Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1478554896425275395?s=20

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1478554249940578307?s=20

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Change has you Biden at 44/56 Approvals you know your GEESE ARE COOKED, CHANGE WAS THE MOST GENEROUS POLLSTER TO DS IN 2020

[wbrocks67]

YouGov/Economist is 40/50 for Adults, not sure about RV yet

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/tyivpnrtkb/econToplines.pdf

[GeorgiaModerate]

YouGov/Economist is 40/50 for Adults, not sure about RV yet

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/tyivpnrtkb/econToplines.pdf

RV is 43/51.  Tables are here: https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/g43s025yft/econTabReport.pdf

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They keep releasing Approvals but no state by state numbers but Voting Rights isn't passing anyways

[pbrower2a]

Democrats have just less than ten months in which to pass the Voting Rights bill. Because voting rights are cornerstones of democracy itself, and because the 13th, 14th, and 15th Amendments still have open-ended clauses for expanding civil rights, ending the filibuster on this is fully appropriate on this, if on nothing else. Due diligence is acceptable.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Is the consensus that the bump in Biden's numbers between Thanksgiving and Christmas had more to do with gas prices than anything? It would make sense for it to be transient if do but I have trouble believing that 5% or so moved on that basis.

I think that was a component of it, but probably not the only one.  In general, there is a holiday approval bump for Presidents which is also a likely component of it.  There also could be a general perception that inflation is leveling off.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Are his approvals actually just going back up because of gas prices?

The American people are... not smart.

American are smart. Biden's approvals likely hasn't gone up.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol I am not Roxas but we had 800K jobs and it's not Oct 31st underestimate Biden

Merrick Garland also said Trump isn't out of the woods on prosecution but it's gonna be tough to find a jury to Convict Trump and we saw a Rittenhouse verdict and jury might be all white but he still can get indicted

Even if Trump is indicted he won't run the PR will be so bad

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

All we get is trash 43 Approvals and ZOGBY and IPSOS BOTH HAVE Biden at 50/48 no state by state numbers and it's 10 mnths before an election it's stilly to think Rs are gonna win both Houses of Congress without state by state numbers just based on Approvals

I am not basing my Prediction map anymore on Approvals but wait for individual polling of states and the polls can be wrong they don't add Minority and Females support

No OH, NC Sen polls no MD, MA, AZ or KS Gov polls plse it's still 10 mnths and we have 800K jobs and Omnicron is gonna be over in April after flu season and in Cali Gas prices are going down to 4.00, it's not 5.00 any longer

[pbrower2a]

I expect plenty of state polls to be taken this weekend, mostly to be offered in the middle of next week. I may even start over with "2022 polls only", which would be little loss, as I have but one state on the "new" map, and that is new Hampshire, which gets polled often.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

You know in all the H2H matchups between Biden and Trump or DeSantis Trump or DeSantis never get more than 45 percent but we know Biden won with 50 percent of the vote in 2020

Romney, McCain, Bush W 2000, Trump all were around 45 percent, as I have always said it depends on Turnout 65/80 M will give us the EC map but a 2018 46/43 M will allow Rs to take the H by 10 seats they're not winning 50 seats and 35 Govs to put D's out of power for a decade

It's VBM not same day voting and Newsom won by  the same margin, we lost VA after 8 yrs

Hawley and Graham said that D's might keep the SENATE

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

IPSOS lied Biden isn't at 52/48 he is still at 43/50 percent bye You Gov and Harris is at 38 percent

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos Core Political Data, 1000 adults, Jan. 5-6.  Usually weekly, but skipped last two weeks for the holidays.

Approve 45 (-3)
Disapprove 51 (+5)

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

IPSOS lied Biden isn't at 52/48 he is still at 43/50 percent bye You Gov and Harris is at 38 percent

After you had called them out, Ipsos changed their lie to more believable 45/51.

https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2022-01/2022%20Ipsos%20Tracking%20-%20Core%20Political%20Presidential%20Approval%20Tracker%205%20thru%206%20January%202022_0.pdf

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

My matrix score is-6/0 that is D I can criticize D's and donate to whomever I want

I have donated to Tim Ryan I want a return on my investment

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

I note that 538 is now tracking Trump's favorability.

