2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[BigSerg]

Humor


https://twitter.com/vati109/status/1323978011964821504?s=19

[forsythvoter]

Think PA is going to end up around 50% - 48% Biden. I think heard 1.4M mail ballots in PA when I went to bed. If that's true and they go 80-20, Biden will net a 840K margin. Trump is ahead by 700K votes right now.

[Tender Branson]

Why did Deborah Jackson receive 7% in the GA-Sen. special ?

No pollster had her even at 1% ...

[wbrocks67]

Dave Wasserman has come out of his 'cave':

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1323976110510657539

I don't think polls will be trusted again anytime in the near future.

Clearly it is a combination of state-specific issues as well as polls struggling with presidential election years.

Yep. Aside from a few minor misses in 2018, the polls were really good that year. Who knows if it's a presidential year thing or a Trump thing. But even then, there's no way there is "shy" Republican voters for generic R candidates too.

[wbrocks67]

Think PA is going to end up around 50% - 48% Biden. I think heard 1.4M mail ballots in PA when I went to bed. If that's true and they go 80-20, Biden will net a 840K margin. Trump is ahead by 700K votes right now.

Only 600K now

[wbrocks67]

Why did Deborah Jackson receive 7% in the GA-Sen. special ?

No pollster had her even at 1% ...

MTE, WTF is that

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

So, Biden’s going to win WI and MI, isn’t he?

Yup. We're on the steady path to full communism. Trotsky-Bidenism will prevail.

[DaleCooper]

Not to turn this thread into a re-litigation of the polls, but I think a big part of it is that it's harder to reach people these days and get a representative sample.

[Tender Branson]

Why did Deborah Jackson receive 7% in the GA-Sen. special ?

No pollster had her even at 1% ...

MTE, WTF is that

MTE ?

[Person Man]

RIP polls: 1936-2020

Or there was a lot of fraud somewhere. Who knows. Maybe things will go back to normal with Trump out of the equation.

[Podgy the Bear]

I dumped 50€ on Trump ending up with between 240-269 EV on a betting site.

For a reward of 450€.

Hopefully Biden does NOT win GA !

Biden winning back the Blue Wall is just fine.

It could work if Biden wins GA, but Trump somehow holds onto PA.

I would also cash in if Trump somehow wins AZ+NV, but Biden GA.

You can rule the last one out.

How is Georgia looking to you, GM?

See forsythvoter's analysis up the page, which looks sound to me.  It's still very close but I'd put a thumb on the scale for Biden, if (and it's a big IF) the outstanding vote breaks as expected.

By "rule the last one out", I meant Tender's last combination of R-AZ, R-NV, D-GA.  Biden has AZ in the bag.

Biden has overperformed in Fulton (71%) and done as expected in DeKalb (82%).  Metro Atlanta has come through in a big way.  He needs about 65% of the outstanding vote to go his way, and I think he can do it.

[vitoNova]

Not to turn this thread into a re-litigation of the polls, but I think a big part of it is that it's harder to reach people these days and get a representative sample.

Republicans vote on white identity politics, and will never express this sentiment to a stranger over the phone.

[wbrocks67]

160K+ mails in left in Allegheny. And they broke 81-19 for Biden so far.

https://twitter.com/mattmp/status/1323960237108416512

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

CNN reminding us that PA features a "three-day grace period" for mail-in ballots to arrive post-Election Day.  (They'll undoubtedly be subjected to legal challenges, especially if the margin depends on them).  

[Inmate Trump]

Dave Wasserman has come out of his 'cave':

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1323976110510657539

I don't think polls will be trusted again anytime in the near future.

Clearly it is a combination of state-specific issues as well as polls struggling with presidential election years.

Yep. Aside from a few minor misses in 2018, the polls were really good that year. Who knows if it's a presidential year thing or a Trump thing. But even then, there's no way there is "shy" Republican voters for generic R candidates too.

Yea, I don't buy the "shy Trump voters" thing as being a reason the polls have gotten it wrong twice now.  But whether that's the case or not, I really doubt anyone's going to put much stock into any polls or pundit forecasts for some time.

