GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 05, 2024, 03:41:03 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires		 « previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 99 100 101 102 103 [104] 105 106 107 108 109 ... 147
Author Topic: GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires  (Read 147428 times)
Horus
Sheliak5
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,015
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2575 on: December 06, 2022, 07:51:18 PM »
Quote from: Darthpi is pleasantly surprised on December 06, 2022, 07:50:03 PM
Johnson County 89% in. Walker leads there 69-31. Was Walker 74-26 in November. Warnock actually getting more raw votes than in November.

Walker's home county lol. I wonder if the former high school football coach endorsing Warnock (post runoff I think) made a difference.
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,275
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2576 on: December 06, 2022, 07:51:59 PM »
Quote from: Reverse-tradamus on December 06, 2022, 07:51:08 PM
Why do you only report the R favorable trends, is this a form of cope?

You’re not particularly bright if you saw those two "reports" and considered them "R favorable." Look at the margins.

I’m reporting the counties which are >95% in. Was hard to tell, I know.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 90,078
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2577 on: December 06, 2022, 07:52:13 PM »
Goodbye Walker
Logged
GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB
weatherboy1102
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,047
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.61, S: -7.83

P
WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2578 on: December 06, 2022, 07:52:40 PM »
DeKalb finally reports and... it's only 5% of the county vote. 88-12.
Logged
Alben Barkley
KYWildman
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,288
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.97, S: -5.74

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2579 on: December 06, 2022, 07:52:45 PM »
Yeah, all signs point to a narrow Warnock win that comes on the strength of the Atlanta metro.

Still, this is closer than I wanted it to be so I might be in for a longer night than I expected... A few more excuses to drink!

And my early call for Warnock still wasn't as premature as the major networks' early call for Bill Clinton in Georgia 1992 btw!
Logged
Ferguson97
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,363
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2580 on: December 06, 2022, 07:52:50 PM »
Logged
Nyvin
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,700
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2581 on: December 06, 2022, 07:53:20 PM »
I find it hilarious that right wing twitter is harping about GA runoffs now

Don't they realize that without the runoff Warnock would already be senator-elect now?
Logged
Baki
Rookie
**
Posts: 233
Croatia


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2582 on: December 06, 2022, 07:53:50 PM »
Quote from: Reverse-tradamus on December 06, 2022, 07:51:08 PM
Quote from: MT Treasurer on December 06, 2022, 07:50:19 PM
Quote from: MT Treasurer on December 06, 2022, 07:46:54 PM
Towns County >95% in (this one is in North GA)

Walker 80%
Warnock 20%

~6,400 votes cast so far.

January 2021:

Perdue 81%
Ossoff 19%

~7,200 votes cast back then.

Rabun County >95% in (this one is also in North GA)

Walker 77%
Warnock 23%

~7,400 votes cast so far.

January 2021:

Perdue 79%
Ossoff 21%

~8,400 votes cast back then.
Why do you only report the R favorable trends, is this a form of cope?


He's reporting counties that have counted all the votes. It so happens that early in the night those are the ones with a small number of votes, which are almost exlcusively Republican.

And the trends are not R friendly - most counties he reported have Walker underperforming Perdue and with a lower turnout.
Logged
pantsaregood
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 457
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2583 on: December 06, 2022, 07:54:01 PM »
#Walk(er)Away
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
Moderator
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 33,146


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2584 on: December 06, 2022, 07:54:15 PM »

Logged
Alben Barkley
KYWildman
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,288
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.97, S: -5.74

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2585 on: December 06, 2022, 07:54:16 PM »
Quote from: Ferguson97 on December 06, 2022, 07:52:50 PM


I see almost a wash in the rural counties and a Warnock boost in the urban counties.

That should be more than enough, as it was Warnock +1 in November.
Logged
LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2586 on: December 06, 2022, 07:54:37 PM »
Needle went from Warnock +1 to Warnock +0.6...
Logged
It’s so Joever
Forumlurker161
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,057


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2587 on: December 06, 2022, 07:55:00 PM »
Quote from: Alben Barkley on December 06, 2022, 07:54:16 PM
Quote from: Ferguson97 on December 06, 2022, 07:52:50 PM


I see almost a wash in the rural counties and a Warnock boost in the urban counties.

