Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[Tender Branson]

Did they just not update the number of mail ballots today or did literally no one send any in?

I would assume that the SoS is closed during weekends.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Did they just not update the number of mail ballots today or did literally no one send any in?

I would assume that the SoS is closed during weekends.

Oh wow, I'm losing track of time lol.

[Rookie Yinzer]

It has less to do with it being a weekend and more to do with yesterday being a holiday. All county offices were probably closed.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Did they just not update the number of mail ballots today or did literally no one send any in?

I would assume that the SoS is closed during weekends.

Oh wow, I'm losing track of time lol.

That's completely understandable considering that Georgia is still in 2020.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Welp, got no update for ya'll today then. Rs are currently in about a 213k hole that is likely to grow as more mail ballots arrive.

[Tender Branson]

Welp, got no update for ya'll today then. Rs are currently in about a 213k hole that is likely to grow as more mail ballots arrive.

That is only a virtual hole that might not even exist.

The EV only looks good for Ossock/Warnoff on the surface, but we don't know how the Indys vote, nor if the much older EVers skew White and therefore Republican, or how many people (mostly Rs) will vote on Tuesday ... everything's still possible.

[Canis]

Welp, got no update for ya'll today then. Rs are currently in about a 213k hole that is likely to grow as more mail ballots arrive.

That actually worries me quite a bit hopefully eday turnout is low 213k isn't that hard for the Republicans to make up...

[Rookie Yinzer]

Welp, got no update for ya'll today then. Rs are currently in about a 213k hole that is likely to grow as more mail ballots arrive.

That actually worries me quite a bit hopefully eday turnout is low 213k isn't that hard for the Republicans to make up...

That 213 number is not concrete.... no offense to anyone but it's just an estimate. This race is a tossup and Ossoff/Warnock are in the driver's seat. Not to mention thousands of absentee ballots are outstanding and there are reported absentee processing backlogs in Fulton, DeKalb, Henry, Chatham, Muscogee, and Bibb.....

[ProgressiveModerate]

Welp, got no update for ya'll today then. Rs are currently in about a 213k hole that is likely to grow as more mail ballots arrive.

That actually worries me quite a bit hopefully eday turnout is low 213k isn't that hard for the Republicans to make up...

That 213 number is not concrete.... no offense to anyone but it's just an estimate. This race is a tossup and Ossoff/Warnock are in the driver's seat. Not to mention thousands of absentee ballots are outstanding and there are reported absentee processing backlogs in Fulton, DeKalb, Henry, Chatham, Muscogee, and Bibb.....

Yep, very good point, all these numbers are just estimates using historical precedent.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Welp, got no update for ya'll today then. Rs are currently in about a 213k hole that is likely to grow as more mail ballots arrive.

That actually worries me quite a bit hopefully eday turnout is low 213k isn't that hard for the Republicans to make up...

First off, 213k is just an estimate based on the available data we have; in reality Democrat's current lead could currently be as big as 325k or as small as 100k, though it's pretty clear they currently lead. Secondly, the absentee ballots that are tabulated over these next few days will likely pad the Democrat's margin, by how much, I don't know, but that 213k number my model currently outputs will almost surely increase.

[SCNCmod]

Welp, got no update for ya'll today then. Rs are currently in about a 213k hole that is likely to grow as more mail ballots arrive.

What was the size of Ossoffs lead going into election day in the General?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Welp, got no update for ya'll today then. Rs are currently in about a 213k hole that is likely to grow as more mail ballots arrive.

What was the size of Ossoffs lead going into election day in the General?

Going into election day, Ossoff had a 127k vote lead, 2.007m to 1.880m. That was a 3.2% lead for Ossoff

Joe Biden on the other hand held a 230k vote lead, 2.100m to 1.870m. That was a 5.7% lead for Biden.

[Tender Branson]

Welp, got no update for ya'll today then. Rs are currently in about a 213k hole that is likely to grow as more mail ballots arrive.

What was the size of Ossoffs lead going into election day in the General?

Going into election day, Ossoff had a 127k vote lead, 2.007m to 1.880m. That was a 3.2% lead for Ossoff

Joe Biden on the other hand held a 230k vote lead, 2.100m to 1.870m. That was a 5.7% lead for Biden.

"This posting has been flagged as fake news. Official sources have not released a vote-lead for any of the candidates yet."