[wbrocks67]

Wouldn't it be impossible to make up Trump's gap if there are only 600K mail ballots left?

Think PA is going to end up around 50% - 48% Biden. I think heard 1.4M mail ballots in PA when I went to bed. If that's true and they go 80-20, Biden will net a 840K margin. Trump is ahead by 700K votes right now.

Only 600K now

No, I mean Trumps lead is only 600 right now

[wbrocks67]

Although, polls seem to be good on Biden's favorability. He's at 52% in exits, and that sounds about right based on what we've seen. Biden was popular, but the electorate that came thru did not hate Trump as much as say, the 2018 crowd.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

The only good thing is that at least so far nothing has happened that would keep Trump from being laughed out of court if he tries to contest the VBM votes. Still, it is closer than I'd have liked and it looks more likely than not right now that Mitch will still be Majority Leader in the Senate. Which means no stimulus no matter who wins the White House and tomorrow will be brutal on Wall Street.

The only change is that the futures are up this morning, but those are often poor predictors for how the market does as they often get used as part of a hedging strategy, so I'll wait until the market opens to judge how well my market prediction holds.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Dave Wasserman has come out of his 'cave':

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1323976110510657539

I don't think polls will be trusted again anytime in the near future.

The entire polling industry should be either fired or set on fire, not sure which.

[forsythvoter]

The Cuban voters in Miami-Dade seem to think so apparently

So, Biden’s going to win WI and MI, isn’t he?

Yup. We're on the steady path to full communism. Trotsky-Bidenism will prevail.

[wbrocks67]

CNN reminding us that PA features a "three-day grace period" for mail-in ballots to arrive post-Election Day.  (They'll undoubtedly be subjected to legal challenges, especially if the margin depends on them).  

Yeah, this is going to be important, especially since anything that comes will likely skew very Dem.

[BlueSwan]

Dave Wasserman has come out of his 'cave':

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1323976110510657539

Yeah, district polls almost universally pointed towards a complete Biden landslide, usually showing double digit shifts from 2016. Crazy.

[Middle-aged Europe]

09:45 German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz has stressed the importance of a complete vote count in the US election.

"We should all insist that democratic elections take place in full," Scholz said before a meeting of EU finance ministers on Wednesday. "That means they'll be over when all the votes are counted."

He added that the US would remain an important partner for Germany and Europe regardless of who ultimately enters the White House.

The minister's comments came after Trump claimed electoral fraud and said he wanted to stop the counting of votes.

https://www.dw.com/en/us-election-results-live-updates-tight-race-between-trump-and-biden/a-55482489

President Trump has plunged the US into a “battle for the legitimacy” of the presidential election after his unfounded declaration of victory, Germany’s defence minister has said.

“This is a very explosive situation,” Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer told German broadcaster ZDF on Wednesday.

She said election experts had rightly warned of a "constitutional crisis” in the US should Trump dispute a potentially unfavourable result.

Earlier, Trump threatened to mount a legal challenge in the Supreme Court to stop legitimate ballots from being tallied in key swing states after election day.

But Kramp-Karrenbauer told ZDF that "this election has not been decided” because “votes are still being counted”.

...

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/election-us-2020-54786937

[DaleCooper]

CNN reminding us that PA features a "three-day grace period" for mail-in ballots to arrive post-Election Day.  (They'll undoubtedly be subjected to legal challenges, especially if the margin depends on them).  

Yeah, this is going to be important, especially since anything that comes will likely skew very Dem.

Are 1.4 million (give or take) absentee votes they're talking about all currently submitted, or does that include estimates of the 3-day grace period vote?

[forsythvoter]

Gotcha - well add 100k to Biden's margin then. 51-48%

Wouldn't it be impossible to make up Trump's gap if there are only 600K mail ballots left?

Think PA is going to end up around 50% - 48% Biden. I think heard 1.4M mail ballots in PA when I went to bed. If that's true and they go 80-20, Biden will net a 840K margin. Trump is ahead by 700K votes right now.

Only 600K now

No, I mean Trumps lead is only 600 right now