VA Early Voting #s

[Non Swing Voter]

https://www.vpap.org/elections/early-voting/

Looks like Dem Congressional Districts are significantly outpacing GOP ones.  No huge surprise there.

The top 4 by far are the three NOVA districts and Spanberger's Richmond area district. 

lowest by far is the 9th District (SWVA - the most republican district by far). 

The NOVA districts are averaging about 28,000 or so mail ballot requests/votes/early votes.

The SWVA GOP district is at 13,000. 

[Non Swing Voter]

Fairfax County is at 42,000 so it's close to outpacing early voting requests/votes for all of 2017 (52,000).

Alexandria is at 6,000.

Arlington a little over 10,000.

Loudoun a little over 11,000.

Prince William close to 14,000.

Fairfax City close to 1,000.

Manassas over 1,000.

So NOVA is at about  85,000 or so, a bit more when you include a few other independent cities.

[Minnesota Mike]

Didn't VA institute no excuse absentee voting since 2017? Not that anyone ever checked on excuses but still an increase in absentees is to be expected.

[Non Swing Voter]

Didn't VA institute no excuse absentee voting since 2017? Not that anyone ever checked on excuses but still an increase in absentees is to be expected.

Correct.  And even though no-one checked I think this is a big factor.  Plus they've made early voting easier.  They basically have one central early voting site in counties and then as it gets closer to Election Day I believe they will open more. 

So I'm more interested in comparing turnout by region rather than comparing it to 2017.  I am a bit surprised (but not shocked) the turnout is so low in Republican areas because I figured Youngkin would use his immense resources on a robust turnout operation.  I think he does need to get irregular voters out early because part of the Trump coalition is a lot less reliable than the Democratic coalition... especially in a state like Virginia where the Democratic electorate is going to be substantially more upscale and educated than the Republican electorate (and therefore much more likely to turnout).

[Landslide Lyndon]

Wasn't Larry Sabato saying a couple of days ago that early vote numbers are disastrous for Democrats and indicate extremely low turnout?

[wbrocks67]

Wasn't Larry Sabato saying a couple of days ago that early vote numbers are disastrous for Democrats and indicate extremely low turnout?

Not sure how you could really say one way or the other since there's not really a good comparison (and 2020 prez year wouldn't really be a good comparison obv)

[Adam Griffin]

Yes, nothing to see here thus far. If you take the percentage of requests from 2017 that weren't returned and apply it to 2021, then Virginia is already (more or less) at its 2017 EV turnout once requests are returned - that of course ignores how no-excuse EV now exists and didn't 4 years ago (LimoLiberal, ED 2017: "muh rain in NoVA")!

Reminds me a lot of how people freaked out about EV quintupling or whatever in MN after the first cycle where no-excuse EV was implemented.

Come back to this thread in 7-10 days to see anything meaningful.

[Roll Roons]

I'm going to be highly skeptical of all early voting reports. I still remember when skyrocketing early votes meant that Texas was going to turn blue.

[Non Swing Voter]

I'm going to be highly skeptical of all early voting reports. I still remember when skyrocketing early votes meant that Texas was going to turn blue.

The turnout is more clearly correlated with outcomes in Virginia.  For Youngkin to win he needs low turnout in Richmond and extremely high turnout in the rural.  Youngkin needs to cut deep into the margin in Fairfax which wont be clear by turnout alone, but if turnout is monstrous in NOVA then Youngkin can't win even if he does cut into the NOVA margins.  Also the case for Loudoun where Dem strength lies in somewhat marginal voters.  If Loudoun has high turnout it's a horrendous sign for Youngkin.

[wbrocks67]

Voted in-person early: 62,170
Voted by mail: 22,229

About 84K votes now in.

[Skill and Chance]

Voted in-person early: 62,170
Voted by mail: 22,229

About 84K votes now in.

So far, it's the ancestrally R outer suburbs/small city districts (VA-01, VA-06, and VA-07) that are dominating the in-person EV.  These seats were competitive between Trump and Biden in 2020 (Biden even narrowly won VA-07) and of course Spanberger flipped VA-07 at the congressional level in 2018, but they also delivered significant Republican margins in the state-level races in 2017 and 2019.  These are likely to be Youngkin seats, but VA-07 and VA-01 should not be Youngkin landslides.

The 3 Safe Dem NOVA seats unsurprisingly dominate mail ballot requests.  Also unsurprisingly, few mail-in votes have been returned so far. 

The lowest turnout so far is in the 70% Trump coal country district (VA-09), but the second lowest turnout is in one of the VRA districts (VA-03).

IDK what to make of all this.

[Non Swing Voter]

Voted in-person early: 62,170
Voted by mail: 22,229

About 84K votes now in.

So far, it's the ancestrally R outer suburbs/small city districts (VA-01, VA-06, and VA-07) that are dominating the in-person EV.  These seats were competitive between Trump and Biden in 2020 (Biden even narrowly won VA-07) and of course Spanberger flipped VA-07 at the congressional level in 2018, but they also delivered significant Republican margins in the state-level races in 2017 and 2019.  These are likely to be Youngkin seats, but VA-07 and VA-01 should not be Youngkin landslides.

