Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Jan. 31-Feb. 2, 1500 adults including 1272 RV

Adults:

Approve 46 (-5)
Disapprove 38 (+5)

Strongly approve 30 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 29 (+6)

RV:

Approve 50 (-2)
Disapprove 40 (+4)

Strongly approve 34 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 31 (+5)

If anyone is wondering, the party breakdowns are:

Last week: D 32, R 25, I 43
This week: D 36, R 30, I 33

[GeorgiaModerate]

Echelon Insights, Jan. 20-26, 1006 RV

Approve 55
Disapprove 33

(numbers are per 538, the link requires registration)

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

First Quinnipiac poll-

Approve: 49%
Disapprove: 36%


FAVORABLE RATINGS-

Joe Biden has a 53% favorable rating and a 38% unfavorable.
Kamala Harris has a 45% favorable rating and a 35% unfavorable. 18% do not have an opinion.
Jill Biden has a 44% favorable rating and an 18% unfavorable. 35% don't have an opinion.


CONGRESS JOB APPROVAL RATINGS-

Democrats: 44/46% (-2)
Chuck Schumer: 37/42% (-5)
Nancy Pelosi: 45/47% (-2)

Republicans: 26/64% (-38)
Mitch McConnell: 21/67% (-46)
Kevin McCarthy: 27/45% (-18)

I do understand that Quinnipiac had a notable D bias in the past two election cycles, but this isn't the only pollster showing a massive favorability gap between the Democrats and the Republicans.

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3688

[pbrower2a]

Wow! I thought that Mitch McConnell would have done a better job of saving his political skin. Too little, too late?

We have a problem with the perception of the stability of our political order:

36. Do you think that - the state of the nation's democracy is a crisis, a problem but not a crisis, or not a problem at all?
                     ADULTS.................................................
                                                               WHITE........
                                                               4 YR COLL DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Crisis               45%    49%    45%    42%    45%    45%    43%    47%
Problem/Not crisis   43     35     48     45     42     44     50     42
Not a problem at all  9     11      5     12     10      8      6      7
DK/NA                 3      5      2      1      3      3      1      4
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    NonWht
 
Crisis               40%    41%    50%    51%    46%    46%    46%    44%
Problem/Not crisis   41     48     42     42     41     48     45     42
Not a problem at all 15     11      6      5     10      3      7     13
DK/NA                 3      -      2      2      3      2      2      2

I cannot imagine anyone asking this question before January 6.
 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

So much for Speaker Mccarthy

[JRP1994]

Where on earth is Gallup??

[GeorgiaModerate]

AP/NORC, Jan. 28-Feb. 1, 1055 adults

Approve 61
Disapprove 38

Strongly approve 35
Strongly disapprove 26

[Bootes Void]

First Quinnipiac poll-

Approve: 49%
Disapprove: 36%


FAVORABLE RATINGS-

Joe Biden has a 53% favorable rating and a 38% unfavorable.
Kamala Harris has a 45% favorable rating and a 35% unfavorable. 18% do not have an opinion.
Jill Biden has a 44% favorable rating and an 18% unfavorable. 35% don't have an opinion.


CONGRESS JOB APPROVAL RATINGS-

Democrats: 44/46% (-2)
Chuck Schumer: 37/42% (-5)
Nancy Pelosi: 45/47% (-2)

Republicans: 26/64% (-38)
Mitch McConnell: 21/67% (-46)
Kevin McCarthy: 27/45% (-18)

I do understand that Quinnipiac had a notable D bias in the past two election cycles, but this isn't the only pollster showing a massive favorability gap between the Democrats and the Republicans.

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3688

According to Quinnipiac, Joe Biden has a 29% approval rating with white men along with 55% approval rating with white women. They still havent fixed up their polling mistakes, what a joke.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

https://mobile.twitter.com/nytimes/status/1357418698001285120

[Not Me, Us]

61% seems high to me given how divided and partisan the country is, but we are still in the honeymoon period, so we'll see what happens.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden is closer to 51% than 60% and 2022 can be a neutral Environment, but we don't know what the Economy is gonna be like next yr

People are still being skipped by, with Stimulus checks and the IRS will be processing tax returns and people have to file it on their returns

This means that the 1400 will be skipped as well to people

[wbrocks67]

Democrats (14%) gave more support in early 2017 of Trump than Republicans (11%) are this month to Biden. Amazing.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden approvals are 47/42 or 51/49 somewhere between there, bit they are similar to Trump right before the Election before they cratered after insurrection

That's why we lost KS, IA, MT and TX

[Tender Branson]

You are mixing up a lot of different polling methods in your map.

