Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[GeorgiaModerate]

This is from the general election, but seems relevant because there will no doubt be voter fraud claims from the Republicans if they lose:

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1344062443727839234

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I like how French Republican thinks that D's are gonna do bad in 2021(2022 and all the competetive seats are in states that Biden won including VA, NJ Gov and GA Runoffs. Even Trafalgar has D's winning now in GA

[ProgressiveModerate]

My model is now Democrat + 9.3; down from 9.7 yesterday but up from 8.7 2 days ago. The gap between the estimated D total vs R total is getting real close to 300k votes.



If I had to guess, +9.3 is likely a slight undercount, but that's speculation on my part. It'll be interesting to see where the early vote numbers head from here

[roxas11]

I said it before and I will say it again
Trump is really going out his way to hurt Mitch McConnell lol

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1343998076084748288

At this point its clear that he really does not want this man to be the Senate majority leader any longer

What incentive is there for Trump to hurt Mitch McConnell and the Republican Party? Like seriously what incentive or advantage? He’s actively campaigning for Perdue and Loeffler yet wants to hurt Mitch and the senate GOP?
I’m trying to put the puzzle together but I don’t get it

This is what Trump has tweeted about Mitch McConnell and the senate GOP since the election   








plus he is clearly angry at Mitch for trying to override his veto

[Cyrusman]

I said it before and I will say it again
Trump is really going out his way to hurt Mitch McConnell lol

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1343998076084748288

At this point its clear that he really does not want this man to be the Senate majority leader any longer

What incentive is there for Trump to hurt Mitch McConnell and the Republican Party? Like seriously what incentive or advantage? He’s actively campaigning for Perdue and Loeffler yet wants to hurt Mitch and the senate GOP?
I’m trying to put the puzzle together but I don’t get it

This is what Trump has tweeted about Mitch McConnell and the senate GOP since the election   








plus he is clearly angry at Mitch for trying to override his veto

But this doesn’t help Perdue and Loeffler and he knows that yet he is campaigning for them
That’s what I don’t get?!

[roxas11]

I said it before and I will say it again
Trump is really going out his way to hurt Mitch McConnell lol

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1343998076084748288

At this point its clear that he really does not want this man to be the Senate majority leader any longer

What incentive is there for Trump to hurt Mitch McConnell and the Republican Party? Like seriously what incentive or advantage? He’s actively campaigning for Perdue and Loeffler yet wants to hurt Mitch and the senate GOP?
I’m trying to put the puzzle together but I don’t get it

This is what Trump has tweeted about Mitch McConnell and the senate GOP since the election  








plus he is clearly angry at Mitch for trying to override his veto

But this doesn’t help Perdue and Loeffler and he knows that yet he is campaigning for them
That’s what I don’t get?!

The man is narcissist and the only election he really cared about was his own
Trump has spent more time on a golf course than has atcually trying to get Perdue and Loeffler elected

He has only made a few appearances in GA and rarely even talks about them on his twitter page.
I just think he has very little interest in the GA election after he lost his election and it shows. now his main focus seems to be about getting revenge on Mitch McConnell and he is not worried at all about his actions hurting the GOP in GA

Its blatantly obvious that Trump really does not care about what the state of the GOP is after he leaves in January

[xavier110]

I said it before and I will say it again
Trump is really going out his way to hurt Mitch McConnell lol

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1343998076084748288

At this point its clear that he really does not want this man to be the Senate majority leader any longer

What incentive is there for Trump to hurt Mitch McConnell and the Republican Party? Like seriously what incentive or advantage? He’s actively campaigning for Perdue and Loeffler yet wants to hurt Mitch and the senate GOP?
I’m trying to put the puzzle together but I don’t get it

He is an autocrat/authoritarian. He wants to be a cult leader. He is a cult leader. The only way now he can truly consolidate power is to eliminate the other top GOP leaders who command an iron grip over other Republicans. McConnell is basically the most powerful GOP leader in Washington so naturally Trump wants to erode his ability to control Republicans. It's very simple. Everything must be about him - why are other Republicans concerned about Mitch effing McConnell instead of me is how he thinks.