Feb 1st, 2021:
Trump favorability  -18
Biden's Approvals   +20


Jan 6th, 2022:
Trump favorability  -9
Biden's Approvals   -9

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/


The caveat is that few pollsters measure Trump's favorability, so tracker is mostly based on bad online trackers such as YouGov/Ipsos/Morning Consult.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Also this, but once again - different pollsters, therefore it's not an apple-to-apple comparison.


https://twitter.com/TomBevanRCP/status/1479439063547617289

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hello were still in a Pandemic

[pbrower2a]

I never thought of President Biden as the sort to slam the hammer, but he did so on Thursday. He kept the skewering of the Putsch as non-partisan as possible... but it is obvious that Democrats have no cause for fear of consequences.

Polling this weekend might be interesting. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I never thought of President Biden as the sort to slam the hammer, but he did so on Thursday. He kept the skewering of the Putsch as non-partisan as possible... but it is obvious that Democrats have no cause for fear of consequences.

Polling this weekend might be interesting. 

ZOGBY and IPSOS HAVE BIDEN AT 50/48 AS I have always said it's about turnout in 2018 it was 46/43 M vote turnout and it was same day voting and in 2020 it was VBM 80/75 M turnout the polls underestimate  Minority turnout

It's freaking 10 mnths before the election and to secure WI/PA and MI it won't take much so I don't know why Vaccinated Bear keep polling these 40 percent Approvals it's freaking 10 mnths before the Election and 10 pts to 50 can be increased by Minority turnout to solidify the blue Wall which Trump didn't have he was a criminal

[Hollywood]

I never thought of President Biden as the sort to slam the hammer, but he did so on Thursday. He kept the skewering of the Putsch as non-partisan as possible... but it is obvious that Democrats have no cause for fear of consequences.

Polling this weekend might be interesting. 

ZOGBY and IPSOS HAVE BIDEN AT 50/48 AS I have always said it's about turnout in 2018 it was 46/43 M vote turnout and it was same day voting and in 2020 it was VBM 80/75 M turnout the polls underestimate  Minority turnout

It's freaking 10 mnths before the election and to secure WI/PA and MI it won't take much so I don't know why Vaccinated Bear keep polling these 40 percent Approvals it's freaking 10 mnths before the Election and 10 pts to 50 can be increased by Minority turnout to solidify the blue Wall which Trump didn't have he was a criminal

Biden's Approval Rating is more like 40-56%, and it's like 33-60% in swing states according to Civiqs.  His approval has been ticking down since the VA/NJ races, while disapproval has continued to elevate towards a Rasmussen like result.  46-49% of voters strongly disapprove of Biden.  The crazy swing that's been popping up in all the polls is among young voters (27-57%), as well as the 25% of Democrats the either Disapprove or Don't have an Opinion.  Georgia is most likely going to the Republicans, and I'm struggling with whether to lock-in my call right now.  42-46% among 18,000 Hispanics in the Civiq Poll continues the trend of lowering support for Biden (Biden has lost 6% of his Hispanic support since November).  It's the younger Hispanics that really hate Biden across the sunbelt.   https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_biden?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true&map=true   

Zogby is at 45-51 at the time of your post, and both that pollster and Zogby are extreme outliers.  The pollsters you usually mention are plugging in some crazy numbers that would suggest a Democrat tsunami in 2022, and Biden's approval is still ticking down among even the most biased data samples (i.e. D+5-13).  Yet Morning Consult and Change Research still have Biden under-water 40-52%, and it's really 55/56% Disapprove when you apply their bias.  That makes Rasmussen, Suffolk and Trafalgar look like real solid performers going into the 2022 election season.       

Hysterical Note: The Zogby Poll indicates that a majority of voters think Biden and the Democrats are taking credit for Trump's accomplishments. lol. 
 
Moreover, the polls didn't underestimate minority turnout in 2020.  The difference between data in the Zogby/Ipsos polls as opposed to other pollsters has nothing to do with minorities.  2020 had nothing to do with strong minority turnout.  Joe Biden is President because he won a real good portion of suburban, small town and rural white vote in swing districts.  This obsession you and other Democrats have with race has totally blinded you from the obvious.  If Republicans get 59-62% of white voters as some polls are indicating, the game is over for Democrats. 

