Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[pbrower2a]

For an incumbent Governor or Senator. approval typically drops off about 6% from the level of the vote in the election in roughly half a year. Almost all Presidents were either Senators or State governors.  To keep such from happening one must be either extremely good or extremely lucky. For a President this was just the same for Donald Trump as for Barack Obama. Governing and legislating are tricky propositions either way.

But campaigning is necessary for almost all incumbents seeking re-election. Putting on the happy face and recapitulating one's promises, appealing to supporters from the last time, and taking pot-shots at an opponent come naturally to most pols. That also describes Barack Obama and Donald Trump. Going into campaign mode is good for getting an electoral result about 6% higher than an approval rating in the winter before the election.

There has not been the severe drop-off from the electoral result from about 51% to 45% for President Biden... yet. Something could happens to bring that about, or even worse. We can all trust that America's most ruthless plutocrats have their dream agenda and would love to enforce it. They might yet et their way, but nobody can reasonably predict how that happens, let alone that it will.    

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

For an incumbent Governor or Senator. approval typically drops off about 6% from the level of the vote in the election in roughly half a year. Almost all Presidents were either Senators or State governors.  To keep such from happening one must be either extremely good or extremely lucky. For a President this was just the same for Donald Trump as for Barack Obama. Governing and legislating are tricky propositions either way.

But campaigning is necessary for almost all incumbents seeking re-election. Putting on the happy face and recapitulating one's promises, appealing to supporters from the last time, and taking pot-shots at an opponent come naturally to most pols. That also describes Barack Obama and Donald Trump. Going into campaign mode is good for getting an electoral result about 6% higher than an approval rating in the winter before the election.

There has not been the severe drop-off from the electoral result from about 51% to 45% for President Biden... yet. Something could happens to bring that about, or even worse. We can all trust that America's most ruthless plutocrats have their dream agenda and would love to enforce it. They might yet et their way, but nobody can reasonably predict how that happens, let alone that it will.    

Generic ballot is tied at  Rs 42/42 Ds

https://twitter.com/FamilicideMC/status/1417936313148452868

So much for the Rosey maps scenario

Rs are gonna Filibuster the debt ceiling bill and D's aren't gonna get their 3.5,T Reconciliation that lacks 1K Stimulus checks for everyone, I am glad, because what's good of a D spending bill that doesn't include 1K checks, Biden got elected on UBI payments he isn't an R, D's need Stimulus checks we're not Rs

Medicare Expansion, we already have Dental in a dual Coverage of Medicare and Medicaid, except for dentures paid out of pocket. D's give you stuff you already have just like 15 minimum wage Cali, NY and IL have 15 and so does AZ, MO and FL

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

NH is Sununu plus 1 so a blue wave isn't happening as of yet, it's a stagnant election as long as the virus is still here and 💔 broken borders but Rs are favored in the H and D's are slightly favorite in the Senate, no wonder why Ds want Breyer to step down

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), July 21-22, 1005 adults

Approve 54 (+1)
Disapprove 40 (-2)

Approval by party:

D: 89 (+1)
I: 57 (+5) (always a small subsample so it's very bouncy)
R: 17 (nc)

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1417469873702285312

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1417469873702285312

It looks like Nevada is staying close to the NPV.

[pbrower2a]

Here's one possible explanation of how the polls could have been off from what they were in some of the potential swing states. Oddly, such states as Maine, Minnesota, and New Hampshire voted roughly as expected. The potential swing states with large minority populations) Colorado, New Mexico, and Virginia were not potential swing states) voted largely as expected despite large minority populations.

It's COVID-19. This report doesn't so much explain the situation in November 2020 as it does for July 2021; the 2020 election is not its focus although that is my focus in this discussion. One can get a general idea. If blacks and non-Cuban Hispanics of voting age dropped out of voting in 2020 due to death from COVID-19 to a disproportionate extent, then potential swing states with large minority populations upon which Democrats depended for making the difference between a Biden win and a Trump win (Hispanics in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, and Texas; blacks in Florida, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wisconsin) either tightened the statewide electoral races, swung the state to Trump (Florida and North Carolina), or made what might have been a very close (Texas) not so close.