[Non Swing Voter]

My model is now Democrat + 9.3; down from 9.7 yesterday but up from 8.7 2 days ago. The gap between the estimated D total vs R total is getting real close to 300k votes.



If I had to guess, +9.3 is likely a slight undercount, but that's speculation on my part. It'll be interesting to see where the early vote numbers head from here

An election like this seems 100% about base turnout.  Dems should be very thankful that this is one of the few states, thank to Stacey Abrams, where they probably have the turnout machine advantage.  If they win both these seats Stacey Abrams should takeover as DNC chair (she probably should anyways).

[Non Swing Voter]

I think Republicans might be too complacent in terms of relying on Election Day turnout.  Yeah they turned out massively on Election Day in November, but that was a national, Presidential election that was 100% everyone's focus.  Not sure they can replicate that in a runoff election.  Kind of feels like this is an election where banking votes early really really matters.

[forsythvoter]

If Perdue backs the $2k checks, I'm voting for Ossoff. I don't see the point of voting R on the basis of fiscal conservatism if they're not going to even try to be fiscally prudent.

There it is:

https://twitter.com/Perduesenate/status/1343943989804867585

Sad it had to come to this, but I guess Ossoff it is. I've frankly lost all respect for Perdue at this point. It's pretty clear he'll do whatever Trump wants regardless of ideology, which is just not what I'm looking for in a Senator.

If Dems win, I also hope they don't interpret the votes of voters like me as a full-sale approval of their fiscal policy. I don't think Dems should jumping so quickly on this more free money for everyone train either. I hope the party remembers this if they want my vote in 2022.

I think you're doing a big error here, this election is not about theoricial principles and conservatism ideology. Obviously giving a big check to everyone, even to the people whose incomes have not been affected by the lockdown measures is stupid, a such measure is poorly targeted and wasteful, but it's also very popular, including in GA, and Perdue has no other choice than backing it (especially with Trump throwing his support behind it). Now you have to think about the post Trump era, about the longer term, and here the difference between a Schumer led Senate and a GOP led one will be huge, if Biden has a dem majority in the Senate you can expect many more wasteful spendings and the public debt would probably jump quickly to +$30 billions (Krugman is already calling for some New Great society programs), if republicans hold the Senate, and even if they are imperfect, they would at least be able to refrain some of these insane spendings from happening

I respect your viewpoint, but I always try to vote on principles and try to leave party politics out of it. Tripling the size of this stimulus bill would cost a $300 billion. If Reps can't stop something of this size from passing because they can't (in this case, I don't even think they're trying) convince American voters it's not sound policy, I'm not convinced they will stand up to principle after the election because there's always the next election to worry about. And if the Ds do what you describe, Reps will certainly have my vote in 2022.

If I were more Republican or even more conservative on areas other than fiscal issues, I would probably still vote Perdue. But fiscal conservatism was my primary reason for voting for Perdue in the first place. Take this out of the equation, and I have more reasons to vote for Ossoff than Perdue.

[SCNCmod]

Yeah, I do think that the age gap if something to be concerned about as a Democrat, especially in a place like GA where younger people are significantly more likely to vote D than older people.

As for your point about the strong black numbers being a mirage, while that could be true and I get what you're saying, It does seem like black voters as an isolated group have strong turnout, even if other minority groups do not. There is a larger gap between majority black counties in the "black belt" and surrounding majority white counties in terms of % that have voted than there was in the GE. This could mean either that black voters really are having disproportionate turnout in these runoffs relative to white voters, or that the election day vote will be more white than it was in November (or something in between ofc). We saw that in the GE a few of these counties e-day vote was to the left of how the county overall, so I suspect that may flip.

