IA-Selzer: Trump +7

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Wait, is Trump really leading the youth vote in this poll?

It's a heavily white midwestern state, of course he is.

Stop it. Hillary won the youth vote in Iowa in 2016. There is no way that Trump is winning it this year against Biden.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

The other thing this suggests to me is that if Dems do nonetheless win a trifecta in 2020, after taking care of the immediate/necessary COVID relief legislation etc, when they eventually start on policy legislation the first order of business should probably be immigration reform. Winning the sunbelt in the future is going to be very important for Dems in future elections, and so it is time to try and lock in more Hispanic support, and get more people on the pathway to citizenship and eventually voting in those sunbelt states (most importantly, Texas).

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I am in utter disbelief at all these Georgia developments. It turns out that something might be going on in the Peach state and that previous Civitas poll wasn't much of an outlier.

We have been saying this for years, 2018 was confirmation of it though some people took it the opposite way.

The Sunbelt GOP is like Venice, sinking inch by inch as Boomer/Late Silent Whites die off and are displaced by far less Republican Millennials and Zoomers. 

Meanwhile the GA Democratic Party is not a wave, its sea level rise. 2020 is just the tsunami to push the process along faster.

Trump accelerated this dynamic by angering the very people that buttered the GOP's bread for decades, high end, high educated suburbanites. That was before Covid even. According to Survey USA, 77% of Georgian Suburbanites support the mask at least on the state level, the same mask Trump was mocking Biden for wearing.

Applies to Republicans just as much in IA and OH as it does for Ds in GA and TX.

[Splash]

MELTDOWN ALERT:

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1322700885189951490

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1322703185434337283

[libertpaulian]

Very distressing. Seeing what Republicans are doing in Texas and beyond to suppress the vote, I don't understand how anyone can vote for them. This is not going to end very well.

Because nobody in their right mind wants Biden lockdowns, taxes and recession.

Biden's economic plan would create more jobs than Trump's.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

When it comes to seniors, remember that the Farm Crisis, would still be something on their minds especially with the impact of the trade war, so them voting Democrat while the rest of the electorate doesn't is actually something that makes sense for a state that was Democratic leaning from 1988-2012.

[Lief 🗽]

Greenfield and/or Biden need to release their statewide internals TONIGHT to rebut this. If they don’t, the next 48 hours are going to be a disaster.

[emailking]

12 pages in an hour and a half? He doesn't even need Iowa and was only going to get it if he's getting things like FL and NC. The Senate result is bad I guess.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Greenfield and/or Biden need to release their statewide internals TONIGHT to rebut this. If they don’t, the next 48 hours are going to be a disaster.

I think people freaking out on message boards is a low priority for them.

Remember candidates actually like bad polls since it lets them rally people.

[Pericles]

Greenfield and/or Biden need to release their statewide internals TONIGHT to rebut this. If they don’t, the next 48 hours are going to be a disaster.

Democrats being panicked is brilliant for the Biden campaign. Let everyone think it's a pure tossup election.

[Storr]

Oct 26-29
814 likely voters
MoE: 3.4%
Changes with Sep 14-17

Trump 48% (+1)
Biden 41% (-6)
Don't want to tell 5% (not previously included)
Someone else 3% (-1)
Would not vote 0% (n/c from 0% at no votes)
Not sure 2% (-1)

That "Don't want to tell" has taken a whole 5% of the sample. Probably not shy Biden voters, but interesting.

Biden losing 6%, 5% choosing newly included "Don't want to tell", and Trump gaining only 1% implies that "Don't want to tell" are former Biden supporters?

The only thing that makes sense to me that could have actually influenced a significant number of Biden supporters becoming "shy Trump" voters is...I don't know. Trump has awful favorable numbers on everything. He's even underwater in some polls on his handling of the economy at this point, which has always been his strength.

[Bootes Void]

Woof!

https://twitter.com/RABAresearch/status/1322695513746165760

Oh snap. We are going to see lots of wars on election night

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Greenfield and/or Biden need to release their statewide internals TONIGHT to rebut this. If they don’t, the next 48 hours are going to be a disaster.

Democrats being panicked is brilliant for the Biden campaign. Let everyone think it's a pure tossup election.

Great way to get out the vote in NC, GA and TX.

[BudgieForce]

Oct 26-29
814 likely voters
MoE: 3.4%
Changes with Sep 14-17

Trump 48% (+1)
Biden 41% (-6)
Don't want to tell 5% (not previously included)
Someone else 3% (-1)
Would not vote 0% (n/c from 0% at no votes)
Not sure 2% (-1)

That "Don't want to tell" has taken a whole 5% of the sample. Probably not shy Biden voters, but interesting.

