UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Kingswood is an interesting constituency, in that the Boundary Commission are (or, rather, were) keen on the name and gave it to a serious of very different constituencies throughout successive reviews. The first Kingswood constituency (1974-83) covered much the same territory as the present one, with one very significant difference: it included Mangotsfield. It was a socially mixed marginal constituency with a slight Labour lean and went Labour narrowly in the first 1974 election (3.4% majority), a little less narrowly in the second (5.4% majority) and Conservative by a hair in 1979 (0.6% majority). The Conservative MP elected in 1979 had actually been the Liberal candidate in both 1974 elections. The second Kingswood constituency (1983-97) was radically different: half of it was actually in Bristol (drawn from various places in the East of the city, including the St George district and the Hillfields estate) and only Mangotsfield and Kingswood were included from the previous Kingswood constituency. It was a very working class constituency and 'ought' to have been a safely Labour one, but such were Labour's woes in and around Bristol in the 1980s that they only won it in 1992. The Conservative MP elected in 1979 moved (along with the rest of the first Kingswood constituency) to the new and bizarrely drawn Wansdyke constituency. The the third Kingswood constituency (1997-2010) ended up being a compromise between the first two: large tracts of newer, outer suburbs were brought back in from Wansdyke and the St George district was transferred to Bristol East, but a city element was retained (including Hillfields) and many of those outer suburban areas remained in a notably less silly version of Wansdyke. This Kingswood constituency was less overwhelmingly working class (though it still leaned that way) and was a natural Labour seat but not a natural fortress. Labour fortunes being good during this period, it voted Labour by large to comfortable margins in 1997, 2001 and 2005. The present version (2010-24) is the most naturally Conservative by far: both the Bristol elements and Mangotsfield are gone and all of the outer suburbs found in the 1974-83 seat are back. The result was reasonably tight in 2010 (5.1% majority) as the outgoing Labour MP was well-liked, but it has voted Conservative very comfortably indeed at all subsequent General Elections.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Reports that Damian Egan has been selected for Labour for Kingswood: https://twitter.com/breeallegretti/status/1744764139912724543?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1744764139912724543%7Ctwgr%5Ed0c6b0bf881d5eff5d694623fa60339e987e084b%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fvote-2012.proboards.com%2Fthread%2F18000%2Fkingswood-election%3Fpage%3D6

Currently the mayor of Lewisham, but he grew up in Kingswood. He was already due to be the candidate for the bit of the seat covering Kingswood proper, which is going into the new Bristol NE seat.

[YL]

Kingswood is an interesting constituency, in that the Boundary Commission are (or, rather, were) keen on the name and gave it to a serious of very different constituencies throughout successive reviews. The first Kingswood constituency (1974-83) covered much the same territory as the present one, with one very significant difference: it included Mangotsfield. It was a socially mixed marginal constituency with a slight Labour lean and went Labour narrowly in the first 1974 election (3.4% majority), a little less narrowly in the second (5.4% majority) and Conservative by a hair in 1979 (0.6% majority). The Conservative MP elected in 1979 had actually been the Liberal candidate in both 1974 elections. The second Kingswood constituency (1983-97) was radically different: half of it was actually in Bristol (drawn from various places in the East of the city, including the St George district and the Hillfields estate) and only Mangotsfield and Kingswood were included from the previous Kingswood constituency. It was a very working class constituency and 'ought' to have been a safely Labour one, but such were Labour's woes in and around Bristol in the 1980s that they only won it in 1992. The Conservative MP elected in 1979 moved (along with the rest of the first Kingswood constituency) to the new and bizarrely drawn Wansdyke constituency. The the third Kingswood constituency (1997-2010) ended up being a compromise between the first two: large tracts of newer, outer suburbs were brought back in from Wansdyke and the St George district was transferred to Bristol East, but a city element was retained (including Hillfields) and many of those outer suburban areas remained in a notably less silly version of Wansdyke.

Sometimes when looking at old constituency boundary maps I really wonder what they were thinking. That 1983-97 version of Wansdyke is a case in point.