That should be more than enough, as it was Warnock +1 in November.
Even a complete wash in margin still is a Warnock victory, the urban boost would just be a cherry on top.
Logged
Alben Barkley
KYWildman
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,288
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.97, S: -5.74

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2588 on: December 06, 2022, 07:55:08 PM »
Quote from: Nyvin on December 06, 2022, 07:53:20 PM
I find it hilarious that right wing twitter is harping about GA runoffs now

Don't they realize that without the runoff Warnock would already be senator-elect now?

They don't realize much of anything.
Logged
GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB
weatherboy1102
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,047
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.61, S: -7.83

P
WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2589 on: December 06, 2022, 07:56:21 PM »
Warnock ahead narrowly in Spalding w/45% in.
Logged
President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
Atlas Politician
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 41,982
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2590 on: December 06, 2022, 07:56:30 PM »
Quote from: Baki on December 06, 2022, 07:53:50 PM
Quote from: Reverse-tradamus on December 06, 2022, 07:51:08 PM
Quote from: MT Treasurer on December 06, 2022, 07:50:19 PM
Quote from: MT Treasurer on December 06, 2022, 07:46:54 PM
Towns County >95% in (this one is in North GA)

Walker 80%
Warnock 20%

~6,400 votes cast so far.

January 2021:

Perdue 81%
Ossoff 19%

~7,200 votes cast back then.

Rabun County >95% in (this one is also in North GA)

Walker 77%
Warnock 23%

~7,400 votes cast so far.

January 2021:

Perdue 79%
Ossoff 21%

~8,400 votes cast back then.
Why do you only report the R favorable trends, is this a form of cope?


He's reporting counties that have counted all the votes. It so happens that early in the night those are the ones with a small number of votes, which are almost exlcusively Republican.

And the trends are not R friendly - most counties he reported have Walker underperforming Perdue and with a lower turnout.
Turnout being down is particularly bad for Walker. He needs to increase his net vote gains from said counties...and he's failing at that. If he goes from winning a county 60-40 with 10k votes cast to winning a county 65-35 with only 5k votes, that a big net loss for him.
Logged
Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,707
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.13, S: -6.87

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2591 on: December 06, 2022, 07:57:07 PM »
Chatahoochie County, 93% in. Walker leads 52-48 tonight. Was Walker 53-45 in November.
Logged
Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,061


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2592 on: December 06, 2022, 07:57:29 PM »
Logged
Skill and Chance
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,815
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2593 on: December 06, 2022, 07:58:14 PM »
This isn't consistent with a Warnock +4 result at all so far.
Logged
Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,336
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2594 on: December 06, 2022, 07:58:21 PM »
Quote from: Ferguson97 on December 06, 2022, 07:52:50 PM


Don't worry I expect MTTreasurer will be reporting that result soon.
Logged
Anti-Trump Truth Socialite JD Vance Enjoying Juror
NYDem
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,259
United States Minor Outlying Islands


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2595 on: December 06, 2022, 07:58:28 PM »
Quote from: Gracile on December 06, 2022, 07:57:29 PM


RIP 80-20 Cobb County, December 6 2022 - December 6 2022. Gone but not forgotten.
Logged
ProgressiveModerate
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,004


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2596 on: December 06, 2022, 07:58:50 PM »
Quote from: Reverse-tradamus on December 06, 2022, 07:57:56 PM
The real Warnock nut is Seminole. He overperformed by 8.

The vote total is too low, it’s almost certainly an errro
Logged
Atlas Force
mlee117379
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,345
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2597 on: December 06, 2022, 07:58:56 PM »
Quote from: Darthpi is pleasantly surprised on December 06, 2022, 07:57:07 PM
Chatahoochie County, 93% in. Walker leads 52-48 tonight. Was Walker 53-45 in November.

Trump+13 county btw
Logged
Gass3268
Moderator
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,574
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2598 on: December 06, 2022, 07:59:01 PM »
Logged
Interlocutor is just not there yet
Interlocutor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,204


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -5.04

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2599 on: December 06, 2022, 07:59:01 PM »
Apparently, a lot of folks in this thread can't get through tonight without their needle
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 99 100 101 102 103 [104] 105 106 107 108 109 ... 147  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.065 seconds with 10 queries.