Accusations of design for political advantage are premature. I am going to guess that the people dying from COVID-19 have become less disproportionately from minority populations because the people most likely to resist or refuse inoculation are now heavily white and on the reactionary side of the political spectrum.  Such may have effects upon subsequent midterm and Presidential elections, even as early as 2022, but this is not my current focus.     

   The Centers for Disease Control give us a partial report... because the story is not yet fully complete.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsrr/VSRR015-508.pdf

Provisional Life Expectancy Estimates for 2020 Elizabeth Arias, Ph.D., Betzaida Tejada-Vera, M.S., Farida Ahmad, M.P.H., and Kenneth D. Kochanek, M.A. U.S. Department of Health and Human Services • Centers for Disease Control and Prevention • National Center for Health Statistics • National Vital Statistics System NCHS reports can be downloaded from: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/index.htm. Introduction The National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) collects and disseminates the nation’s official vital statistics through the National Vital Statistics System (NVSS). NCHS uses provisional vital statistics data for conducting public health surveillance and final data for producing annual national natality and mortality statistics. NCHS publishes annual and decennial national life tables based on final vital statistics. To assess the effects on life expectancy of excess mortality observed during 2020, NCHS published provisional life expectancy estimates for the months January through June, 2020 in February 2021 (1). This report presents updated estimates of life expectancy based on provisional mortality data for the full year, January through December, 2020. Provisional data are early estimates based on death certificates received, processed, and coded, but not finalized, by NCHS. These estimates are considered provisional because death certificate information may later be revised, and additional death certificates may be received until approximately 6 months after the end of the year. This report presents life expectancy estimates calculated using abridged period life tables based on provisional death counts for 2020, by sex, for the total, Hispanic, non-Hispanic white, and non-Hispanic black populations. Estimates for the American Indian and Alaska Native (AIAN), Asian, and Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander (NHOPI) populations were not produced due to the impact of race and ethnicity misclassification on death certificates for these populations on the precision of life expectancy estimates (2). There are two types of life tables: the cohort (or generation) and the period (or current) life table. The cohort life table presents the mortality experience of a particular birth cohort from the moment of birth through consecutive ages in successive calendar years. The period life table does not represent the mortality experience of an actual birth cohort but rather presents what would happen to a hypothetical cohort if it experienced throughout its entire life the mortality conditions of a particular period. Period life expectancy estimates based on final data for 2019 by sex, Hispanic origin, and race are also provided in this report for purposes of comparison (see Technical Notes and reference 3 for description of methodology). Unlike the previous estimates based on 6 months of data, this full-year report presents contributions of causes of death to the changes in life expectancy using a life table partitioning technique (see Technical Notes). Keywords: life expectancy • Hispanic origin • race • cause of death • National Vital Statistics System Data and Methods Provisional life expectancy estimates were calculated using abridged period life tables based on provisional death counts for 2020 from death records received and processed by NCHS as of May 13, 2021; provisional numbers of births for the same period based on birth records received and processed by NCHS as of April 7, 2021; and, July 1, 2020, monthly postcensal population estimates based on the 2010 decennial census. Provisional mortality rates are typically computed using death data after a 3-month lag following date of death, as completeness and timeliness of provisional death data can vary by many factors, including cause of death, month of the year, and age of the decedent (4,5). Mortality data used in this report include over 99% of the deaths that occurred in 2020, but certain jurisdictions and age groups may be underrepresented for later months (5). Deaths requiring investigation, including infant deaths, deaths from external injuries, and drug overdose deaths may be underestimated (6,7). See Technical Notes for more information about the calculation of the abridged period life tables, 2019 life expectancy estimates by race and Hispanic origin, and life table partitioning by cause of death. Results Life expectancy in the United States The Table summarizes life expectancy by age, Hispanic origin, race, and sex. Life expectancy at birth represents the average number of years a group of infants would live if they were to experience throughout life the agespecific death rates prevailing during a specified period. In 2020, life expectancy at birth for the total U.S. population


(Read the source material if you want to see something more legible and connect to links).