Anyway, Labour have selected Damien Egan as candidate for the by-election.  He's the Mayor of Lewisham (so presumably there will be a by-election for that post if he wins) and had already been selected as candidate for the new Bristol North East, the seat that if the 1980s Commission had been drawing they'd have called Kingswood: it's not dissimilar to the 1983-97 version described above, but it includes Lockleaze and Eastville rather than St George and there are a few differences in the South Gloucestershire bit as well.

[Wiswylfen]

The wrong decision.

[JimJamUK]

The wrong decision.

May narrow the margin a little given the focus on him being a London mayor, and it also suggests Labour are not seriously targeting Mogg given they’d want an incumbent in place to challenge him in the redrawn seat.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Sometimes when looking at old constituency boundary maps I really wonder what they were thinking. That 1983-97 version of Wansdyke is a case in point.

Only old constituencies? The last three attempts at boundary reviews weren’t exactly sensible at times. Mersey Banks sums it up in two words.

[Wiswylfen]

The wrong decision.

May narrow the margin a little given the focus on him being a London mayor, and it also suggests Labour are not seriously targeting Mogg given they’d want an incumbent in place to challenge him in the redrawn seat.

Oh I can't wait for us to spend all our time campaigning in Stroud, win it by over twenty points, and narrowly fail to take his seat. But apparently if we hadn't campaigned in Blackpool South in 1997 we wouldn't have won Wirral West or something like that according to our general secretary.

[YL]

Sometimes when looking at old constituency boundary maps I really wonder what they were thinking. That 1983-97 version of Wansdyke is a case in point.

Only old constituencies? The last three attempts at boundary reviews weren’t exactly sensible at times. Mersey Banks sums it up in two words.

I never said only...

Though at least Mersey Banks and the other horrors of that attempted review never actually came to pass. The other thing is that I followed those reviews so I do actually have some idea of their thinking even if I didn't agree with it, whereas I have no idea how that version of Wansdyke, say, was arrived at. See Sheffield 1955-74 for another example: why, just why?

[YL]

The wrong decision.

May narrow the margin a little given the focus on him being a London mayor, and it also suggests Labour are not seriously targeting Mogg given they’d want an incumbent in place to challenge him in the redrawn seat.

The latter fits with my feeling that Labour are still being quite cautious about longshot targets. But there are a couple of other explanations: one is that Egan was essentially a ready to go candidate whereas they haven't selected yet in NE Somerset & Hanham; another is that if Dan Norris really is expected to be the candidate there he already has the name recognition so there's not so much point in getting him to Westminster early.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The 1955-74 Sheffield map makes a degree of sense when you consider that the physical shape of the city was just very different in 1955 (it still followed the 19th century pattern of growth, with housing and industry hugging the valleys) though there are still a few strange details, which presumably relate to how the wards were drawn. Doesn't half look bizarre when superimposed on the physical shape of the city c. 2024 though.

[YL]

The 1955-74 Sheffield map makes a degree of sense when you consider that the physical shape of the city was just very different in 1955 (it still followed the 19th century pattern of growth, with housing and industry hugging the valleys) though there are still a few strange details, which presumably relate to how the wards were drawn. Doesn't half look bizarre when superimposed on the physical shape of the city c. 2024 though.

I've considered the different pattern of development before and come to the conclusion that it makes it a bit less weird, but doesn't really absolve it of weirdness (especially regarding Burngreave). My suspicion is that it's a combination of oddities in the ward boundaries and the tendency boundary commissions have, when they need to cut a seat, to select one to be carved up (the 1950-55 Neepsend in this case) and attach bits of it to the neighbouring seats in a way that doesn't necessarily make much sense. The 1950-55 map has some oddities, but it's distinctly less weird than the 1955-74 one, and the 1918-50 one is really quite good once you take account of the different city boundaries and population distribution.

