Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[MillennialModerate]

Bagel and his hackish Predictions on GA😆😆😆, even Trafalgar has D's winning GA.

Due to the 2K stimulus checks, so many wrong predictions from Users like Bagel on the forum

You’ve had plenty of wrong predictions as well.

I’ve been right as much if not more than I’ve been wrong I’ve just been loud and repetitive when wrong.

[Brittain33]

This has to be fake news, right? This is his one chance to be Majority Leader, he can't be that stupid to just let it slip. On the other hand, money doesn't matter anymore it seems, if this is true.
"Now, after the party performed poorly in down-ballot races, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., is no longer meeting with donors, a source familiar with the matter told NBC News.

Schumer is "pessimistic" about Warnock and Ossoff's chances in Georgia next week and doesn't want to ruin donor relationships, the source adds."
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/ossoff-warnock-warn-about-running-low-funds-seek-last-minute-n1252413

I think McConnell’s thinking about how to hobble an economic recovery under Biden.

[Pollster]

This has to be fake news, right? This is his one chance to be Majority Leader, he can't be that stupid to just let it slip. On the other hand, money doesn't matter anymore it seems, if this is true.
"Now, after the party performed poorly in down-ballot races, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., is no longer meeting with donors, a source familiar with the matter told NBC News.

Schumer is "pessimistic" about Warnock and Ossoff's chances in Georgia next week and doesn't want to ruin donor relationships, the source adds."
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/ossoff-warnock-warn-about-running-low-funds-seek-last-minute-n1252413

This reads a lot like the October 2017 “Northam is blowing it” articles.

[MillennialModerate]

What incentive is there for Trump to hurt Mitch McConnell and the Republican Party? Like seriously what incentive or advantage? He’s actively campaigning for Perdue and Loeffler yet wants to hurt Mitch and the senate GOP?
I’m trying to put the puzzle together but I don’t get it

My attempt at a guess:
1) He doesn't want to be the only one to lose Georgia & look like the only failure on the GA campaign trail (misery loves company).
2) But he will never pass up an opportunity to get in front of a rally of Trump fans.

Not sure why else he's supporting the $2000, unless he forgetting that Biden supporters will also get the money (since usually he is intent on punishing those who did not vote for him).  Although, this could indicate a calculation to look better to the public... either b/c he intends to run in 2024, or b/c it will benefit his plans for a media network or show after the election.

If he REALLY wanted be popular and gain political capital he would tweet:

“Mitch has worked with me on some important stuff but if he’s too greedy to put an Up or Down vote on $2000 for hard working Americans then he shouldn’t be majority leader anymore! Trump supporters in Georgia: “Don’t vote on Tuesday unless Mitch passes the $2000 checks by Monday!”

His popularity would sky rocket. I’ve already seen multiple people on social media who are Trumpers and Republicans through and through ranting and raving about how awful McConell is

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Georgians Are Starving, Their Millionaire Senators Refuse To Force A Vote

Loeffler and Perdue are in a position to immediately end this battle right now, if they chose to actually use their power. Senator Mitch McConnell may want to own the libs and economically punish his own destitute state by blocking the $2,000 checks, but an even bigger priority for him is holding onto his job as majority leader — but he can only do that if the Georgia incumbents win reelection.

That means if Loeffler and Perdue publicly demanded passage of the $2,000 checks legislation — and if they explicitly aimed their criticism at McConnell for holding things up — it would almost certainly happen.

Up until the last few days, Loeffler and Perdue have not made unequivocal statements fully supporting the bill — in fact, Perdue has previously opposed direct aid. Only today did Loeffler meekly say she would vote for $2,000 checks, and Perdue tweeted a similarly muted statement of support.

[Tender Branson]

Yesterday saw record early voting turnout for a single day so far (180.000 more votes).

Not sure if this includes returned postal ballots or not though ... probably not.

[SnowLabrador]

This has to be fake news, right? This is his one chance to be Majority Leader, he can't be that stupid to just let it slip. On the other hand, money doesn't matter anymore it seems, if this is true.
"Now, after the party performed poorly in down-ballot races, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., is no longer meeting with donors, a source familiar with the matter told NBC News.

