2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Winnebago County has voted for the winner in every presidential election since 1992. That streak is more likely that not to be broken tonight.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Are we at a relative stand-still in AZ?

Is AZ not safe it seems like it’s tightening fast

It was called a long time ago.

[Alben Barkley]

Cohn seems to think Biden is likely to win PA:

https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/1323920753901903873?s=21

[Adam Griffin]

Thank you, Southron Appalachian Whites! Very Cool!

Pretty Cool... can you just explain what we are looking at exactly by %?

Swing map from '16?

Yep!

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Are we at a relative stand-still in AZ?

Is AZ not safe it seems like it’s tightening fast

It was called a long time ago.

Ah, just saw the AP article, thanks jfern!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Are we at a relative stand-still in AZ?

Is AZ not safe it seems like it’s tightening fast

It was called a long time ago.

It would seem that they are mainly counting ED votes. And that's why it's tightening. Biden votes got front-loaded.

[Alben Barkley]

Florida is really the shocker of the night. I mean, I could have seen Trump winning it, but not by this much. Especially Miami-Dade. I wonder whether Bernie would have lost the county? If he was the nominee, he would have gotten destroyed in the state, even if he won the election as a whole.

It’s best to just not let yourself be surprised by Florida ever for any reason. I learned that the hard way.

[Tender Branson]

Have now included NC.

WI - Biden up by 8,789 (89% counted)

Of the remaining 389,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 190,400 of them. (48.8%)

MI - Biden down by 229,500 (78% counted)

Of the remaining 1,218,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 724,024 of them. (59.4%)

GA - Biden down by 102,134 (92% counted)

Of the remaining 406,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 254,000 of them. (62.6%)

NC - Biden down by 76,737 (95% counted)

Of the remaining 283,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 180,000 of them. (63.5%)

PA - Biden down by 677,988 (74% counted)

Of the remaining 1,850,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 1,257,000 of them. (67.8%)

Biden needs to win 2 of the above 5 scenarios to win. One more state in addition to WI, and he will be elected as POTUS.

What's the source for "remaining" votes ?

[musicblind]

Many of y'all appear to be forgetting the concept of the "Red Mirage".

PA, WI, and MI are the exact reverse of that, where once again DEM Cities in Swing States in the Midwest are the last to turn out the vote.

Keep Calm, don't panic, fundamental numbers look good in all three States (Plus we got AZ and NE-02 and possibly GA & NC as backups).

Work Swing Shift West Coast, so nowhere close to crash yet tonight.

Is NC not already gone?

NC is PROBABLY gone, but there's a not-insignificant chance that Biden pulls out a squeaker there. NYT's needle gives Trump an 86% chance at the moment.

[The3rdParty]

Are we at a relative stand-still in AZ?

Is AZ not safe it seems like it’s tightening fast

It was called a long time ago.

It would seem that they are mainly counting ED votes. And that's why it's tightening. Biden votes got front-loaded.

I think they might’ve called it too quick

[Inmate Trump]

Why are the remaining states so slow to count right now?  And is there any timeframe on when they’ll resume?

[VBM]

Florida is really the shocker of the night. I mean, I could have seen Trump winning it, but not by this much. Especially Miami-Dade. I wonder whether Bernie would have lost the county? If he was the nominee, he would have gotten destroyed in the state, even if he won the election as a whole.

Bernie wouldn’t have done worse than Biden here. Cuban Americans fell for the nonsense that Biden is a socialist because a lot of them are bitter, deplorable people who will do anything to spite Castro, in this case voting against the guy who was accused of being a socialist despite being the arch nemesis of the “socialist” Bernie Sanders in the primaries. Anyone who was voting against the socialism label would vote against either Bernie or Biden.

[It's not just that you are a crook senator]

Will Gary Peters also win?

[Panda Express]

Biden might end up winning Wisconsin by 2-3 points when this is all said and done

[Alben Barkley]

Are we at a relative stand-still in AZ?

Is AZ not safe it seems like it’s tightening fast

It was called a long time ago.

It would seem that they are mainly counting ED votes. And that's why it's tightening. Biden votes got front-loaded.

I think they might’ve called it too quick

Nah, the votes are not there for Trump to win.

[Hammy]

Why are the remaining states so slow to count right now?  And is there any timeframe on when they’ll resume?

PA has laws that prevent immediate counting or processing of early/mail votes, not sure about Michigan.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Will Gary Peters also win?

I think so.

[SunSt0rm]

Biden is only leading by 9k in Nevada now

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/reidepstein/status/1323926165590052864

What's the worst case scenario in regards to how Green Bay votes?

IDK... but here are a few numbers I ran a few Months back in the largest Cities in Wisconsin.

[gf20202]

NV ended up being way closer than it should have been. Biden only up 9k before the final vote drop in Clark that *should* help him but you never know.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Are we at a relative stand-still in AZ?

Is AZ not safe it seems like it’s tightening fast

It was called a long time ago.

It would seem that they are mainly counting ED votes. And that's why it's tightening. Biden votes got front-loaded.

I think they might’ve called it too quick

They might have. But Biden's lead in the front-loaded non-ED vote was quite strong, and a majority of votes cast in this election were non-ED. So people came to the sensible conclusion that Biden's lead was so overwhelming that it difficult for him to actually lose the state.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Thank you, Southron Appalachian Whites! Very Cool!

Pretty Cool... can you just explain what we are looking at exactly by %?

Swing map from '16?

Yep!

Dahlonega Joe!

[Alben Barkley]

We had an issue with the printer on one of our machines too...I was stuck at the precinct for an extra hour because I had to sign *one* receipt that wouldn’t print.

America’s election infrastructure remains terrible.

Why are absentee ballots being the last to be counted despite being the first to be received?

It looks incredibly suspicious that votes are suddenly materializing but only once they already knew what Trumps lead was from the people who turned up in person to vote.

Oh god this is gonna be the conspiracy theory isn’t it?

[DaleCooper]

I was a bit uneasy about Fox's projection of Arizona but after they defended it and the AP projected it, I'm confident that they're certain Biden won there.

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1323924517140443136