Some conclusions that I draw (again, read the source material, as it ill serves cutting and pasting):

1. It may surprise many of us that Hispanic populations have overtaken non-Hispanic whites, let alone blacks, in life expectancy. That may reflect culture. Hispanic culture seems much more optimistic and life-affirming than the non-Hispanic mainstream.

(snarky material redacted due to a lack of relevance to this discussion)

 So what causes the higher life expectancy among Hispanic-Americans despite being poorer as a whole? First, not smoking as much. The second-lowest state in the percentage of smokers is California, which has a surprisingly-large Mormon population (that is part of it; Utah is 51st among the States and the federal district in consumption of tobacco products, and California is a distant 50th), and Hispanics account for much of the low smoking rate in California. Not smoking offsets the effects of air pollution in infamously-smoggy L.A. Texas, which has some very poor populations as in states to its east from Oklahoma in the west to North Carolina and Georgia in the east, is below average in tobacco use and the states to its east are all above average. (Missouri, Kentucky, and West Virginia fit this pattern, too of poverty and heavy smoking). Texas Hispanics, largely Mexican-Americans, are really-light smokers. That explains much. Another factor is that Hispanics have more tightly-knit communities. One is not alone, which explains how Mexican-Americans were much less-likely than others to die during a heat wave in Chicago in 2015. Someone was looking out for elderly Hispanics to make sure that they had fans and could keep their windows open. Blacks and poor whites often got neglected... and died for that neglect.

2. The strengths of Hispanic communities depend upon them being close to each other. With COVID-19 that may have been too close in housing, let alone many workplaces (as in food-processing places in which many of them work) or in the hospitality business and retailing in which they see everyone, infected or not. COVID-19 ravaged Hispanics as it did not ravage non-Hispanic whites or even blacks. Non-Cuban Hispanics vote heavily Democratic irrespective of economic status, and if they endured a disproportionate number of deaths from COVID-19, then that made have made the 2020 vote closer in Arizona and Nevada than many of us expected.

3. Declines in life expectancy by ethnicity and gender were as follows:

Hispanic male -3.7
non-Hispanic black male -3.3
Non-Hispanic black female -2.4
Hispanic female -2.0
non-Hispanic white male -1.3
non-Hispanic white female -1.1    

Political consequences are possible and even likely. 

In a country so polarized in political orientation on ethnicity as is the USA, divergent rates in death rates among people of voting age among different groups could shape the election.  Trump came close to being re-elected, but if this is why he came close, this is more cause for shame than for praise for any cleverness. If there is any design, then such might be of interest at the Hague Tribunal for crimes against humanity.   

I'm not accusing anyone of political manipulation. COVID-19 certainly disenfranchised black and Hispanic voters discriminatorily, whether the effect was design or accident, by literally killing them. It also disenfranchised white voters, but not by the same extent by literally killing them. Practically all deaths from COVID-19 were of people of voting age.  Draw whatever conclusions you wish.

4. People may have been dying of COVID-19 instead of something else, like cancer, strokes, HIV, cirrhosis, diabetes, or dementia. For people in weakened conditions, COVID-19 might have been the official killer on a death certificate -- but COVID-19 dwarfs those causes combined.

5, The most obvious limitation on this study is time.  We do not know what effects will arise in the future, but they cannot be good. Maybe the distribution of vulnerable people will change from 2020 to 2021. COVID-19 survivors often endure complications that themselves shorten life. Compromised organs and brains will cause trouble for decades among relatively-young survivors. Diabetes is a multi-organ plight. If COVID-19 does not kill outright it can still shorten life. 

6. Since then the people most resistant to getting the safe and effective vaccinations against COVID-19 are people most fitting Donald Trump's beloved "low-information voters". These are now the people dying, and these are from here on the people who will have their lives shortened by complications. Oxygen starvation causes big problems down the line, whether from partial drowning, "huffing" (sniffing glue or other solvents for a "high", strokes, and heart attacks.

I understand (I no longer have cable TV) that FoX News has changed its tune about inoculation. Too little and too late, but if it takes the likes of Tucker Carlson and Sean Hannity to get the point across to FoX devotees as someone like Rachel Maddow can't... well, so be it.