Schumer is "pessimistic" about Warnock and Ossoff's chances in Georgia next week and doesn't want to ruin donor relationships, the source adds."
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/ossoff-warnock-warn-about-running-low-funds-seek-last-minute-n1252413

Eh, Schumer's pretty stupid. I hope this is fake news, though, because COVID will literally never end in the US unless we win both runoffs.

[Tender Branson]

Brand new JMC poll to be released in the next hours or so ...

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

This has to be fake news, right? This is his one chance to be Majority Leader, he can't be that stupid to just let it slip. On the other hand, money doesn't matter anymore it seems, if this is true.
"Now, after the party performed poorly in down-ballot races, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., is no longer meeting with donors, a source familiar with the matter told NBC News.

Schumer is "pessimistic" about Warnock and Ossoff's chances in Georgia next week and doesn't want to ruin donor relationships, the source adds."
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/ossoff-warnock-warn-about-running-low-funds-seek-last-minute-n1252413

Eh, Schumer's pretty stupid. I hope this is fake news, though, because COVID will literally never end in the US unless we win both runoffs.

Ah yes, Schumer is so stupid that both times he headed the DSCC *checks notes* Senate Democrats won landslide victories and picked up tons of seats, first flipping the Senate in a year where most believed doing so was impossible even in a Democratic tidal wave and then gaining a filibuster-proof majority the following cycle.  Clearly a man who has no idea what he is doing  

Then again, Schumer is still that's why by most accounts *checks notes again* the DSCC has generally done a far better job of candidate recruitment than the DCCC or either Republican congressional campaign.  

P.S: If both Georgia Senate seats flip, are you guys gonna be praising Schumer as a strategic genius?

[KaiserDave]

What has Schumer done wrong exactly?

Do Ossoff and Warnock need more money? No. Does money buy votes? No. Is money the end all be all? No. Is a money a problem when each candidate has raised more money than any campaign in history? No.

[Horus]

With the number of mailers and ads, more money is the last thing these races need. This is a battle of turnout and enthusiasm, and Dems are winning it so far.

[GeorgiaModerate]

We've gotten zero political mailers the last two days, for the first time in ages.  Maybe they've cross-referenced with the absentee file and realized that everyone in this household has already voted.

[wbrocks67]

VBM accepted is now officially less white than the GE. In person continues to inch up, but we're getting closer and closer and it's still significantly less white (32 to 25)

VBM + IN PERSON EARLY
Nov GE: 4.03M (56.5% white, 27.7% black) ---> +28.8 white
12/15: 483K (53.9% white, 33.4% black) ---> +20.5 white
12/16: 715K (54.5% white, 33.1% black) ---> +21.4 white
12/17: 914K (55.0% white, 32.5% black) —> +22.5 white
12/18: 1.12M (55.4% white, 32.0% black) —> +23.4 white
12/19: 1.34M (55.6% white, 31.6% black) —> +24.0 white
12/21: 1.47M (54.4% white, 32.4% black) —> +22.0 white
12/22: 1.68M (54.8% white, 31.9% black) —> +22.9 white
12/23: 1.88M (55.0% white, 31.6% black) —> +23.4 white
12/24: 2.06M (55.5% white, 31.5% black) —> +24.0 white
12/25: 2.07M (55.5% white, 31.6% black) —> +23.9 white
12/27: 2.10M (55.4% white, 31.5% black) —> +23.9 white
12/28: 2.13M (55.2% white, 31.6% black) —> +23.6 white
12/29: 2.34M (55.2% white, 31.5% black) —> +23.7 white
12/30: 2.60M (55.4% white, 31.3% black) —> +24.1 white

VBM requests
Nov GE: 1.78M (51.2% white, 31.4% black) ---> +19.8 white
12/10: 1.17M (53.6% white, 31.2% black) ---> +22.4 white
12/13: 1.25M (53.0% white, 31.6% black) ---> +21.4 white
12/17: 1.28M (52.2% white, 32.0% black) —> +20.2 white
12/18: 1.30M (52.0% white, 32.2% black) —> +19.8 white
12/19: 1.31M (51.8% white, 32.4% black) —> +19.4 white
12/21: 1.32M (51.7% white, 32.4% black) —> +19.3 white
12/22: 1.33M (51.6% white, 32.5% black) —> +19.1 white
12/23: 1.34M (51.5% white, 32.5% black) —> +19.0 white
12/24: 1.35M (51.6% white, 32.7% black) —> +18.9 white
12/25: 1.35M (51.6% white, 32.7% black) —> +18.9 white
12/27: 1.35M (51.6% white, 32.7% black) —> +18.9 white
12/28: 1.35M (51.6% white, 32.7% black) —> +18.9 white
12/29: 1.36M (51.5% white, 32.8% black) —> +18.7 white
12/30: 1.37M (51.4% white, 32.8% black) —> +18.6 white

