2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Now, nobody should be celebrating PA yet; I'm still mixed about the state rn.  But "400K outstanding ballots, mainly in SEPA" is not what you want to hear if you're Team Trump.  

Forgetting Philly itself, Chester County (with its seven point swing from 2016) is a pretty standard poster-child for how hard these largely white suburbs have gone against the GOP.  

[SPQR]

Just ran some numbers on Arizona, based on what's available.
Given what happened with the latest batch of votes reported from Maricopa, which went 59,5% for Trump (a 12,1% swing with respect to the Maricopa previous results), I tried to look what would happen if the same difference with respect to the prior vote occurred everywhere.
Answer: Trump would win by 15K votes.

This is a pretty "strict" hypothesis, nonetheless...it's really tight.

[Meclazine for Israel]

So uh...when exactly will we be off to the races this morning? PA said yesterday evening they'd be counting through the night but it doesn't look like they've actually done so?

Per Bob Casey, the Philly numbers will be dropping at noon.

And if those Philly numbers don't put Biden over the top, is there any hope left?

Yes.

GA, NV, AZ.

Biden does not actually need Pennsylvania.

It's only if you want to get to 306.

[wbrocks67]

What's going on in IL, NJ, NY, etc? It feels like they haven't updated since like Tuesday night lol

[wbrocks67]

So uh...when exactly will we be off to the races this morning? PA said yesterday evening they'd be counting through the night but it doesn't look like they've actually done so?

Per Bob Casey, the Philly numbers will be dropping at noon.

And if those Philly numbers don't put Biden over the top, is there any hope left?

Well, he's winning Mail ins by like 78% so yes. There is a large chunk of mail ins still to come from Bucks, Delaware, Lehigh, Erie, etc and at least 35K out in Allegheny.

[Astatine]

What is NC doing meanwhile? No change in 14 hours or so.

Not that I think Biden (and especially Cunningham) still have a good shot at winning, they're strong underdogs, but I don't want my hopes to remain kept up as long as it hasn't been called for Trump/Tillis.

[DaleCooper]

I was going to say, if those 400k votes are from SE Pennsylvania, with probably at least 120k from Philadelphia itself, then Biden should easily take close to 80% of those.

[wbrocks67]

Just ran some numbers on Arizona, based on what's available.
Given what happened with the latest batch of votes reported from Maricopa, which went 59,5% for Trump (a 12,1% swing with respect to the Maricopa previous results), I tried to look what would happen if the same difference with respect to the prior vote occurred everywhere.
Answer: Trump would win by 15K votes.

This is a pretty "strict" hypothesis, nonetheless...it's really tight.

the first batch went 59% Trump but wasn't the second 57%? And again, it appears those batches were expected to be more pro-Trump than the remaining batches.

[wbrocks67]

What is NC doing meanwhile? No change in 14 hours or so.

Not that I think Biden (and especially Cunningham) still have a good shot at winning, they're strong underdogs, but I don't want my hopes to remain kept up as long as it hasn't been called for Trump/Tillis.

Yeah, there's allegedly ~120K out in NC but it appears none of it has been counted yet. And who knows if that even accounts for any ballots coming in late.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Wait, is that the Philly numbers dropping at noon or all/most of the remaining ballots?

[DaleCooper]

Word on the street (or Twitter) is that Trump's numbers aren't encouraging in Arizona and if future batches of votes are less favorable then it won't look good for him. But there is still a chance he eeks out a win if everything goes right for him.

[NYSforKennedy2024]

Wait, is that the Philly numbers dropping at noon or all/most of the remaining ballots?

The impression I got from PA is that we're getting definitive state-wide #s at Noon.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Word on the street (or Twitter) is that Trump's numbers aren't encouraging in Arizona and if future batches of votes are less favorable then it won't look good for him. But there is still a chance he eeks out a win if everything goes right for him.

(I'm gonna be annoying from now until the end of the election and ask people to source what they're hearing.  Nothing personal! And I'm not doubting you! It just helps to have some verification).  

Who's saying this on Twitter, DC?

