VA Early Voting #s

[Non Swing Voter]

https://www.vpap.org/elections/early-voting/

Looks like Dem Congressional Districts are significantly outpacing GOP ones.  No huge surprise there.

The top 4 by far are the three NOVA districts and Spanberger's Richmond area district. 

lowest by far is the 9th District (SWVA - the most republican district by far). 

The NOVA districts are averaging about 28,000 or so mail ballot requests/votes/early votes.

The SWVA GOP district is at 13,000. 

[Non Swing Voter]

Fairfax County is at 42,000 so it's close to outpacing early voting requests/votes for all of 2017 (52,000).

Alexandria is at 6,000.

Arlington a little over 10,000.

Loudoun a little over 11,000.

Prince William close to 14,000.

Fairfax City close to 1,000.

Manassas over 1,000.

So NOVA is at about  85,000 or so, a bit more when you include a few other independent cities.

[Non Swing Voter]

Didn't VA institute no excuse absentee voting since 2017? Not that anyone ever checked on excuses but still an increase in absentees is to be expected.

Correct.  And even though no-one checked I think this is a big factor.  Plus they've made early voting easier.  They basically have one central early voting site in counties and then as it gets closer to Election Day I believe they will open more. 

So I'm more interested in comparing turnout by region rather than comparing it to 2017.  I am a bit surprised (but not shocked) the turnout is so low in Republican areas because I figured Youngkin would use his immense resources on a robust turnout operation.  I think he does need to get irregular voters out early because part of the Trump coalition is a lot less reliable than the Democratic coalition... especially in a state like Virginia where the Democratic electorate is going to be substantially more upscale and educated than the Republican electorate (and therefore much more likely to turnout).

[Non Swing Voter]

I'm going to be highly skeptical of all early voting reports. I still remember when skyrocketing early votes meant that Texas was going to turn blue.

The turnout is more clearly correlated with outcomes in Virginia.  For Youngkin to win he needs low turnout in Richmond and extremely high turnout in the rural.  Youngkin needs to cut deep into the margin in Fairfax which wont be clear by turnout alone, but if turnout is monstrous in NOVA then Youngkin can't win even if he does cut into the NOVA margins.  Also the case for Loudoun where Dem strength lies in somewhat marginal voters.  If Loudoun has high turnout it's a horrendous sign for Youngkin.

[Non Swing Voter]

Voted in-person early: 62,170
Voted by mail: 22,229

About 84K votes now in.

So far, it's the ancestrally R outer suburbs/small city districts (VA-01, VA-06, and VA-07) that are dominating the in-person EV.  These seats were competitive between Trump and Biden in 2020 (Biden even narrowly won VA-07) and of course Spanberger flipped VA-07 at the congressional level in 2018, but they also delivered significant Republican margins in the state-level races in 2017 and 2019.  These are likely to be Youngkin seats, but VA-07 and VA-01 should not be Youngkin landslides.

The 3 Safe Dem NOVA seats unsurprisingly dominate mail ballot requests.  Also unsurprisingly, few mail-in votes have been returned so far. 

The lowest turnout so far is in the 70% Trump coal country district (VA-09), but the second lowest turnout is in one of the VRA districts (VA-03).

IDK what to make of all this.

What to make of it is that things are proceeding as normal in Virginia, which is bad news for Trumpkin.

[Non Swing Voter]

some places are slower with sending out ballots and large counties usually have a central early voting spot, but more will typically open up over time.  so the numbers will start to really pick up in like 2 weeks.

[Non Swing Voter]

One reason VA-9 is so low is because it's quite literally much less populated than the NOVA districts, especially VA-10.

[Non Swing Voter]

Numbers seem sluggish. Alarm bells should be going off for Democrats.

In big counties like Fairfax (a) the mail is somewhat slow and (b) they don't have precincts everywhere.  I'm not driving to the central location.  It would take an hour.  Also, NOVA is turning out higher than the rest of the state.  I think we need to wait a few weeks before there's a real concern.

[Non Swing Voter]

it does seem like there's been a bit of an uptick this week.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1445889529718587395

Republicans getting marginal improvement among hispanics in places like the Rio Grande was a terrible trade off versus their precipitous decline among college educated whites.  And I expect that to be noticeable in the midterms...