The 3 Safe Dem NOVA seats unsurprisingly dominate mail ballot requests.  Also unsurprisingly, few mail-in votes have been returned so far. 

The lowest turnout so far is in the 70% Trump coal country district (VA-09), but the second lowest turnout is in one of the VRA districts (VA-03).

IDK what to make of all this.

What to make of it is that things are proceeding as normal in Virginia, which is bad news for Trumpkin.

[wbrocks67]

Voted in-person early: 62,170
Voted by mail: 22,229

About 84K votes now in.

As of 9/28:
In-person early votes: 80,351
Mail ballots received: 41,255
Total = 121,606

Nearly 40K more votes in 2 days, thins starting to ramp up.

[Non Swing Voter]

some places are slower with sending out ballots and large counties usually have a central early voting spot, but more will typically open up over time.  so the numbers will start to really pick up in like 2 weeks.

[neostassenite31]

If I remember correctly, in 2020 VA had a red mirage situation where the in-person votes got counted before most of the absentee ballots and Trump was almost even with Biden for quite awhile earlier on in the night.

Hopefully it doesn't get repeated this time, or else it could stir another "stop the count" moment or invite more allegations of fraud

[kwabbit]

If I remember correctly, in 2020 VA had a red mirage situation where the in-person votes got counted before most of the absentee ballots and Trump was almost even with Biden for quite awhile earlier on in the night.

Hopefully it doesn't get repeated this time, or else it could stir another "stop the count" moment or invite more allegations of fraud

R's are always head in VA at the beginning. The tide turns when the NOVA votes come in. The last close race in VA was 2014, and Gillespie was ahead for hours and hours. Eventually NOVA saved Warner, but in an actual close race it can be quite suspenseful waiting for those votes to come in.

[Skill and Chance]

Continues to be dominated by the 3 Dem NOVA districts (mail-in votes) and the 3 exurban college+ R districts that extend north of Richmond (VA-06, VA-01, and VA-07, the latter of which barely flipped to Biden in 2020).

Hampton Roads is really lagging, including the VRA district and the swing district.  The coal country 70% Trump district, VA-09, is the lowest of all, but IMO there is every reason to assume almost every voter there is waiting for day of.

[Skill and Chance]

If I remember correctly, in 2020 VA had a red mirage situation where the in-person votes got counted before most of the absentee ballots and Trump was almost even with Biden for quite awhile earlier on in the night.

Hopefully it doesn't get repeated this time, or else it could stir another "stop the count" moment or invite more allegations of fraud

R's are always head in VA at the beginning. The tide turns when the NOVA votes come in. The last close race in VA was 2014, and Gillespie was ahead for hours and hours. Eventually NOVA saved Warner, but in an actual close race it can be quite suspenseful waiting for those votes to come in.

Yes, and keep in mind VA law now allows mail ballots postmarked by election day to count if they arrive as late as Friday.  If the final result is McAuliffe by 2 or less, there is real potential for a PA 2020 situation where it looks like Youngkin has won until the weekend after the election. 

[Roll Roons]

If I remember correctly, in 2020 VA had a red mirage situation where the in-person votes got counted before most of the absentee ballots and Trump was almost even with Biden for quite awhile earlier on in the night.

Hopefully it doesn't get repeated this time, or else it could stir another "stop the count" moment or invite more allegations of fraud

R's are always head in VA at the beginning. The tide turns when the NOVA votes come in. The last close race in VA was 2014, and Gillespie was ahead for hours and hours. Eventually NOVA saved Warner, but in an actual close race it can be quite suspenseful waiting for those votes to come in.

Yes, and keep in mind VA law now allows mail ballots postmarked by election day to count if they arrive as late as Friday.  If the final result is McAuliffe by 2 or less, there is real potential for a PA 2020 situation where it looks like Youngkin has won until the weekend after the election. 

This is utterly stupid. Requiring ballots to be received by poll closing is not VoTER sUPPressION. Oregon, not exactly a red or purple state, does it.

[Skill and Chance]

If I remember correctly, in 2020 VA had a red mirage situation where the in-person votes got counted before most of the absentee ballots and Trump was almost even with Biden for quite awhile earlier on in the night.

Hopefully it doesn't get repeated this time, or else it could stir another "stop the count" moment or invite more allegations of fraud

R's are always head in VA at the beginning. The tide turns when the NOVA votes come in. The last close race in VA was 2014, and Gillespie was ahead for hours and hours. Eventually NOVA saved Warner, but in an actual close race it can be quite suspenseful waiting for those votes to come in.

Yes, and keep in mind VA law now allows mail ballots postmarked by election day to count if they arrive as late as Friday.  If the final result is McAuliffe by 2 or less, there is real potential for a PA 2020 situation where it looks like Youngkin has won until the weekend after the election. 