Being "low-information" on anything is not a good strategy for economic improvement or even survival.

COVID-19 may have helped Donald Trump come close to getting re-elected in 2020... but he still fell short. This may explain why the polls were so terribly inaccurate in most (if not all) potential swing states. COVID-19 may end up hurting the Republican Party more over time.  We will not see that until at least 2022, and it could devastate the GOP in 2024.     

[Matty]

Gallup has Biden at 50-45

[GeorgiaModerate]

AP/NORC, July 15-19, 1308 adults (1-month change)

Approve 59 (+4)
Disapprove 41 (-3)

Strongly approve 25 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 26 (-3)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Gallup has Biden at 50-45

.

Trump never been at 50% he was at 45, so stop criticizing Biden in a Covid Environment

[Real Texan Politics]

Gallup has Biden at 50-45

.

Trump never been at 50% he was at 45, so stop criticizing Biden in a Covid Environment

What part of what he said was criticizing Biden?

On the other hand, Biden is underwater on two Civiqs polls, 43-49 for job approval and 45-50 for favorability. With that said though, I'd take the job approval one with a slight grain of salt since it also has him underwater (41-44) with the 18-34 demographic, though it's likely that demographic doesn't approve of him much because he's not progressive enough on some policy?

That job approval poll also shows him BADLY underwater with independents, 32-57. Also take that with a slight grain of salt.

Link to job approval poll: https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_biden?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true

Link to favorability poll: https://civiqs.com/results/favorable_joe_biden?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yet the Rs is losing in every 304 Senate race Sununu is only up by one and PA, AZ, CO, the D's are leading by nine points and the poll from March had Evers and Nelson leading Johnson and R candidate for Gov 48/44 and Laxalt is at 35% in NV

At worst Rs take the H D's the Sen it's a 52/48 Election at best the Trifecta happens and DC and PR Statehood: Ds split in OH, FL Ryan for Sen, Renacci for Gov, Rubio Sen and Crist for Gov and we will AK, NC and MO Sen Jay Nixon races and Ras Smith and Fink win in IA for a D Lean Election

The Election is 500 not 180 days from now there is plenty of time to have a NPVI to be plus 5/8 pts D, the Generic ballot is tied in an internal, which means a Neutral Environment, Rs must take the NPVI lead and so far they haven't won it since 2016

[Matty]

AP/NORC, July 15-19, 1308 adults (1-month change)

Approve 59 (+4)
Disapprove 41 (-3)

Strongly approve 25 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 26 (-3)

AP/NORC has +18

Gallup has +5

Polling is just a total joke, sorry.

There is absolutely zero excuse for such a wide difference

[Mr.Phips]

Gallup has Biden at 50-45

.

Trump never been at 50% he was at 45, so stop criticizing Biden in a Covid Environment

What part of what he said was criticizing Biden?

On the other hand, Biden is underwater on two Civiqs polls, 43-49 for job approval and 45-50 for favorability. With that said though, I'd take the job approval one with a slight grain of salt since it also has him underwater (41-44) with the 18-34 demographic, though it's likely that demographic doesn't approve of him much because he's not progressive enough on some policy?

That job approval poll also shows him BADLY underwater with independents, 32-57. Also take that with a slight grain of salt.

Link to job approval poll: https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_biden?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true

Link to favorability poll: https://civiqs.com/results/favorable_joe_biden?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true

The civiqs state polls like ridiculous.  Negative approval in Delaware?

[GeorgiaModerate]

AP/NORC, July 15-19, 1308 adults (1-month change)

Approve 59 (+4)
Disapprove 41 (-3)

Strongly approve 25 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 26 (-3)

AP/NORC has +18

Gallup has +5

Polling is just a total joke, sorry.

There is absolutely zero excuse for such a wide difference

No, it's not at all unreasonable.  Apart from the different methodologies between pollsters (AP has generally been more Biden-friendly than Gallup), outliers happen even if you could achieve perfect methodology; they are an inescapable artifact of sampling. 

