Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[ProgressiveModerate]

Do people think following Nate Cohn's analysis today Democrats are now slight favorites?

I think it's really hard to say who the favorite.

At face value, it would be Republicans just based on histroy and the fact that Perdue won more votes than Ossoff in the GE. Polling has been very tight, but across the board polling underestimated the GOP this cycle.

However, my model thinks that at the current rate, the electorate will probably be something like Biden + 2 or so. The question is will things dramatically change in an unforeseeable way and if every Biden voter will vote for Ossoff and Warnock and vise-versa

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes, D's should win these seats both Leaders have shown bad judgements in passing the Stimulus but Mcconnell is the worse.

Rand Paul is arguing on the floor now on the debt but what happened in 2017 he passed, with our friends passing tax cuts for rich

[Horus]

Do people think following Nate Cohn's analysis today Democrats are now slight favorites?

There are no favorites here. Both races will almost certainly be within a point.

[Rookie Yinzer]

https://twitter.com/gtryan/status/1341052564515790853?s=20

Hmmm.... I told y'all a significant number of people who voted by mail would be voting in-person when y'all were freaking out about the skew of the mail-in requests.

[DrScholl]

https://twitter.com/rweingarten/status/1341007236898959369

[Bootes Void]

https://twitter.com/DPRK_News/status/1340763569974079488

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/rweingarten/status/1341007236898959369

Ya gotta love conservative Republican logic: if a Democratic candidate has ties to a church that hosts some firebrand sermons, they're "radicalized" or "extremist" but the red state churches that go on & on about the evils of Islam, homosexuality, women's rights, & minority rights are just average "Christians" exercising their "religious liberty."

They're the real extremists.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1CHaYVrkw7GVGga4Jna_d4Kau8ESLYHCEKO9-INR_P9o/edit?usp=sharing

Made a more detailed calculator which outputs 609k for Ds and 508k for Rs at the moment. Here, you can specify how many votes were cast absentee, in person early, and on election day.

The full model (on a seperate spreadsheet) currently expects a Trump +9.43 electorate which would essentially guarentee a Perdue and Loeffler win, but it's not quite not done yet and needs to be refined because it assumes a disproportionate amount of the remaining vote will be in person

It's down to Trump +8.67 today using the same methodology. This number is likely to decrease as we get closer to election day; we'll see if it flips.

Trump + 7.87 today. This number is almost certainly going to continue to go down, we'll just have to see if it becomes Biden positive

[forsythvoter]

https://twitter.com/lawindsor/status/1340392013162835970?s=20
Forsythvoter, you still considering Perdue? 👀

Fwiw, I don't think very highly of either Perdue or Loeffler - they don't strike me as authentic in the slightest and I doubt they have the interests of even the Trump base at heart, but how other voters vote is not for me to decide.

As for Perdue specifically - is there actual video or audio evidence he intends to go through with challenging the election results in the Senate floor? I can't believe he would be stupid enough to commit to the challenging the results but if there is direct evidence, it will of course impact my final decision on who to vote for.

[SCNCmod]

Survey USA Poll (Dec 16-20)

Ossoff: +5  (gain +3 from their previous poll)
Warnock: +7 (same as their previous poll)

**NOTE of Caution: The polls like Trafalgar show the opposite (Loeffler & Perdue strengthen their lead in the several weeks between the company's 2 polls).  


Obviously, the Survey USA poll probably skews left in the same way several others skew right, but some interesting data points they found:

Republican Headwinds: "Very Conservative Voters"
Of those who identify as "very conservative," 55% say they are not voting in the runoff elections because "the voting process is rigged."  Another 7% of "very conservative" voters say they are "intentionally boycotting" the runoffs.

Democrat Headwind:
newly announced Runoff Eve 01/04/2021 campaign rally by President Donald J. Trump


Early Voters who've already voted
among those voters who have already returned a runoff ballot (Poll was Dec 16-20)...  Ossoff leads Perdue by 27 points, Warnock leads Loeffler by 25 points.


Ossoff/Perdue: Shifts since last poll
3 weeks ago, Perdue led by 43 points among white voters. But today, Ossoff closes to within 36.