Biden losing 6%, 5% choosing newly included "Don't want to tell", and Trump gaining only 1% implies that "Don't want to tell" are former Biden supporters?

The only thing that makes sense to me that could have actually influenced a significant number of Biden supporters becoming "shy Trump" voters is...I don't know. Trump has awful favorable numbers on everything. He's even underwater in some polls on handling of the economy at this point, which has always been his strength.

Or it could just be Biden supporters who dont want to reveal who they've voted for. Its a weird reservation quite a few people seem to have. I once got sent to the principles office for asking my 5th grade teacher who she voted for. She got so upset and told me its incredibly rude to ask.

[Sbane]

Very distressing. Seeing what Republicans are doing in Texas and beyond to suppress the vote, I don't understand how anyone can vote for them. This is not going to end very well.

Because nobody in their right mind wants Biden lockdowns, taxes and recession.

So that makes it ok to steal an election? Look at what is happening in Texas and what has been happening with the post office. And you endorsed it in the early voting thread. Do you have an excuse for that or are you just a russian troll here to stir up things?

[Hope For A New Era]

20 pages within the hour?

When it comes to seniors, remember that the Farm Crisis, would still be something on their minds especially with the impact of the trade war, so them voting Democrat while the rest of the electorate doesn't is actually something that makes sense for a state that was Democratic leaning from 1988-2012.

But the rest of the electorate won't be voting Republican. Clinton won the young vote in 2016. There is no way Biden could possibly lose it, he's a far better fit.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Why all the worry? I thought Biden was winning the national election by 15pts and carrying Iowa by 5 points?

[Splash]

Woof!

https://twitter.com/RABAresearch/status/1322695513746165760

RABA also polled Iowa in November 2016 (Trump ahead 44-41). I wonder if they've polled it again or are polling it now and are seeing significantly different results?  

[Bootes Void]

Btw SurveyMonkey has Iowa tied which correctly predicted Trump +10 margin 4 years ago and yet there is no meltdowns over those. Hopefully Dems get motivated for the last couple of days and prove the doomers wrong

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1322704200661389313

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

20 pages within the hour?

When it comes to seniors, remember that the Farm Crisis, would still be something on their minds especially with the impact of the trade war, so them voting Democrat while the rest of the electorate doesn't is actually something that makes sense for a state that was Democratic leaning from 1988-2012.

But the rest of the electorate won't be voting Republican. Clinton won the young vote in 2016. There is no way Biden could possibly lose it, he's a far better fit.

If there is any place where I youngs could shift towards Trump, it is Iowa.


You guys need to chill. Its Iowa, and it isn't 2008 anymore. The state has retaken its place as a soft Lean/Likely Republican state like it was in the period prior to 1988.

[Skill and Chance]

When it comes to seniors, remember that the Farm Crisis, would still be something on their minds especially with the impact of the trade war, so them voting Democrat while the rest of the electorate doesn't is actually something that makes sense for a state that was Democratic leaning from 1988-2012.

Yeah, the 1980's was the most Democratic period in Iowa's entire history relative to the nation.  Same situation as seniors being best for Clinton in 1992.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Greenfield and/or Biden need to release their statewide internals TONIGHT to rebut this. If they don’t, the next 48 hours are going to be a disaster.

Democrats being panicked is brilliant for the Biden campaign. Let everyone think it's a pure tossup election.

Exactly - preferably tilt or lean R, but competitive enough for the doomers to feel obligated to participate. The media pushing a horserace narrative warped public expectations in a frankly irresponsible manner, but it benefited Democrats in the general election phase (although not in the primaries).

[Ljube]

Very distressing. Seeing what Republicans are doing in Texas and beyond to suppress the vote, I don't understand how anyone can vote for them. This is not going to end very well.

Because nobody in their right mind wants Biden lockdowns, taxes and recession.

Biden's economic plan would create more jobs than Trump's.

That's simply not true. The recession is already happening. The stock market crash is a reaction to a probable Biden win. If he actually wins, the stock market is going to reach the levels from the beginning of the COVID crisis, unless a big stimulus package is passed.

I mean, the economy is in deep trouble right now and the people want to elect someone who they think will be worse at handling the economy than his opponent. This is completely illogical to me.

[morgieb]

https://twitter.com/kilometerbryman/status/1322688467894104065

Weighting by CD but not education? The f**k?