You use favourable ratings of Biden, approval of his transition period and actual job approval after he was sworn in.

This makes your map almost useless.

[Sharpshooter]

My prediction is that Biden will start with a 62-30 job approval rating in an average of the first 10 RCP or 538 polls.

I think that's too high.  His favorable ratings aren't even that high.

I'll go with a RCP range of 55-57%

Wrote this on the 21st January before a single poll was released.

10 polls are finally in now on RCP with gallup being the latest addition.

54.3%

Wasn't too far off.

I guess predictions will be how long it takes for his RCP average to go below 50%.

Took Obama till the 25th of November 2009.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

My prediction is that Biden will start with a 62-30 job approval rating in an average of the first 10 RCP or 538 polls.

I think that's too high.  His favorable ratings aren't even that high.

I'll go with a RCP range of 55-57%

Wrote this on the 21st January before a single poll was released.

10 polls are finally in now on RCP with gallup being the latest addition.

54.3%

Wasn't too far off.

I guess predictions will be how long it takes for his RCP average to go below 50%.

Took Obama till the 25th of November 2009.

Depends on when he starts passing controversial legislation (which could be pretty soon if Republicans go in on DC statehood), or if the economy doesn’t improve as quickly as people are hoping, or if the vaccine rollout sputters.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden is popular in the states he won and Trump is popular in the states he won, Biden at ,55% is overstated.

Job numbers came out with 49K they are brutal

The cratering of the R polls after insurrection has stopped, that's why only ,47% approve of conviction. It doesn't have a majority of Support


The D's waited too long to CONVICT Trymp

[Beet]

Biden is popular in the states he won and Trump is popular in the states he won, Biden at ,55% is overstated.

Job numbers came out with 49K they are brutal

That's the last month of Trump. Survey was done in mid-Jan. so Trump was still in office.

[Tender Branson]

You are mixing up a lot of different polling methods in your map.

You use favourable ratings of Biden, approval of his transition period and actual job approval after he was sworn in.

This makes your map almost useless.

You are mistaken.

Nowhere do I use any "Approval of Transition" polls. I use only both voter impressions of Biden and actual job approval after he was sworn in (which I imagine will be very similar, at least far more accurate than Approval of Transition).

For the first California Poll from Berkeley IGS, I use responses to the question "Overall voter impressions of President Joe Biden?", found on Page 2 of the document.

For the second California Poll from PPIC, I use Biden's Presidential job approval, found on Page 14 of the document.

For the Georgia poll, I use answers to the question "Overall, do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of Joe Biden.", found on Page 25 of the document.

For the New Hampshire poll, I use Biden's Presidential job approval, found on Page 1 of the document.

For the New York poll, I use Biden's "favorability ratings", found on Page 3 of the document.

For the North Carolina poll, I use Biden's Presidential job approval, found on Page 3 of the document.

For the first Texas poll from UH, I use Biden's "favorability ratings", found on Page 3 of the document.

For the second Texas poll from Data for Progress, I use Biden's favorability rating found on Page 2 of the document.

For the Utah poll, I use Biden's favorability rating.

For the Wisconsin poll, I use Biden's favorability rating on Page 1 of the document.

---

It's quite strange, though, that you accuse me of mixing up Transition polls and approval polls, when, in fact, in your first map, you did just that.

You used the answer to the question: "Do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly approve of the way the Joe Biden is handling his role in the presidential transition?" (found on page 6 of the document) when choosing your coloring for Georgia. On the other hand, for your New Hampshire poll, you used Presidential job approval.

I assume that map is, as you've said, "almost useless"?

---

I do have another issue with my map, though, and that's because I've been mixing up polls from Registered voters and Adults (which I frankly don't think matters too much because the FiveThirtyEight average shows that those two only have a 1% margin difference between themselves, but I'd like to take care of this now rather than have to deal with it later on). Which one do you think I should use?

