Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[pbrower2a]

Whitmer Approvals not GOOD 46/49 and Biden 40/56 in MI🤭🤭🤭

At this stage 46/49 is typically good enough for re-election for an incumbent.  The reasons:

1. Incumbents usually show why they were elected in the first place. Their electoral support slips as they do the messy but necessary work of governing or legislating. What they promise isn't always available, as there will be some resistance -- at the least from the opposition party. The typical incumbent gets a vote share of roughly 6.5% more than what early support is in the winter preceding the re-election campaign.

Here's what Nate Silver had to say in 2010:

What the actual evidence shows... is the following:

1) It is extremely common for an incumbent come back to win re-election while having less than 50 percent of the vote in early polls.

2) In comparison to early polls, there is no demonstrable tendency for challengers to pick up a larger share of the undecided vote than incumbents.

3) Incumbents almost always get a larger share of the actual vote than they do in early polls (as do challengers). They do not “get what they get in the tracking”; they almost always get more.

4) However, the incumbent’s vote share in early polls may in fact be a better predictor of the final margin in the race than the opponent’s vote share. That is, it may be proper to focus more on the incumbent’s number than the opponent’s when evaluating such a poll — even though it is extremely improper to assume that the incumbent will not pick up any additional percentage of the vote.

This analysis focuses only on early polls: those conducted between January and June of an incumbent’s election year. I do not attempt to evaluate such claims with respect to late polls, such as those conducted in the weeks immediately preceding an election. It is late polls which are traditionally the subject of the so-called “incumbent rule“, which is the idea that voters who remain undecided late in the race tend to break toward the challenger at the ballot booth. (Note, however, the evidence for the late version of the incumbent rule is also mixed.)

For my study, I looked at all gubernatorial and Senate contests in the 2006, 2008 and 2009 election cycles in which (i) one of the candidates was an incumbent; (ii) there was at least one poll in the race conducted between January and June of the election year, as listed at Pollster.com, and (iii) the two major-party candidates collectively accounted for at least 90 percent of the vote in November. A total of 63 contests passed these screens and were included. Although the third criterion, which disposes of races in which there was a significant third-party vote, is not ideal in certain ways, it eliminates only 4 races and the conclusions here would not substantially change if they were included.

For the analysis, I took a simple average of all early polls as included in the Pollster.com database. In accordance with Pollster.com’s practice, this includes partisan polls and multiple polls conducted by the same pollster. In the vast majority of races, at least two polls were available.

The analysis is summarized in the graph below. Along the horizontal axis, we have the average vote share that the incumbent candidate received in early polls; along the vertical, his actual share of the vote in the November election. The circle denoting each race is filled-in in the event of elections that the incumbent won, and blank in elections that he lost.

The data (2006-2009):



Incumbents can lose if they run inept or scandal-plagued campaigns against strong challengers, as George Allen did in 2006. He started with a projected 51.5% vote and ended up with 49.5%. His infamous use of an obscure ethnic slur that people learned about quickly and his staffers' thuggish behavior may have destroyed most of the usual advantages of an incumbent that practically anyone could have seen easily winning re-election in the forthcoming November  election in November 2006 from his early polling. To say that everything that could go wrong for him went wrong explains why incumbents usually win if they have nearly 50% support early, but Senator George Allen blew his chances.

 https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/myth-of-incumbent-50-rule/

2. Incumbents get media attention as challengers don't. Incumbents can even appear at ribbon-cutting ceremonies that are irrelevant to the incumbent's participation in the process.

In case you ask about breaking scandals: voters are the last to know, but the political journalists do. Those with a suspected scandal, whether sex or corruption, get little attention in the media. Political journalists avoid covering them if at all possible. Those operating under a cloud usually show it in their demeanor, and they aren't ebullient enough to keep voters' optimism up. Their early support is typically abysmal, and they have no chance of recovery. [/quote]   


3. Incumbents shape the political discussion, defining the agenda of government and creating the talking points to be delivered to the media and to campaigns. As an example, Donald Trump and Republican front groups were able to spread smears of Democrats as sympathetic to the Commie regime in Cuba and the pinko regime in Venezuela toward Cuban-Americans who are receptive to such. This is far less successful against an incumbent who has a record of avoiding making sympathetic statements toward Castro or Maduro but it can work against a challenger who has said nothing. It worked for Trump in 2020 in Florida but it did not work for Romney in Florida in 2012.

