GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Politico's reporting that Loeffler (& obviously Collins) are also considering challenges against Warnock:

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/02/15/perdue-2022-warnock-georgia-469075

Loeffler is also considering running again in a rematch against Warnock, as is former Rep. Doug Collins (R-Ga.), who finished third in the special election in November.

A Perdue vs. Loeffler vs. Collins vs. MTG primary would be completely f**king insane. How do y'all think it would turn out?

MTG takes one runoff slot with Collins getting >10% and being essentially a non-factor for most of the campaign.  Tossup between Perdue and Loeffler for the remaining slot although my gut says Loeffler narrowly edges out Perdue.  Either way, MTG probably wins the runoff by about 6-8%.  I doubt Collins runs unless MTG sits it out.  Collins has a clear shot at primarying Kemp and will benefit from MTG’s base turning out for her.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Carter must be pissed; he really wanted to run for this seat.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1431262407817576453

https://nypost.com/2020/12/23/raphael-warnocks-ex-claims-he-ran-over-her-foot-during-a-dispute/

​The ex-wife of Georgia Senate candidate Rev. Raphael Warnock told police he deliberately ran over her foot during a March 2020 domestic dispute, and that her ex-husband is a “great actor,” according to a report.

This was pretty thoroughly debunked, but thanks for playing

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Well this is interesting. I thought Warnock would narrowly survive based on the weakness of Walker as a candidate but this could be damaging.

Warnock used campaign funds to fight personal lawsuit

It won’t matter.  For better or worse, these sorts of scandals never really resonate with voters.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

In a place as polarized as Georgia, how many votes could something like this actually move?

Ask Sean Parnell

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

In a place as polarized as Georgia, how many votes could something like this actually move?

Ask Sean Parnell

Alaska is much more elastic than Georgia is.

Sean Parnell (R-PA)

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

In fairness to Walker, I do wonder if his speech issues might be partially due to some sort of brain damage from his football career.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I would support waiving the filibuster to reinstate Roe.

I suppose I'm one of these "swing voters" but for me, it's less about wanting to be undecided / putting off a decision and more about conflicting emotions I'm feeling this cycle. On the one hand, I don't want the Democrats in charge of the budget and on the other hand I don't want Republicans in charge of my wife's body. Scandals that make me question if a candidate is fundamentally fit for office absolutely can sway my vote.

A bunch of Biden/Warnock/Ossoff voters are about to vote for Kemp next month. These revelations absolutely have an effect on these same swing voters.

Honestly there are some swing voters who want to look "undecided".

They truly Can by voting both for Kemp and Warnock and I think this is what they will do

If that is the case I would think you'd vote against Kemp and for Walker. Abortion will be controlled by the states. No national abortion ban is taking place in the senate. The votes aren't there for it and Biden would never sign it even if there were 60+ votes.

This is an incredibly short-sighted view that ignores the fact that Senators serve six-year terms. A second Trump presidency paired with a Republican majority in the House and Senate would very likely result in some sort of national abortion ban and the only real question is whether it would be six weeks, ten weeks, or fifteen weeks.

You see the GOP having 60+ senate seats along with a house majority and president? I sure as hell do not. They would need at least 62 seats. Collins and Murkowski would not vote for it and even in their wildest dreams if that were to ever happen I do not see any form of national ban taking place. State bans are much more likely which is why I would think someone from GA who is more concerned about abortion would vote against R's in the governors race and not the senate race.

I have to agree with Cyrusman here. If democrats can eliminate the filibuster then can’t republicans do the same thing to repeal it and affirmatively pass restrictions? Isn’t the elimination of the filibuster for appointees the reason Trump got 3 justice picks that did not have to appeal to a broad coalition?

That to me sounds like a recipe for A) political whiplash and B) leaders having an increasingly outsized amount of power with limited checks

I mean, you would, what with you and Cyrusman both being diehard Republican partisans.  There is no reason for anyone who is pro-choice to even consider voting Republican for Congress until the reinstatement of  Roe has been nationally codified.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Was pleasantly surprised by some of Walker's performance. Obviously there was a still a good deal of idiocy to go around - the solution to rising insulin prices being cheap gasoline, the prop stunt, etc- but I entered with literally zero expectations, and he held Warnock's feet to the fire incredibly effectively on the abortion issue, he declared with no reservations that he would accept any outcome in November, and he didn't completely sh*t the bed. Obviously, accepting the result of an election is not something for which someone should be given much kudos, but it was still pleasing to hear in this day and age.

Somehow I don't think one side saying the issue should be with a woman and her doctor and the other side saying "why are you aborting babies instead of baptizing them" is going to be seen at parity with most rational people

Walker responding "You want taxpayer funding for abortion, so you're bringing the government right back into the room" upon Warnock saying the doctor's room was too small for a woman, her doctor, and the government was a fantastic rebuttal, and one that Warnock didn't even deny.

Warnock's position on abortion is something that I've always been very uncomfortable about with him. He's adopting the generic Democratic position on the issue, and I don't think I've ever heard him say that he was personally pro-life or that he didn't morally condone the practice. Yes, he's a Democrat, but he's also a pastor, and I've always struggled with how a man of God can support a practice such as that.

Which specific bible verse explicitly says abortion is against God's law?  In fact, I'll make it even easier.  Just cite for me a single bible verse that uses the word "abortion" in any context.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/RiegerReport/status/1585728117200543748?

Hmm.

The first state is Arizona.  There's a point where you can make out one of the women saying "Kelly's a nice man" right before Schumer comments about being in danger in that race.  There's also a bit toward the end when they're talking about Georgia where Schumer says they (Warnock) have a small lead, but it's not a Democratic state.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I do not think there's a path to a Warnock 50% win on election night. Walker has been on a steady up and up in our trackers but is routinely falling short of 50% as well. The trendline looks good for him and if it continues he could do it, but I do believe a runoff is the likely outcome.

I expect Warnock to shift to base turnout mode rather than continuing the case against Walker in these final weeks. You can already see that in the Thanksgiving ad where he explicitly warns about the possibility of a runoff with no mention of Walker.

Scary stuff