Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[GALeftist]

Steve Daines? Tilt R -> Safe R (unless Tester campaigns for Ds in GA, in which case the state implodes)

I mean true, but Sarah Palin attending probably cancels out Daines' superpowers

What's the story here- why would Daines or Tester have any impact in GA?

Because they are both unbeatable titans.

I assume I'm missing some sort of sarcastic joking regarding Daines & Tester having any impact in GA?

What are you talking about? The glorious kings of Montana are well known to be the gods of the American political sphere. Their intervention all but assures victory.

(Yes, I can guarantee you no voters in Georgia are being persuaded by Daines.)

[ProgressiveModerate]

I really don't get why Atlas obsesses over people like Daines going to GA to support the Republican canidates. Ultimately, very very few GA voters know who Steve Daines is, and the ones who do know him are probably politically engaged enough to the point where they are certain to vote, and have already made up their mind. The only surrogates with real power are those with big names like Trump or Obama, everything else is just a bunch of drama, just drama.

Again, this election will come down to turnout; both sides have the votes to win these runoffs, it's just a question of how well the voters are activated. There are very few swing voters, let alone those who care about Steve Daine's bipartisan bills, and for the few undecided voters, Steve Daines will have very little influence over their voting choice.

How about instead of having pages of political drama, we actually try to analyze the numbers we do have to do our best to try to pin down where these races stand? Sure, early voting isn't the end all be all, but certainly did in hindsight give us some clues into states like FL, TX, and yes, GA.

If I see one more post about Steve Daines in this thread, I’m going to flip out, and trust me, you do not want to see the angry Progressive Moderate

[brucejoel99]

I really don't get why Atlas obsesses over people like Daines going to GA to support the Republican canidates. Ultimately, very very few GA voters know who Steve Daines is, and the ones who do know him are probably politically engaged enough to the point where they are certain to vote, and have already made up their mind. The only surrogates with real power are those with big names like Trump or Obama, everything else is just a bunch of drama, just drama.

Again, this election will come down to turnout; both sides have the votes to win these runoffs, it's just a question of how well the voters are activated. There are very few swing voters, let alone those who care about Steve Daine's bipartisan bills, and for the few undecided voters, Steve Daines will have very little influence over their voting choice.

How about instead of having pages of political drama, we actually try to analyze the numbers we do have to do our best to try to pin down where these races stand? Sure, early voting isn't the end all be all, but certainly did in hindsight give us some clues into states like FL, TX, and yes, GA.

If I see one more post about Steve Daines in this thread, I’m going to flip out, and trust me, you do not want to see the angry Progressive Moderate

Sir, this is a meme blog.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Steve Daines? Tilt R -> Safe R (unless Tester campaigns for Ds in GA, in which case the state implodes)

I mean true, but Sarah Palin attending probably cancels out Daines' superpowers

What's the story here- why would Daines or Tester have any impact in GA?

Because they are both unbeatable titans.

I assume I'm missing some sort of sarcastic joking regarding Daines & Tester having any impact in GA?

On a slightly different note, although I go back and forth regarding the possibility of a split result (and similarly regarding if the results will be extremely close or not)-  I keep going back to the notion that all of the unknown factors regarding turnout, are going to break to one party- enough so that one party will win both seats by something like 3-4% & 1-2% respectively).

Steve Daines and Jon Tester both bring unique characteristics to the table that are uniquely suited to have a significant impact on the Georgia Senate runoffs, albeit in different ways. In a close election, their intervention could potentially tip the balance either way.

First, consider Jon Tester. When Jon Tester was a young Jon, of about 9 years of age, he unfortunately lost 3 of his fingers in an agricultural accident involving a meat grinder. As a result of this, all Jon Tester has to do is flash his hand in the air, and *BOOM* instant farm credibility.