4. Signs of wave elections against incumbents appear early as low approval ratings in the winter.  Such implies that special interests have lined up lavish financing for the campaigns of challengers amenable to those special interests. Perceptions of quality mean nothing if the funding for a corporate stooge such as Ron Johnson can overpower someone like Russ Feingold who is a liberal hero in a moderate state. The perfect politician for winning the support of Corporate America is someone who believes in a new aristocratic order in which no human suffering can ever be excessive in the service of shareholders and executives.   

5. The incumbents who do unusually badly are those appointed to office. They often ran no electoral campaign and often have yet to show why they can get elected the first time. Incumbents who ran spirited and competent campaigns usually do much the same the next time. Appointed incumbents must prove that they can do so. With Senators Tina Smith (D-MN) and Tim Sc0ott (R-SC), that has been shown in such an election. They are no longer "appointed". A race between an appointed incumbent and a challenger is much like an open seat election.

6.  With Silver's data one sees few incumbents with support in the low thirties or lower. Such incumbents rarely run for re-election.   

OK -- here's the stinger: midterm elections typically give advantages to the Party not holding the White House. Usually people have rosy memories of what preceded the current President.  Maybe the current one didn't solve enough problems fast enough. Until we have strong proof otherwise, Democrats can expect a huge R wave. The special interests who believe that no human suffering can be excessive so long as it serves the power, indulgence, and gain of elites have plenty of time in which to line up lavish funding for those politicians willing to do their bidding. (Don't fool yourself: the economic elites of America are no morally better today than the German elites of ninety years ago who supported you-know-who because he would repress leftists and destroy unions while privatizing public assets cheaply to those elites. America's corporate farmers are little different than the Junkers who were perfectly satisfied with a band of thugs because its leader promised to protect German agriculture from competition.   
 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The COVID CASES are no big deal, I don't have it but people refuse to get vaccinated

Not to mention Biden doesn't visit the Border it seems like he doesn't care and Beto is a good candidate if there wasn't any Pandemic but he is to the left of Biden on The Border

Biden and Beto broken Borders is Pre Pandemic not Post Pandemic, he thought that Covid was gonna end in July  and it didn't that's why SISOLAK and CCM may lose, but Reid may give them a bump

But on the end we may still hold the 304/234 Blue wall due to the Insurrectionists that the Commission may right before the Election

I don't see the Rs cracking the Blue wall until they do but they wi win their 234 states, which sets it up for more Divided Govt RH and DS


Voting Rights Legislation won't create Majority Minority Districts to stave off R gains in TX, NC, GA and FL again due to Border Security, but can eradicate some Voting Suppression methods in WI, AZ and GA the District lines are already drawn and Crts have Judicial Review Rs can sue in Crt against Voting Rights which the Crts already said Gerrymandering is okay and Voter ID, but not Voting Suppression methods

We are all connected to the DMV which you get a State ID or Driver's License to register to vote anyways

46/49 isn't that bad in MI but 30/65 is terrible in TX

[Redban]

Biden polls will gradually get better and he only needs to be at 50/45; on Election and there still can be a blue wave and hopefully Crist beats DeSantis Trump only won FL bye 3 any blue wave can blow DeSantis out especially if Voting Rights pass

COVID and Pandemic will end in April like it always do after Flu season, we opened Bars, Stadiums and Dorms after flu season last year

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Well if you go bye History as I told Hollywood 15/15/20 represent the Blue Wall Latinx, BlKs, Asians and other ethnic Minorities and 20 percent make up non Evangelical White

40/45 percent represent Evangelical especially White men
That's 50/45 exactly what Biden gotten and we probably get 65/60M votes instead of 80/75 M 30M will be missing in a Midterm because so many youngsters last time came out and voted due to Biden giving out 2K stimulus checks and promised student loan discharges and prosecuted Trump



A 65M turnout will be a 2016 turnout but we can still solidify the blue wall with that turnout but we need a Prez turnout to get to get OH, NC and FL and that's not in the cards right now 19 and 30 yr olds are gonna throw away their ballot


Our H, S and Gov delegates represent 304/234 anyways the problem is the H with 221 D 3 votes are only needed for Rs to take over


Senate can be 52/48 and Govs 26)24 D

IPSOS HAS BIDEN AT 48)48 NOT 43)51 THAT GALLUP HAS HIM

You Gov has D's leading on GCB

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

Latinx

You know we worship you man, but don't use that word.

