VA Early Voting #s

[Non Swing Voter]

More good news.  The Fairfax numbers on VPAP are very outdated...

https://twitter.com/fairfaxvotes/status/1454498164963217410

[Non Swing Voter]

If Youngkin wins this election, it will be the umpteenth example of a strong Democratic turnout in early votes meaning nothing about the results of the election. I stopped drawing any encouragement from this after NC/FL in 2016.

Except, the entire basis of Youngkin's chances is on Dems not being enthusiastic about voting and these numbers are disproving that.  We are probably looking at higher turnout than 2017...

[It’s so Joever]

Not enough, Fairfax needs to hit 40% of its 2020 early vote at least like many central VA rurals.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

More to the last point.  Fairfax is actually at a higher turnout rate among REGISTERED voters but lower when compared to 2017.  So you can see Fairfax turned out much more in 2017 than Prince William, relatively speaking.  If Dems can keep up the momentum in Prince William that will be a hidden trove of votes that will counteract any rural surge.

Prince William County is underrated in its electoral importance, imo. It is a Dem stronghold that less swingy voters than Fairfax. If Ds can get good results there that would help them immensely if Youngkin does better than expected.

Yes they need turnout there.  The turnout could vary a lot.  So it's good they are banking a lot of votes there right now.  With these kinds of numbers I don't see how Youngkin pulls this off.  I am also not seeing an enthusiasm gap with Prince William numbers like this right now.

Isn't the southeastern share of PWC incredibly Democratic, very non-white, and growing very fast? That area in particular might be inclined to less turnout in normal conditions.

Yes.  Well all of NOVA is very mixed, but I believe PWC has a high African American concentration around there.  So you get very skewed Dem pockets in PWC.  That's why precinct results matter, moreso than in say Fairfax where there are definitely also extreme pockets of Dem strength but not as skewed. 

PWC, unlike Fairfax, has large contigous sections of Trump-voting precincts, with Dem areas in the southeast and Dem areas around Manassas outvoting R-voting territory elsewhere.

[Non Swing Voter]

Not enough, Fairfax needs to hit 40% of its 2020 early vote at least like many central VA rurals.

Fairfax is now at 42% of its 2017 vote. 

What central VA rurals are at 40% of its 2020 early vote?

[Brittain33]

If Youngkin wins this election, it will be the umpteenth example of a strong Democratic turnout in early votes meaning nothing about the results of the election. I stopped drawing any encouragement from this after NC/FL in 2016.

Except, the entire basis of Youngkin's chances is on Dems not being enthusiastic about voting and these numbers are disproving that.  We are probably looking at higher turnout than 2017...

There are a number of ways that Youngkin still wins even if core Democratic voters turn out in high numbers. I'm not predicting that will happen - I have no idea what's going to happen in this race - but the record of the last several years is that early votes simply can not predict the outcome when there is such a differential between who votes on election day and who doesn't.

[Brittain33]

Don't get me wrong, I'm happy to see high turnout in Dem jurisdictions, but I've been burned way too many times by assuming it means anything.

[Non Swing Voter]

If Youngkin wins this election, it will be the umpteenth example of a strong Democratic turnout in early votes meaning nothing about the results of the election. I stopped drawing any encouragement from this after NC/FL in 2016.

Except, the entire basis of Youngkin's chances is on Dems not being enthusiastic about voting and these numbers are disproving that.  We are probably looking at higher turnout than 2017...

There are a number of ways that Youngkin still wins even if core Democratic voters turn out in high numbers. I'm not predicting that will happen - I have no idea what's going to happen in this race - but the record of the last several years is that early votes simply can not predict the outcome when there is such a differential between who votes on election day and who doesn't.

In FL there was a wide unexpected shift in Miami.  There's no evidence that will happen in say Fairfax.  Indeed, even as Miami shifted R in 2020, Fairfax shifted D. 

Also lets put this all in perspective.  NC and FL are tilt R states.  Virginia is way different.  Dems just need to maintain their numbers to win.  They built a wall in NC and FL that was surmountable because there are lots more Republicans in those states.  They are building a wall that's becoming insurmountable to the GOP in VA because the GOP doesn't have the votes. 

This is more akin to Nevada 2020 than FL/NC 2020.  Dems built too big a wall in NV for the GOP to win.  That's a counterexample to what you are talking about.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If Youngkin wins this election, it will be the umpteenth example of a strong Democratic turnout in early votes meaning nothing about the results of the election. I stopped drawing any encouragement from this after NC/FL in 2016.