Arguably different patterns of development might help to explain Wansdyke a little too, e.g. Emersons Green didn't exist. But again I'm not convinced that it really made sense even taking that into account.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I've considered the different pattern of development before and come to the conclusion that it makes it a bit less weird, but doesn't really absolve it of weirdness (especially regarding Burngreave). My suspicion is that it's a combination of oddities in the ward boundaries and the tendency boundary commissions have, when they need to cut a seat, to select one to be carved up (the 1950-55 Neepsend in this case) and attach bits of it to the neighbouring seats in a way that doesn't necessarily make much sense. The 1950-55 map has some oddities, but it's distinctly less weird than the 1955-74 one, and the 1918-50 one is really quite good once you take account of the different city boundaries and population distribution.

Yes, I think that's fair. Quite a few curious details - and I think you're right on the reasonings for these - but nothing quite as bizarre as Bristol South East (bringing things nicely back on topic as that constituency included Kingswood UD!) from the same period. An underrated weird constituency map, btw, is Cardiff 1974-83.

Arguably different patterns of development might help to explain Wansdyke a little too, e.g. Emersons Green didn't exist. But again I'm not convinced that it really made sense even taking that into account.

I think that one is just another 1983 Review Special, like Mid Staffs or Liverpool Mossley Hill.

[YL]

The writs have been moved today for both Wellingborough and Kingswood. Polling day should be Thursday 15 February.

[CumbrianLefty]

Deadline for nominations is the coming Friday, quite a tight timetable.

[YL]

Deadline for nominations is the coming Friday, quite a tight timetable.

Only in Kingswood; for Wellingborough it's Tuesday the week after.

[CumbrianLefty]

How come the two are different if they are polling on the same day?

[YL]

How come the two are different if they are polling on the same day?

Because the relevant councils made different choices about the timetable. There is some flexibility in the timetable for by-elections and the close of nominations can be 17 (as in Wellingborough), 18, or 19 (as in Kingswood) working days before polling day.

North Northamptonshire's Wellingborough page, showing close of nominations on the 23rd
South Gloucestershire's Kingswood page. showing close of nominations on the 19th

[YL]

The Tories have selected their group leader on South Gloucestershire Council, Sam Bromiley, as their candidate for Kingswood. Of the three successor seats, they had already selected a different candidate for Bristol North East (which is pretty hopeless for them anyway) and have sitting MPs likely to contest NE Somerset & Hanham and Filton & Sadly Broke so I don't know what they do if he wins...

[EastAnglianLefty]

Allegedly only twelve votes were cast in the selection contest.

[YL]

Reform UK have U turned on not standing a candidate in Kingswood and will now be standing the former Brexit Party MEP and Southampton FC chairman Rupert Lowe.

I’m still egging on Conservatopia to stand, though.

[CumbrianLefty]

I do wonder if this Reform "u-turn" is at least partly caused by their original decision not to run being spun by some as a possible 2019-style deal with the Tories at the GE still being on.

And this is intended to put a damper on that?

[Conservatopia]

Reform UK have U turned on not standing a candidate in Kingswood and will now be standing the former Brexit Party MEP and Southampton FC chairman Rupert Lowe.

I’m still egging on Conservatopia to stand, though.

Not happening unfortunately, due to various circumstances. Kind of annoying because it's a once in a lifetime open local seat, but there's always all sorts of joke candidates in local elections though so it would be extreme hubris to assume I'd get anywhere. My only hope of saving a deposit would be to run as a single issue anti-net zero candidate and do some crazy attention grabbing stunt, but doing so would draw unwelcome attention from Avon & Somerset Constabulary who I try stay on the right side of, despite mixed past interactions.

The local Tory party want me to help on the campaign. Not sure what the adequate response is though.

[CumbrianLefty]

If a GE doesn't intervene first, there will also now be a byelection in Rochdale.

[YL]

Just six candidates for Kingswood:

Sam Bromiley (Con)
Andrew Brown (Lib Dem)
Damien Egan (Lab)
Lorraine Francis (Green)
Rupert Lowe (Reform UK)
Nicholas Wood (UKIP)

[Torrain]

Labour are selecting a candidate for Rochdale this week, shortlisting by Wednesday and holding the final selection at the weekend..

Pinch of salt, but rumours spreading today that leadership want the i’s chief political correspondent Paul Waugh (locally raised, and helped expose Cyril Smith’s abuse) as their candidate.