BTW... You know the pollsters have done a better job inputting turnout numbers into their data sets (motivation/enthusiasm of voters).   The Strongly Disapprove data is also pretty good for turnout predictions, because hating someone is great motivation for showing up to the polls, and those numbers will last for the next 10 months.       

Everything I've seen indicates that Democrats are going to be pretty well-F'ed by the time the 2022 elections role around.   

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

ZOGBY Poll have Biden at 49 Job Approval percent for your info, but 43/50 Job Performance


https://zogbyanalytics.com/news/1081-the-zogby-poll-president-biden-s-job-approval-and-performance-biden-s-job-approval-improves-job-performance-remains-underwater-biden-losing-ground-with-swing-voters



I never said D's were ahead theyre destined to lose 10 seats in the H but it's preposterous to think think that Biden is gonna be in all polling including ZOGBY and IPSOS THAT HE ON ELECTION NIGHT IS GONNA BE AT 40 PERCENT And BBB and Voting Rights still might pass and it's 3.9 percent Unemployment

.lol Trump in IPSOS AND YOU GOV ARE AT WORSE APPROVAL THAN BIDEN 39 in You Gov and IPSOS 44 because Trump is an Insurrectionists

[Hollywood]

ZOGBY Poll have Biden at 49 Job Approval percent for your info, but 43/50 Job Performance


https://zogbyanalytics.com/news/1081-the-zogby-poll-president-biden-s-job-approval-and-performance-biden-s-job-approval-improves-job-performance-remains-underwater-biden-losing-ground-with-swing-voters



I never said D's were ahead theyre destined to lose 10 seats in the H but it's preposterous to think think that Biden is gonna be in all polling including ZOGBY and IPSOS THAT HE ON ELECTION NIGHT IS GONNA BE AT 40 PERCENT And BBB and Voting Rights still might pass and it's 3.9 percent Unemployment

.lol Trump in IPSOS AND YOU GOV ARE AT WORSE APPROVAL THAN BIDEN 39 in You Gov and IPSOS 44 because Trump is an Insurrectionists

Sorry.  I mixed up Zogby with Ipso's latest poll.  My bad. I get the distinction that you've explained from the Zogby Poll between approval and job performance.  The data just doesn't make any sense to me.  How is it that 25% of Conservatives and 20% of Republicans approve of Biden when that is an embarrassingly incorrect data point that is 250-500% outside of the average, as well as the results in Virginia and New Jersey.  You know 93% of Conservatives voted for Youngkin?  Come on. 
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

Also, Zogby has it 30-65% among Independents, but Biden is getting 5 times as many Republicans?  No way.  Look at the 2017 VA exit poll political identification data.  There's a 50-50 split among independents, and Democrats had a 41% while the GOP had low turnout.  In 2021, Rs had a 10 point advantage and had pretty even turnout with the Ds.  So... If a poll is showing approval from a bunch of people in the opposition party, it means they aren't showing up.  That's what happened to the Rs in 2017 and the Ds in 2021.  If 65% of Independents disapprove and 5% don't know/won't answer, then how is it that Biden has approval from the our base?  Go to CNN to find the approvals for Biden during the 2021 race, and it's in line with the Civiqs statewide poll that came out 1/6. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2017-election/va/     

Why Civiqs?  Civiqs has better data with 144,000 respondents across the 50 states, and opinions are routinely updated to mark the trends of the whole groups.  They are a Democrat pollster indicating similar results to Trafalgar, Rasmussen, Suffolk, Change, RMG, Gallup, Marist, InsiderAdvantage, Monmouth, Q, and the Wall Street Journal.   https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_biden?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true&map=true
 
I'm going to LMAO when GA, NC, AZ, NV, WI, and PA all flip to the GOP.  If I'm looking at the WV and AZ data as Manchen and Sinama, I'd sooner join the Republican Party before I voted for BBB and Make Voter Fraud Great Again Legislation.  The biggest downfall for the Democrats and establishment Republicans will be the "Trump is an insurrectionist" card and the Twitter bans.