Except, the entire basis of Youngkin's chances is on Dems not being enthusiastic about voting and these numbers are disproving that.  We are probably looking at higher turnout than 2017...

There are a number of ways that Youngkin still wins even if core Democratic voters turn out in high numbers. I'm not predicting that will happen - I have no idea what's going to happen in this race - but the record of the last several years is that early votes simply can not predict the outcome when there is such a differential between who votes on election day and who doesn't.

To say "There are a number of ways that Youngkin still wins even if core Democratic voters turn out in high numbers" is fair, but it's important to note that Rs also pushed early voting this time, from what I've heard. The gap is likely to be much smaller than in 2020.

[MT Treasurer]

If Youngkin wins this election, it will be the umpteenth example of a strong Democratic turnout in early votes meaning nothing about the results of the election. I stopped drawing any encouragement from this after NC/FL in 2016.

Not drawing any conclusions from this is honestly the wise thing to do given how many variables we simply don’t know. This also doesn’t tell us anything about the actual margins in those places and whether Youngkin is winning over traditionally or recently D-leaning voters (just because people picked a D primary ballot last year doesn’t mean that they’re all reliable Democrats). This also doesn’t tell us anything about how high election-day turnout will be (on either side, but especially among Republicans). I also wouldn’t subscribe to the "high turnout = always good for Democrats" assumption, even in D areas (that was disproven as well in many states in 2020).

[wbrocks67]

Not enough, Fairfax needs to hit 40% of its 2020 early vote at least like many central VA rurals.

Where is that happening?

[wbrocks67]

If Youngkin wins this election, it will be the umpteenth example of a strong Democratic turnout in early votes meaning nothing about the results of the election. I stopped drawing any encouragement from this after NC/FL in 2016.

Not drawing any conclusions from this is honestly the wise thing to do given how many variables we simply don’t know. This also doesn’t tell us anything about the actual margins in those places and whether Youngkin is winning over traditionally or recently D-leaning voters (just because people picked a D primary ballot last year doesn’t mean that they’re all reliable Democrats). I also wouldn’t subscribe to the "high turnout = always good for Democrats" assumption, even in D areas (that was disproven as well in many states in 2020).

I think the one thing that it can tell us is that both sides are engaged, which goes against the prevailing narrative right now.

[Non Swing Voter]

If Youngkin wins this election, it will be the umpteenth example of a strong Democratic turnout in early votes meaning nothing about the results of the election. I stopped drawing any encouragement from this after NC/FL in 2016.

Not drawing any conclusions from this is honestly the wise thing to do given how many variables we simply don’t know. This also doesn’t tell us anything about the actual margins in those places and whether Youngkin is winning over traditionally or recently D-leaning voters (just because people picked a D primary ballot last year doesn’t mean that they’re all reliable Democrats). I also wouldn’t subscribe to the "high turnout = always good for Democrats" assumption, even in D areas (that was disproven as well in many states in 2020).

I think the one thing that it can tell us is that both sides are engaged, which goes against the prevailing narrative right now.

lets just stick to the EV numbers like this thread is intended to do.  He's trying to siderail it.

[Non Swing Voter]

UPDATE: Fairfax was at 6,400 votes as of 1pm.

[MT Treasurer]

If Youngkin wins this election, it will be the umpteenth example of a strong Democratic turnout in early votes meaning nothing about the results of the election. I stopped drawing any encouragement from this after NC/FL in 2016.

Not drawing any conclusions from this is honestly the wise thing to do given how many variables we simply don’t know. This also doesn’t tell us anything about the actual margins in those places and whether Youngkin is winning over traditionally or recently D-leaning voters (just because people picked a D primary ballot last year doesn’t mean that they’re all reliable Democrats). I also wouldn’t subscribe to the "high turnout = always good for Democrats" assumption, even in D areas (that was disproven as well in many states in 2020).

I think the one thing that it can tell us is that both sides are engaged, which goes against the prevailing narrative right now.

I personally never bought that Democrats were not going to be engaged here (if Youngkin wins, it will be in spite of that), but even so, we all know that early voting was always going to be the preferred voting among Democrats and that they were going to enter ED with a sizable advantage in terms of raw votes. Those who vote early tend to be the most engaged/partisan voters, so it’s not surprising to see them turning out at a fairly high rate relatively early. It’s still pretty obvious that both parties need to hit certain targets on election day, however.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/fairfaxvotes/status/1454510805148373000

[Brittain33]

If Youngkin wins this election, it will be the umpteenth example of a strong Democratic turnout in early votes meaning nothing about the results of the election. I stopped drawing any encouragement from this after NC/FL in 2016.