The Gallup result looks like an outlier compared to their previous Biden polls, while the AP one is in a typical range for them.  So I'm inclined to think (a) the Gallup result is more likely to be an outlier, and (b) the truth is somewhere in the middle.  Average the two and you get Biden+11.5, which is not far from the current averages. 

This is why it's a good idea to look at lots of polls from lots of different sources and put them all into an average.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

AP/NORC, July 15-19, 1308 adults (1-month change)

Approve 59 (+4)
Disapprove 41 (-3)

Strongly approve 25 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 26 (-3)

AP/NORC has +18

Gallup has +5

Polling is just a total joke, sorry.

There is absolutely zero excuse for such a wide difference

The RS HAVEN'T WON THE NPVI SINCE 2016 OR A NATL RACE AND LAST TIME THEY DID VERY GOOD IN THE SENATE WAS 2014 IN PICKING UP MT, WVA, SD, AR, LA AND MT, THEY WON THE S IN 2018 BUT LOST OH AND WVA  SHOULD BE STATES AND WE SUPPOSED TO BELIEVE THEY ARE SAFE BETS TO WIN IN 2022 AND BIDEN HAS A 50 NOT 40 PERCENT APPROVALS LIKE TRUMP HAD IN 2018 WHEN HE WAS IMPEACHED

The Rs really believe D's are gonna sit ideally bye and let them take over both Houses of Congress, this isn't 2o10/2014 when Obamacare was unpopular

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

How is it stop the Bleeding and Biden is already at 50% Approvals, an Approval that Trump never had

If Biden had 50/45% Approvals he would probably win OH like Obama did in 2008/12, at the Prez Election, Mahoning County isn't voting R again anytime soon.
The Senate 2022 map is a replica of the Prez map in case Rs didn't know that

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1417469873702285312

Titanium Lean D Nevada.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden 50/45% Approvals are exactly where he won the EC 304 map, as we all said it's not a 413 map as pbower2A says it is because Rubio and DeSantis are leading by 60/40 it's a 304 map

D's will probably lose the H and keep the Senate 52/48 and win AZ, MD, MA Govs and loose KS

We will lose KS, IA, NC and 3 new districts in FL and TX prior to Redistricting

I knew I was right all along, that's why NH is so close, it's statistically tied with Hassan and SUNUNU

Without VR reform, that's why Ds are fighting so hard but Tester, Manchin and Sinema and even Biden is against Filibuster reform

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Might not be too late to turn it around.

Lol it's a 304 map and always will with Covid Environment, because big Govt can't solve the Covid issue Biden is having trouble just like Trump in resolution of eradicating COVID

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden isn't at 59 percent Approvals

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rassy Tracking has been consistent 50/48% for Joe Biden

[Real Texan Politics]

Gallup has Biden at 50-45

.

Trump never been at 50% he was at 45, so stop criticizing Biden in a Covid Environment

What part of what he said was criticizing Biden?

On the other hand, Biden is underwater on two Civiqs polls, 43-49 for job approval and 45-50 for favorability. With that said though, I'd take the job approval one with a slight grain of salt since it also has him underwater (41-44) with the 18-34 demographic, though it's likely that demographic doesn't approve of him much because he's not progressive enough on some policy?

That job approval poll also shows him BADLY underwater with independents, 32-57. Also take that with a slight grain of salt.

Link to job approval poll: https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_biden?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true

Link to favorability poll: https://civiqs.com/results/favorable_joe_biden?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true

The civiqs state polls like ridiculous.  Negative approval in Delaware?

Yea I question that too. And how he's above water in Nevada but not in Virginia or New Mexico. Maybe not enough democrats voted in those polls?

Upper 40s/lower 50s seems accurate enough for Biden's national approval rating. 60% is too generous to him considering he's not in his honeymoon period anymore.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I know and the net positive rating in TX was based on a matchup with McCounghey whom hasn't even announced he is running for TX Gov and Biden approval in FL doesn't do D's any food since DeSantis and Rubio are up 60/40

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We also need another Stimulus check Unemployment claims ticked up to 500K new claims,1K checks won't hurt but Congress won't acr