However, even if you take the racial lens out of it, and calculate things based upon how they broke in the GE, it's really hard to find a way to get Democrats current vote lead under 8%. The real concern for me is that the e-day vote has potential to be even more lopsided towards the GOP as it was in the GE because more Democratic voters are voting early.

I'll second your point about the white vote, at least thus far, the white vote has skews from counties where the white vote likely voted to the left of the white vote statewide

(as you stated above) I do agree that black turnout is higher, but other minority groups have lower turnout in the runoff currently, which just means the white/black net advantage for Dems may be a little less than it seems.  But, there are also a few seemingly strong points for Republicans, that may be less of an advantage than they seem also.  So, I think your analysis that Dems are currently sitting on at least an 8% lead going into Election Day seems accurate.

---

Regarding the under 34-year-old vote: Do you think the drop from 21% (general election) to 15% (runoff) is due largely to Trump-under-34-year-olds not participating... or do you think the under 34 dropoff is across the board?

...because I can't imagine that with $100 Million+ & access to all of these voters via social media... Ossoff hasn't been able to create enough of a buzz to get those who voted in the General for Biden... to turn out to vote in the runoff (unless under-34's tend to vote on election day).  Are there any stats that indicate when under 34 year old tend to vote (early vs election day)?

[SCNCmod]

Isn't it quite possible that the 55+ over is up compared to GE b/c there's also more older black voters voting right now? Could be attributed to the higher black %?

I see what people are saying about the White % being about the same and blacks being up, but wouldn't Dems want the black % to be up anyway, since they voted 9/10 for Biden? I feel like they'd be okay if Whites stayed the same % but Blacks went up quite a bit, since it's more likely assured votes for Biden.

Not to mention, we're at 2.1M compared to 4M, and we don't know what slice of the white vote this is, but it does appear it's coming from more leftward areas than rightward (i.e. more college+ whites)

both are good point- and its true that black voters support dems by a higher % than other minorities like Latino voters, which tended to be more split in November.

Any thoughts regarding why under 34 is so much lower? (do they vote more on election day, is the drop off mainly Repubs under 34, are they just hard to get to turn out, etc)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Bagel and his hackish Predictions on GA😆😆😆, even Trafalgar has D's winning GA.

Due to the 2K stimulus checks, so many wrong predictions from Users like Bagel on the forum

[SCNCmod]

At this point I'm conviced that Trump is now actively trying hurt Mitch McConnell
there is simply no other way to explain why he is doing things that he knows could clearly hurt his party chances in the upcoming election



He just tweeted this at the same time Bernie Sanders said he will filibuster an override of a veto on the defense bill unless the Senate holds a vote on providing $2,000 direct payments to Americans.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1343916418316824583

Trump is now going out of his way to tell his voters that the 600 dollars check is simply not enough and If Sanders can sideline Perdue and Loeffler even for a couple of days and especially if he can tie them to Republican's opposition to more relief aid  he could conceivably tip the election enough to give Chuck Schumer control of the Senate next week.

If the Dems ends up winning in GA Trumps actions of the past few days will be a big reason for why it happened

Yeah he’s totally just trying to screw McConnell over on his way out the door imo.

I've been wondering if Trump (maybe even sort of subconsciously) doesn't want to be the only Republican to not win Georgia... If both Senators lose, his loss doesn't look quite as bad.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Isn't it quite possible that the 55+ over is up compared to GE b/c there's also more older black voters voting right now? Could be attributed to the higher black %?

I see what people are saying about the White % being about the same and blacks being up, but wouldn't Dems want the black % to be up anyway, since they voted 9/10 for Biden? I feel like they'd be okay if Whites stayed the same % but Blacks went up quite a bit, since it's more likely assured votes for Biden.

Not to mention, we're at 2.1M compared to 4M, and we don't know what slice of the white vote this is, but it does appear it's coming from more leftward areas than rightward (i.e. more college+ whites)

both are good point- and its true that black voters support dems by a higher % than other minorities like Latino voters, which tended to be more split in November.