Not drawing any conclusions from this is honestly the wise thing to do given how many variables we simply don’t know. This also doesn’t tell us anything about the actual margins in those places and whether Youngkin is winning over traditionally or recently D-leaning voters (just because people picked a D primary ballot last year doesn’t mean that they’re all reliable Democrats). I also wouldn’t subscribe to the "high turnout = always good for Democrats" assumption, even in D areas (that was disproven as well in many states in 2020).

I think the one thing that it can tell us is that both sides are engaged, which goes against the prevailing narrative right now.

lets just stick to the EV numbers like this thread is intended to do.  He's trying to siderail it.

If that's directed at me, I'm certain not trying to siderail a conversation. It's my gut reaction to anyone trying to make predictions from EVs rather than observations. But if it's against the spirit of the thread, I won't belabor the point any further.

[Non Swing Voter]

If Youngkin wins this election, it will be the umpteenth example of a strong Democratic turnout in early votes meaning nothing about the results of the election. I stopped drawing any encouragement from this after NC/FL in 2016.

Not drawing any conclusions from this is honestly the wise thing to do given how many variables we simply don’t know. This also doesn’t tell us anything about the actual margins in those places and whether Youngkin is winning over traditionally or recently D-leaning voters (just because people picked a D primary ballot last year doesn’t mean that they’re all reliable Democrats). I also wouldn’t subscribe to the "high turnout = always good for Democrats" assumption, even in D areas (that was disproven as well in many states in 2020).

I think the one thing that it can tell us is that both sides are engaged, which goes against the prevailing narrative right now.

lets just stick to the EV numbers like this thread is intended to do.  He's trying to siderail it.

If that's directed at me, I'm certain not trying to siderail a conversation. It's my gut reaction to anyone trying to make predictions from EVs rather than observations. But if it's against the spirit of the thread, I won't belabor the point any further.

No, not you at all.  Your point was definitely legitimate. 

[It’s so Joever]

To answer the questions I have received, a large number of counties have hit 40% of their early 2020 votes and two have hit 50% (Powhatan and Matthews) I didn’t get all the counties because yamps f**king reset my map even though I literally changed tabs for like one SECOND wo I gave up and did something else.

[Non Swing Voter]

To answer the questions I have received, a large number of counties have hit 40% of their early 2020 votes and two have hit 50% (Powhatan and Matthews) I didn’t get all the counties because yamps f**king reset my map even though I literally changed tabs for like one SECOND wo I gave up and did something else.

I think comparing to total vote in 2017 (or even 2020) is more informative than comparing to early vote in 2020.  We know Republican counties did not tend to vote early in 2020 (because Trump was stupid about that) so it's a lot easier for GOP counties to over perform when few people voted early last time.

[It’s so Joever]

To answer the questions I have received, a large number of counties have hit 40% of their early 2020 votes and two have hit 50% (Powhatan and Matthews) I didn’t get all the counties because yamps f**king reset my map even though I literally changed tabs for like one SECOND wo I gave up and did something else.

I think comparing to total vote in 2017 (or even 2020) is more informative than comparing to early vote in 2020.  We know Republican counties did not tend to vote early in 2020 (because Trump was stupid about that) so it's a lot easier for GOP counties to over perform when few people voted early last time.

No offense, but this seems like a coping point. And comparing to 2017 BEFORE there was a difference in voting early vs on Election Day is ridiculous.

[Non Swing Voter]

To answer the questions I have received, a large number of counties have hit 40% of their early 2020 votes and two have hit 50% (Powhatan and Matthews) I didn’t get all the counties because yamps f**king reset my map even though I literally changed tabs for like one SECOND wo I gave up and did something else.

I think comparing to total vote in 2017 (or even 2020) is more informative than comparing to early vote in 2020.  We know Republican counties did not tend to vote early in 2020 (because Trump was stupid about that) so it's a lot easier for GOP counties to over perform when few people voted early last time.

No offense, but this seems like a coping point. And comparing to 2017 BEFORE there was a difference in voting early vs on Election Day is ridiculous.

I am comparing to TOTAL vote not early vote.  The percentages are what percent of the TOTAL 2017 vote has been hit by the early vote of 2021.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/JohnRSamuelsen/status/1454542492536291339

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/HopeforVirginia/status/1454507273531822093

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/davebjerke/status/1454555897791909892