So now consider the position that Radical Liberal Raphael Warnock finds himself in. Kelly Loeffler made quite clear in the recent debate that one of the main reasons people in Georgia should vote for her is that she grew up on a farm. However, if Radical Liberal Raphael Warnock can get Jon Tester to come in to vouch for him, the tables start to turn pretty radically. Just consider the thoughts that go through the minds of the typical Appling County GA rural voter when they see Jon Tester vouching for Raphael Warnock, and then compare that to Kelly Loeffler. Kelly Loeffler has unusally long hair. Imagine if she were to do some work with a meatgrinder. What do you think would happen? Well, pretty quickly her hair would get sucked into the meatgrinder. First just 1 hair, but then the other hairs would get pulled in sequence, leading to potential for a dangerous accident. By contrast, Jon Tester learned from his meatgrinder accident, and has short, closely cropped hair. As a result, if Jon Tester were to work with a meatgrinder, he could do so safely without risk of his hair being pulled into the meatgrinder. Who would you trust to grind meat - Kelly Loeffler or Jon Tester? Clearly Jon Tester. And by extension, Radical Liberal Raphael Warnock.

Next, consider Steve Daines. Steve Daines is pretty widely recognized as perhaps one of the most Bipartisan Senators in the United States Senate. His record of bipartisanship goes back many years, and includes things such as his
Daines' Bipartisan Wildfire Prevention Bill which he introduced with Democratic Senator Feinstein of California. Daines also was a key player in passage of the Great American Outdoors Act, which contained permanent funding for the Land, Water and Conservation Fund and billions of dollars for national park maintenance. What is more, Senator Daines helped expand acreage in the Bob Marshall Wilderness when Barack Obama was president, and paired up with Democrats to pass a bill granting benefits to Vietnam Navy veterans harmed by Agent Orange. I could keep talking about Daines' Bipartisan accomplishment for pages and pages, but I am starting to run dangerously close to the character limit for this post, so I will have to try to keep things concise. I will, however, add that Daines voted with Democrats last year to move a bill out of committee to reduce prescription drug prices and also has co-sponsored a bipartisan bill to help solve the U.S. Postal Service’s financial woes. OK, I will stop now, I promise, although I could say more.

But anyway, now consider the position that Suburban King David Perdue finds himself in. He is running for re-election in a state that Democrat Joe Biden just won - the first time in more than 20 years (since Bill Clinton) that Democrats won Georgia (with a very different coalition). The Georgia GOP has been hemmorhagging votes in the Atlanta suburbs, especially in the past few years, and is full of moderate suburbanite voters who want to see the parties work together and compromise. They just voted for Joe Biden, but while they don't want to give Biden a blank check, they do want their Senators to work constructively with Biden on Bipartisan legislation for the national common good, to Solve Problems (™). In order to win, Perdue needs to hold on to enough of these moderate suburban swing voters, who voted for Biden but voted GOP in the past, and want Bipartisanship and good governance. So who better to come in and vouch for David Perdue's Bipartisan credentials than Steve Daines? That's right... I can hear the wheels turning in your head. Nobody can do a better job of assuaging such concerns than Bipartisan Senator Steve Daines.

In sum, both Tester and Daines are uniquely situated to shore up key weaknesses and help candidates on their side to victory - in Tester's case, he can help Warnock get enough rural support so that he can dominate in the Atlanta metro and win without being outvoted by the rurals. And in Daines' case, he can help David Perdue retain just enough grip on the Suburbs where for many years he has reigned, but which have been trending sharply against the GOP, to pull out a win.

I hope this #Analysis helps to clear things up.

[WD]

Honestly, if Steve Daines was the GOP nominee, the GOP would have veto proof majorities in both houses right now. Biden is lucky.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Interestingly Fulton has reported almost 0 percent of mail in ballots, Clarke has reported NOTHING, and Muscogee, Bibb, and Richmond have barely reported anything either. The accepted ballots are way more Dem and Black than it looks right now.

