VA Early Voting #s

[Non Swing Voter]

There is no reason that we shouldn’t be winning this race by double-digits.  Trying to pretend it was never going to be a blowout is just sticking your head in the sand.  Denial won’t change the fact that the current political environment is absolutely horrible for the Democrats.

Youngkin wasn't a top-tier candidate, but he may have been the best candidate against a career politician like T-Mac, in that he provides a contrast.  The other thing I believe is that T-Mac isn't a personally popular candidate.  He only beat Cuccinelli by 1.5 points or so in 2013, and he's taken a hit by standing against parents involving themselves in school board issues (a stance he should have seen would not play well).  T-Mac may still win.  He's a slight fave still, as much as it pains me to say.  Youngkin hasn't quite closed the deal, and he well may not be able to.  But there's NOTHING I can think of that T-Mac can do at this point to boost his standing.  For him to be assured victory, he needs a BIG unforced error by Youngkin, and Younkin is a guy that's avoided this so far.

This post hedges all over the place.  The only reason Youngkin is a "good" candidate in any way, is because he brought millions of his own dollars to the table.  Lets be real, if that didn't happen he wouldn't have even gotten the back door nomination to begin with.  He's completely untested.  He's completely unlikable.  The only accomplishment he has thus far is barely winning a fake primary with very few voters.

[Person Man]

Great sign for the Youngkin campaign:

https://twitter.com/davebjerke/status/1453138757331439619

Likely R

[Non Swing Voter]

Great sign for the Youngkin campaign:

https://twitter.com/davebjerke/status/1453138757331439619

Likely R

There's a GOP hack on twitter claiming the spike in early voting recently is because the GOP is more engaged this time and Youngkin is encouraging early voting more than the GOP did in 2020/2017.... Yes totally, it's GOP voters inflating the numbers in freaking Falls Church and Fairfax, but oddly the turnout sits at 4% in SWVA where all the Republicans actually live...

[South Dakota Democrat]

There is no reason that we shouldn’t be winning this race by double-digits.  Trying to pretend it was never going to be a blowout is just sticking your head in the sand.  Denial won’t change the fact that the current political environment is absolutely horrible for the Democrats.

Youngkin wasn't a top-tier candidate, but he may have been the best candidate against a career politician like T-Mac, in that he provides a contrast.  The other thing I believe is that T-Mac isn't a personally popular candidate.  He only beat Cuccinelli by 1.5 points or so in 2013, and he's taken a hit by standing against parents involving themselves in school board issues (a stance he should have seen would not play well).  T-Mac may still win.  He's a slight fave still, as much as it pains me to say.  Youngkin hasn't quite closed the deal, and he well may not be able to.  But there's NOTHING I can think of that T-Mac can do at this point to boost his standing.  For him to be assured victory, he needs a BIG unforced error by Youngkin, and Younkin is a guy that's avoided this so far.

Why should parents have a say in what is taught, though?  They're not professionals in education.
 Also, last I checked, we elect school boards to make those decisions (representative democracy, much like state legislatures, Congress, etc.), so they already do have a say. 

[NOVA Green]

Side note: (And not a "Doomer"):

Been some muttering about how USPS Mail In Ballot delays might be an issue in a close election.

Any thoughts Atlas Hive?

Don't really feel like delving into the weeds of the voter TO numbers thus far, but could that potentially be a factor, especially with "Base DEM" voters who might tend to be younger and PoC that would prefer an easier method to vote (mail in ballot) vs dealing with the hassle of standing in line or dropping ballots off in official GVT Election boxes?

[MargieCat]

Great sign for the Youngkin campaign:

https://twitter.com/davebjerke/status/1453138757331439619

Likely R

There's a GOP hack on twitter claiming the spike in early voting recently is because the GOP is more engaged this time and Youngkin is encouraging early voting more than the GOP did in 2020/2017.... Yes totally, it's GOP voters inflating the numbers in freaking Falls Church and Fairfax, but oddly the turnout sits at 4% in SWVA where all the Republicans actually live...