[sting in the rafters]

Thru year 1 and Biden's approval rating is roughly where Trump's was. It's important to remember however a fair chunk of Biden's disapproval is coming from the left, whereas Trump was consistently hitting 90+% with GOP and 80-85% with conservatives. That implies an opening to rally support if Ds can fulfill campaign promises, inflation lessens into the New Year as aggregate supply improves, and the COVID situation improves.

However, it also means his floor could be a lot lower, and there hasn't been much reason to inspire enthusiasm.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Thru year 1 and Biden's approval rating is roughly where Trump's was. It's important to remember however a fair chunk of Biden's disapproval is coming from the left, whereas Trump was consistently hitting 90+% with GOP and 80-85% with conservatives. That implies an opening to rally support if Ds can fulfill campaign promises, inflation lessens into the New Year as aggregate supply improves, and the COVID situation improves.

However, it also means his floor could be a lot lower, and there hasn't been much reason to inspire enthusiasm.

What, there is BBB and jobs are gonna be 3 percent and the economy is booming Trump was impeached twice and was a criminal, even if Rs take control they are giving you a facade we still gonna have Covid it isn't over yet as many people have said many times on this Approvals, do we have to keep saying the same thing over and over again

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We won 80 M votes and have won the PVI in 2o16 too, turnout goes down in Midterms we had 46 M vote in 2o18 to 80M vote for us in 2029 they is potentially to be a Prez vote and every state is on the table

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Reid death was tragic but it's gonna give a Sympathy bump to CCM, SISOLAK and D's just like Reagan death helped Bush W in 2004, Mel Carnahan helped Jean Carnahan in 2000 and Gabby Gifford's helped Mark Kelly

[GeneralMacArthur]

This thread is literally impossible to have a conversation in because of olawakandi spam.

I get you guys think this is cute but I wish we could actually talk about Biden's polling.

[Horus]

This thread is literally impossible to have a conversation in because of olawakandi spam.

I get you guys think this is cute but I wish we could actually talk about Biden's polling.

You know you don't have to post here.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This thread is literally impossible to have a conversation in because of olawakandi spam.

I get you guys think this is cute but I wish we could actually talk about Biden's polling.

Buzz off

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This thread is literally impossible to have a conversation in because of olawakandi spam.

I get you guys think this is cute but I wish we could actually talk about Biden's polling.

Is it spamming to keep believing in a defeatist attitude and say D's are Doomed and the Election is 10 mnths away and all Biden needs to be is at 50/45 to solidify the blue wall and in IPSOS says he's at 48 because Unemployment is almost 3 percent

Try talking about others spam too, like the user I replied to today

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Cook just made RS the clear Favs in the House

[Bootes Void]

Thru year 1 and Biden's approval rating is roughly where Trump's was. It's important to remember however a fair chunk of Biden's disapproval is coming from the left, whereas Trump was consistently hitting 90+% with GOP and 80-85% with conservatives. That implies an opening to rally support if Ds can fulfill campaign promises, inflation lessens into the New Year as aggregate supply improves, and the COVID situation improves.

However, it also means his floor could be a lot lower, and there hasn't been much reason to inspire enthusiasm.

Hasn’t Biden approval rating among dems close to 90%, it’s among independents where he has collapsed hard

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Thru year 1 and Biden's approval rating is roughly where Trump's was. It's important to remember however a fair chunk of Biden's disapproval is coming from the left, whereas Trump was consistently hitting 90+% with GOP and 80-85% with conservatives. That implies an opening to rally support if Ds can fulfill campaign promises, inflation lessens into the New Year as aggregate supply improves, and the COVID situation improves.

