2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread
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Author Topic: 2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread  (Read 640884 times)
Pick Up the Phone
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« Reply #5200 on: November 04, 2020, 04:38:45 AM »
Quote from: Alben Barkley on November 04, 2020, 04:35:46 AM
I’ve seen enough: Biden wins WI the presidency.
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politics_king
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« Reply #5201 on: November 04, 2020, 04:38:50 AM »

Go to DDHQ, they have Biden up by a little over 2,000 votes. Trump is definitely taking it to court if Biden wins the election.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #5202 on: November 04, 2020, 04:39:06 AM »
Now Biden has a meaningful lead in WI.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #5203 on: November 04, 2020, 04:39:12 AM »
Well it’s not a 17 point win but I’ll take it.
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jfern
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« Reply #5204 on: November 04, 2020, 04:39:50 AM »
Biden now up 19k in WI on DDHQ.
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Splash
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« Reply #5205 on: November 04, 2020, 04:39:59 AM »
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Shaula🏳️‍⚧️
The Pieman
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« Reply #5206 on: November 04, 2020, 04:40:14 AM »
What are the chances of a Trump win now?
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #5207 on: November 04, 2020, 04:40:18 AM »
1976-esque
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politics_king
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« Reply #5208 on: November 04, 2020, 04:40:26 AM »
Holy crap. If Biden can take Michigan, Pennsylvania and Georgia. That'll put me at ease too.
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #5209 on: November 04, 2020, 04:40:42 AM »
Quote from: Storr on November 04, 2020, 04:34:07 AM
Quote from: Alben Barkley on November 04, 2020, 04:33:14 AM
Biden has taken the lead in Wisconsin according to DDHQ.
I just checked, you're right! *internalized screaming*

1,551,268  49.29% Biden

1,549,127  49.22% Trump
Oh my God, do I dare getting my hopes up?
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Storr
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« Reply #5210 on: November 04, 2020, 04:41:09 AM »
Let's hope Joe is a more popular President than Jimmy.
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jfern
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« Reply #5211 on: November 04, 2020, 04:41:20 AM »

Biden up 9k on Fox with higher vote totals.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #5212 on: November 04, 2020, 04:41:33 AM »
Quote from: The Pieman on November 04, 2020, 04:40:14 AM
What are the chances of a Trump win now?

Well, Trump is now the one who has to sweep.  But it's still a serious possibility until we've heard from Michigan or Georgia and confirmed that Arizona holds.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #5213 on: November 04, 2020, 04:41:34 AM »
One underrated factor in Biden leading in WI is Trump losing support in places like Winnebago County. It voted 49-42 Trump in 2016, but that margin has shrunk to 51-47 this time.
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HagridOfTheDeep
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« Reply #5214 on: November 04, 2020, 04:41:39 AM »
Quote from: The Pieman on November 04, 2020, 04:40:14 AM
What are the chances of a Trump win now?

Hard to say, but less than 50% if you trust the New York Times saying Biden is currently favoured in Georgia.
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Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.
diskymike44
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« Reply #5215 on: November 04, 2020, 04:42:03 AM »
It’s like a reverse 2016 except Biden wins.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #5216 on: November 04, 2020, 04:43:07 AM »
Quote from: Buh her emails! on November 04, 2020, 04:42:03 AM
It’s like a reverse 2016 except Biden wins.

It would be at least some poetic justice for all that's happened.
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Storr
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« Reply #5217 on: November 04, 2020, 04:43:18 AM »
« Edited: November 04, 2020, 04:48:10 AM by Storr »
Quote from: HagridOfTheDeep on November 04, 2020, 04:41:39 AM
Quote from: The Pieman on November 04, 2020, 04:40:14 AM
What are the chances of a Trump win now?

Hard to say, but less than 50% if you trust the New York Times saying Biden is currently favoured in Georgia.
The fact almost all of Michigan's outstanding vote is in metro Detroit really lowers Trump's probability in my mind
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #5218 on: November 04, 2020, 04:44:06 AM »

Especially if he wins Georgia! I’ll give Jimmy Carter all the credit if that happens.
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politics_king
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« Reply #5219 on: November 04, 2020, 04:44:14 AM »
Biden pulls this victory off. Some posters are going to be maaaaaddd tomorrow.
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forsythvoter
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« Reply #5220 on: November 04, 2020, 04:44:20 AM »
Lol, one of my friends woke my wife and me up screaming that Biden won WI and now here I am. It does look like WI is going to Biden by ~1%. Congrats, team blue.

MI and GA also looking good for Biden given outstanding votes. PA really just depends on how D the mail-ins really are.
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Gren
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« Reply #5221 on: November 04, 2020, 04:44:37 AM »
Quote from: Gren on November 04, 2020, 04:03:30 AM
I think Biden will win Wisconsin. Why are people not looking at the swings in the counties that are almost 100% reporting?

Dane has a 6-point swing towards the Democrats.
Ozaukee has a 7-point swing towards the Democrats.
Waukesha has a 6-point swing towards the Democrats, and I would expect it to become a little bit larger  because there's a chunk of uncounted absentee vote.
Eau Claire has a 3-point swing towards the Democrats.
Racine has a 1-point swing towards the Democrats.
St Croix has a 2-point swing towards the Democrats.

Up north, Douglas has a 2-point swing, Bayfield a 5-point swing, Ashland is staying pretty much the same.

I appreciate that the swings are mixed elsewhere in the state, but the aforementioned counties put together have a large population. Wisconsin only needs a swing of less than 1 percent to flip.

If Biden doesn't underperform horribly in Milwaukee and Kenosha, I think he's winning.

So, 4 point swing to Biden in Milwaukee. Pretty much what I was expecting, given the swings elsewhere. Those who questioned my logic... well, is pure and simple math. One must compare apples to apples, so looking at +98% reporting counties and comparing them to 2016 makes perfect sense. Comparing counties with incomplete results (especially in this election, where patterns vary so much between voting methods) to 2016 is nonsensical.
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Florida Man for Crime
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« Reply #5222 on: November 04, 2020, 04:44:43 AM »
BIDEN PULLS AHEAD IN WI THANK YOU MILWAUKEE
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Hope For A New Era
EastOfEden
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« Reply #5223 on: November 04, 2020, 04:44:51 AM »
Quote from: Arch on November 04, 2020, 04:43:07 AM
Quote from: Buh her emails! on November 04, 2020, 04:42:03 AM
It’s like a reverse 2016 except Biden wins.

It would be at least some poetic justice for all that's happened.

Watch it literally go 306-232 now

Quote from: Alben Barkley on November 04, 2020, 04:44:06 AM

Especially if he wins Georgia! I’ll give Jimmy Carter all the credit if that happens.

We Purple heart Jimmy
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Storr
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« Reply #5224 on: November 04, 2020, 04:45:27 AM »
VERY COOL
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