[Non Swing Voter]

In two weeks you will see early voting turnout surge in NOVA because that's when big counties like Fairfax open many additional early voting sites.  It is too time consuming to drive in traffic in FFX to a central site.  There are only 3 now.  There will be 13 additional ones in 2 weeks.

[Non Swing Voter]

early in person votes: 145,784

early mail ballots: 93,516

[Non Swing Voter]

early in person votes: 145,784

early mail ballots: 93,516

Who is that good for?

I think it's too early to tell.  I want to see the numbers in a few weeks.  I don't agree with some election gurus on twitter (who shall remain nameless but have made historically inaccurate predictions) who claim that early voting numbers mean nothing.  Especially in VA where there is a huge regional divide.  Dems will vote in greater numbers early, that's a given, so I think the turnout matters because we know turnout will be a lot lower than a Presidential year so locking in votes now is a pretty big deal.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1445889529718587395

I am standing with my 7-9% win prediction for McAuliffe, this is not going to be close. The MAGAs sit out the off year non Trump elections while college educated whites vote more consistently.

Correct.  I think people here are going to be shocked at the midterm results for this reason.  The consequence to the GOP tanking in UMC suburbs is off-year elections are no longer to their advantage.

[Non Swing Voter]

The context to look at these early vote numbers is in where it's coming from mostly.  For Youngkin to win he needs to change the makeup of the electorate.  Namely, NOVA needs to be a smaller share than usual.  As long as NOVA keeps pace he cannot win.  NOVA will probably early vote at a higher rate than statewide, so this means it would be "good" for Youngkin if NOVA is just keeping pace with the rest of the state.  So far that doesn't appear to be the case.  It appears to be outperforming in terms of total votes and ballot requests.  But I expect the gap to widen when more early vote locations open in Fairfax.  So right now I'd say the numbers look like a typical VA electorate.  In a couple of weeks the answer will be more clear.

[Non Swing Voter]

9th Cong. turnout continues to seriously lag in terms of overall voted in person/voted by mail/ballot requests.  It's sitting at just 25,000.  For context.  The 8th congressional district is closing in on 49,000.  People can argue that this doesn't matter all they want because people will vote on Election Day, but the reality is this is not going to have Presidential or even midterm level turnout so they better get in gear soon because Dems are banking a lot of votes and the GOP can only win if they solidly outperform Dem base areas.

[Non Swing Voter]

9th Cong. turnout continues to seriously lag in terms of overall voted in person/voted by mail/ballot requests.  It's sitting at just 25,000.  For context.  The 8th congressional district is closing in on 49,000.  People can argue that this doesn't matter all they want because people will vote on Election Day, but the reality is this is not going to have Presidential or even midterm level turnout so they better get in gear soon because Dems are banking a lot of votes and the GOP can only win if they solidly outperform Dem base areas.

Maybe, but the VRA district is the 2nd lowest after VA-09.  Given the election day propensity in downscale R areas, that is arguably more concerning. 

The big question is VA-07 and VA-01.  Whether or not they (and to a lesser extent, VA-10) have reverted to pre-Trump voting patterns should be what decides the race. 

VA-01 and VA-07 will decide whether this resembles the Virginia of 2016 or the Virginia of 2020. They won’t decide who “wins” this race.

This.  Dems certainly don't need Trump era voting patterns in those two districts to win.  As long as NOVA turnout is typical off year level (i.e., at or above the state avg.) then Dems will win.  Virginia isn't a 50/50 state and thus Dems don't need to win the swingier parts of it.  They just need to maintain their base and base turnout. 

[Non Swing Voter]

9th Cong. turnout continues to seriously lag in terms of overall voted in person/voted by mail/ballot requests.  It's sitting at just 25,000.  For context.  The 8th congressional district is closing in on 49,000.  People can argue that this doesn't matter all they want because people will vote on Election Day, but the reality is this is not going to have Presidential or even midterm level turnout so they better get in gear soon because Dems are banking a lot of votes and the GOP can only win if they solidly outperform Dem base areas.

Maybe, but the VRA district is the 2nd lowest after VA-09.  Given the election day propensity in downscale R areas, that is arguably more concerning. 