One thing I thought of, is that Biden-Youngkin swing voters wouldn't be as opposed to mail-in voting and early voting as Trump republicans are. And Biden-Youngkin voters probably live in the blue-ing suburbs.

I still think McAuliffe wins though.

[BG-NY]

My expectation is McAuliffe by 8. I think anything less would spell disaster for the Dems.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

My expectation is McAuliffe by 8. I think anything less would spell disaster for the Dems.

Why would McAuliffe winning by 7 spell disaster for dems? That's not much different from the Biden + 10 in 2020. Dems can easily make up that 3% in a year. I'm personally expecting T-Mac + 5, which while concerning for dems, would not spell disaster imo.

[Non Swing Voter]

Great sign for the Youngkin campaign:

https://twitter.com/davebjerke/status/1453138757331439619

Likely R

There's a GOP hack on twitter claiming the spike in early voting recently is because the GOP is more engaged this time and Youngkin is encouraging early voting more than the GOP did in 2020/2017.... Yes totally, it's GOP voters inflating the numbers in freaking Falls Church and Fairfax, but oddly the turnout sits at 4% in SWVA where all the Republicans actually live...

One thing I thought of, is that Biden-Youngkin swing voters wouldn't be as opposed to mail-in voting and early voting as Trump republicans are. And Biden-Youngkin voters probably live in the blue-ing suburbs.

I still think McAuliffe wins though.

There are so few of these types in NOVA though.  Virginia has one of the most polarized electorates in the country.

[NOVA Green]

Great sign for the Youngkin campaign:

https://twitter.com/davebjerke/status/1453138757331439619

Likely R

Old gray cells and all that... but doesn't Falls Church traditionally have one of the highest TO % of any place in Virginia?

For a really small town it sure gets a ton of attention and first time I went there was way back in '94 with my GF (At the time) from NoVA who was visiting an older female friend basically a block off the main road in an old town....

Falls Church TO being high is almost akin to talking about the weather in NoVA on ED....

[wbrocks67]

As of 10/25

Early in person votes: 506,287
Mail ballots returned: 218,678
Total: 724,965

As of 10/26

Early in person votes: 559,992
Mail ballots returned: 228,652
Total: 788,644

I believe this is the biggest day of early in person voting yet (+54K)

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I think McAuliffe will win, but the margins in NOVA will decide this thing and I could easily see the race being much closer than it should be due to some folks there who would otherwise be reliable safe-ticket Dem voters just sitting the election out entirely.  Then again, suburbia often has far more reliable turnout than other areas, so maybe this will turn out to be much ado about nothing.  I really hope I’m wrong and there’s nothing to worry about here, but I think we probably only win this race by 2-3%.  

I’ve never been a doomer, I just don’t see much value in whistling past a graveyard.

There is no reason that we shouldn’t be winning this race by double-digits.  Trying to pretend it was never going to be a blowout is just sticking your head in the sand.  Denial won’t change the fact that the current political environment is absolutely horrible for the Democrats.

Youngkin wasn't a top-tier candidate, but he may have been the best candidate against a career politician like T-Mac, in that he provides a contrast.  The other thing I believe is that T-Mac isn't a personally popular candidate.  He only beat Cuccinelli by 1.5 points or so in 2013, and he's taken a hit by standing against parents involving themselves in school board issues (a stance he should have seen would not play well).  T-Mac may still win.  He's a slight fave still, as much as it pains me to say.  Youngkin hasn't quite closed the deal, and he well may not be able to.  But there's NOTHING I can think of that T-Mac can do at this point to boost his standing.  For him to be assured victory, he needs a BIG unforced error by Youngkin, and Younkin is a guy that's avoided this so far.

Strongly disagree, T-Mac really turned around perceptions of him since winning in 2013 (when I’d have agreed no one particularly liked him).  However, IIRC McAuliffe was a pretty popular Governor and from everything I’ve read did a very good job by all accounts (from a Democratic perspective, I’m sure you’d disagree with that assessment).  He was arguably the best recruit we were going to get for this race and has run a perfectly good, if unremarkable campaign.  What’s hurting him is the environment.  

Youngkin’s campaign has been a dumpster fire.  Virginia is not Alabama and it certainly isn’t a QAnon FaceBook group, but Youngkin doesn’t seem to realize that.  Short of campaigning with Trump, he’s done everything he could to piss off the type of suburban voter he needed to flip in order to actually win.  His only shot now is if enough Democrats sit this out entirely due to frustration with the seeming inability of National Dems to pass anything despite having a nominal trifecta (hence the big push this week to make folks thing we’re on the cusp of figuring everything out Re: reconciliation and passing the infrastructure bill this week when that clearly wasn’t the case).  If Youngkin wins, then it’ll be despite himself in a race Democrats were never going to win in the current political climate.

The good news for Democrats is that there a lot of the support they’ve lost is low-hanging fruit (frustrated Democrats), but the ground Democrats in general and Biden in particular have lost with Independents won’t be so easy to recover this cycle.  However, that last part shouldn’t matter in Virginia.  Virginia is all about base enthusiasm or lack thereof among hardline, anti-Trump suburban Democrats.

[Person Man]

There is no reason that we shouldn’t be winning this race by double-digits.  Trying to pretend it was never going to be a blowout is just sticking your head in the sand.  Denial won’t change the fact that the current political environment is absolutely horrible for the Democrats.

Youngkin wasn't a top-tier candidate, but he may have been the best candidate against a career politician like T-Mac, in that he provides a contrast.  The other thing I believe is that T-Mac isn't a personally popular candidate.  He only beat Cuccinelli by 1.5 points or so in 2013, and he's taken a hit by standing against parents involving themselves in school board issues (a stance he should have seen would not play well).  T-Mac may still win.  He's a slight fave still, as much as it pains me to say.  Youngkin hasn't quite closed the deal, and he well may not be able to.  But there's NOTHING I can think of that T-Mac can do at this point to boost his standing.  For him to be assured victory, he needs a BIG unforced error by Youngkin, and Younkin is a guy that's avoided this so far.

Why should parents have a say in what is taught, though?  They're not professionals in education.
 Also, last I checked, we elect school boards to make those decisions (representative democracy, much like state legislatures, Congress, etc.), so they already do have a say. 

If the parents want only what they want to be taught to kids, they can go to a charter school.

[Non Swing Voter]

There is no reason that we shouldn’t be winning this race by double-digits.  Trying to pretend it was never going to be a blowout is just sticking your head in the sand.  Denial won’t change the fact that the current political environment is absolutely horrible for the Democrats.

Youngkin wasn't a top-tier candidate, but he may have been the best candidate against a career politician like T-Mac, in that he provides a contrast.  The other thing I believe is that T-Mac isn't a personally popular candidate.  He only beat Cuccinelli by 1.5 points or so in 2013, and he's taken a hit by standing against parents involving themselves in school board issues (a stance he should have seen would not play well).  T-Mac may still win.  He's a slight fave still, as much as it pains me to say.  Youngkin hasn't quite closed the deal, and he well may not be able to.  But there's NOTHING I can think of that T-Mac can do at this point to boost his standing.  For him to be assured victory, he needs a BIG unforced error by Youngkin, and Younkin is a guy that's avoided this so far.

Why should parents have a say in what is taught, though?  They're not professionals in education.
 Also, last I checked, we elect school boards to make those decisions (representative democracy, much like state legislatures, Congress, etc.), so they already do have a say. 

And it also implies that parents should have more of a say than non-parents even though they are elected.  So if we apply that logic shouldn't people without kids not have to pay taxes for education? 

Also, a lot of the terrorists attending these school board meetings are right wing activists and paid protestors, not actual parents in those districts.