However, it also means his floor could be a lot lower, and there hasn't been much reason to inspire enthusiasm.

Biden is in the negatives with independents by a wide margin

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Thru year 1 and Biden's approval rating is roughly where Trump's was. It's important to remember however a fair chunk of Biden's disapproval is coming from the left, whereas Trump was consistently hitting 90+% with GOP and 80-85% with conservatives. That implies an opening to rally support if Ds can fulfill campaign promises, inflation lessens into the New Year as aggregate supply improves, and the COVID situation improves.

However, it also means his floor could be a lot lower, and there hasn't been much reason to inspire enthusiasm.

Biden is in the negatives with independents by a wide margin

Lol IPSOS polls show Biden polls improving he was 48/48 I'm IPsOS

D's aren't losing 50!seats and Rs aren't winning 35 Govs, it's 10 mnths till the election

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Pollsters can't predict turnout it's a VBM and in 2016 it was 65/62M/ 2018 46/43 and 2020 80/75 M all D majority it's a VBM not same day voting the Rs are in trouble if there is a 60 percent or more turnout no matter what the polls say if it was same day voting you can expect 46/43M turnout but it's not that's why Newsom still won 63/37

Who won the NPVI in 2016/18/20 D's did 65/52/46/43/80/75M

If we get 80 M we get 304:map plus wave insurence, the H and 53 Senators and 26 Majority of Govs KS, GA, AZ, MD, MA plus the rust belt

It's 10nths till the election

AGAIN TURNOUT MODELS FOR MIDTERMS ARE WRONG BECAUSE ITS VBM NOT SAME DAY VOTING IT CAN BE A 60 PERCENT TURNOUT AGAIN WHICH I EXPECT

Just go to Election results and see the decline in Midterms and Prez
and same day voting like I did and see the 80 M turnout last yr in VBM you see

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Polls showing us down 39/55 are trying to discourage D's from voting, IPSOS has BIDEN at 52/48

[EastwoodS]

Polls showing us down 39/55 are trying to discourage D's from voting, IPSOS has BIDEN at 52/48

Stfu

[pbrower2a]

There have been some interactive polls directed at readers of right-wing news sites, and in view of the clientele of those sites one can expect a strongly-negative view of president Biden.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Polls showing us down 39/55 are trying to discourage D's from voting, IPSOS has BIDEN at 52/48

Stfu

When was the last time an incumbent Prez lost with unemployment at record lows Bush W won at 6.0 percent unemployment and Biden is at 4.2 unemployment the reason why Trump almost won is because unemployment was at 7.0 percent we are the incumbent party IPSOS HAS Biden AT 52)48


Facts we won NPVI 2016 65/62
Fact we won NPVI 2018 46)43
Fact we won NPVI 80/75 M

Fact Trump, Bush W 2000, Romney and McCain are 45 percent Prez Candidates

The Rs are confused because they win the NPVI House vote only because 1995/2007 LEWINSKY messed up D's chances in. 2000 that's why we were out of power in the House so long no Lewinsky, Jerry Brown or Mario Cuomo Prez House D Majority

15/15/20 Latinos, Blks/Non Evangelical whites make up 50 percent of D's 45 percent of Evangelical make up 40/45 the exact number Biden got in 2020

We Ds are the Majority party there are more females non Evangelical White men and minorities that make up the pie than Evangelical

[GeneralMacArthur]

This thread is literally impossible to have a conversation in because of olawakandi spam.

I get you guys think this is cute but I wish we could actually talk about Biden's polling.

You know you don't have to post here.

Cool let me just go start another thread about an opinion poll and have it get merged into this one and drowned in olawakandi spam.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This thread is literally impossible to have a conversation in because of olawakandi spam.

I get you guys think this is cute but I wish we could actually talk about Biden's polling.

You know you don't have to post here.

Cool let me just go start another thread about an opinion poll and have it get merged into this one and drowned in olawakandi spam.

Plse

[Bootes Void]

Any new polls lately or have the pollsters stopped caring. I can’t imagine a polling drought is good to know where things are especially compared to the Trump era where there was a poll everyday