null - 4%
Undecided - 3%

Valid votes:
Raquel Lyra (PSDB) - 54%
Marilia Arraes (SD) - 46%

Presidential:
Lula (PT) - 68%
Bolsonaro (PL) - 25%
Blank/null - 4%
Undecided - 2%

[Red Velvet]

Mayor of Belford Roxo, a municipality located in Baixada Fluminense (lower income suburbs neighbor to Rio City), has endorsed Lula for president.

Waguinho (União Brasil) is evangelical and has tons of support and influence in Baixada. His Wife, Daniella do Waguinho, was the candidate from state of Rio with the largest amount of votes for the federal congress.

[buritobr]

Ipec overestimates PT due to the high share of low income voters in the sample, but the good news of today is that Ipespe, which doesn't have this problem, showed 54/46 for Lula.

[buritobr]

Today, Lula's rally in the favelas of the Complex of the German in Rio de Janeiro was overcrowded, like any other Lula's rally. Lula won there in the 1st round, like he did in most of the favelas, but he wants to increase his margin. In Rio de Janeiro, Bolsonaro won the low income districts which are not favelas.
Yesterday, Lula visited Belford Roxo, a low income municipality in the Rio de Janeiro metro area, in which PT used to win presidential elections, but Bolsonaro carried it by a large margin in 2018 and he won (even though by smaller margin) in the 1st round of 2022 too.

[Pivaru]

Quaest presidential poll:

Lula (PT) - 49%
Bolsonaro (PL) - 41%
Blank/null - 6%
Undecided - 4%

Among likely voters:
Lula (PT) - 53%
Bolsonaro (PL) - 47%


50% of voters wouldn't vote for Bolsonaro, 42% wouldn't vote for Lula. Tebet voters prefer Lula (47% Lula, 18% Bolsonaro, 31% none). Ciro voters also prefer Lula (54% Lula, 25% Bolsonaro, 19% none).


Atlas presidential poll: (their first in the second round)

Total votes:
Lula (PT ) - 51,1%
Bolsonaro - 46,5%
Don't know/blank/null - 2,4%

Valid votes:
Lula (PT) - 52,4%
Bolsonaro (PL) - 47,6%

[Cassius]

Who are the Ciro voters plumping for Bolsonaro?

[LAKISYLVANIA]

And here he is supporting Maduro

venezuelanalysis.com/news/8476

before the crisis

i'd likely done the same thing.

move on next, i know for you americans this sound bad, since you grew up with sanctioning everyone who rejects or deviates from your world view.

but 2013 venezuela isn't the venezuela of today.

[buritobr]

Atlas, valid vote

Lula 52.4%, Bolsonaro 47.6%

Atlas did better than other pollsters in the 1st round in Brazil. But Atlas was not so accurate in other countries. Atlas overestimated Kast in Chile and Marine Le Pen in France.

[buritobr]

Eduardo Leite (PSDB), who is in the runoff for governor of Rio Grande do Sul, is openly gay. He has a boyfriend.

Onyx Lorenzoni (PL), the other candidate in the runoff, said that if he wins, the state would have a "true first lady".

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

And here he is supporting Maduro

venezuelanalysis.com/news/8476

before the crisis

i'd likely done the same thing.

move on next, i know for you americans this sound bad, since you grew up with sanctioning everyone who rejects or deviates from your world view.

but 2013 venezuela isn't the venezuela of today.

I oppose both Maduro and sanctions. It's not that hard to do.

[Lief 🗽]

My god, I don't usually disagree with the ideological tilt of the Economist when it comes to America, western Europe, etc. but they really do become deranged neoliberals when it comes to South America. Disturbing stuff!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[Libertas Vel Mors]

My god, I don't usually disagree with the ideological tilt of the Economist when it comes to America, western Europe, etc. but they really do become deranged neoliberals when it comes to South America. Disturbing stuff!

Huh? The Economist endorsed Lula. I'm not sure what you're referencing here. I would also hardly call it "deranged neoliberal" to endorse Bolsonaro either.

[If my soul was made of stone]

I would also hardly call it "deranged neoliberal" to endorse Bolsonaro either.

yes of course declaring open season on the amazon for illegal logging operations and ranchers running modern encomiendas is a sign of the GLOBAL TRENDS POPULIST REALIGNMENT while lula's extremely successful social programs targeting poverty and illiteracy during his first run in the presidency were actually catering to bourgeois post-materialist concerns, how could we forget

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Leftists try to go five minutes without blaming 'liberals' for everything challenge (IMPOSSIBLE)