But you cannot mix together favorable ratings polls and job approval polls, they are completely different.

In my first map, I used the GA poll because of GeorgiaModerate's post - which I thought was a first poll of GA with actual approvals after he was sworn in.

After checking the poll PDF, it seems as if the poll only asked about the transition period.

So, only my map with NH should count then.

As for your map, please remove all the "favorable" polls.

[GeorgiaModerate]

We shouldn't be getting any more of the favorability polls anymore, now, correct? Now Biden's term has started and most polls taken will be Presidential approval?

Some polls will ask both approval and favorability questions.

[Tender Branson]

We shouldn't be getting any more of the favorability polls anymore, now, correct? Now Biden's term has started and most polls taken will be Presidential approval?

Some polls will ask both approval and favorability questions.

Is there usually a difference between the responses to these two questions (in cases where both are asked)?

Yes.

Favourability is how a politician is seen as a person by the public.

Biden can be seen +5 favourable and in the same poll could get a +20 job approval rating.

These two metrics can be miles apart.

[GeorgiaModerate]

We shouldn't be getting any more of the favorability polls anymore, now, correct? Now Biden's term has started and most polls taken will be Presidential approval?

Some polls will ask both approval and favorability questions.

Is there usually a difference between the responses to these two questions (in cases where both are asked)?

There can be, depending on the President.  You could have someone who was well-liked for his personal character but perceived as doing a poor job, or vice versa.  Just guessing, Carter would probably fit the first category, and post-impeachment Clinton the second.

[South Dakota Democrat]

We shouldn't be getting any more of the favorability polls anymore, now, correct? Now Biden's term has started and most polls taken will be Presidential approval?

Some polls will ask both approval and favorability questions.

Is there usually a difference between the responses to these two questions (in cases where both are asked)?

Yes.

Favourability is how a politician is seen as a person by the public.

Biden can be seen +5 favourable and in the same poll could get a +20 job approval rating.

These two metrics can be miles apart.

Yup.  Especially see Clinton, Bill.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's not news that we are in Recession mode and in a Biden midterm, the South with Redistricting in the House and Senate is gonna move Right.

D's have Senate and Govs in the 291/247 blue that will replicate the blue map but the South is gonna move Right not left

That's why 55/60 approvals are hogwash it's more like 50% and only a 47/40 supports conviction of Trump not even a majority

[pbrower2a]

Joe Biden job approval rating by state:

GA: Biden+26
NH: Biden+18

Key:

30% red shade: Biden up 1-5%
40% red shade: Biden up 5-10%
50% red shade: Biden up 10-15%
60% red shade: Biden up 15-20%
70% red shade: Biden up 20-25%
80% red shade: Biden up 25-30%
90% red shade: Biden up 30%+

50% green shade: tie

30% blue shade: Biden down 1-5%
40% blue shade: Biden down 5-10%
50% blue shade: Biden down 10-15%
60% blue shade: Biden down 15-20%
70% blue shade: Biden down 20-25%
80% blue shade: Biden down 25-30%
90% blue shade: Biden down 30%+

It is approval ratings, and not favorability ratings. Favorability ratings are relevant when they are blatant  (as in states that are not close and usually do not get polled, like New York or Oklahoma) because the states rarely decide an election, but they always must defer to approval. Would I use a favorability rating for Illinois? Sure. Wisconsin? Absolutely not.

Transition ratings are relevant until the reality of political life sets in.  That will set in soon enough, and states in which transition ratings are measured will become the ones in which, I would expect, polling will be repeated and either say much the same or reveal that something has changed.

For now I am sticking with Tender Branson's model. We are at 21 months away from the midterm elections and 45 months away from the next Presidential election. With Obama (who posed no questions of health) and Trump (who saw power as an aphrodisiac) there were no questions of the desire for a Second Term. President Biden is entering the zone of age in which people drop off like flies, and those that don't usually recognize their limitations catching up to their talents.

Approval numbers give some guide to the likelihood of an incumbent politician winning re-election. With a Governor or Senator, approval within one state is good enough. With the Presidency, approval in enough key states is good enough. I expect to fill in to Tender's map.