Warnock/Loeffler: Shifts since last poll
Loeffler's red-hot rhetoric has succeeded in alienating both independents and moderates (but attracts "very conservatives").
3 weeks ago, Warnock led Loeffler by 3 points among GA independents; today Warnock leads by 18.
3 weeks ago, Warnock led Loeffler by 29 points among GA moderates; today, he leads her by 51 points.
3 weeks ago, Loeffler led by 64 points among GA "very conservative" voters; today, she leads by 76 points.
3 weeks ago, "very conservative" voters were 17% of the runoff electorate; today, they are 21% of the electorate.

[Brittain33]

I refuse to get my hopes up

[tagimaucia]

AJC/UGA and Atlas Intel both have polls forthcoming in this race (when exactly I dunno).

I get the impression that most people don’t care about polls any longer in these races because they don’t think they can tell us anything we don’t already know (that it’s gonna be very close).

[SCNCmod]

AJC/UGA and Atlas Intel both have polls forthcoming in this race (when exactly I dunno).

I get the impression that most people don’t care about polls any longer in these races because they don’t think they can tell us anything we don’t already know (that it’s gonna be very close).

Although I agree that polls are problematic due to the turnout model being the big unknown- I do think there is potentially valuable info that can be gleaned from polls that provide in-depth crosstabs. 

[wbrocks67]

VBM + IN PERSON EARLY
Nov GE: 4.03M (56.5% white, 27.7% black) ---> +28.8 white
12/15: 483K (53.9% white, 33.4% black) ---> +20.5 white
12/16: 715K (54.5% white, 33.1% black) ---> +21.4 white
12/17: 914K (55.0% white, 32.5% black) —> +22.5 white
12/18: 1.12M (55.4% white, 32.0% black) —> +23.4 white
12/19: 1.34M (55.6% white, 31.6% black) —> +24.0 white
12/21: 1.47M (54.4% white, 32.4% black) —> +22.0 white
12/22: 1.68M (54.8% white, 31.9% black) —> +22.9 white

VBM requests
Nov GE: 1.78M (51.2% white, 31.4% black) ---> +19.8 white
12/10: 1.17M (53.6% white, 31.2% black) ---> +22.4 white
12/13: 1.25M (53.0% white, 31.6% black) ---> +21.4 white
12/17: 1.28M (52.2% white, 32.0% black) —> +20.2 white
12/18: 1.30M (52.0% white, 32.2% black) —> +19.8 white
12/19: 1.31M (51.8% white, 32.4% black) —> +19.4 white
12/21: 1.32M (51.7% white, 32.4% black) —> +19.3 white
12/22: 1.33M (51.6% white, 32.5% black) —> +19.1 white

VBM accepted
Nov GE: 1.32M (53.0% white, 30.3% black) ---> +22.7 white
12/16: 379K (56.9% white, 30.7% black) ---> +26.2 white
12/17: 427K (56.5% white, 31.0% black) —> +25.5 white
12/18: 481K (56.3% white, 30.9% black) —> +25.4 white
12/19: 525K (56.1% white, 30.9% black) —> +25.2 white
12/21: 570K (55.5% white, 31.3% black) —> +24.2 white
12/22: 621K (55.4% white, 31.2% black) —> +24.2 white

IN PERSON EARLY votes
Nov GE: 2.69M (58.2% white, 26.4% black) ---> +31.8 white
12/16: 336K (51.9% white, 35.8% black) ---> +16.1 white
12/17: 487K (53.7% white, 33.9% black) —> +19.8 white
12/18: 642K (54.7% white, 32.8% black) —> +21.9 white
12/19: 812K (55.3% white, 32.0% black) —> +23.3 white
12/21: 902K (53.8% white, 33.1% black) —> +20.7 white
12/22: 1.06M (54.4% white, 32.4% black) —> +22.0 white

[T0rM3nTeD]

12/22 Update - 1.68M votes so far

Total of 621,098 (+51K) mail ballots accepted so far (1.32M in the General)
Total of 1.331M (+10K) mail ballots requested so far (1.782M in the General)
Total of 1,057,526 (+155K) EIP votes so far (2.694M in the General)

Breakdown of those votes by county following same percentages that they broke in the General would result in:

Dems - 894,347 (+104K)
GOP - 784,277 (+103K)

Dems +110,071 (+1K

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1341403800465272837
don't do this
don't make me hope

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The majority is within our path and Statehood is on the horizon

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/lawindsor/status/1340392013162835970?s=20
Forsythvoter, you still considering Perdue? 👀

Fwiw, I don't think very highly of either Perdue or Loeffler - they don't strike me as authentic in the slightest and I doubt they have the interests of even the Trump base at heart, but how other voters vote is not for me to decide.

