Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[ProgressiveModerate]

Just saw a new (at least to me) DSCC ad during the NFL broadcast that showed Loeffler and Perdue as wealthy, out-of-touch elites and encouraged Republicans to not vote on Tuesday.  Haven't seen that suggestion before.

I'm glad they didn't use this attack too early on because if they did by now it would render useless. Obviously, the ad will likely change very few people's plans but a few people here and there can make all the difference

[wbrocks67]

Even given Perdue's quarantine, it really feels like he's either given up, or is purposely trying to lay low. Not sure how that is helpful given the Dems have actually had a really great GOTV this time around

[QAnonKelly]

Even given Perdue's quarantine, it really feels like he's either given up, or is purposely trying to lay low. Not sure how that is helpful given the Dems have actually had a really great GOTV this time around

I think he’s been laying low since he pulled out his Marvelous Mrs Maisel audition at the rally with Harris’s name.

[QAnonKelly]

I’m wondering at what point all this media and stuff reaches critical mass and starts having diminishing returns. I’m past the point of being excited for this race and being annoyed. I just got called twice within ten minutes.Ofc I’m going to vote but it’s just been relentless. I don’t watch live tv outside of work and I don’t listen to the radio at all but I still can’t escape the ads. They pop up on YT and Spotify too. I’ve been texted two or three times a day for a couple of weeks now. Idk if I ever want to see any of the four of their faces or hear their names ever again. I answer the phone when I know it’s them because I don’t want to keep getting called. I politely told the last volunteer who called me to not call me again.

[wbrocks67]

I’m wondering at what point all this media and stuff reaches critical mass and starts having diminishing returns. I’m past the point of being excited for this race and being annoyed. I just got called twice within ten minutes.Ofc I’m going to vote but it’s just been relentless. I don’t watch live tv outside of work and I don’t listen to the radio at all but I still can’t escape the ads. They pop up on YT and Spotify too. I’ve been texted two or three times a day for a couple of weeks now. Idk if I ever want to see any of the four of their faces or hear their names ever again. I answer the phone when I know it’s them because I don’t want to keep getting called. I politely told the last volunteer who called me to not call me again.

there's 2 days left. i think you'll be fine gurl

[GeorgiaModerate]

I agree - there's a level of exhaustion setting in.  I wish the runoff period was shorter.

[Catalunya]

I’m wondering at what point all this media and stuff reaches critical mass and starts having diminishing returns. I’m past the point of being excited for this race and being annoyed. I just got called twice within ten minutes.Ofc I’m going to vote but it’s just been relentless. I don’t watch live tv outside of work and I don’t listen to the radio at all but I still can’t escape the ads. They pop up on YT and Spotify too. I’ve been texted two or three times a day for a couple of weeks now. Idk if I ever want to see any of the four of their faces or hear their names ever again. I answer the phone when I know it’s them because I don’t want to keep getting called. I politely told the last volunteer who called me to not call me again.

Imagine if Republicans lose because of people being sick of getting told to vote constantly and at the end deciding they won’t vote out of annoyance.

[wbrocks67]

Ossoff has now taken over Perdue in the betting markets.

Ossoff 51.6%
Perdue 48.3%

Warnock 58.2%
Loeffler 41.7%

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1345834161572114432

If you want to follow one local reporter for Georgia politics, Bluestein is the one.

[Roll Roons]

"Anonymous sources" can say whatever, but that doesn't necessarily make it true. How many "anonymous sources" were saying that 2020 would be a bloodbath for House Republicans?

FWIW, I've changed my mind from earlier and believe the Democrats are very slightly favored in both races. Though it could easily go the other way.

[redjohn]

One thing's for sure: a leaked call of Trump (who is worshipped in cult-like fashion by a majority of Republicans in GA) threatening GA Republican officials seen as the swamp and saying his supporters aren't going to vote Tuesday is the last possible thing Republicans want going into election day. If I were involved in either of the GOP campaigns there, I'd feel terrified and awful by this being the main news story going into election day.

What they'd want to be front-and-center is some crazy-sounding policy from Democrats that would motivate Republicans to get out and vote. They're probably not getting that.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Basically, the crux of this election pivots on the answer to the question of why Democrats are outperforming the early vote compared to November. Are they outperforming because Republican voters are planning a disproportionate election day surge, or are they outperforming because a bunch of Republican voters aren't planning to show up at all?

Nobody seems to know the answer to this question.

[Matty]

Another interesting thought I saw on twitter today:

A dem win in GA on tuesday will actually increase the chances the repubs take the house in 2022, because a 51-50 senate increases chances of dems passing a law that could end up being unpopular in certain purple areas.

[QAnonKelly]

I agree - there's a level of exhaustion setting in.  I wish the runoff period was shorter.

If there’s runoffs for the GE, they should change them to instant imo.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Another interesting thought I saw on twitter today:

A dem win in GA on tuesday will actually increase the chances the repubs take the house in 2022, because a 51-50 senate increases chances of dems passing a law that could end up being unpopular in certain purple areas.

I think in general, it just increases the range of outcomes for 2022; it gives Democrats the chance to be extremely unpopular but also extremely popular.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Seems like a lot isn't going well for the GOP right now, and they may very well still win these races, but if they lose both and therefore the Senate, they likely would've been very avoidable losses.

[Pollster]

On another note, are you doing polling work in Georgia?  If so, any hints you can drop for us?

We are doing tracking until election day, and this has been among the most stable races I've ever polled.

[Inmate Trump]

Seems like a lot isn't going well for the GOP right now, and they may very well still win these races, but if they lose both and therefore the Senate, they likely would've been very avoidable losses.

I would love to think such a loss would humble them into backing down from challenging American democracy at its very core, but we all know it won't.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I'm sorry, but does Loeffler's campaign outfits irritate anyone else?

[Matty]

Let's review what a 51-50 senate can do, realistically

1) tax increases for the rich through reconciliation, and other budget stuff through reconciliation

2) judges and cabinet confirmations

3) infrastructure

4) criminal justice, MAYBE

What isn't happening

1) public option

2) filibuster repeal

3) gun control

4) green new deal, or any big enviro bill

5) immigration

6) 15 dollar minimum wage


Basically, whatever dems couldn't pass between 2010 and 2014 will not be done in 2021 and 2022 either.

[Xing]

Republicans are playing the expectations game. Nothing new.

[Matty]

Republicans are playing the expectations game. Nothing new.

that might make sense if we didn't have EV data.

you can't lie about EV data that is publically available.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

If Ossoff and Warnock both won, who would be the senior senator?

[Not Me, Us]

If Ossoff and Warnock both won, who would be the senior senator?

Coin flip?

[brucejoel99]

On another note, are you doing polling work in Georgia?  If so, any hints you can drop for us?

We are doing tracking until election day, and this has been among the most stable races I've ever polled.

So, still the very close race in which nobody has an advantage that your final extensive runoff poll showed?