[Inmate Trump]

Just ran some numbers on Arizona, based on what's available.
Given what happened with the latest batch of votes reported from Maricopa, which went 59,5% for Trump (a 12,1% swing with respect to the Maricopa previous results), I tried to look what would happen if the same difference with respect to the prior vote occurred everywhere.
Answer: Trump would win by 15K votes.

This is a pretty "strict" hypothesis, nonetheless...it's really tight.

And if we lose Arizona and PA....then we most likely lose.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

NATHANIEL RAKICH
NOV. 5, 7:18 AM

Good morning, early birds! Overnight, both Georgia and Arizona tightened some but are still led by Trump and Biden, respectively. While we aren’t expecting to get our next update from Maricopa County in Arizona until 9 p.m. tonight, Georgia is expected to finish counting its remaining 25,000 ballots today. Elsewhere, Nevada will announce more results starting at noon Eastern, and we continue to get results at a steady pace in Pennsylvania — which may be Biden’s best chance to end this race.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1324334248229326849

[Panda Express]

So uh...when exactly will we be off to the races this morning? PA said yesterday evening they'd be counting through the night but it doesn't look like they've actually done so?

Per Bob Casey, the Philly numbers will be dropping at noon.

Nevada will be finishing at noon ET as well. Hopefully we can we finally get a call for the Election at that time

[SPQR]

Just ran some numbers on Arizona, based on what's available.
Given what happened with the latest batch of votes reported from Maricopa, which went 59,5% for Trump (a 12,1% swing with respect to the Maricopa previous results), I tried to look what would happen if the same difference with respect to the prior vote occurred everywhere.
Answer: Trump would win by 15K votes.

This is a pretty "strict" hypothesis, nonetheless...it's really tight.

the first batch went 59% Trump but wasn't the second 57%? And again, it appears those batches were expected to be more pro-Trump than the remaining batches.

I don't know, really. Was there any announcement about a specific kind of early vote being reported?

[DaleCooper]

Word on the street (or Twitter) is that Trump's numbers aren't encouraging in Arizona and if future batches of votes are less favorable then it won't look good for him. But there is still a chance he eeks out a win if everything goes right for him.

(I'm gonna be annoying from now until the end of the election and ask people to source what they're hearing.  Nothing personal! And I'm not doubting you! It just helps to have some verification).  

Who's saying this on Twitter, DC?

That's totally fair. I'm referring to a data analyst that was on the ground in Maricopa County and Harry Enten also said it on MSNBC, I think. Sadly I didn't save any links since I've been pretty obsessively bouncing from page to page trying to get information.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/stphnfwlr/status/1324330294950973440
Confirming that the Georgia issue is “counted vs reported” hope that clears stuff up

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/idoheartfailure/status/1324337181192839169?s=19

[pantsaregood]

Unless Pittsburgh and Philadelphia just flat out didn't vote, I'm not sure there's any way Trump CAN win PA. Trump won by 0.7% in 2016, but it looks like everything has shifted left in excess of 0.7% - with the exception of some small rural counties where no movement occurred. If the average trend in PA is several points towards Democrats (as it currently looks), this is over.

*This assumes that Democratic areas are not overwhelmed in turnout by Republican areas.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/idoheartfailure/status/1324337181192839169?s=19

The guy bringing in the votes from Mohave got cornered by a pack of coyotes.  

[California8429]

So uh...when exactly will we be off to the races this morning? PA said yesterday evening they'd be counting through the night but it doesn't look like they've actually done so?

Per Bob Casey, the Philly numbers will be dropping at noon.

Nevada will be finishing at noon ET as well. Hopefully we can we finally get a call for the Election at that time

Did they say they'd be done with all the ballots they currently have? I thought it was just ~one~ update.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/idoheartfailure/status/1324337181192839169?s=19

You get what you pay for

[andrewa]

Just ran some numbers on Arizona, based on what's available.
Given what happened with the latest batch of votes reported from Maricopa, which went 59,5% for Trump (a 12,1% swing with respect to the Maricopa previous results), I tried to look what would happen if the same difference with respect to the prior vote occurred everywhere.
Answer: Trump would win by 15K votes.

This is a pretty "strict" hypothesis, nonetheless...it's really tight.

Anyway, why the remaining batches from Maricopa must follow the trend of the 59,5% one, and not the Maricopa major trend 51-47 ?