IA-Selzer: Trump +7

[Alben Barkley]

This is the best poll for Trump in months, and it’s an outlier with a bunch of undecideds in a small state Biden does not need to win.

Sad to see even some posters who I thought had level heads are losing their minds over this. Everything that’s ever been said about how this race is not at all like 2016 has not suddenly been erased because a single poll in a single state shows  a similar margin to 2016.

I mean, Biden was up 6 in NC with 52% earlier (did NOT happen in 2016), but you didn’t see Trumpers panic and doomers concede they were wrong and Biden’s gonna win.

Because the swing to Biden is obviously suburban.

Besides that nothing has changed since 2016.

That's why Iowa is still heavily Trump (it's gone people...don't know why this forum can't grasp this?) and Minnesota is close. But Biden is doing well in the sunbelt.

District polling shows that while Biden has made huge gains in the suburbs, he ALSO has made up a ton of ground with WWC/rural white Northern voters. Not quite to 2012 levels, but much higher than 2016. That’s why I don’t buy this poll, and why the same CNN poll that found Biden up 6 in NC also found him up 8 in WI and 12 in MI. And again, this ain’t 2016 where it’s like 44-36 with a ton of undecideds and third party vote. He’s consistently cracking 50 in every states he needs to win.

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/EScrimshaw/status/1322704822383104001

Depending upon the size of the Texas Hold 'Em table (Numbers of players left on the board), would definitely prefer at least a pocket pair in a heads up match from late position after the button, and in a single heads to head match up would happily take a 10-2 off-suit for the flop.

Seven-Duce Off, definitely the worst hand possible in poker regardless of table position, and the only reason to play with a hand like that would be if you are down in chips in a heads up scene or pretty much gotta go all-in in a multi player game with no rebuys.

Personally in medium sized games liked to run "Texas Doyle Brunson hands like a 10-2 OFF, especially pre-flop and toss some change into the mix to intimidate smaller pocket pairs and flush/straight draws, especially if I have favorable table position.

Regardless of this particular poll, Trump is effectively running to the point where he needs a favorable flip on the Turn, with Biden rolling with Trips, in order to even possibly be considered to hit on the flop for a Flush or Straight Draw.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

This is the best poll for Trump in months, and it’s an outlier with a bunch of undecideds in a small state Biden does not need to win.

Sad to see even some posters who I thought had level heads are losing their minds over this. Everything that’s ever been said about how this race is not at all like 2016 has not suddenly been erased because a single poll in a single state shows  a similar margin to 2016.

I mean, Biden was up 6 in NC with 52% earlier (did NOT happen in 2016), but you didn’t see Trumpers panic and doomers concede they were wrong and Biden’s gonna win.

Because the swing to Biden is obviously suburban.

Besides that nothing has changed since 2016.

That's why Iowa is still heavily Trump (it's gone people...don't know why this forum can't grasp this?) and Minnesota is close. But Biden is doing well in the sunbelt.

The biggest reason why Clinton lost in 2016 was because she basically gave the bird to blue collars in the Rust Belt. Pennsylvania. Wisconsin. Michigan. These states are in play again not because Bidenites here are blindly hopeful, it's because Biden is actually making a presence there and trying to swing that vote. Are all 3 of those states gonna flip? Are none of them going to? I don't know, but the Rust Belt is easily Biden's path to victory, and pretending that Biden's gains are just in the sunbelt and suburbs is dumb.

Its a rear guard action at best with non-college whites. In some states, he will regain some lost ground like parts of WI, MI and PA (SCRANTON!!!!), but we aren't going back to the days of non-college whites voting less R then College educated whites.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

They may not be in trouble now, but if it is a Biden midterm in 2022, Bustos/Kind will be in trouble then. If IL Dems have half a brain, they will draw a ridiculous tentacle from Bustos' district into Chicagoland.

