2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[lfromnj]

Maine senate is looking better than it was, hard not to consider it a tossup (again) now, right?

The most in County is Cumberland which is the most D one.

[wbrocks67]

From what the Philly City Commissioner is saying on CNN, I am starting to get slightly worried about both the city and the State.

Also, the city is now 350,000 - 105,000 with around 56%in
2016: 584,000 - 108,000

Right. That's about 455K counted now. Say it's exact turnout like 2016, that would be about 700K. That's still 250K more votes, and they most definitely lean Biden hard. The 65K batch last hour was Biden 94-6.

[Hnv1]

Wisconsin's is far too narrow for my liking...no more votes from either Milwaukee or Dane?

[Roronoa D. Law]

I'm more shocked about the house races tbh. It's almost as if the blue wave of 2018 didn't happen - where did all of those voters go? It's like they were mad and put Dems in charge and then totally reversed.

Or even Graham winning by 12 and Trump winning in South Carolina *more* than 2016? Like how?

I feel like rural black voters shifted R a lot more than urban/suburban black voters but gonna have to wait until precinct level maps are out to see. Myrtle Beach and Hilton Head are gaining lots of white olds who did not trend Biden as much as expected. Also Greenville-Spartanburg is a popular destination for those who want to move to the south but are also conservative, very different from Atlanta or Charlotte.

The margin should come down since not much out of Richland county.

[Podgy the Bear]

Big Wayne County vote drop in MI.  Trump margin down to 65K with 84% of vote in.

[Hindsight was 2020]

It’s hard to see how lopsided the mail in batch’s have been for Biden and not think he’s gonna win all of the big three

[philly09]

Trump is going to exceed his 2016 Philly total.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Thanks. Yeah, I know, Scandinavians in general should consider themselves lucky. But the USA is really freaking important, not just to Americans. :-)

But honestly, what you are saying is partly what got me through the 2016 election. I teach political science and psychology and honestly did not know if I could go on after that election. What got me through it was basically thinking that I am in an incredibly priviliged position, not just as a dane, but as an economically comfortable white male in a western country. I would not allow myself to sink into depression and decided that I could still accomplish some good through teaching.

Infact, just writing this nonsense is therapeutic, so bare with me. :-)

Political science and psychology, huh? You've got a difficult job for you.

Imagine how you're going to explain for your students, that after 4 years of Trump the minority swung heavily towards Trump, but Biden's ass was saved by old "economically comfortable white male in an incredibly privileged position"  

[SPQR]

From what the Philly City Commissioner is saying on CNN, I am starting to get slightly worried about both the city and the State.

Also, the city is now 350,000 - 105,000 with around 56%in
2016: 584,000 - 108,000

Right. That's about 455K counted now. Say it's exact turnout like 2016, that would be about 700K. That's still 250K more votes, and they most definitely lean Biden hard. The 65K batch last hour was Biden 94-6.

That's a 200K net gain.
He's down by 600K in PA.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Biden has extended his lead in WI to his greatest level so far.

The MI gap has dropped from 64,000 to 57,000 for Biden.

WI - Biden up by 11,034 (89% counted)

Of the remaining ~322,000 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 155,000 of them. (48.3%)

MI - Biden down by 57,300 (84% counted)

Of the remaining ~905,000 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 481,000 of them. (53.2%)

GA - Biden down by 102,134 (92% counted)

Of the remaining ~410,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 256,000 of them. (62.4%)

NC - Biden down by 76,737 (95% counted)

Of the remaining~ 283,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 180,000 of them. (63.5%)

PA - Biden down by 678,000 (74% counted)

Of the remaining ~1,867,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 1,272,000 of them. (67.7%)

Biden needs to win 2 of the above 5 states above and win NV to win the Presidency with an EC vote of 270 exactly.

[Splash]

Wisconsin's is far too narrow for my liking...no more votes from either Milwaukee or Dane?

The total doesn't include the 10K that Biden netted from the Kenosha absentees. I don't know why the county hasn't updated yet; it's been a couple of hours.

[n1240]

Ingham County just finished counting -

Recent dump:
 
Biden 29859
Trump 6916

Total:

Biden 94221 (65.2%)
Trump 47640 (33.3%)

Big improvement from Clinton 2016 and helps Biden inch closer to a likely victory in Michigan.

[Kalimantan]

No more results from NV until 11am EST Thursday.

This is unacceptable. There's no excuse to just not keep counting when sh**t is on the line like this.

Quite. But at least Biden has a narrow lead before the pause. If Trump was a 1000 votes up, even knowing that outstanding vote favoured Biden, there would all kinds of litigation. This way round can sleep easier

[wbrocks67]

From what the Philly City Commissioner is saying on CNN, I am starting to get slightly worried about both the city and the State.

Also, the city is now 350,000 - 105,000 with around 56%in
2016: 584,000 - 108,000

Right. That's about 455K counted now. Say it's exact turnout like 2016, that would be about 700K. That's still 250K more votes, and they most definitely lean Biden hard. The 65K batch last hour was Biden 94-6.

That's a 200K net gain.
He's down by 600K in PA.

Yes, and most of the entire mail/outstanding vote is Dem, especially in Allegheny + the suburbs.

[BlueSwan]

No more results from NV until 11am EST Thursday.