As for Perdue specifically - is there actual video or audio evidence he intends to go through with challenging the election results in the Senate floor? I can't believe he would be stupid enough to commit to the challenging the results but if there is direct evidence, it will of course impact my final decision on who to vote for.

Perdue won't be on the Senate floor on Jan. 6, win or lose the runoff.  His current term ends on Jan. 3, so the seat will be vacant until the runoff results are certified, which will not occur until well after Jan. 6.  If he actually said this, it's pure bluster to feed the base (which doesn't make it any better).

[wbrocks67]

FWIW, the 538 averages are pretty even/realistic

Ossoff 48.7
Perdue 48.3

Warnock 49.0
Loeffler 48.1

[Not Me, Us]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1341403800465272837
don't do this
don't make me hope

Junk poll. Haven't we learned our lesson that polls that show Democrats leading by significant margins this cycle are always wrong?

[Adam Griffin]

One good indicator in my opinion that isn't getting a lot of air time is the fact that the difference in racial composition between (accepted) ABM and AIP ballots is nearing zero. The difference between these two sets of votes remained substantially large throughout the entire AIP voting period (>5 points) in November and in 2018; it started comparably wide for the runoff but has shrunk quickly. Currently, the gulf as measured by white margin is only 2.2 points.  

This could be indicative of several factors. The most likely is that a large contingent of black voters who waited to vote until Election Day in November due to long lines are now voting early in-person instead.

I suppose the most pessimistic scenario for Democrats could be that a greater segment of white liberals who voted early in November have yet to cast their ballots in the runoff for whatever reason: as such, that could make the racial composition a lot less friendlier than would be expected.

But it's Georgia: when in doubt, bet on race. You'll never go broke in the long-term placing that bet over and over again.

[VAR]

LOL, why is she even trying? Women can't be populists.

[VAR]

much better

[forsythvoter]

There is a really neat site that tracks turnout statistics by race, age, gender , county and congressional districts:
https://www.georgiavotes.com/county.php

Here's where we stand in terms of early vote by Congressional District. Does someone have the Biden % by Georgia congressional district?


District       RV        Votes   Mail (B)    Mail (V)  Early (V)   % of Gen

GA-5        626,977 146,440 113,909   47,312  99,128      46.7%
GA-4        555,113 138,298 116,906   54,151  84,147      45.9%
GA-13      573,033 142,969 104,934   48,939  94,030      45.7%
GA-2        452,270   94,762   67,149  31,035  63,727       44.3%
GA-8        484,047 104,517   65,451  36,673  67,844       43.8%
GA-6        542,180 145,785 123,371  60,010  85,775       42.2%
GA-1        532,375 104,833   78,822  38,376  66,457       41.2%
GA-3        550,621 119,161   82,011  40,972  78,189       41.2%
GA-12      491,245   95,762   70,303  37,283  58,479       40.6%
GA-9        540,452 122,754   76,204  42,144  80,610       40.1%
GA-7        543,452 125,860 103,963  50,947  74,913       39.5%
GA-10      545,211 121,666   85,180  38,233  83,433       39.2%
GA-11      577,393 126,137 115,317  61,998  64,139       37.9%
GA-14      468,681   89,653   58,340  33,017  56,636       37.0%

Just eyeballing the top / bottom turnout districts here:

• GA-5, GA-4 and GA-13 are heavily D urban metro Atlanta districts
• A lot of black belt is in GA-2
• GA-10 and GA-14 are predominately white rural districts and GA-11 is a mix of North GA rurals and Cobb

It also looks like voters in the swing GA-6 and GA-7 districts are starting to make up their minds as their turnout has jumped a bit over the last few days.

[wbrocks67]

INteresting that GA-14 is dead last but maybe that district has the most of Election Day voters