There is little need to draw it to Chicago Land, just strip the rurals and add Mcclean county. There isn't even enough room in Chicago land.

If you are trying to protect Bustos against a possible midterm red wave, the last thing you want to do is "shore her up" by giving her a bunch of college students in Bloomington who won't bother to vote in a midterm (just like in 2010 and 2014). No, no, no. The point is to make her less exposed to midterm Dem turnout drop-off, not more.

Instead, what you do is remove Peoria from her seat altogether and make her seat a Moline-Rockford district with a tentacle from Rockford into Chicagoland. There are various ways it could go, personally I like drawing it along the Wisconsin border from Rockford into Waukegan/North Chicago to add some non-white voters into the district. That makes it a lot less dependent on fickle white voters. But alternatively you can draw it into places like DeKalb, Aurora, and/or Elgin.

Meanwhile you put Bloomington and Peoria into an entirely different district. Either you put them into IL-13 and make that district actually be Dem enough that a Dem can win it, or else (probably wiser) you draw those into Chicagoland as well with a separate set of ridiculous tentacles. A good candidate district for that job is IL-14, because it has way too much dangerous exurban/semi-rural territory in the first place. But frankly it is probably better to have 2 districts split that job, both with their own sets of ridiculous tentacles.

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

[TheLaRocca]

This is the best poll for Trump in months, and it’s an outlier with a bunch of undecideds in a small state Biden does not need to win.

Sad to see even some posters who I thought had level heads are losing their minds over this. Everything that’s ever been said about how this race is not at all like 2016 has not suddenly been erased because a single poll in a single state shows  a similar margin to 2016.

I mean, Biden was up 6 in NC with 52% earlier (did NOT happen in 2016), but you didn’t see Trumpers panic and doomers concede they were wrong and Biden’s gonna win.

Because the swing to Biden is obviously suburban.

Besides that nothing has changed since 2016.

That's why Iowa is still heavily Trump (it's gone people...don't know why this forum can't grasp this?) and Minnesota is close. But Biden is doing well in the sunbelt.

The biggest reason why Clinton lost in 2016 was because she basically gave the bird to blue collars in the Rust Belt. Pennsylvania. Wisconsin. Michigan. These states are in play again not because Bidenites here are blindly hopeful, it's because Biden is actually making a presence there and trying to swing that vote. Are all 3 of those states gonna flip? Are none of them going to? I don't know, but the Rust Belt is easily Biden's path to victory, and pretending that Biden's gains are just in the sunbelt and suburbs is dumb.

Biden is polling better in Arizona than Pennsylvania lol.

[KoopaDaQuick 🇵🇸]

This is the best poll for Trump in months, and it’s an outlier with a bunch of undecideds in a small state Biden does not need to win.

Sad to see even some posters who I thought had level heads are losing their minds over this. Everything that’s ever been said about how this race is not at all like 2016 has not suddenly been erased because a single poll in a single state shows  a similar margin to 2016.

I mean, Biden was up 6 in NC with 52% earlier (did NOT happen in 2016), but you didn’t see Trumpers panic and doomers concede they were wrong and Biden’s gonna win.

Because the swing to Biden is obviously suburban.

Besides that nothing has changed since 2016.

That's why Iowa is still heavily Trump (it's gone people...don't know why this forum can't grasp this?) and Minnesota is close. But Biden is doing well in the sunbelt.

The biggest reason why Clinton lost in 2016 was because she basically gave the bird to blue collars in the Rust Belt. Pennsylvania. Wisconsin. Michigan. These states are in play again not because Bidenites here are blindly hopeful, it's because Biden is actually making a presence there and trying to swing that vote. Are all 3 of those states gonna flip? Are none of them going to? I don't know, but the Rust Belt is easily Biden's path to victory, and pretending that Biden's gains are just in the sunbelt and suburbs is dumb.