[SCNCmod]

How about instead of having pages of political drama, we actually try to analyze the numbers we do have to do our best to try to pin down where these races stand? Sure, early voting isn't the end all be all, but certainly did in hindsight give us some clues into states like FL, TX, and yes, GA.

I didn't follow early vote discussions closely during the general- did those numbers indicate FL & TX would not be as close as some polls showed & that GA would in fact be a nail-biter?  And if so- what does the same analysis model say about the runoff... or is it too early to tell?  (factoring in... that it appears from the post just above^, the numbers being reported are not complete?)

[Florida Man for Crime]

I really don't get why Atlas obsesses over people like Daines going to GA to support the Republican canidates. Ultimately, very very few GA voters know who Steve Daines is

That may be the case now, but Steve Daines has only just started to retail campaign. In addition to his Bipartisanship, Steve Daines is known for his prowess at the art of retail campaigning (like many Senators from small rural states, including his fellow Senator Jon Tester).

, and the ones who do know him are probably politically engaged enough to the point where they are certain to vote, and have already made up their mind.

You talk about juicing turnout as though it is a bad thing. If Steve Daines can help increase Republican turnout, that will help Republicans.

The only surrogates with real power are those with big names like Trump or Obama, everything else is just a bunch of drama, just drama.

Not really. David Perdue does not really need Trump to be his surrogate. The problem that David Perdue has is in the suburbs, where Trump would actually hurt. What he needs to hold on to the suburbs is a voice that can credibly testify to Perdue's moderation and Bipartisan work ethic - just as Steve Daines is uniquely well-equipped to do. Likewise, Radical Liberal Raphael Warnock doesn't much need help from Obama. Warnock is African American, and has lots of support from Stacey Abrams' turnout machine. But what Warnock DOES need help with is making sure he doesn't do too horrendously in rural GA, especially among rural white voters. Jon Tester can help persuade those voters that Raphael Warnock can't be that bad, because if he gets on with Jon Tester, then he would get on well with people like them and must be at heart a good guy.

Again, this election will come down to turnout; both sides have the votes to win these runoffs, it's just a question of how well the voters are activated. There are very few swing voters, let alone those who care about Steve Daine's bipartisan bills, and for the few undecided voters, Steve Daines will have very little influence over their voting choice.

Just look at the many many posters on this very discussion board who exemplify the Atlanta area suburban voters who have swung towards the Dems, but who voted Republican to the past and may be willing to do so now also, especially since Biden will be the next President. What these voters want is compromise, bipartisanship, and cooperation. They are repelled by Trumpist excess, and need a calm reassuring voice like Steve Daines rambling on about his bipartisan bills. Ultimately little can help with these voters more than Steve Daines and his Bipartisan bills. Those will put you to sleep, and that is EXACTLY WHAT THESE VOTERS WANT. A RETURN TO NORMALCY. SO THAT THEY CAN JUST SLEEP SOUNDLY.

If I see one more post about Steve Daines in this thread, I’m going to flip out, and trust me, you do not want to see the angry Progressive Moderate

You are a typical Angry Radical Liberal, just like Raphael Warnock. You know what that sort of attitude does? It alienates Metro Atlanta suburban college-educated white swing voters. Despite how much you want to riot and loot, if you want a chance for your favored candidates to win, you will need to restrain yourself and allow Jon Tester to work his retail campaigning magic on rural white voters.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I really don't get why Atlas obsesses over people like Daines going to GA to support the Republican canidates. Ultimately, very very few GA voters know who Steve Daines is, and the ones who do know him are probably politically engaged enough to the point where they are certain to vote, and have already made up their mind. The only surrogates with real power are those with big names like Trump or Obama, everything else is just a bunch of drama, just drama.

Again, this election will come down to turnout; both sides have the votes to win these runoffs, it's just a question of how well the voters are activated. There are very few swing voters, let alone those who care about Steve Daine's bipartisan bills, and for the few undecided voters, Steve Daines will have very little influence over their voting choice.