Any thoughts regarding why under 34 is so much lower? (do they vote more on election day, is the drop off mainly Repubs under 34, are they just hard to get to turn out, etc)

To me, it seems like a mixed bag.

Many of the Atlanta counties, notably Clay, DeKalb, and Fulton, have a much higher share of younger voters than the statewide average (Just look at the statistics for GA-4, 5, 6, 7, 13), but a lot of black belt counties have numbers on par or below the statewide average. Your traditional red Trump rural county seems to be about on par, along with the mid-sized cities.

[SCNCmod]

What incentive is there for Trump to hurt Mitch McConnell and the Republican Party? Like seriously what incentive or advantage? He’s actively campaigning for Perdue and Loeffler yet wants to hurt Mitch and the senate GOP?
I’m trying to put the puzzle together but I don’t get it

My attempt at a guess:
1) He doesn't want to be the only one to lose Georgia & look like the only failure on the GA campaign trail (misery loves company).
2) But he will never pass up an opportunity to get in front of a rally of Trump fans.

Not sure why else he's supporting the $2000, unless he forgetting that Biden supporters will also get the money (since usually he is intent on punishing those who did not vote for him).  Although, this could indicate a calculation to look better to the public... either b/c he intends to run in 2024, or b/c it will benefit his plans for a media network or show after the election.

[ProgressiveModerate]

What incentive is there for Trump to hurt Mitch McConnell and the Republican Party? Like seriously what incentive or advantage? He’s actively campaigning for Perdue and Loeffler yet wants to hurt Mitch and the senate GOP?
I’m trying to put the puzzle together but I don’t get it

My attempt at a guess:
1) He doesn't want to be the only one to lose Georgia & look like the only failure on the GA campaign trail (misery loves company).
2) But he will never pass up an opportunity to get in front of a rally of Trump fans.

Not sure why else he's supporting the $2000, unless he forgetting that Biden supporters will also get the money (since usually he is intent on punishing those who did not vote for him).  Although, this could indicate a calculation to look better to the public... either b/c he intends to run in 2024, or b/c it will benefit his plans for a media network or show after the election.

Or maybe he just has no clue what he's doing.

[UWS]

Bagel and his hackish Predictions on GA😆😆😆, even Trafalgar has D's winning GA.

Due to the 2K stimulus checks, so many wrong predictions from Users like Bagel on the forum

Look, Trafalgar already had Tillis losing in North Carolina, but that was all wrong at the end as Tillis won by 2.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1PIe4nvZYQ2UZ5e30NenDolEgi1QlYl8_/view

[SCNCmod]

What incentive is there for Trump to hurt Mitch McConnell and the Republican Party? Like seriously what incentive or advantage? He’s actively campaigning for Perdue and Loeffler yet wants to hurt Mitch and the senate GOP?
I’m trying to put the puzzle together but I don’t get it

My attempt at a guess:
1) He doesn't want to be the only one to lose Georgia & look like the only failure on the GA campaign trail (misery loves company).
2) But he will never pass up an opportunity to get in front of a rally of Trump fans.

Not sure why else he's supporting the $2000, unless he forgetting that Biden supporters will also get the money (since usually he is intent on punishing those who did not vote for him).  Although, this could indicate a calculation to look better to the public... either b/c he intends to run in 2024, or b/c it will benefit his plans for a media network or show after the election.

Or maybe he just has no clue what he's doing.

I also wonder if Trump's $2000 push is a reaction to seeing Bernie & Hawley getting so much attention for supporting $1200 stimulus (Not wanting Bernie to take some of his supporters... or not wanting Hawley gaining too much popularity and be seen as a front-runner for 2024, in case Trump plans on running again.