Its a rear guard action at best with non-college whites. In some states, he will regain some lost ground like parts of WI, MI and PA (SCRANTON!!!!), but we aren't going back to the days of non-college whites voting less R then College educated whites.

Yeah, non-college whites aren't gonna become a titanium D force that will turn Pennsylvania blue (non-Atlas colors) for a thousand years, but they're a big factor in why Clinton got murdered in this part of the country, and why the Midwest isn't a lost cause for the vice president.

[TheLaRocca]

This is the best poll for Trump in months, and it’s an outlier with a bunch of undecideds in a small state Biden does not need to win.

Sad to see even some posters who I thought had level heads are losing their minds over this. Everything that’s ever been said about how this race is not at all like 2016 has not suddenly been erased because a single poll in a single state shows  a similar margin to 2016.

I mean, Biden was up 6 in NC with 52% earlier (did NOT happen in 2016), but you didn’t see Trumpers panic and doomers concede they were wrong and Biden’s gonna win.

Because the swing to Biden is obviously suburban.

Besides that nothing has changed since 2016.

That's why Iowa is still heavily Trump (it's gone people...don't know why this forum can't grasp this?) and Minnesota is close. But Biden is doing well in the sunbelt.

The biggest reason why Clinton lost in 2016 was because she basically gave the bird to blue collars in the Rust Belt. Pennsylvania. Wisconsin. Michigan. These states are in play again not because Bidenites here are blindly hopeful, it's because Biden is actually making a presence there and trying to swing that vote. Are all 3 of those states gonna flip? Are none of them going to? I don't know, but the Rust Belt is easily Biden's path to victory, and pretending that Biden's gains are just in the sunbelt and suburbs is dumb.

Its a rear guard action at best with non-college whites. In some states, he will regain some lost ground like parts of WI, MI and PA (SCRANTON!!!!), but we aren't going back to the days of non-college whites voting less R then College educated whites.

Yeah, non-college whites aren't gonna become a titanium D force that will turn Pennsylvania blue (non-Atlas colors) for a thousand years, but they're a big factor in why Clinton got murdered in this part of the country, and why the Midwest isn't a lost cause for the vice president.

Biden is doing better with non-college Whites in areas like SCRANTON, BUFFALO, and likely Youngstown.

These types are very different from rural small town Whites along the Mississippi (of which the DONALD is still very strong with obviously).

[Sbane]

Very distressing. Seeing what Republicans are doing in Texas and beyond to suppress the vote, I don't understand how anyone can vote for them. This is not going to end very well.

Because nobody in their right mind wants Biden lockdowns, taxes and recession.

Biden's economic plan would create more jobs than Trump's.

That's simply not true. The recession is already happening. The stock market crash is a reaction to a probable Biden win. If he actually wins, the stock market is going to reach the levels from the beginning of the COVID crisis, unless a big stimulus package is passed.

I mean, the economy is in deep trouble right now and the people want to elect someone who they think will be worse at handling the economy than his opponent. This is completely illogical to me.

Trump is an incompetent fool who screwed up the Covid response which is causing our current economic problems. If people felt safer they would go out more to restaurants, movies etc. He will be the downfall of America. Perhaps that is why you support him.

You don't know what you are talking about. Just look at what's going on in Europe. They supposedly handled the COVID response in the right way and they are in such a deep trouble now that they were forced to impose new lockdowns.

No, Europe didn't handle it the right way. Certain countries, like Germany, did. South Korea or Singapore are good examples as well. We couldn't even get the basics right, such as our leader telling everyone to put on a mask!

South Korea and Singapore are not applicable to the western democracies.
The people in the western democracies are free and they don't like being told what to do.

Perhaps they should act responsibly without being forced to, or is that too much to ask?

[Alben Barkley]

This is the best poll for Trump in months, and it’s an outlier with a bunch of undecideds in a small state Biden does not need to win.

