2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[GeorgiaModerate]

Here's a bit of Georgia trivia.  Fulton County was originally three separate counties: the original Fulton (which before its creation was part of DeKalb County), Campbell County to its southwest, and Milton County to its north.  During the Great Depression, Campbell and Milton were combined into Fulton as an austerity measure; this is why Fulton has such a long skinny shape.

Milton County still retains some identity among residents (there are periodic movements for it to secede from Fulton and become Milton among).  Atlas alumnus J. Miles Coleman posted this about it:

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1232029950070284289

Ahhh! I was gonna ask you about Milton County, GM.  Budget Texas-looking-ass county....

Check the modified post - I originally included only Miles's original tweet, not his followup with the actual results.

[CellarDoor]

https://twitter.com/girlsreallyrule/status/1325021880022147079?s=19

This is hilarious.

[afleitch]

The trend in ballots still waiting has been consistent in nearly every state. The early vote was a nationwide trend and has been known for weeks. The networks know this. This should have been called yesterday.

[President Johnson]

John Fetterman on CNN, saying he doesn't see how Trump is pulling out Pennsylvania. He doesn't understand why networks don't call it. He's a big FF and I hope he'll be either the next governor or senator. Definitely one of the best progressive Democrats.

[wbrocks67]

John Fetterman on CNN, saying he doesn't see how Trump is pulling out Pennsylvania. He doesn't understand why networks don't call it. He's a big FF and I hope he'll be either the next governor or senator. Definitely one of the best progressive Democrats.

I think Shapiro will run for Gov and Fetterman for Sen. Which I think works to both their strengths and has both their best chances to win.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

So what is stopping the Republican-controlled Pennsylvania legislature from simply saying "We don't care what the official tally is. We are awarding all electors to Donald Trump"?

Some Trumpers talked about that before the election and Donald Trump Jr. retweeted Mark Levin's tweet that demanded such action (Twitter removed it).

If they try, Gov. Wolf can still send his own (imho, more legitimate) slate of electors to Congress. And if both houses of Congress don't agree on which slate takes precedence, per existing law, the Governor's does. The Supreme Court could in theory override the law in question, but that would be seen as handing the election to Trump, which everyone seems to want to avoid so far.

Of more concern to me would be Kemp or Ducey (or Ricketts if its very close) submitting their own pro-Trump slate of electors under such circumstances.

[DaleCooper]

So what is stopping the Republican-controlled Pennsylvania legislature from simply saying "We don't care what the official tally is. We are awarding all electors to Donald Trump"?

Some Trumpers talked about that before the election and Donald Trump Jr. retweeted Mark Levin's tweet that demanded such action (Twitter removed it).

If they try, Gov. Wolf can still send his own (imho, more legitimate) slate of electors to Congress. And if both houses of Congress don't agree on which slate takes precedence, per existing law, the Governor's does. The Supreme Court could in theory override the law in question, but that would be seen as handing the election to Trump, which everyone seems to want to avoid so far.

Of more concern to me would be Kemp or Ducey (or Ricketts if its very close) submitting their own pro-Trump slate of electors under such circumstances.

I don't think Kemp or Ducey will do that. Republicans in Arizona and Georgia will be much better off career-wise with Trump gone.

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/laurapdavison/status/1325066617701732353

[GeorgiaModerate]

So what is stopping the Republican-controlled Pennsylvania legislature from simply saying "We don't care what the official tally is. We are awarding all electors to Donald Trump"?

Some Trumpers talked about that before the election and Donald Trump Jr. retweeted Mark Levin's tweet that demanded such action (Twitter removed it).

If they try, Gov. Wolf can still send his own (imho, more legitimate) slate of electors to Congress. And if both houses of Congress don't agree on which slate takes precedence, per existing law, the Governor's does. The Supreme Court could in theory override the law in question, but that would be seen as handing the election to Trump, which everyone seems to want to avoid so far.

Of more concern to me would be Kemp or Ducey (or Ricketts if its very close) submitting their own pro-Trump slate of electors under such circumstances.