VBM accepted
Nov GE: 1.32M (53.0% white, 30.3% black) ---> +22.7 white
12/16: 379K (56.9% white, 30.7% black) ---> +26.2 white
12/17: 427K (56.5% white, 31.0% black) —> +25.5 white
12/18: 481K (56.3% white, 30.9% black) —> +25.4 white
12/19: 525K (56.1% white, 30.9% black) —> +25.2 white
12/21: 570K (55.5% white, 31.3% black) —> +24.2 white
12/22: 621K (55.4% white, 31.2% black) —> +24.2 white
12/23: 679K (54.9% white, 31.4% black) —> +23.5 white
12/24: 722K (54.9% white, 31.6% black) —> +23.3 white
12/25: 725K (54.9% white, 31.6% black) —> +23.3 white
12/27: 735K (54.8% white, 31.6% black) —> +23.2 white
12/28: 748K (54.7% white, 31.6% black) —> +23.1 white
12/29: 802K (54.5% white, 31.6% black) —> +22.9 white
12/30: 856K (54.2% white, 31.8% black) —> +22.4 white

IN PERSON EARLY votes
Nov GE: 2.69M (58.2% white, 26.4% black) ---> +31.8 white
12/16: 336K (51.9% white, 35.8% black) ---> +16.1 white
12/17: 487K (53.7% white, 33.9% black) —> +19.8 white
12/18: 642K (54.7% white, 32.8% black) —> +21.9 white
12/19: 812K (55.3% white, 32.0% black) —> +23.3 white
12/21: 902K (53.8% white, 33.1% black) —> +20.7 white
12/22: 1.06M (54.4% white, 32.4% black) —> +22.0 white
12/23: 1.21M (55.0% white, 31.7% black) —-> +23.3 white
12/24: 1.34M (55.9% white, 31.5% black) —> +24.4 white
12/25: 1.35M (55.8% white, 31.5% black) —> +24.3 white
12/27: 1.36M (55.7% white, 31.5% black) —> +24.2 white
12/28: 1.38M (55.5% white, 31.6% black) —> +23.9 white
12/29: 1.54M (55.6% white, 31.4% black) —> +24.2 white
12/30: 1.71M (56.0% white, 31.0% black) —> +25.0 white

[Tender Branson]

JMC poll:

Warnock +9
Ossoff +8

https://winwithjmc.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Georgia-Senate-Runoff-Executive-Summary.pdf

https://politicalwire.com/2020/12/30/democrats-hold-leads-in-georgia-runoffs/

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

JMC poll:

Warnock +9
Ossoff +8

https://winwithjmc.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Georgia-Senate-Runoff-Executive-Summary.pdf

https://politicalwire.com/2020/12/30/democrats-hold-leads-in-georgia-runoffs/

garbage poll,but I'll still take it.

[Tender Branson]

JMC poll:

Warnock +9
Ossoff +8

https://winwithjmc.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Georgia-Senate-Runoff-Executive-Summary.pdf

https://politicalwire.com/2020/12/30/democrats-hold-leads-in-georgia-runoffs/

garbage poll,but I'll still take it.

This poll assumes that most of the vote is already banked and only a handful people will additionally vote on Tuesday.

If a lot of Rs vote on Tuesday instead, this poll will be flawed.

[ProgressiveModerate]

JMC poll:

Warnock +9
Ossoff +8

https://winwithjmc.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Georgia-Senate-Runoff-Executive-Summary.pdf

https://politicalwire.com/2020/12/30/democrats-hold-leads-in-georgia-runoffs/

garbage poll,but I'll still take it.

This poll assumes that most of the vote is already banked and only a handful people will additionally vote on Tuesday.

If a lot of Rs vote on Tuesday instead, this poll will be flawed.