Sad to see even some posters who I thought had level heads are losing their minds over this. Everything that’s ever been said about how this race is not at all like 2016 has not suddenly been erased because a single poll in a single state shows  a similar margin to 2016.

I mean, Biden was up 6 in NC with 52% earlier (did NOT happen in 2016), but you didn’t see Trumpers panic and doomers concede they were wrong and Biden’s gonna win.

Because the swing to Biden is obviously suburban.

Besides that nothing has changed since 2016.

That's why Iowa is still heavily Trump (it's gone people...don't know why this forum can't grasp this?) and Minnesota is close. But Biden is doing well in the sunbelt.

The biggest reason why Clinton lost in 2016 was because she basically gave the bird to blue collars in the Rust Belt. Pennsylvania. Wisconsin. Michigan. These states are in play again not because Bidenites here are blindly hopeful, it's because Biden is actually making a presence there and trying to swing that vote. Are all 3 of those states gonna flip? Are none of them going to? I don't know, but the Rust Belt is easily Biden's path to victory, and pretending that Biden's gains are just in the sunbelt and suburbs is dumb.

Biden is polling better in Arizona than Pennsylvania lol.

That is objectively untrue.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Another laughable cross-tab: Trump is winning the youth vote!

That probably is wrong, but the general idea of Trump/Republicans doing relatively well among white midwestern youngs is less implausible than it sounds. It is normal that if a state is R-trending you can see Republicans doing better (or at least not as bad as you would think) with young voters. You can see a similar thing going back many years in other states that were at one point safe Dem or competitive as they have trended R such as West Virginia, Arkansas. This occurs because there are still some older Demosaurs in those states, whereas the young whites are more likely to be open to the GOP than the Demosaurs.

[NOVA Green]

Democrats are weirdos. Why do you all act like girls when one thing doesn't go your way? Grow up. We have had polls with Biden leading in Iowa in the last week. and Republicans, just enjoy your final few months with your dear leader in office. You will be locked out until 2032 at least.

Got some issues with Women or "Girls"?

Get it that a bunch of Male Atlas posters are freaking out about this poll, but despite that point, personally it seems like Women Voters are actually much more clear and level-headed than Male voters when it comes to Election Voting in the 2020 election.   

Not trying to bag on you man, just many of us Middle-Aged and Older Men get a bit tired of hearing stuff which might be seen as disparaging of our Wives, Daughters, Grand-Children, and Grand-Parents, after so much crap from Trump hating on the Women over the Years, despite your intention not likely being that of hater and trying to make a point about Atlas, would humbly suggest there are better ways of presenting the position you are representing...   

[TheLaRocca]

Another laughable cross-tab: Trump is winning the youth vote!

That probably is wrong, but the general idea of Trump/Republicans doing relatively well among white midwestern youngs is less implausible than it sounds. It is normal that if a state is R-trending you can see Republicans doing better (or at least not as bad as you would think) with young voters. You can see a similar thing going back many years in other states that were at one point safe Dem or competitive as they have trended R such as West Virginia, Arkansas. This occurs because there are still some older Demosaurs in those states, whereas the young whites are more likely to be open to the GOP than the Demosaurs.

Trump won the under 18 white vote in Iowa 55-31 in the mock vote.

[Alben Barkley]

https://twitter.com/EScrimshaw/status/1322704822383104001

Amongst the things that are wrong about this poll is the fact that Selzer doesn’t weight by education, which I either knew and discarded because I trust Selzer or never learned, but either way, it’s bad. I suspect that this is a fairly leading cause of the error – an overly rural sample causes an error. Selzer missed in 2018 by overstating Democrats in the Governor’s race, and it is frequently the case that pollsters over adjust after a miss. The other main thing that causes alarm is that Selzer has basically given up on actual polling by letting 4% of the sample of her poll say they voted without saying who for.

Says it all, really.

[Ljube]

Very distressing. Seeing what Republicans are doing in Texas and beyond to suppress the vote, I don't understand how anyone can vote for them. This is not going to end very well.

