2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Bootes Void]

Biden has a 200k lead in Fulton with 80% reporting. if the rest goes his way, he will get 50k atleast from this that would cut into Trump lead of 100k, assuming it holds of course

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1323896943618260992

So not quite 75% needed.

Wait....there’s only 270k votes left in Philly?  It seems like it should be more like 400k from the reporting % being listed.  If it really is only 270k, that would be bad news for Biden, and also a significant turnout drop from 2016.

I'm guessing there's more election day vote from philly?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I'm going to bed now like John King. I might be back here at 7 or 8 am Eastern after I see some more votes get counted. I've definitely been going on a bit of a posting rampage with 67 posts in the last 24 hours. See you tomorrow.

Sleep well. You'll need it.

[Storr]

Biden has a 200k lead in Fulton with 80% reporting. if the rest goes his way, he will get 50k atleast from this that would cut into Trump lead of 100k, assuming it holds of course

DeKalb also has 80% reporting, not sure how many Biden should/might get...late night math is hard.

[forsythvoter]

Update: It looks like a few more votes have come in and I've rerun the analysis for ALL GA counties with 3% or more of the vote outstanding.

Trump's lead: 102K
Vote count in counties with more than 3% of vote outstanding: Biden 1,494K-854K (640K lead)
Vote count in these counties if remaining votes vote the same way as existing ballots: Biden by 1,766K-988K (778K lead)

Estimated outcome: Biden + 36K once all votes are in (in line with the NYT needle).

So Biden's would net 138K from the remaining outstanding ballots if they vote the same way as existing ballots. We know that about 100K Fulton mail-ins are part of this group, but not sure about the other counties.

I extrapolated the numbers out of metro ATL based on existing vote patterns. If Biden replicates the existing vote totals in the remaining estimated ballots, he'll net about 150K more votes out of metro ATL. Trump currently leads by 118K votes in GA.

There are a few more votes out in Chatham (Biden 56%), Muscogee (Biden 59%), and some black belt counties that could add a few thousand more votes to Biden.

No idea if the remaining votes will follow the existing votes but we do know Fulton mail-ins are still out. I would expect that vote to go even more D than the non-mail in votes. Not sure about the other counties.

[NOVA Green]

I'm going to bed now like John King. I might be back here at 7 or 8 am Eastern after I see some more votes get counted. I've definitely been going on a bit of a posting rampage with 67 posts in the last 24 hours. See you tomorrow.

You will miss the election called for Biden while you sleep...

We can all celebrate Tomorrow!!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1323896943618260992

So not quite 75% needed.

Wait....there’s only 270k votes left in Philly?  It seems like it should be more like 400k from the reporting % being listed.  If it really is only 270k, that would be bad news for Biden, and also a significant turnout drop from 2016.

I'm guessing there's more election day vote from philly?

That's the most likely explanation I guess.

[Admiral Kizaru]

It's almost 3:30 and Trump is leading in every uncalled state other than Nevada.

CALL THE DAMN ELECTION ALREADY

"PLS PLS I need to be right"

Can you like shut up lol. Even if you're right nobody needs to see 10 different posts demanding why Wisconsin hasn't been called yet

This so much! Can the mods ban that account already?

He's done it the whole night - so annoying. Just screaming doomy things in CAPS and providing no actual quality or thought in his posts.

I usually just lurk but I had to log in just to reply to your post and to ignore that account now.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Goddamn Georgia is going to be insanely close.

[Skill and Chance]

Noticeable Biden improvement in Wisconsin just now.

[pppolitics]

Noticeable Biden improvement in Wisconsin just now.

I am not seeing anything

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

If North Carolina is 100% reporting, why hasn't it been called?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump is gonna win WI, MI and PA

[Storr]

Noticeable Biden improvement in Wisconsin just now.

I am not seeing anything

Trump below 51% and as you'd expect Milwaukee bumped up to 48% reporting (from 43%).

[Storr]

If North Carolina is 100% reporting, why hasn't it been called?

It's not? CNN says it's 95%.

[gf20202]

If North Carolina is 100% reporting, why hasn't it been called?

Where are you seeing 100%? Everywhere I see says 95%.

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

AP is saying 100% of NC is reporting.

[Meclazine for Israel]

WI - Biden down by 108,000 (83% counted)

Of the remaining 647,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 377,000 of them. (58.3%)

MI - Biden down by 308,422 (72% counted)

Of the remaining 1,563,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 936,000 of them. (59.9%)

GA - Biden down by 102,134 (92% counted)

Of the remaining 406,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 254,000 of them. (62.6%)

Biden needs to win 2 of the above 3 scenarios to win.

Have called PA for Trump and NV for Biden.

[Alben Barkley]

WI - Biden down by 118,000 (83% counted)

Of the remaining 639,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 379,000 of them. (59.2%)

MI - Biden down by 308,422 (72% counted)

Of the remaining 1,563,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 936,000 of them. (59.9%)

GA - Biden down by 102,134 (92% counted)

Of the remaining 406,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 254,000 of them. (62.6%)

Biden needs to win 2 of the above 3 scenarios to win.

Have called PA for Trump and NV for Biden.

IDK if you’re right about PA, but all of that seems feasible.

[politics_king]

WI - Biden down by 118,000 (83% counted)

Of the remaining 639,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 379,000 of them. (59.2%)

MI - Biden down by 308,422 (72% counted)

Of the remaining 1,563,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 936,000 of them. (59.9%)

GA - Biden down by 102,134 (92% counted)

Of the remaining 406,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 254,000 of them. (62.6%)

Biden needs to win 2 of the above 3 scenarios to win.

Have called PA for Trump and NV for Biden.

It's possible but it's going to be razor thin. This will definitely go to the courts.

[Bootes Void]

WI - Biden down by 118,000 (83% counted)

Of the remaining 639,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 379,000 of them. (59.2%)

MI - Biden down by 308,422 (72% counted)

Of the remaining 1,563,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 936,000 of them. (59.9%)

GA - Biden down by 102,134 (92% counted)

Of the remaining 406,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 254,000 of them. (62.6%)

Biden needs to win 2 of the above 3 scenarios to win.

Have called PA for Trump and NV for Biden.

Are you sure you think Pa is for Trump?

[gf20202]

AP is saying 100% of NC is reporting.

Could you please provide a link to that? I am looking at site fed by the AP and it says 95%.

[Angasboy15]

WI - Biden down by 118,000 (83% counted)

Of the remaining 639,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 379,000 of them. (59.2%)

MI - Biden down by 308,422 (72% counted)

Of the remaining 1,563,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 936,000 of them. (59.9%)

GA - Biden down by 102,134 (92% counted)

Of the remaining 406,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 254,000 of them. (62.6%)

Biden needs to win 2 of the above 3 scenarios to win.

Have called PA for Trump and NV for Biden.

Sounds like the kind of vote shares Biden would be projected to get.

[BudgieForce]

I know no one is gonna read this but, supposedly the city of Milwaukee has 169,000 outstanding votes. Milwaukee county has about 40,000 outstanding votes.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

I'm going to bed. I still think Trump wins Wisconsin and probably Pennsylvania too. Michigan could go either way depending on how late votes go (Michigan is complicated because the mail in vote will be more Republican than usual, but traditionally the Democratic votes come later regardless) but John James is running just far ahead enough of Trump that I'd say he's favoured to win the Senate seat. Georgia could flip if the stars align but frankly I doubt it. If "projected votes" meant anything Biden would have won North Carolina too. It would be a pretty hilarious map if Biden wins Georgia and Arizona but loses Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, though. Kind of the ultimate "realignment" map.

Relax everyone!