VA Early Voting #s

[Non Swing Voter]

The problem with analyzing or overinterpreting this (other than relying too much on what was always going to be an obvious D advantage in early voting that could also just be a cannibalization of D voters) is that it tells us nothing about whether Youngkin has made dramatic inroads into Democratic communities/rapidly D-trending areas. "High turnout in Richmond metro/outer NoVA" doesn’t mean much if McAuliffe's doing 15 points worse than Biden in these counties. "High turnout" in D/R areas isn’t good per se if the new/energized voters are likely to turn out against your party (also what happened in 2020 in IA/MT/Miami-Dade/etc.).

True, but beyond the Fox poll there isn’t any indication that Youngkin has done this

Yup, and lol at thinking T-Mac is doing 15 points worse in Arlington and Fairfax.  How utterly ridiculous.

[Non Swing Voter]

Polls don't really miss by a ton when Trump isn't on the ballot.

So Northam won by 3 points in 2017?

[BG-NY]

Polls don't really miss by a ton when Trump isn't on the ballot.

So Northam won by 3 points in 2017?

I meant massive errors in favor of republicans. Otherwise standard polling errors exist, but he is the only person with an actual Bradley Effect.

[Non Swing Voter]

Polls don't really miss by a ton when Trump isn't on the ballot.

So Northam won by 3 points in 2017?

I meant massive errors in favor of republicans. Otherwise standard polling errors exist, but he is the only person with an actual Bradley Effect.

I consider 6 points to be a pretty massive error in favor of the republican.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Looking at the early voting numbers, either the polls are headed for a huge miss, or election day turnout, especially in much of rural VA is going to be massive.

We all know it's the former.  The new FoxNews poll showing Youngkin up 8 is complete trash.  It's funny how the GOP trashed polls all of 2020 and now suddenly we need to take them at face value.  

That works both ways, though.  The party that believed in the polls throughout 2020 is now disregarding them. 

That doesn't mean I think this poll is accurate; I don't.  That also doesn't mean I think Youngkin is going to win; I still believe McAuliffe is ahead and favored to win by a small margin.  But it's far from a done deal, and as I've said before, those of you calling this race Safe D are way overconfident.  Youngkin could win this, and if he does I will be less surprised than I was by Trump's win in 2016.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Looking at the early voting numbers, either the polls are headed for a huge miss, or election day turnout, especially in much of rural VA is going to be massive.

We all know it's the former.  The new FoxNews poll showing Youngkin up 8 is complete trash.  It's funny how the GOP trashed polls all of 2020 and now suddenly we need to take them at face value.  

Yeah, but the suggestion is still that if a Republican is up-they're up and if a Democrat has a small, tenuous lead, they may still be overestimated.

If you are correct though, Non Swing Voter, as I am absolutely pleading with any omnipotent force who is listening that you are, then it will be somewhat empowering going into 2022 that polls might be underestimating us this time. It will be some much needed hope in some seriously dark times. I really want you to be vindicated. I want nothing more in the world right now...that sounds so pathetic, but f*** it! It's true!

[Non Swing Voter]

Looking at the early voting numbers, either the polls are headed for a huge miss, or election day turnout, especially in much of rural VA is going to be massive.

We all know it's the former.  The new FoxNews poll showing Youngkin up 8 is complete trash.  It's funny how the GOP trashed polls all of 2020 and now suddenly we need to take them at face value.  

That works both ways, though.  The party that believed in the polls throughout 2020 is now disregarding them. 

That doesn't mean I think this poll is accurate; I don't.  That also doesn't mean I think Youngkin is going to win; I still believe McAuliffe is ahead and favored to win by a small margin.  But it's far from a done deal, and as I've said before, those of you calling this race Safe D are way overconfident.  Youngkin could win this, and if he does I will be less surprised than I was by Trump's win in 2016.

Lots of red avatars thought the Biden winning Wisconsin by 17 poll was trash and that the polls were generally undercounting Trump supporters (mostly because they lie to pollsters).  But claiming a county like Fairfax is going to shift 15 points is outlandish nonsense.

[Non Swing Voter]

Looking at the early voting numbers, either the polls are headed for a huge miss, or election day turnout, especially in much of rural VA is going to be massive.

We all know it's the former.  The new FoxNews poll showing Youngkin up 8 is complete trash.  It's funny how the GOP trashed polls all of 2020 and now suddenly we need to take them at face value.  

Yeah, but the suggestion is still that if a Republican is up-they're up and if a Democrat has a small, tenuous lead, they may still be overestimated.

If you are correct though, Non Swing Voter, as I am absolutely pleading with any omnipotent force who is listening that you are, then it will be somewhat empowering going into 2022 that polls might be underestimating us this time. It will be some much needed hope in some seriously dark times. I really want you to be vindicated. I want nothing more in the world right now...that sounds so pathetic, but f*** it! It's true!

Well how were the polls in California?  And have the same blue avatars who are shoving polls in our faces explained the huge miss in California and how that translates to Virginia? 

[BG-NY]

Polls don't really miss by a ton when Trump isn't on the ballot.