And on the flip side- I've wondered if Hawley is positioning himself to be at the top of Trump's running mate list, if Trump indeed decides to run in 2024.  Because I doubt Trump would choose Pence as running mate (and in fact I don't think he wanted him on the ticket this election, and I'm sure says in private that he would have won if he had picked a different running mate... not that this is true).  This would be Hawley's best chance to get to higher office in 2024- because he has to think that he & Nikki Haley would likely split the Republican Primary vote enough, to likely launch someone more on the far right into the nomination.  And even if Trump lost in 2024, it would set Hawley up to be the nominee in 2028 without much competition.

[Non Swing Voter]

Trump's not gonna run in 2024.  He's more likely to be in prison than running for election.  He's simply grifting at this point.

[SCNCmod]

Trump's not gonna run in 2024.  He's more likely to be in prison than running for election.  He's simply grifting at this point.

Look at Trump's doppelganger in Italy... former Prime Minister Berlusconi was elected to office again last year (at 82 years old) after being convicted of financial crimes.

[Pericles]

This has to be fake news, right? This is his one chance to be Majority Leader, he can't be that stupid to just let it slip. On the other hand, money doesn't matter anymore it seems, if this is true.
"Now, after the party performed poorly in down-ballot races, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., is no longer meeting with donors, a source familiar with the matter told NBC News.

Schumer is "pessimistic" about Warnock and Ossoff's chances in Georgia next week and doesn't want to ruin donor relationships, the source adds."
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/ossoff-warnock-warn-about-running-low-funds-seek-last-minute-n1252413

[Bootes Void]

This has to be fake news, right? This is his one chance to be Majority Leader, he can't be that stupid to just let it slip. On the other hand, money doesn't matter anymore it seems, if this is true.
"Now, after the party performed poorly in down-ballot races, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., is no longer meeting with donors, a source familiar with the matter told NBC News.

Schumer is "pessimistic" about Warnock and Ossoff's chances in Georgia next week and doesn't want to ruin donor relationships, the source adds."
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/ossoff-warnock-warn-about-running-low-funds-seek-last-minute-n1252413

Lmao how could Ossoff and Warnock be low on funds, don't they have $100 million raised? I think this is setting expectations moreso than anything else but I might be wrong, well wait

[brucejoel99]

This has to be fake news, right? This is his one chance to be Majority Leader, he can't be that stupid to just let it slip. On the other hand, money doesn't matter anymore it seems, if this is true.
"Now, after the party performed poorly in down-ballot races, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., is no longer meeting with donors, a source familiar with the matter told NBC News.

Schumer is "pessimistic" about Warnock and Ossoff's chances in Georgia next week and doesn't want to ruin donor relationships, the source adds."
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/ossoff-warnock-warn-about-running-low-funds-seek-last-minute-n1252413

L.ao how could Ossoff and Warnock be low on funds, don't they have $100 million raised? I think this is setting expectations moreso than anything else but I might be wrong, well wait

Yeah, not exactly a great message when the campaigns have been setting fundraising records. Where's all that money been going?

[SCNCmod]

This has to be fake news, right? This is his one chance to be Majority Leader, he can't be that stupid to just let it slip. On the other hand, money doesn't matter anymore it seems, if this is true.
"Now, after the party performed poorly in down-ballot races, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., is no longer meeting with donors, a source familiar with the matter told NBC News.

Schumer is "pessimistic" about Warnock and Ossoff's chances in Georgia next week and doesn't want to ruin donor relationships, the source adds."
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/ossoff-warnock-warn-about-running-low-funds-seek-last-minute-n1252413

My guess is Schumer thinks Warnock & Ossoff do not need any more money- Considering Ossoff has raised more money than any other Senate race in the history of the US.  Not sure about being "pessimistic" about their chances?  He could have been downplaying expectations and this one source took it the wrong way. 

I would be careful to read too much into one opinion or one person's characterization in this regard.
Also- surely Ossoff & Warnock have plenty of money to finish out this election without having to spare any expenses.  If not- I would suggest they hire new consultants.