How about instead of having pages of political drama, we actually try to analyze the numbers we do have to do our best to try to pin down where these races stand? Sure, early voting isn't the end all be all, but certainly did in hindsight give us some clues into states like FL, TX, and yes, GA.

If I see one more post about Steve Daines in this thread, I’m going to flip out, and trust me, you do not want to see the angry Progressive Moderate

Sir, this is a meme blog.

I respectfully disagree strongly; this is Atlas. Sometimes we’re a bit silly, but this forum is supposed to be serious. If all y’all are really so obsessed with Steve Daines, why not start a Steve Daines fandom?

Also; because of the continuation of posts about Steve Daines, I’m afraid this thread is going to get some cursed Senate runoff maps tomorrow from an angry progressive moderate. For reference, this is what happened last time there was an angry ProgressiveModerate: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=406876.0

[ProgressiveModerate]

How about instead of having pages of political drama, we actually try to analyze the numbers we do have to do our best to try to pin down where these races stand? Sure, early voting isn't the end all be all, but certainly did in hindsight give us some clues into states like FL, TX, and yes, GA.

I didn't follow early vote discussions closely during the general- did those numbers indicate FL & TX would not be as close as some polls showed & that GA would in fact be a nail-biter?  And if so- what does the same analysis model say about the runoff... or is it too early to tell?  (factoring in... that it appears from the post just above^, the numbers being reported are not complete?)

The GOP was getting good numbers out of Miami-Dade, and TX kept setting record in voter turnout from early votes alone. In GA, early voting also made exit very clear this would be a high turnout election

[Pericles]

How about instead of having pages of political drama, we actually try to analyze the numbers we do have to do our best to try to pin down where these races stand? Sure, early voting isn't the end all be all, but certainly did in hindsight give us some clues into states like FL, TX, and yes, GA.

I didn't follow early vote discussions closely during the general- did those numbers indicate FL & TX would not be as close as some polls showed & that GA would in fact be a nail-biter?  And if so- what does the same analysis model say about the runoff... or is it too early to tell?  (factoring in... that it appears from the post just above^, the numbers being reported are not complete?)

Technically Florida was as close as the polls predicted, they just got the winner wrong.

[WD]

I really don't get why Atlas obsesses over people like Daines going to GA to support the Republican canidates. Ultimately, very very few GA voters know who Steve Daines is, and the ones who do know him are probably politically engaged enough to the point where they are certain to vote, and have already made up their mind. The only surrogates with real power are those with big names like Trump or Obama, everything else is just a bunch of drama, just drama.

Again, this election will come down to turnout; both sides have the votes to win these runoffs, it's just a question of how well the voters are activated. There are very few swing voters, let alone those who care about Steve Daine's bipartisan bills, and for the few undecided voters, Steve Daines will have very little influence over their voting choice.

How about instead of having pages of political drama, we actually try to analyze the numbers we do have to do our best to try to pin down where these races stand? Sure, early voting isn't the end all be all, but certainly did in hindsight give us some clues into states like FL, TX, and yes, GA.

If I see one more post about Steve Daines in this thread, I’m going to flip out, and trust me, you do not want to see the angry Progressive Moderate

Sir, this is a meme blog.

I respectfully disagree strongly; this is Atlas. Sometimes we’re a bit silly, but this forum is supposed to be serious. If all y’all are really so obsessed with Steve Daines, why not start a Steve Daines fandom?

Also; because of the continuation of posts about Steve Daines, I’m afraid this thread is going to get some cursed Senate runoff maps tomorrow from an angry progressive moderate. For reference, this is what happened last time there was an angry ProgressiveModerate: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=406876.0

Sir, do you have a moment to speak about our lord and savior, Senator Steve Daines?

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Can we get off Steve Daines and move on to the actual race? Cool.

Anyway, 2 dozen black pastors decided that it was sooo important to send Warnock an open letter requesting he switch to being pro-life cause y’know the most important thing in this election during a pandemic and economic collapse is abortion 🙄.

[brucejoel99]

Can we get off Steve Daines and move on to the actual race?

Sir, Steve Daines is the actual race.

[VBM]

https://twitter.com/DJJudd/status/1337412672422338567

I read the whole thing, and honestly lost brain cells. 

How is sending Steve Daines and a bunch of right wing kooks to Georgia supposed to help the GOP?

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/DJJudd/status/1337412672422338567

I read the whole thing, and honestly lost brain cells. 

How is sending Steve Daines and a bunch of right wing kooks to Georgia supposed to help the GOP?

Beats me. I guess Palin, Gohmert and MTG can rile up the hardcore base, but Daines being there doesn't make any sense.

[WD]

https://twitter.com/DJJudd/status/1337412672422338567
I read the whole thing, and honestly lost brain cells. 

How is sending Steve Daines and a bunch of right wing kooks to Georgia supposed to help the GOP?

Beats me. I guess Palin, Gohmert and MTG can rile up the hardcore base, but Daines being there doesn't make any sense.

Daines automatically gives any political candidate he campaigns for an extra 15% of the vote. This race is over.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Interestingly Fulton has reported almost 0 percent of mail in ballots, Clarke has reported NOTHING, and Muscogee, Bibb, and Richmond have barely reported anything either. The accepted ballots are way more Dem and Black than it looks right now.

Are any white rurals underreporting?

[GALeftist]

Interestingly Fulton has reported almost 0 percent of mail in ballots, Clarke has reported NOTHING, and Muscogee, Bibb, and Richmond have barely reported anything either. The accepted ballots are way more Dem and Black than it looks right now.

This is because ballots are only just now arriving. I live in Fulton and got mine today.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Interestingly Fulton has reported almost 0 percent of mail in ballots, Clarke has reported NOTHING, and Muscogee, Bibb, and Richmond have barely reported anything either. The accepted ballots are way more Dem and Black than it looks right now.

Are any white rurals underreporting?

Pickens and Banks. The white rurals in both North and South GA are way above the state average.

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/GA_RO.html

[SCNCmod]

Interestingly Fulton has reported almost 0 percent of mail in ballots, Clarke has reported NOTHING, and Muscogee, Bibb, and Richmond have barely reported anything either. The accepted ballots are way more Dem and Black than it looks right now.

This is because ballots are only just now arriving. I live in Fulton and got mine today.

Why is Fulton so far behind the rest of the state in sending out ballots?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Interestingly Fulton has reported almost 0 percent of mail in ballots, Clarke has reported NOTHING, and Muscogee, Bibb, and Richmond have barely reported anything either. The accepted ballots are way more Dem and Black than it looks right now.

Are any white rurals underreporting?

Pickens and Banks. The white rurals in both North and South GA are way above the state average.

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/GA_RO.html

This is why I'm looking at ballots requested rather than ballots accepted. If someone goes out of their way to request a ballot, chances are they will end up voting one way or another. For some reason, NE GA always seems to have strong numbers when it comes to absentee ballots; not exactly sure why that is.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

https://twitter.com/CAMcGrady/status/1337793180180287490?s=20

what the ?

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/CAMcGrady/status/1337793180180287490?s=20

what the ?

"COVID-1619" must be a reference to 1619, the year that the first African slaves arrived in what became the Thirteen Colonies and ultimately, the United States. It is still a bizarre reference, though, incorporating this year's pandemic with the injustices of the past.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

https://twitter.com/CAMcGrady/status/1337793180180287490?s=20
what the ?

"COVID-1619" must be a reference to 1619, the year that the first African slaves arrived in what became the Thirteen Colonies and ultimately, the United States. It is still a bizarre reference, though, incorporating this year's pandemic with the injustices of the past.

and what does it all have to do with attacks on his candidacy?