This is unacceptable. There's no excuse to just not keep counting when sh**t is on the line like this.

I agree put at least it puts the republicans in a conundrum. How are they going to argue that counting should stop in MI/PA, when they WANT counting to continue in NV where they are behind?

Well, I'm sure they'll try anyway the deplorable bastards.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/smirnoff_sprite/status/1323952071201165314
Case in point

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

WI still ahead for Biden.

BREAKING NEWS

MI gap just dropped from 200,000 to 64,000 for Biden.

WI - Biden up by 7,121 (89% counted)

Of the remaining ~398,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 195,000 of them. (49.1%)

MI - Biden down by 64520 (83% counted)

Of the remaining ~968,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 516,000 of them. (53.3%)

GA - Biden down by 102,134 (92% counted)

Of the remaining ~410,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 256,000 of them. (62.4%)

NC - Biden down by 76,737 (95% counted)

Of the remaining~ 283,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 180,000 of them. (63.5%)

PA - Biden down by 678,000 (74% counted)

Of the remaining ~1,867,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 1,272,000 of them. (67.7%)

Biden needs to win 2 of the above 5 states to win the Presidency. Based on what I have been looking at it would appear that Biden is going to win the Presidency by the Hawaii margin, where Barack Obama was born.

Much thanks for continuing to update us on these figures.
On that note, I'll hit the hay. I want to be awake when PA, MI, and NV are called.

[Badger]

So I realize it's probably too early to tell, but for the information we have this far is this largely a repeat up 2016 where polls orc wrong necessarily, but rather undecideds broke overwhelmingly for Trump? The difference here of course being that whereas Hillary was in the high forties both nationally and in crucial swing States, Biden was right about 50% which allowed him to squeak out narrow wins in the EV?

[Pick Up the Phone]

WI still ahead for Biden.

BREAKING NEWS

MI gap just dropped from 200,000 to 64,000 for Biden.

WI - Biden up by 7,121 (89% counted)

Of the remaining ~398,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 195,000 of them. (49.1%)

MI - Biden down by 64520 (83% counted)

Of the remaining ~968,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 516,000 of them. (53.3%)

GA - Biden down by 102,134 (92% counted)

Of the remaining ~410,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 256,000 of them. (62.4%)

NC - Biden down by 76,737 (95% counted)

Of the remaining~ 283,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 180,000 of them. (63.5%)

PA - Biden down by 678,000 (74% counted)

Of the remaining ~1,867,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 1,272,000 of them. (67.7%)

Biden needs to win 2 of the above 5 states to win the Presidency.

Okay, seriously, you cannot tell me that Biden is losing WI or MI with these numbers/margins. And if nothing completely unexpected happens in NV, he will win this thing. The Trump nightmare is about to end.

[Silent Hunter]

It's not ending until 20 January.

[Meclazine for Israel]

WI still ahead for Biden.

BREAKING NEWS

MI gap just dropped from 200,000 to 64,000 for Biden.

WI - Biden up by 7,121 (89% counted)

Of the remaining ~398,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 195,000 of them. (49.1%)

MI - Biden down by 64520 (83% counted)

Of the remaining ~968,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 516,000 of them. (53.3%)

GA - Biden down by 102,134 (92% counted)

Of the remaining ~410,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 256,000 of them. (62.4%)

NC - Biden down by 76,737 (95% counted)

Of the remaining~ 283,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 180,000 of them. (63.5%)

PA - Biden down by 678,000 (74% counted)

Of the remaining ~1,867,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 1,272,000 of them. (67.7%)

Biden needs to win 2 of the above 5 states to win the Presidency.

Okay, seriously, you cannot tell me that Biden is losing WI or MI with these numbers/margins. And if nothing completely unexpected happens in NV, he will win this thing. The Trump nightmare is about to end.

As we saw with Al Gore, when we go to Court, it is better to be in front, and Joe Biden is hitting the front in the next 2-4 hours.

Biden is tracking for a win.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1323949799738085378

Yup.  Per NYT, Trump's lead now down to 64,520.  

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

So I realize it's probably too early to tell, but for the information we have this far is this largely a repeat up 2016 where polls orc wrong necessarily, but rather undecideds broke overwhelmingly for Trump? The difference here of course being that whereas Hillary was in the high forties both nationally and in crucial swing States, Biden was right about 50% which allowed him to squeak out narrow wins in the EV?

Nate had a point where he suggested that a significant amount of what happened could be explained as "Biden could survive a 2016-style polling error while Hillary couldn't". Not saying that it's locked in stone that we have a 2020 polling error of such a type or even a major uniform polling error at all; but rather, the size and consistency of Biden's polling lead allows him to have the luxury of not relying on a narrow path alone for victory.

[Kalimantan]

I'm more shocked about the house races tbh. It's almost as if the blue wave of 2018 didn't happen - where did all of those voters go? It's like they were mad and put Dems in charge and then totally reversed.

Or even Graham winning by 12 and Trump winning in South Carolina *more* than 2016? Like how?

Well I suppose that just like everywhere we're focused on, states like SC also have a sizeable VBM vote to count which will tighten the margins

[Silent Hunter]

Biden is at 50.1% of the popular vote and with a fair amount out on the solid blue West Coast, he could easily clear 51%.