2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Hassan 2022]

F**k this election.

[Santander]

"They looked down their nose at you and me a long time. They called us rednecks. Well we're gonna show, there sure are a lot of rednecks in this country."

[It’s so Joever]

Crazy Forumlurker, Biden will win in a landslide.

[͘]

Oh no, this thread is going through the Stages of grief.

[politics_king]

I think we're going to come up just short but hold onto the Senate.

For several hours tonight, I really thought Trump was going to pull it out for the first time in months.

I really think the Georgia Special election is going to be the tiebreaker for the Senate.

[Agonized-Statism]

I wonder what will come of Puerto Rican statehood if Trump wins. Most people here assumed they would be admitted under a Biden administration.

[GoTfan]

https://twitter.com/philipaklein/status/1323878083716435968

Bad news for Biden.

[forsythvoter]

I extrapolated the numbers out of metro ATL based on existing vote patterns. If Biden replicates the existing vote totals in the remaining estimated ballots, he'll net about 150K more votes out of metro ATL. Trump currently leads by 118K votes in GA.

There are a few more votes out in Chatham (Biden 56%), Muscogee (Biden 59%), and some black belt counties that could add a few thousand more votes to Biden.

No idea if the remaining votes will follow the existing votes but we do know Fulton mail-ins are still out. I would expect that vote to go even more D than the non-mail in votes. Not sure about the other counties.

[Storr]

I wonder what will come of Puerto Rican statehood if Trump wins. Most people here assumed they would be admitted under a Biden administration.

He's said several times he's against it.

[Bootes Void]

https://twitter.com/philipaklein/status/1323878083716435968

How much vote are we looking at out of Wisconsin?

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

Trump is going to win. He's leading in every uncalled state other than NV, AZ, and Maine.

[Angasboy15]

The Wisconsin mail drop is the moment of truth for Biden's reelection chances IMO. If it looks bad there it bodes terribly for Pennslyvania.

I'm optimistic. Extrapolating the Milwaukee vote share, Biden should cut the margin by at least 80000, and that's not even accounting for the fact many (most?) of these are absentee.

[Calthrina950]

Peterson’s lost.

As expected. Peterson, Shalala, Mucrasel-Powell, Horn, Finkenauer, Torres-Small...all have lost reelection. And Cunningham looks like he is in trouble as well. How is Jared Golden faring?

I'm repeating this question, especially since Biden is "only" up by 7% in Maine and Susan Collins is holding her own against Gideon before RCV.

[Santander]

I wonder what will come of Puerto Rican statehood if Trump wins. Most people here assumed they would be admitted under a Biden administration.

The fact that Atlas was even discussing admitting new states under a Biden administration says everything you need to know about the quality of #analysis here.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I extrapolated the numbers out of metro ATL based on existing vote patterns. If Biden replicates the existing vote totals in the remaining estimated ballots, he'll net about 150K more votes out of metro ATL. Trump currently leads by 118K votes in GA.

There are a few more votes out in Chatham (Biden 56%), Muscogee (Biden 59%), and some black belt counties that could add a few thousand more votes to Biden.

No idea if the remaining votes will follow the existing votes but we do know Fulton mail-ins are still out. I would expect that vote to go even more D than the non-mail in votes. Not sure about the other counties.

Thanks for doing the lord's work.
This makes me more confident in my prediction Biden would win GA.

[RI]

MT called for Daines

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Trump is going to win. He's leading in every uncalled state other than NV, AZ, and Maine.

AZ and ME (except ME-02) were called for Biden already.

[Rep Jessica]

How the F#CK do you look at the last four years, and especially this year, and say "yeah i want more of this"

Honestly, there are some things that we won't be able to understand even if we have the best empirical knowledge.

I've discovered this about humans. It's partly why I'm majoring in psychology.

The democratic party lost when they started  accusing people of stuff(racist, sexist, etc) and doubled down on the lost when they got violent. Focus on real economic solutions that help people and you may well have a break through. Most people hate the sjw whining and hate having to live in fear of some thug kicking their head in.

[Alben Barkley]

Trump is going to win. He's leading in every uncalled state other than NV, AZ, and Maine.

That’s irrelevant. What matters is what vote has been reported and what hasn’t.

[justfollowingtheelections]

Trump is going to win. He's leading in every uncalled state other than NV, AZ, and Maine.

LOL he could win obviously, but the fact that he's leading isn't enough reason to believe he will.

[charcuterie]

Peterson’s lost.

As expected. Peterson, Shalala, Mucrasel-Powell, Horn, Finkenauer, Torres-Small...all have lost reelection. And Cunningham looks like he is in trouble as well. How is Jared Golden faring?

I'm repeating this question, especially since Biden is "only" up by 7% in Maine and Susan Collins is holding her own against Gideon before RCV.

Looks like he's up by about ~6% right now with ~50%, so not safe but looking okay for now.

[Angasboy15]

When is the big Milwaukee absentee drop happening? This would go a long way to calming my nerves.

Around 5:00 AM, maybe a bit earlier.

Thanks.

[Zanas]

Peterson’s lost.

As expected. Peterson, Shalala, Mucrasel-Powell, Horn, Finkenauer, Torres-Small...all have lost reelection. And Cunningham looks like he is in trouble as well. How is Jared Golden faring?

I'm repeating this question, especially since Biden is "only" up by 7% in Maine and Susan Collins is holding her own against Gideon before RCV.

Golden is up 53-46 for now, with 51% in

[GALeftist]

K friends imma sleep now but before I go a few thoughts:

1. Not the anticipated D wave election on the presidential level by a long shot but probably still a win for Biden. He's probably favored in AZ, WI, NV, and MI and that's all he needs. The fact that Trump still can't count on Georgia (an unexpected bright-ish spot for Dems) and (to a much lesser extent) North Carolina doesn't help either.

2. Legislative humiliation. I'm not sure if the Democrats will net lose seats in the House or not but they certainly aren't picking up an appreciable number as of my writing this. In the Senate, the Democrats are having to claw their way to Susan Collins's seat, which should tell you all you need to know. Once again, I think Georgia might be an unexpected bright-ish spot, but this is a straight up bad performance.

3. I seriously never want to hear another electability case again. Twice in a row we've nominated these ostensibly electable moderates who clearly energize no one after the party put its thumb on the scale, and twice in a row we've been burned. I said this before, but in 2016 Bernie performed well among WWC in the Rust Belt who Clinton lost and in 2020 Bernie performed well among Hispanics who, honestly, Biden might have lost absent COVID. This is just atrocious. All of the states Biden was supposed to lock down were either always going D (Arizona) or always going R (Florida, Ohio, etc.) and a progressive might have actually done better in states like Texas, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Nevada. Suffice it to say, barring a real risk of like nuclear war or something, I will not be voting for non-progressive Democrats for president for the foreseeable future, and I encourage any other progressives or even moderates who want to see the party actually win to take a similar pledge. I'm still going to vote and cure ballots for Warnock (and Ossoff if he gets to a runoff), but frankly downballot Dems are running out of goodwill as well.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/philipaklein/status/1323878083716435968

How much vote are we looking at out of Wisconsin?

41% of Milwaukee is in, and in 2012 Obama's (the last time a national Democrat won the state) margin there was 177,514. So hopefully >100k.