Because nobody in their right mind wants Biden lockdowns, taxes and recession.

Biden's economic plan would create more jobs than Trump's.

That's simply not true. The recession is already happening. The stock market crash is a reaction to a probable Biden win. If he actually wins, the stock market is going to reach the levels from the beginning of the COVID crisis, unless a big stimulus package is passed.

I mean, the economy is in deep trouble right now and the people want to elect someone who they think will be worse at handling the economy than his opponent. This is completely illogical to me.

Trump is an incompetent fool who screwed up the Covid response which is causing our current economic problems. If people felt safer they would go out more to restaurants, movies etc. He will be the downfall of America. Perhaps that is why you support him.

You don't know what you are talking about. Just look at what's going on in Europe. They supposedly handled the COVID response in the right way and they are in such a deep trouble now that they were forced to impose new lockdowns.

Yes. Not every country has a Jacinda Ardern when they need one

She is the Prime Minister of an isolated island.

Sure, Trump could have introduced a ban on travel from all countries, like she did. If he had done that at the time he imposed the China travel ban, COVID would have been eradicated in the United States. But America would have had to stay isolated to keep COVID out.

[Alben Barkley]

Another laughable cross-tab: Trump is winning the youth vote!

That probably is wrong, but the general idea of Trump/Republicans doing relatively well among white midwestern youngs is less implausible than it sounds. It is normal that if a state is R-trending you can see Republicans doing better (or at least not as bad as you would think) with young voters. You can see a similar thing going back many years in other states that were at one point safe Dem or competitive as they have trended R such as West Virginia, Arkansas. This occurs because there are still some older Demosaurs in those states, whereas the young whites are more likely to be open to the GOP than the Demosaurs.

Trump won the under 18 white vote in Iowa 55-31 in the mock vote.

A vote which almost nobody showed up to. In the middle of a pandemic. Which is denied or ignored primarily by Trump supporters. It’s amazing Biden’s support was even that high given all that.

[Buzz]

[WD]

lmao 15 pages. Never change Atlas.

[TheLaRocca]

Another laughable cross-tab: Trump is winning the youth vote!

That probably is wrong, but the general idea of Trump/Republicans doing relatively well among white midwestern youngs is less implausible than it sounds. It is normal that if a state is R-trending you can see Republicans doing better (or at least not as bad as you would think) with young voters. You can see a similar thing going back many years in other states that were at one point safe Dem or competitive as they have trended R such as West Virginia, Arkansas. This occurs because there are still some older Demosaurs in those states, whereas the young whites are more likely to be open to the GOP than the Demosaurs.

Trump won the under 18 white vote in Iowa 55-31 in the mock vote.

A vote which almost nobody showed up to. In the middle of a pandemic. Which is denied or ignored primarily by Trump supporters. It’s amazing Biden’s support was even that high given all that.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1322686184385110016

[Alben Barkley]

Another laughable cross-tab: Trump is winning the youth vote!

That probably is wrong, but the general idea of Trump/Republicans doing relatively well among white midwestern youngs is less implausible than it sounds. It is normal that if a state is R-trending you can see Republicans doing better (or at least not as bad as you would think) with young voters. You can see a similar thing going back many years in other states that were at one point safe Dem or competitive as they have trended R such as West Virginia, Arkansas. This occurs because there are still some older Demosaurs in those states, whereas the young whites are more likely to be open to the GOP than the Demosaurs.

Trump won the under 18 white vote in Iowa 55-31 in the mock vote.

A vote which almost nobody showed up to. In the middle of a pandemic. Which is denied or ignored primarily by Trump supporters. It’s amazing Biden’s support was even that high given all that.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1322686184385110016

What does this have to do with anything? I pretty much agree with his list. But the idea that Biden has made big gains with suburban voters is not somehow mutually exclusive with the idea that he has also made up ground with some rural voters. