VA Early Voting #s

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

10/28 update

Early in person votes: 680,932
Mail ballots returned: 256,049
Total: 936,981

And we topped the biggest day yet again - 64K early votes on Thursday

10/29 update

Early in person votes: 760,053
Mail ballots returned: 271,615
Total: 1,031,668

Another huge day of EV - 80k, best day yet, and 15K more mail-ins added.

Final early vote of 1.2M?

That's what it is looking like.  Additional results will trickle in and today will probably net around 100k additional votes.  Plus you have mail in ballots that will be dropped off on Election Day or come in over the next few days.

How much of the total electorate might vote early this time? 20%?

[wbrocks67]

While I have been bullish on TMAC’s chances relative to most, that will change if NoVa doesn’t start catching up relative to Central VA. I know there have been delays and the gaps are closing, but time is running out. Today and tomorrow are crucial.
Good news, rain is gone for now in NoVa.

NOVA will be fine.  It always turns out.  Please don't buy the nonsense from the habitually wrong post-deleting blue avatar from Montana who didn't even know Arlington and Fairfax were two different things.  I am going to pass by an early voting site today.  I will let you know if there is turnout. 

I am looking at the numbers themselves from VPAP, I don’t treat any Atlas poster as gospel. The big three NoVa counties all should be relatively higher by the end of early voting compared to the rurals. In terms of % 2020 turnout, they should at least be on par with the rurals. They are increasing quickly so there is time.

I mean, we just don't know though. We don't know how voting habits are changing this year. Dems normally vote more early, but Republicans have also placed an emphasis on it. So it's quite possible either way, we just don't know.

The one thing again is that Fairfax should not be treated the same as other NOVA counties since their satellite offices opened later.

[Non Swing Voter]

10/28 update

Early in person votes: 680,932
Mail ballots returned: 256,049
Total: 936,981

And we topped the biggest day yet again - 64K early votes on Thursday

10/29 update

Early in person votes: 760,053
Mail ballots returned: 271,615
Total: 1,031,668

Another huge day of EV - 80k, best day yet, and 15K more mail-ins added.

Final early vote of 1.2M?

That's what it is looking like.  Additional results will trickle in and today will probably net around 100k additional votes.  Plus you have mail in ballots that will be dropped off on Election Day or come in over the next few days.

How much of the total electorate might vote early this time? 20%?

Looking like turnout will be about 20% of registered voters.  Probably 35-40% of total turnout this year.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/fairfaxvotes/status/1454454942866059272

This tweet pegs a number on turnout today.  I voted last year on the last weekend day of early voting and the lines got bigger and bigger as the afternoon progressed.  So we could see 15,000+ today.

[wbrocks67]

Curious about the mail votes though. The counting still looks like its very slow with those. Makes me feel like there's still probably a ton sitting in transit.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

10/28 update

Early in person votes: 680,932
Mail ballots returned: 256,049
Total: 936,981

And we topped the biggest day yet again - 64K early votes on Thursday

10/29 update

Early in person votes: 760,053
Mail ballots returned: 271,615
Total: 1,031,668

Another huge day of EV - 80k, best day yet, and 15K more mail-ins added.

Final early vote of 1.2M?

That's what it is looking like.  Additional results will trickle in and today will probably net around 100k additional votes.  Plus you have mail in ballots that will be dropped off on Election Day or come in over the next few days.

How much of the total electorate might vote early this time? 20%?

Looking like turnout will be about 20% of registered voters.  Probably 35-40% of total turnout this year.

I assume that's a historic high?

[Non Swing Voter]

While I have been bullish on TMAC’s chances relative to most, that will change if NoVa doesn’t start catching up relative to Central VA. I know there have been delays and the gaps are closing, but time is running out. Today and tomorrow are crucial.
Good news, rain is gone for now in NoVa.

NOVA will be fine.  It always turns out.  Please don't buy the nonsense from the habitually wrong post-deleting blue avatar from Montana who didn't even know Arlington and Fairfax were two different things.  I am going to pass by an early voting site today.  I will let you know if there is turnout. 

I am looking at the numbers themselves from VPAP, I don’t treat any Atlas poster as gospel. The big three NoVa counties all should be relatively higher by the end of early voting compared to the rurals. In terms of % 2020 turnout, they should at least be on par with the rurals. They are increasing quickly so there is time.

In off years NOVA always turns out at a higher rate than rurals.  There needs to be stunningly massive rural turnout on Election Day to catch up.

[Non Swing Voter]

10/28 update

Early in person votes: 680,932
Mail ballots returned: 256,049
Total: 936,981

And we topped the biggest day yet again - 64K early votes on Thursday

10/29 update

Early in person votes: 760,053
Mail ballots returned: 271,615
Total: 1,031,668

Another huge day of EV - 80k, best day yet, and 15K more mail-ins added.

Final early vote of 1.2M?

That's what it is looking like.  Additional results will trickle in and today will probably net around 100k additional votes.  Plus you have mail in ballots that will be dropped off on Election Day or come in over the next few days.

How much of the total electorate might vote early this time? 20%?

Looking like turnout will be about 20% of registered voters.  Probably 35-40% of total turnout this year.

I assume that's a historic high?

Potentially.  But we've never had no excuse early voting in a Gov. race before.  So that could be why.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

10/28 update

Early in person votes: 680,932
Mail ballots returned: 256,049
Total: 936,981

And we topped the biggest day yet again - 64K early votes on Thursday

10/29 update

Early in person votes: 760,053
Mail ballots returned: 271,615
Total: 1,031,668

Another huge day of EV - 80k, best day yet, and 15K more mail-ins added.

Final early vote of 1.2M?

That's what it is looking like.  Additional results will trickle in and today will probably net around 100k additional votes.  Plus you have mail in ballots that will be dropped off on Election Day or come in over the next few days.

How much of the total electorate might vote early this time? 20%?

Looking like turnout will be about 20% of registered voters.  Probably 35-40% of total turnout this year.

I assume that's a historic high?

Potentially.  But we've never had no excuse early voting in a Gov. race before.  So that could be why.

For sure.
I wonder if the large number of early voters this time might get attention from national media.

[Non Swing Voter]

Curious about the mail votes though. The counting still looks like its very slow with those. Makes me feel like there's still probably a ton sitting in transit.

Yes, they will trickle in over the next few days and people will drop them off in ballot boxes.  The numbers aren't up to date on VPAP as well.  There re 28,000 ballots unaccounted for in Fairfax right now according to VPAP.  Not all of them will vote but a good chunk will wait to the last minute to drop off or send.

[Non Swing Voter]

10/28 update

Early in person votes: 680,932
Mail ballots returned: 256,049
Total: 936,981

And we topped the biggest day yet again - 64K early votes on Thursday

10/29 update

Early in person votes: 760,053
Mail ballots returned: 271,615
Total: 1,031,668

Another huge day of EV - 80k, best day yet, and 15K more mail-ins added.

Final early vote of 1.2M?

That's what it is looking like.  Additional results will trickle in and today will probably net around 100k additional votes.  Plus you have mail in ballots that will be dropped off on Election Day or come in over the next few days.

How much of the total electorate might vote early this time? 20%?

Looking like turnout will be about 20% of registered voters.  Probably 35-40% of total turnout this year.

I assume that's a historic high?

Potentially.  But we've never had no excuse early voting in a Gov. race before.  So that could be why.

For sure.
I wonder if the large number of early voters this time might get attention from national media.

Well it clearly shows that early voting does inspire more turnout.  If there was no early voting period I'd be more worried about this election. 

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Well it clearly shows that early voting does inspire more turnout.  If there was no early voting period I'd be more worried about this election. 

What do you see happening in the House of Delegates?

[Non Swing Voter]

Well it clearly shows that early voting does inspire more turnout.  If there was no early voting period I'd be more worried about this election. 

What do you see happening in the House of Delegates?

I'm not following that as closely.  I could see a couple of seats flipping each way canceling each other out.  The one area I think the GOP could over perform is Virginia Beach.  I think Dems will hold fine in NOVA/Richmond. 

I don't know if there are any vulnerable seats in the VA Beach area.  If so, that's probably where the GOP makes gains, if not in maybe one of the Richmond area seats as well. 

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Well it clearly shows that early voting does inspire more turnout.  If there was no early voting period I'd be more worried about this election. 

What do you see happening in the House of Delegates?

I'm not following that as closely.  I could see a couple of seats flipping each way canceling each other out.  The one area I think the GOP could over perform is Virginia Beach.  I think Dems will hold fine in NOVA/Richmond. 

I don't know if there are any vulnerable seats in the VA Beach area.  If so, that's probably where the GOP makes gains, if not in maybe one of the Richmond area seats as well. 

Ah. Thanks for responding!
The McAuliffe-Youngkin race is really stealing the oxygen. Lol.

[Non Swing Voter]

Updated numbers as a percent of 2017:

Fairfax = 39%

Loudoun = 42%

Prince William = 45%

[wbrocks67]

Updated numbers as a percent of 2017:

Fairfax = 39%

Loudoun = 42%

Prince William = 45%

And Fairfax would likely be at least 45% like Prince William if it was open earlier, too.

[Non Swing Voter]

Updated numbers as a percent of 2017:

Fairfax = 39%

Loudoun = 42%

Prince William = 45%

And Fairfax would likely be at least 45% like Prince William if it was open earlier, too.

The reason Prince William is so high is because they generally get lower turnout than Fairfax.  So that's a place where early voting has really benefited Dems. 

[CookieDamage]

I honestly think this race is tilt D looking at these early voting numbers. Not very confident as E-Day can really put a dent in Dems advantage rn.

[Non Swing Voter]

More to the last point.  Fairfax is actually at a higher turnout rate among REGISTERED voters but lower when compared to 2017.  So you can see Fairfax turned out much more in 2017 than Prince William, relatively speaking.  If Dems can keep up the momentum in Prince William that will be a hidden trove of votes that will counteract any rural surge.

[Non Swing Voter]

I honestly think this race is tilt D looking at these early voting numbers. Not very confident as E-Day can really put a dent in Dems advantage rn.

It is...  and they can't...  and it's pretty obvious but the tv pundits want to create a horserace where none exists.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

More to the last point.  Fairfax is actually at a higher turnout rate among REGISTERED voters but lower when compared to 2017.  So you can see Fairfax turned out much more in 2017 than Prince William, relatively speaking.  If Dems can keep up the momentum in Prince William that will be a hidden trove of votes that will counteract any rural surge.

Prince William County is underrated in its electoral importance, imo. It is a Dem stronghold that less swingy voters than Fairfax. If Ds can get good results there that would help them immensely if Youngkin does better than expected.

[Non Swing Voter]

More to the last point.  Fairfax is actually at a higher turnout rate among REGISTERED voters but lower when compared to 2017.  So you can see Fairfax turned out much more in 2017 than Prince William, relatively speaking.  If Dems can keep up the momentum in Prince William that will be a hidden trove of votes that will counteract any rural surge.

Prince William County is underrated in its electoral importance, imo. It is a Dem stronghold that less swingy voters than Fairfax. If Ds can get good results there that would help them immensely if Youngkin does better than expected.

Yes they need turnout there.  The turnout could vary a lot.  So it's good they are banking a lot of votes there right now.  With these kinds of numbers I don't see how Youngkin pulls this off.  I am also not seeing an enthusiasm gap with Prince William numbers like this right now.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

More to the last point.  Fairfax is actually at a higher turnout rate among REGISTERED voters but lower when compared to 2017.  So you can see Fairfax turned out much more in 2017 than Prince William, relatively speaking.  If Dems can keep up the momentum in Prince William that will be a hidden trove of votes that will counteract any rural surge.

Prince William County is underrated in its electoral importance, imo. It is a Dem stronghold that less swingy voters than Fairfax. If Ds can get good results there that would help them immensely if Youngkin does better than expected.

Yes they need turnout there.  The turnout could vary a lot.  So it's good they are banking a lot of votes there right now.  With these kinds of numbers I don't see how Youngkin pulls this off.  I am also not seeing an enthusiasm gap with Prince William numbers like this right now.

Isn't the southeastern share of PWC incredibly Democratic, very non-white, and growing very fast? That area in particular might be inclined to less turnout in normal conditions.

[Non Swing Voter]

More to the last point.  Fairfax is actually at a higher turnout rate among REGISTERED voters but lower when compared to 2017.  So you can see Fairfax turned out much more in 2017 than Prince William, relatively speaking.  If Dems can keep up the momentum in Prince William that will be a hidden trove of votes that will counteract any rural surge.

Prince William County is underrated in its electoral importance, imo. It is a Dem stronghold that less swingy voters than Fairfax. If Ds can get good results there that would help them immensely if Youngkin does better than expected.

Yes they need turnout there.  The turnout could vary a lot.  So it's good they are banking a lot of votes there right now.  With these kinds of numbers I don't see how Youngkin pulls this off.  I am also not seeing an enthusiasm gap with Prince William numbers like this right now.

Isn't the southeastern share of PWC incredibly Democratic, very non-white, and growing very fast? That area in particular might be inclined to less turnout in normal conditions.

Yes.  Well all of NOVA is very mixed, but I believe PWC has a high African American concentration around there.  So you get very skewed Dem pockets in PWC.  That's why precinct results matter, moreso than in say Fairfax where there are definitely also extreme pockets of Dem strength but not as skewed. 

[Brittain33]

If Youngkin wins this election, it will be the umpteenth example of a strong Democratic turnout in early votes meaning nothing about the results of the election. I stopped drawing any encouragement from this after NC/FL in 2016.