The big question is VA-07 and VA-01.  Whether or not they (and to a lesser extent, VA-10) have reverted to pre-Trump voting patterns should be what decides the race. 

VA-01 and VA-07 will decide whether this resembles the Virginia of 2016 or the Virginia of 2020. They won’t decide who “wins” this race.

This.  Dems certainly don't need Trump era voting patterns in those two districts to win.  As long as NOVA turnout is typical off year level (i.e., at or above the state avg.) then Dems will win.  Virginia isn't a 50/50 state and thus Dems don't need to win the swingier parts of it.  They just need to maintain their base and base turnout. 

Yes, but a 2013 style (Cuccinelli+1) or even 2008 style (Obama+3) result in VA-10 would certainly put the statewide result in doubt given how the rest of the state has moved since then. 

Theoretically, but there is literally no chance of that happened.  VA-10 (which is my congressional district btw) is MUCH different than it was in 2013 or 2008.  Loudoun county is demographically totally different and the portions of Fairfax that are in the 10th are much more liberal than even 5-10 years ago. 

[Non Swing Voter]

I am 1/11130 of the returned mail-in ballots in VA-08. Good news for Terry, as long as it doesn't rain on election day.

Given how lazy many Trump voters are + the fact that Terry is banking more ballots early, I think rain on Election Day would only help Terry...

[Non Swing Voter]

In about a week these numbers will pick up more briskly when more early voting sites open up in big counties like Fairfax.

[Non Swing Voter]

^ Please don't take the bait people.  It's been explained why turnout is where it's at.  Lets not let this thread be overrun with misleading posts.

[Non Swing Voter]

Right now some over and under performing counties (votes per 1,000 registered voters):

State Avg: 53.5

Henrico: 63.4

Albemarle: 66.5

Chesterfield: 62.5

Buchanan: 19.8

Lee: 17.5

Basically, NOVA being dragged down by few early voting sites at this point... will tick up tremendously when they open all sites in Fairfax. 

SW VA has shockingly low turnout in many (but not all of the counties). 

The turnout appears highest in big suburban counties OUTSIDE of NOVA.

[Non Swing Voter]

Right now some over and under performing counties (votes per 1,000 registered voters):

State Avg: 53.5

Henrico: 63.4

Albemarle: 66.5

Chesterfield: 62.5

Buchanan: 19.8

Lee: 17.5

Basically, NOVA being dragged down by few early voting sites at this point... will tick up tremendously when they open all sites in Fairfax. 

SW VA has shockingly low turnout in many (but not all of the counties). 

The turnout appears highest in big suburban counties OUTSIDE of NOVA.

The high turnout counties all seem like the type of counties that the nerds live in.

With notable exceptions like Arlington and Fairfax.  But that's because of the number of early voting sites in NOVA right now.  So I caution everyone to note read into the numbers until the satellite sites open up next week.  Please ignore blue avatars promoting fake and/or dead wrong takes.  We saw how the CA recall went and how certain takes panned out.

[Non Swing Voter]

Also don't forget that the 3 NOVA districts currently have the most mail in ballots that haven't yet been returned by far.  And again, that's for a very specific reason... When the satellite offices open up in NOVA the people will be able to just bring those ballots to the satellite office and drop them in a box.  When I was early voting last year I saw tons of people doing this.  You are going to see a huge bump not only in early voting but returned ballots when the satellite offices open up. 

I'm not saying this is going any better than normal for Democrats but it is going to plan.  And it's laughable that blue avatars are acting like the numbers so far are bad for Dems when the most Republican congressional district's numbers are lagging so bad that they are running at about 50% of each of the three NOVA districts.

[Non Swing Voter]

When did all of the advance in-person voting sites open in Fairfax in 2020? Was it earlier in the cycle or is it based on the same time-table as this year?

They opened earlier in 2020 than they are opening this year.  According to this article they were already open at this point:

https://www.fox5dc.com/news/fairfax-county-expands-early-voting-sites

This is a huge thing that the blue avatars just gloss over.  Once the satellite sites open the early voting numbers in Fairfax and Alexandria are going to surge (my understanding is that some Alexandria residents actually vote in Fairfax).