UK By-elections thread, 2021-
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #2650 on: October 25, 2023, 08:01:25 PM »
« edited: October 25, 2023, 08:05:05 PM by Tintrlvr »

Between here and the likely Labour romp in Blackpool, are the Lib Dems really going to sit out a set of by-elections?

They'll just put up paper candidates, and provide the bare-minimum funding. Enough to print some leaflets, and rent one minivan so they can bus in enough activists for a wee photo-op near the end of the camapign.

Tbh - they'll probably spend at least as much time in Solihull (in the off-chance that one actually gets triggered there) as they will in either/both of these seats.

Solihull would definitely be an interesting by-election because the Lib Dems really are much weaker locally now than when they were winning the seat. (I think they actually have no councillors within the boundaries of the parliamentary seat; the Lib Dem seats on Solihull council are all in Meriden.) I wonder if the Greens would seriously contest.
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icc
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« Reply #2651 on: October 26, 2023, 04:22:58 AM »
« Edited: October 26, 2023, 04:44:36 AM by icc »

Between here and the likely Labour romp in Blackpool, are the Lib Dems really going to sit out a set of by-elections?

They'll just put up paper candidates, and provide the bare-minimum funding. Enough to print some leaflets, and rent one minivan so they can bus in enough activists for a wee photo-op near the end of the camapign.

Tbh - they'll probably spend at least as much time in Solihull (in the off-chance that one actually gets triggered there) as they will in either/both of these seats.

Solihull would definitely be an interesting by-election because the Lib Dems really are much weaker locally now than when they were winning the seat. (I think they actually have no councillors within the boundaries of the parliamentary seat; the Lib Dem seats on Solihull council are all in Meriden.) I wonder if the Greens would seriously contest.

The Lib Dem seats on Solihull council are all in the Solihull parliamentary constituency. They don't have any councillors in Meriden.
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Torrain
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« Reply #2652 on: October 26, 2023, 04:39:07 AM »

Solihull would definitely be an interesting by-election because the Lib Dems really are much weaker locally now than when they were winning the seat. (I think they actually have no councillors within the boundaries of the parliamentary seat; the Lib Dem seats on Solihull council are all in Meriden.) I wonder if the Greens would seriously contest.

Thing is, the Greens *can’t* make a serious run at it - they just don’t have a by-election machine.

The Lib Dems may be in third-place right now in Solihull. But they’d have to overturn a smaller majority than in either Tiverton & Honiton, or North Shropshire. And - notably, they came from third place in both seats (with a vote share of under 20%) and won with a swing of at least 30%.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #2653 on: October 26, 2023, 05:31:29 AM »

The Conservatives will do all they can to avoid a Solihull by-election, as with Lorely Burt safely out of the way in the Lords the constituency should be safe enough even in a General Election meltdown, but would nonetheless be at serious risk in a by-election.
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #2654 on: October 26, 2023, 05:50:11 AM »

I doubt Labour have been caught totally unaware by the Wellingborough by-election - there is usually some tacit knowledge of what is being investigated. My suspicion is that this is part of the reason it hasn't selected yet - the demands of being a by-election candidate are more intense than those a GE candidate faces, and party HQ may want to have more control over the selection than they'd ordinarily feel the need for in a stretch target.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #2655 on: October 26, 2023, 11:07:01 AM »

No one knows the constituency or what might happen next, but it should probably be noted here that another Conservative MP (presently unnamed) has been arrested for rape.
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JimJamUK
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« Reply #2656 on: October 26, 2023, 12:05:17 PM »
« Edited: October 26, 2023, 12:10:02 PM by JimJamUK »

It strikes me as the sort of constituency where the Lib Dem’s would (successfully) target instead of Labour. Ironically the Greens are clearly 2nd on council results but I seriously doubt they could challenge across the whole constituency.
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JimJamUK
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« Reply #2657 on: October 26, 2023, 12:07:22 PM »

Solihull would definitely be an interesting by-election because the Lib Dems really are much weaker locally now than when they were winning the seat. (I think they actually have no councillors within the boundaries of the parliamentary seat; the Lib Dem seats on Solihull council are all in Meriden.) I wonder if the Greens would seriously contest.
The Greens kinda fell apart in Solihull the past few years. Some of their councillors went independent, they’ve lost a couple of seats to the Tories (in the Meriden constituency), and they’ve failed to make further gains which looked likely pre-2021.
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Torrain
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« Reply #2658 on: October 26, 2023, 12:13:13 PM »

No one knows the constituency or what might happen next, but it should probably be noted here that another Conservative MP (presently unnamed) has been arrested for rape.

Just for the purposes of this thread - Crispin Blunt (MP for Reigate) has now confirmed that this was him.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #2659 on: October 26, 2023, 12:41:59 PM »

No one knows the constituency or what might happen next, but it should probably be noted here that another Conservative MP (presently unnamed) has been arrested for rape.

Just for the purposes of this thread - Crispin Blunt (MP for Reigate) has now confirmed that this was him.