[Non Swing Voter]

As of 10/25

Early in person votes: 506,287
Mail ballots returned: 218,678
Total: 724,965

As of 10/26

Early in person votes: 559,992
Mail ballots returned: 228,652
Total: 788,644

I believe this is the biggest day of early in person voting yet (+54K)

I think you're right.  And you're going to see a spike in mail in ballots this week as they catch up processing them and people walk them in last minute to satellite offices.  I would like to see the numbers get a little higher though.  We'll pass 1 million by Election Day but the closer to 1.5 million the better for T-Mac.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/virginia-governor-race-early-vote-analysis/

[wbrocks67]

As of 10/26

Early in person votes: 559,992
Mail ballots returned: 228,652
Total: 788,644

I believe this is the biggest day of early in person voting yet (+54K)

As of 10/27

Early in person votes: 616,538
Mail ballots returned: 241,050
Total: 857,588

Wednesday was now the biggest day yet of early voting, with 56.5K!

[Non Swing Voter]

As of 10/26

Early in person votes: 559,992
Mail ballots returned: 228,652
Total: 788,644

I believe this is the biggest day of early in person voting yet (+54K)

As of 10/27

Early in person votes: 616,538
Mail ballots returned: 241,050
Total: 857,588

Wednesday was now the biggest day yet of early voting, with 56.5K!

Thank you for taking the lead on the daily updates.  I'd like to see the numbers hit 60-80K each day going forward to feel good about this.  But on the other hand people just aren't early voting as much because the pandemic is under control here.  I haven't voted yet myself.

[Xing]

Looking at the early voting numbers, either the polls are headed for a huge miss, or election day turnout, especially in much of rural VA is going to be massive.

[wbrocks67]

Looking at the early voting numbers, either the polls are headed for a huge miss, or election day turnout, especially in much of rural VA is going to be massive.

Yep, both sides seem to be engaged according to early vote, which doesn't jive with the Republican turnout edge that polls are expecting, unless like you said, there is a massive rural VA turnout on Tuesday.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Looking at the early voting numbers, either the polls are headed for a huge miss, or election day turnout, especially in much of rural VA is going to be massive.

My fingers are crossed for a polling error. It's all we have now, unless that televised Trump rally on Monday can actually change things to McAuliffe's favor in addition.

[MT Treasurer]

The problem with analyzing or overinterpreting this (other than relying too much on what was always going to be an obvious D advantage in early voting that could also just be a cannibalization of D voters) is that it tells us nothing about whether Youngkin has made dramatic inroads into Democratic communities/rapidly D-trending areas. "High turnout in Richmond metro/outer NoVA" doesn’t mean much if McAuliffe's doing 15 points worse than Biden in these counties. "High turnout" in D/R areas isn’t good per se if the new/energized voters are likely to turn out against your party (also what happened in 2020 in IA/MT/Miami-Dade/etc.).

[Spectator]

The problem with analyzing or overinterpreting this (other than relying too much on what was always going to be an obvious D advantage in early voting that could also just be a cannibalization of D voters) is that it tells us nothing about whether Youngkin has made dramatic inroads into Democratic communities/rapidly D-trending areas. "High turnout in Richmond metro/outer NoVA" doesn’t mean much if McAuliffe's doing 15 points worse than Biden in these counties. "High turnout" in D/R areas isn’t good per se if the new/energized voters are likely to turn out against your party (also what happened in 2020 in IA/MT/Miami-Dade/etc.).

True, but beyond the Fox poll there isn’t any indication that Youngkin has done this

[Non Swing Voter]

Looking at the early voting numbers, either the polls are headed for a huge miss, or election day turnout, especially in much of rural VA is going to be massive.

We all know it's the former.  The new FoxNews poll showing Youngkin up 8 is complete trash.  It's funny how the GOP trashed polls all of 2020 and now suddenly we need to take them at face value.  

[BG-NY]

Polls don't really miss by a ton when Trump isn't on the ballot.