So Northam won by 3 points in 2017?

I meant massive errors in favor of republicans. Otherwise standard polling errors exist, but he is the only person with an actual Bradley Effect.

I consider 6 points to be a pretty massive error in favor of the republican.

Sure it's big, but the issue is there aren't a ton of quality polls. Also in VA at the end a lot of them were low quality partisan polls iirc.

For the record I think TMac wins by mid single digits.

[Non Swing Voter]

Polls don't really miss by a ton when Trump isn't on the ballot.

So Northam won by 3 points in 2017?

I meant massive errors in favor of republicans. Otherwise standard polling errors exist, but he is the only person with an actual Bradley Effect.

I consider 6 points to be a pretty massive error in favor of the republican.

Sure it's big, but the issue is there aren't a ton of quality polls. Also in VA at the end a lot of them were low quality partisan polls iirc.

For the record I think TMac wins by mid single digits.

These polls seem pretty low quality.  I think ur estimate is right.  I think there has been some movement towards Youngkin but I think T-Mac was starting out with a double digit lead and now it's down to mid single digits.  These polls are estimating Youngkin will get in the 20's among black voters and other outliers that have just simply never happened in modern elections.

[Duke of York]

Polls don't really miss by a ton when Trump isn't on the ballot.

So Northam won by 3 points in 2017?

I meant massive errors in favor of republicans. Otherwise standard polling errors exist, but he is the only person with an actual Bradley Effect.

I consider 6 points to be a pretty massive error in favor of the republican.

Sure it's big, but the issue is there aren't a ton of quality polls. Also in VA at the end a lot of them were low quality partisan polls iirc.

For the record I think TMac wins by mid single digits.

I very much l hope your correct. Oh what basis do you make this prediction?

[BG-NY]

I very much l hope your correct. Oh what basis do you make this prediction?

(1) Trends are real, VA is Dem and trending more Dem.
(2) Biden's approvals appear lower than they are from nonresponse bias (not as much as with Trump, but it's a factor).
(3) None of the polls with Youngkin leading are terrific imo.

I don't play this tea leaves crap with the early vote.

[Non Swing Voter]

wanted to also re-post this link: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/27/democrats-take-lead-in-early-voting-in-virginias-highly-competitive-governors-race-.html

There was some misinformation posted earlier about how all these early voters could be hyper engaged Republicans.  We know with near certainty this is not the case as people studying this know the profile of voters.  The early vote is largely in Dem precincts and by Dem voters.  In VA you do not officially register with a party but during primaries you select a ballot of one party or the other.  Therefore they can get a good idea of the partisan lean of voters who are voting early.  Dems have a huge lead.  They did this in 2020 as well and were spot on.  That's why when NOVA dumped early ballots at the end of the night the state went from a small Trump lead to a massive Biden lead.  The ballots were overwhelmingly Dem at almost the precise margins these same analysts predicted then. 

[sg0508]

I have no scientific reason for thinking this, but I think this time, the young voters (mostly Democrats) are being underrepresented in polls, which in the end, tilts the race to McAuliff. 

[Non Swing Voter]

I have no scientific reason for thinking this, but I think this time, the young voters (mostly Democrats) are being underrepresented in polls, which in the end, tilts the race to McAuliff. 

possibly.  there will be youth drop off for sure.  but it could skew one way.  Virginia has a lot of college towns so Dem leaning young people will probably be a higher proportion of young people overall than in 2020.

[Duke of York]

I have no scientific reason for thinking this, but I think this time, the young voters (mostly Democrats) are being underrepresented in polls, which in the end, tilts the race to McAuliff. 

possibly.  there will be youth drop off for sure.  but it could skew one way.  Virginia has a lot of college towns so Dem leaning young people will probably be a higher proportion of young people overall than in 2020.

Hopefully they turn out. What college towns are there besides Charlottesville and Harrisonburg?

[wbrocks67]

As of 10/27

Early in person votes: 616,538
Mail ballots returned: 241,050
Total: 857,588

Wednesday was now the biggest day yet of early voting, with 56.5K!

10/28 update

Early in person votes: 680,932
Mail ballots returned: 256,049
Total: 936,981

And we topped the biggest day yet again - 64K early votes on Thursday

[wbrocks67]

The problem with analyzing or overinterpreting this (other than relying too much on what was always going to be an obvious D advantage in early voting that could also just be a cannibalization of D voters) is that it tells us nothing about whether Youngkin has made dramatic inroads into Democratic communities/rapidly D-trending areas. "High turnout in Richmond metro/outer NoVA" doesn’t mean much if McAuliffe's doing 15 points worse than Biden in these counties. "High turnout" in D/R areas isn’t good per se if the new/energized voters are likely to turn out against your party (also what happened in 2020 in IA/MT/Miami-Dade/etc.).

Sure, but there is no proof that Youngkin is actually doing this. Nor is there proof that Ds are cannibalizing their vote any more than Rs are, since more Rs than usual are also early voting.