[ProgressiveModerate]

Welp, got no update for ya'll today then. Rs are currently in about a 213k hole that is likely to grow as more mail ballots arrive.

What was the size of Ossoffs lead going into election day in the General?

Going into election day, Ossoff had a 127k vote lead, 2.007m to 1.880m. That was a 3.2% lead for Ossoff

Joe Biden on the other hand held a 230k vote lead, 2.100m to 1.870m. That was a 5.7% lead for Biden.

"This posting has been flagged as fake news. Official sources have not released a vote-lead for any of the candidates yet."

https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/105369/web.264614/#/detail/10000

[Tender Branson]

Welp, got no update for ya'll today then. Rs are currently in about a 213k hole that is likely to grow as more mail ballots arrive.

What was the size of Ossoffs lead going into election day in the General?

Going into election day, Ossoff had a 127k vote lead, 2.007m to 1.880m. That was a 3.2% lead for Ossoff

Joe Biden on the other hand held a 230k vote lead, 2.100m to 1.870m. That was a 5.7% lead for Biden.

"This posting has been flagged as fake news. Official sources have not released a vote-lead for any of the candidates yet."

https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/105369/web.264614/#/detail/10000

You are comparing apples and oranges.

You are using the early vote from the GE and project it to the early vote so far for the runoffs, but you are ignoring that this is a completely different electorate.

The early vote so far for the runoffs might look somewhat good on paper for the 2 Dems, but it's only virtually looking good for the reasons I mentioned above.

[wbrocks67]

Has Deborah Jackson been out campaigning for Warnock? She did get nearly 7% in the original race..

[GeorgiaModerate]

Welp, got no update for ya'll today then. Rs are currently in about a 213k hole that is likely to grow as more mail ballots arrive.

What was the size of Ossoffs lead going into election day in the General?

Going into election day, Ossoff had a 127k vote lead, 2.007m to 1.880m. That was a 3.2% lead for Ossoff

Joe Biden on the other hand held a 230k vote lead, 2.100m to 1.870m. That was a 5.7% lead for Biden.

"This posting has been flagged as fake news. Official sources have not released a vote-lead for any of the candidates yet."

https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/105369/web.264614/#/detail/10000

You are comparing apples and oranges.

You are using the early vote from the GE and project it to the early vote so far for the runoffs, but you are ignoring that this is a completely different electorate.

The early vote so far for the runoffs might look somewhat good on paper for the 2 Dems, but it's only virtually looking good for the reasons I mentioned above.

Your snarky comment could quite reasonably be interpreted as saying there was no data on the early vote lead in the general election.  He just pointed out that there was in fact such data.  If you don't want such comments, use more precise language.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Welp, got no update for ya'll today then. Rs are currently in about a 213k hole that is likely to grow as more mail ballots arrive.

What was the size of Ossoffs lead going into election day in the General?

Going into election day, Ossoff had a 127k vote lead, 2.007m to 1.880m. That was a 3.2% lead for Ossoff

Joe Biden on the other hand held a 230k vote lead, 2.100m to 1.870m. That was a 5.7% lead for Biden.

"This posting has been flagged as fake news. Official sources have not released a vote-lead for any of the candidates yet."

https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/105369/web.264614/#/detail/10000

You are comparing apples and oranges.

You are using the early vote from the GE and project it to the early vote so far for the runoffs, but you are ignoring that this is a completely different electorate.

The early vote so far for the runoffs might look somewhat good on paper for the 2 Dems, but it's only virtually looking good for the reasons I mentioned above.

Again, that's why my model is only an estimate. Sorry I didn't clarify it in that post but if you look at most of my other daily update post, I include a note that says these numbers are estimated.

My model isn't perfect by any means, but an educated guess based upon the available data.

[Adam Griffin]

Has Deborah Jackson been out campaigning for Warnock? She did get nearly 7% in the original race..

Deborah Jackson got 7% because she was the first Democrat on the ballot in a 20-person race. She has no legitimate pull with the vast, vast, vast majority of voters who preferred her.

[wbrocks67]

Has Deborah Jackson been out campaigning for Warnock? She did get nearly 7% in the original race..

Deborah Jackson got 7% because she was the first Democrat on the ballot in a 20-person race. She has no legitimate pull with the vast, vast, vast majority of voters who preferred her.

Ah gotcha. That makes a lot of sense, I was always confused why she seemed to outperform so much.