Well the Lib-Dems should be the obvious challenger, but this is the part of Surrey where they have done the worst both historically and recently locally.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #2660 on: October 26, 2023, 12:53:31 PM »

Blunt will only resign if he has a personality transplant or is convicted. And criminal proceedings are presently taking forever due to 'this government messing up the courts system'.
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Torrain
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« Reply #2661 on: October 26, 2023, 12:54:42 PM »

Well the Lib-Dems should be the obvious challenger, but this is the part of Surrey where they have done the worst both historically and recently locally.

I think we'd end up in another Mid Beds-style argument between Labour and the Lib Dems over who's best placed to challenge for the seat, based on last time:
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YL
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« Reply #2662 on: October 26, 2023, 12:58:06 PM »

Blunt will only resign if he has a personality transplant or is convicted. And criminal proceedings are presently taking forever due to 'this government messing up the courts system'.

Yes, a by-election arising from this seems rather unlikely.

(And I will again add that even Tory MPs are innocent until proven guilty.)
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Torrain
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« Reply #2663 on: October 26, 2023, 01:05:45 PM »

North Northamptonshire Council have published the dates for the Peter Bone recall petition, per the BBC. Should run Nov 8th-Dec 19th, with results published the following day.

Sounds like a February by-election, if it's approved. Commons goes into recess on the 19th of Dec, so writ couldn't be moved until near the middle of January.
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Coldstream
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« Reply #2664 on: October 27, 2023, 05:33:40 AM »

I’d heavily bet against a Reigate by-election. I doubt there will be time for criminal proceedings to complete before a GE, and I seriously doubt Blunt would resign.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #2665 on: October 27, 2023, 08:35:15 AM »

If by some chance it did happen though, the LibDems came just a handful of votes behind Labour last time (which wasn't the case in Mid Beds) and would surely fancy their chances.

Though the thought of Labour getting their first ever MP unequivocally in Surrey would be something as well - they did win Spelthorne in 1945 but it then included large areas now in Greater London.

(and was, of course, part of Middlesex then anyway)
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DL
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« Reply #2666 on: October 27, 2023, 09:35:03 AM »

How come there is a Sussex, an Essex, a Wessex and a Middlesex - but no "Nossex"?
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Cassius
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« Reply #2667 on: October 27, 2023, 09:56:09 AM »

How come there is a Sussex, an Essex, a Wessex and a Middlesex - but no "Nossex"?

Given that Hertfordshire (directly to the north of what was Middlesex) contains such thrilling locales as Watford, Stevenage and Tring, Nossex would indeed be a very apposite thing to call it.
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YL
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« Reply #2668 on: October 27, 2023, 12:38:47 PM »

North Northamptonshire Council have published the dates for the Peter Bone recall petition, per the BBC. Should run Nov 8th-Dec 19th, with results published the following day.

Sounds like a February by-election, if it's approved. Commons goes into recess on the 19th of Dec, so writ couldn't be moved until near the middle of January.

Here's North Northants Council's page announcing the recall, confirming those dates.

There are nine signing centres, three each in Wellingborough town and Rushden and one each in Great Doddington, Finedon and Irchester.  It does feel like this process must be a bit of an annoyance to a council landed with having to run it.
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Statilius the Epicurean
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« Reply #2669 on: October 27, 2023, 03:31:34 PM »

How come there is a Sussex, an Essex, a Wessex and a Middlesex - but no "Nossex"?

As far as we can tell the Saxons didn't settle far inland north of the Thames, at least not initially. It's "East Anglia" to the north for a reason: the area was settled by the Angles, not the Saxons.
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Conservatopia
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« Reply #2670 on: October 28, 2023, 12:54:01 AM »

How come there is a Sussex, an Essex, a Wessex and a Middlesex - but no "Nossex"?

I always presumed Nossex is Scotland, where it's too cold to take off your clothes.
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Torrain
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« Reply #2671 on: October 28, 2023, 01:52:06 PM »


Setting aside my feelings about them embracing him after the revelations of the past week...

If relations are still this good between Bone and local party members, there's an underpriced outcome here, where he tries to get reselected by Wellingborough Conservative Association.

CCHQ would presumably intervene, given what happened last time a recalled Conservative MP tried that.
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Torrain
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« Reply #2672 on: November 26, 2023, 05:50:25 AM »

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YL
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« Reply #2673 on: November 26, 2023, 06:46:01 AM »

If this by-election happens then it'll be interesting to see who the Tory candidate is and what Bone does.

(I think the recall will almost certainly pass, but I don't think it's impossible that the Government decides not to hold a by-election on the grounds that the General Election is imminent.  They could definitely get away with that if they're going for June or earlier for the GE; it's much more debatable if they're going for later than that.)
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #2674 on: November 26, 2023, 10:34:49 AM »

There's no way they can hold it off if they are going for a GE later than May, surely.

Its even possible that Sunak may want it (and possibly Blackpool South) to go ahead in Feb/March so that he can see whether going in the middle of the year isn't totally hopeless after all.
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