GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/RiegerReport/status/1585728117200543748?
Hmm.

Yet another "privately in public" prognosis from Schumer that we always seem to get.

(*whispers* He's right though)

Right on all of it, or just Georgia?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/RiegerReport/status/1585728117200543748?
Hmm.

Yet another "privately in public" prognosis from Schumer that we always seem to get.

(*whispers* He's right though)

Right on all of it, or just Georgia?

Parts of it could have been "privately in public" and parts of it could have been sincere. We don't know.

[It’s so Joever]

I’m not convinced Fetterman is in a better position than Warnock, given everything and the fact that early voting trends are showing massive underperformance in D areas relative to 2020 (if you know where to look) but that Dems are holding their own in Georgia.

[Pollster]

https://twitter.com/RiegerReport/status/1585728117200543748?
Hmm.

Yet another "privately in public" prognosis from Schumer that we always seem to get.

(*whispers* He's right though)

Right on all of it, or just Georgia?

Presumably all of it, but I was referring to Georgia.

[Hammy]

I’m not convinced Fetterman is in a better position than Warnock, given everything and the fact that early voting trends are showing massive underperformance in D areas relative to 2020 (if you know where to look) but that Dems are holding their own in Georgia.

Georgia require a runoff though, Dems can squeak out a victory in PA and that's it, but depending on where the votes came from and how the runoff turnout is, that wont be enough in GA.

That alone makes Georgia more difficult by default

[It’s so Joever]

I’m not convinced Fetterman is in a better position than Warnock, given everything and the fact that early voting trends are showing massive underperformance in D areas relative to 2020 (if you know where to look) but that Dems are holding their own in Georgia.

Georgia require a runoff though, Dems can squeak out a victory in PA and that's it, but depending on where the votes came from and how the runoff turnout is, that wont be enough in GA.

That alone makes Georgia more difficult by default

Ds would do better in a runoff imo.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/RiegerReport/status/1585728117200543748?

Hmm.

The first state is Arizona.  There's a point where you can make out one of the women saying "Kelly's a nice man" right before Schumer comments about being in danger in that race.  There's also a bit toward the end when they're talking about Georgia where Schumer says they (Warnock) have a small lead, but it's not a Democratic state.

[cg41386]

https://twitter.com/RiegerReport/status/1585728117200543748?
Hmm.

Yet another "privately in public" prognosis from Schumer that we always seem to get.

(*whispers* He's right though)

https://twitter.com/RiegerReport/status/1585728117200543748?
Hmm.

Yet another "privately in public" prognosis from Schumer that we always seem to get.

(*whispers* He's right though)

Right on all of it, or just Georgia?

Presumably all of it, but I was referring to Georgia.

Based on what, exactly? It's probably going to a runoff anyway.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/RiegerReport/status/1585728117200543748?
Hmm.

Yet another "privately in public" prognosis from Schumer that we always seem to get.

(*whispers* He's right though)

https://twitter.com/RiegerReport/status/1585728117200543748?
Hmm.

Yet another "privately in public" prognosis from Schumer that we always seem to get.

(*whispers* He's right though)

Right on all of it, or just Georgia?

Presumably all of it, but I was referring to Georgia.

Based on what, exactly? It's probably going to a runoff anyway.

Presumably insider knowledge.

That said Pollster would you say a runoff or a outright Warnock win is more likely than an outright Walker win?

[soundchaser]

Pollster is a literal pollster.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/RiegerReport/status/1585728117200543748?
Hmm.

Yet another "privately in public" prognosis from Schumer that we always seem to get.

(*whispers* He's right though)

https://twitter.com/RiegerReport/status/1585728117200543748?
Hmm.

Yet another "privately in public" prognosis from Schumer that we always seem to get.

(*whispers* He's right though)

Right on all of it, or just Georgia?

Presumably all of it, but I was referring to Georgia.

Based on what, exactly? It's probably going to a runoff anyway.

Presumably insider knowledge.

That said Politician would you say a runoff or a outright Warnock win is more likely than an outright Walker win?

He's a pollster, not a politician.  Don't insult him.

[Pollster]

I do not think there's a path to a Warnock 50% win on election night. Walker has been on a steady up and up in our trackers but is routinely falling short of 50% as well. The trendline looks good for him and if it continues he could do it, but I do believe a runoff is the likely outcome.

I expect Warnock to shift to base turnout mode rather than continuing the case against Walker in these final weeks. You can already see that in the Thanksgiving ad where he explicitly warns about the possibility of a runoff with no mention of Walker.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

I do not think there's a path to a Warnock 50% win on election night. Walker has been on a steady up and up in our trackers but is routinely falling short of 50% as well. The trendline looks good for him and if it continues he could do it, but I do believe a runoff is the likely outcome.

I expect Warnock to shift to base turnout mode rather than continuing the case against Walker in these final weeks. You can already see that in the Thanksgiving ad where he explicitly warns about the possibility of a runoff with no mention of Walker.

Who do you think will win the most on election night?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I do not think there's a path to a Warnock 50% win on election night. Walker has been on a steady up and up in our trackers but is routinely falling short of 50% as well. The trendline looks good for him and if it continues he could do it, but I do believe a runoff is the likely outcome.

I expect Warnock to shift to base turnout mode rather than continuing the case against Walker in these final weeks. You can already see that in the Thanksgiving ad where he explicitly warns about the possibility of a runoff with no mention of Walker.

Scary stuff

[Devils30]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/10/26/herschel-walker-polls-abortion-daily-beast/

What great journalism….

According to the RealClearPolitics polling average, Walker has regained all of the ground he lost mid-scandal, bringing the race with Democratic Sen. Raphael G. Warnock to a tie. He is now facing a new report from a second accuser that he pressured her into an abortion, too. But the effects of the first scandal have already worn off.