This is utterly stupid. Requiring ballots to be received by poll closing is not VoTER sUPPressION. Oregon, not exactly a red or purple state, does it.

I agree, especially when a state has drop boxes where people can take it day-of if they want to.  To compound the crazy, the VA constitution gives the legislature the final authority to decide who won a state level race if the loser files to dispute it after a recount.  But we probably wouldn't know which party controls the HoD for weeks either.  It also isn't clear if such a challenge would be heard by the new legislature in January or if Northam can/would call a special session before the end of December, and that could be decisive if the lower house flips.  This is just asking for a state-level election certification dispute.       

[Gass3268]

If I remember correctly, in 2020 VA had a red mirage situation where the in-person votes got counted before most of the absentee ballots and Trump was almost even with Biden for quite awhile earlier on in the night.

Hopefully it doesn't get repeated this time, or else it could stir another "stop the count" moment or invite more allegations of fraud

R's are always head in VA at the beginning. The tide turns when the NOVA votes come in. The last close race in VA was 2014, and Gillespie was ahead for hours and hours. Eventually NOVA saved Warner, but in an actual close race it can be quite suspenseful waiting for those votes to come in.

Yes, and keep in mind VA law now allows mail ballots postmarked by election day to count if they arrive as late as Friday.  If the final result is McAuliffe by 2 or less, there is real potential for a PA 2020 situation where it looks like Youngkin has won until the weekend after the election. 

This is utterly stupid. Requiring ballots to be received by poll closing is not VoTER sUPPressION. Oregon, not exactly a red or purple state, does it.

Sorry to burst your bubble, but that's changing next year

[Roll Roons]

If I remember correctly, in 2020 VA had a red mirage situation where the in-person votes got counted before most of the absentee ballots and Trump was almost even with Biden for quite awhile earlier on in the night.

Hopefully it doesn't get repeated this time, or else it could stir another "stop the count" moment or invite more allegations of fraud

R's are always head in VA at the beginning. The tide turns when the NOVA votes come in. The last close race in VA was 2014, and Gillespie was ahead for hours and hours. Eventually NOVA saved Warner, but in an actual close race it can be quite suspenseful waiting for those votes to come in.

Yes, and keep in mind VA law now allows mail ballots postmarked by election day to count if they arrive as late as Friday.  If the final result is McAuliffe by 2 or less, there is real potential for a PA 2020 situation where it looks like Youngkin has won until the weekend after the election. 

This is utterly stupid. Requiring ballots to be received by poll closing is not VoTER sUPPressION. Oregon, not exactly a red or purple state, does it.

Sorry to burst your bubble, but that's changing next year

Well that's also dumb AF.

[Calthrina950]

If I remember correctly, in 2020 VA had a red mirage situation where the in-person votes got counted before most of the absentee ballots and Trump was almost even with Biden for quite awhile earlier on in the night.

Hopefully it doesn't get repeated this time, or else it could stir another "stop the count" moment or invite more allegations of fraud

R's are always head in VA at the beginning. The tide turns when the NOVA votes come in. The last close race in VA was 2014, and Gillespie was ahead for hours and hours. Eventually NOVA saved Warner, but in an actual close race it can be quite suspenseful waiting for those votes to come in.

Yes, and keep in mind VA law now allows mail ballots postmarked by election day to count if they arrive as late as Friday.  If the final result is McAuliffe by 2 or less, there is real potential for a PA 2020 situation where it looks like Youngkin has won until the weekend after the election. 

This is utterly stupid. Requiring ballots to be received by poll closing is not VoTER sUPPressION. Oregon, not exactly a red or purple state, does it.

Sorry to burst your bubble, but that's changing next year

Well that's also dumb AF.

Democratic and Republican states are following completely different trajectories on this issue. Democratic states are aiming to liberalize voting processes, and to make voting as easy and flexible for citizens as possible, while Republican states are generally aiming to constrain the franchise by limiting the locations, hours, and mechanisms for voting.

[Adam Griffin]

Honestly, I'm supportive of ballots having to be received by Election Day (with an extra provision that ballots received post-ED will be counted if they're postmarked by the Friday before the election; to minimize potential postal issues).

This would hopefully help reduce the number of ballots that take days or weeks to count and mitigate all of these conspiracy theories about "votes being added at the last minute" or whatever. Most states send out mail ballots like 6-8 weeks in advance: that's really plenty of time to deal with them and doesn't cross into the realm of voter suppression.

[It’s so Joever]

Continues to be dominated by the 3 Dem NOVA districts (mail-in votes) and the 3 exurban college+ R districts that extend north of Richmond (VA-06, VA-01, and VA-07, the latter of which barely flipped to Biden in 2020).

Hampton Roads is really lagging, including the VRA district and the swing district.  The coal country 70% Trump district, VA-09, is the lowest of all, but IMO there is every reason to assume almost every voter there is waiting for day of.

So business as usual.