One consistent theme though is that the GOP seems to be at least 300k votes in debt right now, potentially even 400k or 500k. I expect Election Day to be huge, but even if it’s huge, they need those votes to break pretty heavily in their favor, which is doable, but won’t be easy nonetheless

[GeorgiaModerate]

The thing that surprises me most in the JMC poll:

Plan to/already early voted in person 75%
Plan to/already early voted by mail 16%
Plan to vote on Election Day 7%
Unsure whether you’ll vote 1%
Do not plan to vote 1%

If this is remotely true, the Republicans are cooked.  But it makes me think the poll is running into the same partisan non-response issue that appears to have occurred in many general election polls.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

If I were more Republican or even more conservative on areas other than fiscal issues, I would probably still vote Perdue. But fiscal conservatism was my primary reason for voting for Perdue in the first place. Take this out of the equation, and I have more reasons to vote for Ossoff than Perdue.

Forsythvoter, I'm curious how you voted downballot in the November general. (Mostly because I want to know if going Perdue->Ossoff is a thing that happens but also because I'm curious who you supported in Warnock/Collins/Loeffler and Bourdeaux/McCormick.)

[tagimaucia]

Any decent quality polls of this race still forthcoming?

I have to the think that the AJC/UGA poll that was supposedly in the field a few weeks ago is just not happening and was a incorrect rumor?

Atlas Intel said they were doing a poll in a random twitter reply like ten days ago.

[roxas11]

The thing that surprises me most in the JMC poll:

Plan to/already early voted in person 75%
Plan to/already early voted by mail 16%
Plan to vote on Election Day 7%
Unsure whether you’ll vote 1%
Do not plan to vote 1%

If this is remotely true, the Republicans are cooked.  But it makes me think the poll is running into the same partisan non-response issue that appears to have occurred in many general election polls.

Its easy to get people to turnout when Trump or Obama are on the ballot but the second they are no longer on the ballot their voters simply do not show up.

the Dems knew that would be the case and they wisely told the voters to vote early and by mail
its way more convenient and because of that they can still get people who actually did now show up to vote during the presidential race. I actully think that is big reason why we are seeing an increase in black turnout in GA compared to the presidential election


The GOP on the other hand foolishly stuck with their vote on election day strategy
its dumb move because many voters simply may not have iny intrest of actually getting out to vote if trump himself is not on the ballot this time.

this is big reason why I believe that the GOP should have focused more on getting their voters to come out to vote early or by mail because once again it is way more convenient than coming out to vote on election day  

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

2K bucks on top of the 600 checks we are getting is great for people whom are in debt that's why Ds are gonna win GA, it's too good for even R voters to pass up, that's why Ossoff and Warnock are gonna win, and Biden needs his Cabinet and Judges

[forsythvoter]

If I were more Republican or even more conservative on areas other than fiscal issues, I would probably still vote Perdue. But fiscal conservatism was my primary reason for voting for Perdue in the first place. Take this out of the equation, and I have more reasons to vote for Ossoff than Perdue.

Forsythvoter, I'm curious how you voted downballot in the November general. (Mostly because I want to know if going Perdue->Ossoff is a thing that happens but also because I'm curious who you supported in Warnock/Collins/Loeffler and Bourdeaux/McCormick.)

I actually voted Biden, Ossoff, Loeffler, and McCormick in November. I preferred Loeffler over Collins because I thought she would be more fiscally conservative, and was hoping she would pivot after the general to a more moderate stance (obviously didn't happen). I voted Ossoff not knowing or thinking that Senate control would hinge on GA so I voted on non-fiscal priorities. And I voted McCormick because AJC (Atlanta Journal Constitution) published an interview with him and Bordeaux and he seemed closer to my views fiscally while Bordeaux seemed much more liberal than I was comfortable with.  

My wife is considering Ossoff and voted Perdue in the general since we have similar views and discuss our votes together before every election, but I would assume it's a pretty rare thing, as I've seen no indication of this shift among my other family or friends. If it does happen, it's probably heavily concentrated among Biden - Perdue or Biden - Hazel (L) voters. I do know a few Perdue voters who are sitting out the runoffs.

[gf20202]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/30/politics/biden-harris-campaign-georgia/index.html

Harris is going there on Sunday and Biden Monday. Would Biden risk political capital unless this was at least leaning Dem?

[Skill and Chance]

I will be surprised if either Republican wins at this point.