Could the Rasmussen and Trafalgar polls maybe have helped a bit? Lol

[wbrocks67]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/10/26/herschel-walker-polls-abortion-daily-beast/

What great journalism….

According to the RealClearPolitics polling average, Walker has regained all of the ground he lost mid-scandal, bringing the race with Democratic Sen. Raphael G. Warnock to a tie. He is now facing a new report from a second accuser that he pressured her into an abortion, too. But the effects of the first scandal have already worn off.

Could the Rasmussen and Trafalgar polls maybe have helped a bit? Lol

It's maddening that outlets are running off purely GOP pollsters. Literally the only ones we've gotten in the last week are all GOP commissioned or GOP-adjacent.

[wbrocks67]

I’m not convinced Fetterman is in a better position than Warnock, given everything and the fact that early voting trends are showing massive underperformance in D areas relative to 2020 (if you know where to look) but that Dems are holding their own in Georgia.

.... there is absolutely no reason to compare D mail performance right now to 2020 (in PA). None at all. There were 3M mail requests in 2020. 1.3M right now. Completely different election.

[It’s so Joever]

I’m not convinced Fetterman is in a better position than Warnock, given everything and the fact that early voting trends are showing massive underperformance in D areas relative to 2020 (if you know where to look) but that Dems are holding their own in Georgia.

.... there is absolutely no reason to compare D mail performance right now to 2020. None at all. There were 3M mail requests in 2020. 1.3M right now. Completely different election.

I see, so you believe that there is more to be found is subset cross tabs of historically inaccurate polls with cross tabs being extremely volatile to error due to their smaller size (only further exaggerating said poll errors) than actual voting data?

[wbrocks67]

I do not think there's a path to a Warnock 50% win on election night. Walker has been on a steady up and up in our trackers but is routinely falling short of 50% as well. The trendline looks good for him and if it continues he could do it, but I do believe a runoff is the likely outcome.

I expect Warnock to shift to base turnout mode rather than continuing the case against Walker in these final weeks. You can already see that in the Thanksgiving ad where he explicitly warns about the possibility of a runoff with no mention of Walker.

Can you elaborate a bit more (if possible)? Is Walker outright leading now on the tracker, or is it just him recovering from being down before?

I guess nothing should shock us these days but it would be absolutely shocking to me if Walker was in a better position after the last month.

[wbrocks67]

I’m not convinced Fetterman is in a better position than Warnock, given everything and the fact that early voting trends are showing massive underperformance in D areas relative to 2020 (if you know where to look) but that Dems are holding their own in Georgia.

.... there is absolutely no reason to compare D mail performance right now to 2020. None at all. There were 3M mail requests in 2020. 1.3M right now. Completely different election.

I see, so you believe that there is more to be found is subset cross tabs of historically inaccurate polls with cross tabs being extremely volatile to error due to their smaller size (only further exaggerating said poll errors) than actual voting data?

The actual voting data is what it is in PA this year. There is - once again - no historical comparison you can make. 2018 you cannot compare because we did not have easy access mail-in voting. In 2020, again, there were over *double* the mail-in requests across the state as there is now. So how on earth do you think there is a way to properly compare?

[jamestroll]

I do not think there's a path to a Warnock 50% win on election night. Walker has been on a steady up and up in our trackers but is routinely falling short of 50% as well. The trendline looks good for him and if it continues he could do it, but I do believe a runoff is the likely outcome.

I expect Warnock to shift to base turnout mode rather than continuing the case against Walker in these final weeks. You can already see that in the Thanksgiving ad where he explicitly warns about the possibility of a runoff with no mention of Walker.

When I use the generic chart, with no birth time, for Walker there is a T square in Walker's chart.

Walker's progressed sun is opposed by Neptune and squared by progressed Saturn. When your sun is negatively impacted by neptune and saturn .. it is generally very bad.

But let me look deeper into run off day for Georgia. That may be the more accurate day to use?

Problem is no one in the Walker or Warnock social media responded to me in regards to birthtimes.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

I do not think there's a path to a Warnock 50% win on election night. Walker has been on a steady up and up in our trackers but is routinely falling short of 50% as well. The trendline looks good for him and if it continues he could do it, but I do believe a runoff is the likely outcome.

I expect Warnock to shift to base turnout mode rather than continuing the case against Walker in these final weeks. You can already see that in the Thanksgiving ad where he explicitly warns about the possibility of a runoff with no mention of Walker.

When I use the generic chart, with no birth time, for Walker there is a T square in Walker's chart.

Walker's progressed sun is opposed by Neptune and squared by progressed Saturn. When your sun is negatively impacted by neptune and saturn .. it is generally very bad.

But let me look deeper into run off day for Georgia. That may be the more accurate day to use?

Problem is no one in the Walker or Warnock social media responded to me in regards to birthtimes.

That's very troubling. Candidates' tax returns, medical reports, and above all, birthtimes, should be freely available.

[Devils30]

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7107

Buy now on Warnock if you don’t believe Trafalgar Rasmussen and the other junk!

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7107

Buy now on Warnock if you don’t believe Trafalgar Rasmussen and the other junk!

That's way too low on Warnock if for no other reason than the likelihood of a runoff.  I would say the same thing if the percentages were reversed; it would be too low for Walker in that case.

[Devils30]

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7107

Buy now on Warnock if you don’t believe Trafalgar Rasmussen and the other junk!

That's way too low on Warnock if for no other reason than the likelihood of a runoff.  I would say the same thing if the percentages were reversed; it would be too low for Walker in that case.

To a lot of people, GA is a "red state" and GOP will get their rightful win. PredictIt being $850 max per market per person leads to a lot of low info bettors and is easily to manipulate.