[SnowLabrador]

The problem with analyzing or overinterpreting this (other than relying too much on what was always going to be an obvious D advantage in early voting that could also just be a cannibalization of D voters) is that it tells us nothing about whether Youngkin has made dramatic inroads into Democratic communities/rapidly D-trending areas. "High turnout in Richmond metro/outer NoVA" doesn’t mean much if McAuliffe's doing 15 points worse than Biden in these counties. "High turnout" in D/R areas isn’t good per se if the new/energized voters are likely to turn out against your party (also what happened in 2020 in IA/MT/Miami-Dade/etc.).

Sure, but there is no proof that Youngkin is actually doing this. Nor is there proof that Ds are cannibalizing their vote any more than Rs are, since more Rs than usual are also early voting.

Eh, I think there's a good chance that NoVA 2021 is Miami-Dade 2020.

[It’s so Joever]

The problem with analyzing or overinterpreting this (other than relying too much on what was always going to be an obvious D advantage in early voting that could also just be a cannibalization of D voters) is that it tells us nothing about whether Youngkin has made dramatic inroads into Democratic communities/rapidly D-trending areas. "High turnout in Richmond metro/outer NoVA" doesn’t mean much if McAuliffe's doing 15 points worse than Biden in these counties. "High turnout" in D/R areas isn’t good per se if the new/energized voters are likely to turn out against your party (also what happened in 2020 in IA/MT/Miami-Dade/etc.).

Sure, but there is no proof that Youngkin is actually doing this. Nor is there proof that Ds are cannibalizing their vote any more than Rs are, since more Rs than usual are also early voting.

Eh, I think there's a good chance that NoVA 2021 is Miami-Dade 2020.

Why?

[SnowLabrador]

The problem with analyzing or overinterpreting this (other than relying too much on what was always going to be an obvious D advantage in early voting that could also just be a cannibalization of D voters) is that it tells us nothing about whether Youngkin has made dramatic inroads into Democratic communities/rapidly D-trending areas. "High turnout in Richmond metro/outer NoVA" doesn’t mean much if McAuliffe's doing 15 points worse than Biden in these counties. "High turnout" in D/R areas isn’t good per se if the new/energized voters are likely to turn out against your party (also what happened in 2020 in IA/MT/Miami-Dade/etc.).

Sure, but there is no proof that Youngkin is actually doing this. Nor is there proof that Ds are cannibalizing their vote any more than Rs are, since more Rs than usual are also early voting.

Eh, I think there's a good chance that NoVA 2021 is Miami-Dade 2020.

Why?

If polling is any indication, it seems that the astroturfed culture wars are working.

[ElectionsGuy]

Looking at the early voting numbers, either the polls are headed for a huge miss, or election day turnout, especially in much of rural VA is going to be massive.

Or... the polls can be accurate too. This early voting data is not really telling much of a story. If anything, I expected much more early vote by now.

Is the premise here that the early vote total is "large" and therefore good for Democrats? How did we go through 2020 and still we can't comprehend how Dem skewed the early vote is and how R-skewed the election day vote is? That pattern is going to continue.

[Xing]

Looking at the early voting numbers, either the polls are headed for a huge miss, or election day turnout, especially in much of rural VA is going to be massive.

Or... the polls can be accurate too. This early voting data is not really telling much of a story. If anything, I expected much more early vote by now.

Is the premise here that the early vote total is "large" and therefore good for Democrats? How did we go through 2020 and still we can't comprehend how Dem skewed the early vote is and how R-skewed the election day vote is? That pattern is going to continue.

My point is that if the polls are accurate, I would expect massive ED turnout, especially in more Republican areas of the state, which would offset the early vote.

[lfromnj]

The problem with analyzing or overinterpreting this (other than relying too much on what was always going to be an obvious D advantage in early voting that could also just be a cannibalization of D voters) is that it tells us nothing about whether Youngkin has made dramatic inroads into Democratic communities/rapidly D-trending areas. "High turnout in Richmond metro/outer NoVA" doesn’t mean much if McAuliffe's doing 15 points worse than Biden in these counties. "High turnout" in D/R areas isn’t good per se if the new/energized voters are likely to turn out against your party (also what happened in 2020 in IA/MT/Miami-Dade/etc.).

The High turnout rn in the Richmond metro is likely not very good for Democrats. It's clearly slanted towards the R leaning areas of the metro. Goochland county literally has the same turnout as Falls Church ! Now obviously dems will net more votes out of the latter than Rs will from the former.

[Dan the Roman]

Looking at the early voting numbers, either the polls are headed for a huge miss, or election day turnout, especially in much of rural VA is going to be massive.

Or... the polls can be accurate too. This early voting data is not really telling much of a story. If anything, I expected much more early vote by now.

Is the premise here that the early vote total is "large" and therefore good for Democrats? How did we go through 2020 and still we can't comprehend how Dem skewed the early vote is and how R-skewed the election day vote is? That pattern is going to continue.

Early voting is "OK" for Democrats. It is not Nevada 2014 bad. The Democrats have thrown everything at it, they have contact lists, they are getting results.

But the ratio of resources invested to results is really ominous going forward.