VA Early Voting #s

[wbrocks67]

Wasn't Larry Sabato saying a couple of days ago that early vote numbers are disastrous for Democrats and indicate extremely low turnout?

Not sure how you could really say one way or the other since there's not really a good comparison (and 2020 prez year wouldn't really be a good comparison obv)

[wbrocks67]

Voted in-person early: 62,170
Voted by mail: 22,229

About 84K votes now in.

[wbrocks67]

Voted in-person early: 62,170
Voted by mail: 22,229

About 84K votes now in.

As of 9/28:
In-person early votes: 80,351
Mail ballots received: 41,255
Total = 121,606

Nearly 40K more votes in 2 days, thins starting to ramp up.

[wbrocks67]

As of 9/28:
In-person early votes: 80,351
Mail ballots received: 41,255
Total = 121,606

Nearly 40K more votes in 2 days, thins starting to ramp up.

As of 9/29:

Voted in-person: 90,490
Mail ballots received: 49,296
Total: 139,786

[wbrocks67]

As of 9/29:

Voted in-person: 90,490
Mail ballots received: 49,296
Total: 139,786

As of 10/3
Early voting in person: 112,692
Mail ballots returned: 67,112
Total: 179,804

[wbrocks67]

Numbers seem sluggish. Alarm bells should be going off for Democrats.

Virginia isn't a huge early vote/mail vote type of state, though. Especially since this is only the second cycle they've even really done it.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1445889529718587395

[wbrocks67]

As of 10/3
Early voting in person: 112,692
Mail ballots returned: 67,112
Total: 179,804

As of 10/6:
Early voting in person: 135,076
Mail ballots returned: 87,209
Total: 222,285

[wbrocks67]

In California recall election democrats had big name people like Biden, Harris, Sanders, Warren, Obama, AOC all campaigning for Newsom. Why isn’t that going on in Virginia?

Obama never did? (besides an ad, which might be coming for McAuliffe I assume), but most of that action didn't really happen until the closing weeks of the campaign.

[wbrocks67]

As of 10/6:
Early voting in person: 135,076
Mail ballots returned: 87,209
Total: 222,285

As of 10/9

Early in person: 171,995
Mail ballots returned: 105,496
Total = 277,491

[wbrocks67]

As of 10/6:
Early voting in person: 135,076
Mail ballots returned: 87,209
Total: 222,285

As of 10/9

Early in person: 171,995
Mail ballots returned: 105,496
Total = 277,491

As of 10/12

Early in person: 198,843
Mail ballots returned: 118,986
Total = 317,829

[wbrocks67]

Total turnout in 2017 was 2.6M so we are already at 12% turnout

[wbrocks67]

As of 10/12

Early in person: 198,843
Mail ballots returned: 118,986
Total = 317,829

As of 10/13
Early in person: 216,272
Mail ballots returned: 128,144
Total = 344,416

[wbrocks67]

It's also possible the mail is to blame again-

https://twitter.com/LarrySabato/status/1448387931052388355

[wbrocks67]

I appreciate JMC analysis but why anyone would compare this to 2020 is beyond me.

[wbrocks67]

As of 10/13
Early in person: 216,272
Mail ballots returned: 128,144
Total = 344,416

As of 10/16
Early in person: 255,821
Mail ballots returned: 147,929
Total = 403,750

[wbrocks67]

State avg. per 1000 voters: 68.4

Alexandria: 79.8

Arlington: 80.1

Fairfax: 60.7

Prince William: 75.9


Fairfax is pretty much single handedly bringing down the NOVA average.  This is because sites haven't opened county-wide and it's an enormous, very congested county.  This is why the hot takes about NOVA not turning out are completely wrong.  It's obvious that Fairfax is just an outlier right now.  But it happens to be a HUGE outlier that is dragging down the whole region's average.

However, more sites open on Oct. 21, so watch the numbers explode in a week.

and given that post from the other thread, it appears the few Fairfax sites that ARE open are now seeing major lines since there's so few of them.

[wbrocks67]

As of 10/16
Early in person: 255,821
Mail ballots returned: 147,929
Total = 403,750

As of 10/18
Early in person: 284,511
Mail ballots returned: 160,179
Total = 444,690

[wbrocks67]

As of 10/18
Early in person: 284,511
Mail ballots returned: 160,179
Total = 444,690

As of 10/19
Early in person: 309,741
Mail ballots returned: 171,233
Total = 480,974

Definitely picking up. Fairfax opens 13 more satellite sites on Thursday, so that should help top.

[wbrocks67]

As of 10/18
Early in person: 284,511
Mail ballots returned: 160,179
Total = 444,690

As of 10/19
Early in person: 309,741
Mail ballots returned: 171,233
Total = 480,974

Definitely picking up. Fairfax opens 13 more satellite sites on Thursday, so that should help top.

Interesting.  The 3 Dem NOVA CDs have huge chunk of outstanding mail ballots vs. everywhere else. 

Could just be mail is taking forever - Larry Sabato posted that he didn't even get his mail ballot until weeks after he requested it. Seems to be a particular issue in the NOVA area.

[wbrocks67]

As of 10/18
Early in person: 284,511
Mail ballots returned: 160,179
Total = 444,690

As of 10/19
Early in person: 309,741
Mail ballots returned: 171,233
Total = 480,974

Definitely picking up. Fairfax opens 13 more satellite sites on Thursday, so that should help top.

Interesting.  The 3 Dem NOVA CDs have huge chunk of outstanding mail ballots vs. everywhere else. 

Could just be mail is taking forever - Larry Sabato posted that he didn't even get his mail ballot until weeks after he requested it. Seems to be a particular issue in the NOVA area.

This will be interesting.  In Virginia, it looks like they can be handed in on election day if there isn't enough time to mail it back, and that voters who never receive them can vote provisionally in person on election day and it will be counted after they verify the absentee was never received.  Expect to see a surge of drop-offs day of and perhaps the weekend before if this remains a serious issue.

And I'm sure this will just help the delays at Fairfax reporting even moreso than usual, so I expect a long night 11/2 lol.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/vpapupdates/status/1450920513270947843

[wbrocks67]

it’s obvious you have strong feelings on this race.

You don’t even live in Virginia. Glenn youngkin is a milquetoast non entity.

Why are you so against the idea that the race may be trending in youbgkin’s direction?

IDK who you're talking to but if you're talking to me, I literally just posted at tweet from VPAP about data.

[wbrocks67]

This doesn't seem too surprising, as some early voters from 2020 may be reverting back to election day voters, plus the fact that NOVA early vote centers were open over a week before they were this year.

They have another tweet for mail in ballots that shows as of right now its virtually the same split for Ds to Rs as in 2020.

https://twitter.com/vpapupdates/status/1450923499866968080

[wbrocks67]

As of 10/19
Early in person: 309,741
Mail ballots returned: 171,233
Total = 480,974

Definitely picking up. Fairfax opens 13 more satellite sites on Thursday, so that should help top.

As of 10/20
Early in person votes: 335,704
Mail ballots returned: 179,370
Total = 515,074