Another question - I get Perdue has been quarantining the last day or two, but it legitimately doesn't seem like he's been out there doing much? Like Ossoff's "Where's David" campaign doesn't seem that disingenuous? Maybe I'm mistaken, but Perdue has seemingly been absent/doing the bare minimum for a lot of this campaign?

Ossoff/Warnock seem to be doing a ton of events every single day, and it appears at least that Loeffler has had a good amount of events/public things, while you never really hear about Perdue - is it b/c they're just not newsworthy or he's really not doing as much as the other 3?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

What's going to be really annoying is if one side wins both of these, they're going to act like they have a mandate to either fully persue Biden's agenda or entirely block Biden's agenda, even though basically half of the people who voted voted against their party.

A split verdict would be hilarious; it would be interesting to see how the parties react, and it would just be a crazy end to a crazy election cycle.

If the verdict is split, then Susan Collins winning would have been a godsend. Had she lost, Republicans would have needed to win both Georgia races, now they only need one.

[MATTROSE94]

What's going to be really annoying is if one side wins both of these, they're going to act like they have a mandate to either fully persue Biden's agenda or entirely block Biden's agenda, even though basically half of the people who voted voted against their party.

A split verdict would be hilarious; it would be interesting to see how the parties react, and it would just be a crazy end to a crazy election cycle.

If the verdict is split, then Susan Collins winning would have been a godsend. Had she lost, Republicans would have needed to win both Georgia races, now they only need one.

Also the Democrats nominating Cal Cunningham over Jeff Jackson or Anthony Fox in North Carolina would have amounted to be a godsend for the Republicans as well.

[Roll Roons]

What's going to be really annoying is if one side wins both of these, they're going to act like they have a mandate to either fully persue Biden's agenda or entirely block Biden's agenda, even though basically half of the people who voted voted against their party.

A split verdict would be hilarious; it would be interesting to see how the parties react, and it would just be a crazy end to a crazy election cycle.

If the verdict is split, then Susan Collins winning would have been a godsend. Had she lost, Republicans would have needed to win both Georgia races, now they only need one.

Also the Democrats nominating Cal Cunningham over Jeff Jackson or Anthony Fox in North Carolina would have amounted to be a godsend for the Republicans as well.

Yes. If anything, North Carolina was a much more winnable race for Democrats than Maine.

Also Bill Nelson failing to adequately reach out to Hispanic voters.

[ProgressiveModerate]

What's going to be really annoying is if one side wins both of these, they're going to act like they have a mandate to either fully persue Biden's agenda or entirely block Biden's agenda, even though basically half of the people who voted voted against their party.

A split verdict would be hilarious; it would be interesting to see how the parties react, and it would just be a crazy end to a crazy election cycle.

If the verdict is split, then Susan Collins winning would have been a godsend. Had she lost, Republicans would have needed to win both Georgia races, now they only need one.

Also the Democrats nominating Cal Cunningham over Jeff Jackson or Anthony Fox in North Carolina would have amounted to be a godsend for the Republicans as well.

Yes. If anything, this was a much more winnable race for Democrats than Maine.

Also Bill Nelson failing to adequately reach out to Hispanic voters.

If Republicans lose the Senate, it'll be because of NH-Sen 2016, and MT and WV Sen 2018, not to mention Martha McSally. Both sides really had their fair share of missed opportunities and getting lucky and it all kind of cancels out.

[ProgressiveModerate]

What's going to be really annoying is if one side wins both of these, they're going to act like they have a mandate to either fully persue Biden's agenda or entirely block Biden's agenda, even though basically half of the people who voted voted against their party.

A split verdict would be hilarious; it would be interesting to see how the parties react, and it would just be a crazy end to a crazy election cycle.

If the verdict is split, then Susan Collins winning would have been a godsend. Had she lost, Republicans would have needed to win both Georgia races, now they only need one.

Also the Democrats nominating Cal Cunningham over Jeff Jackson or Anthony Fox in North Carolina would have amounted to be a godsend for the Republicans as well.

Yes. If anything, this was a much more winnable race for Democrats than Maine.

Also Bill Nelson failing to adequately reach out to Hispanic voters.

If Republicans lose the Senate, it'll be because of NH-Sen 2016, and MT and WV Sen 2018, not to mention Martha McSally. Both sides really had their fair share of missed opportunities and getting lucky and it all kind of cancels out.

Here were all the close calls that allowed both parties to get where they are right now.