I don't think Kemp or Ducey will do that. Republicans in Arizona and Georgia will be much better off career-wise with Trump gone.

Brian Kemp would be finished in 2022 if he tried that, and he's smart enough to not do so.  But apart from that, I actually believe he has more integrity than to try something like that.

[Hnv1]

https://twitter.com/laurapdavison/status/1325066617701732353

This is really inconsidered of us European posters. count at night you lazy bunch

[wbrocks67]

CNN keeps using a BS excuse as to why they can't call it. They keep talking about how their decision desk is using algorithms and the data and statisticians to go thru the data and be confident about the call.

However, if you go thru the data and what has come in and where it's coming from, the data is literally telling you the same thing every single time

[wbrocks67]

Reminder that many states have a lot of remaining ballots left to count, and the blue shift could continue, even in Red states. Indiana's margin in particular has shrunk to Trump +16 - was Trump +20 just a day or two ago.

https://twitter.com/scontorno/status/1325071285890772992

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/profmusgrave/status/1325048875397378048

[wbrocks67]

Current Popular Vote

Biden 75,193,785 (50.7%)
Trump 70,629,399 (47.6%)

Biden lead: +4,564,386 (3.1%)

cookpolitical.com/2020-national-popular-vote-tracker

[MasterJedi]

At least CNN is at the point where they're saying we know who's going to win but can't call it yet because stupid BS.

[afleitch]

At least CNN is at the point where they're saying we know who's going to win but can't call it yet because stupid BS.

[BlueSwan]

Current Popular Vote

Biden 75,193,785 (50.7%)
Trump 70,629,399 (47.6%)

Biden lead: +4,564,386 (3.1%)

cookpolitical.com/2020-national-popular-vote-tracker

And it is going to go a lot higher. Nationally this isn’t a close election, only the EC makes it seem so.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/profmusgrave/status/1325048875397378048

Yes.

[Mike88]

As there are no returns to discuss right now, some comic relief:

Trump right now:
https://twitter.com/al_antdp/status/1325039895539281920

[Tender Branson]

CA's remaining 3.8 million ballots alone will increase Biden's percentage from 50.7% to 51.2%, while Trump falls from 47.6% to 47.1%

There's about 8 million ballots left in total (IL, NY, WA, CO, OR etc.)

A final margin of 51.5-46.8 (Biden +4.7%) looks likely.

Biden could barely cross 80 million votes in this scenario.

[BlueSwan]

CA's remaining 3.8 million ballots alone will increase Biden's percentage from 50.7% to 51.2%, while Trump falls from 47.6% to 47.1%

There's about 8 million ballots left in total (IL, NY, WA, CO, OR etc.)

A final margin of 51.5-46.8 (Biden +4.7%) looks likely.

Biden could barely cross 80 million votes in this scenario.

Yeah, I have been saying for a while that this looked like a Biden +4.5 result without actually running any numbers, so this looks right to me intuitively.

[Tender Branson]

CA's remaining 3.8 million ballots alone will increase Biden's percentage from 50.7% to 51.2%, while Trump falls from 47.6% to 47.1%

There's about 8 million ballots left in total (IL, NY, WA, CO, OR etc.)

A final margin of 51.5-46.8 (Biden +4.7%) looks likely.

Biden could barely cross 80 million votes in this scenario.

Yeah, I have been saying for a while that this looked like a Biden +4.5 result without actually running any numbers, so this looks right to me intuitively.

CA's remaining ballots are more likely to resemble the general electorate this year though, so no ridiculously high margins above 70% for Biden this time ...

Therefore, the national margin should probably be closer to 4% in the end, not 5%.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/JakeSherman/status/1325080794973528072

As I've said before, I don't wish ill on anyone, but I do have a fine appreciation for karma.

[Panda Express]

Fiji's Prime Minister First World Leader to Congratulate Biden on Election

Thank you Fiji!

[Inmate Trump]

As Biden takes the oath of office, CNN will be discussing how Trump could still win.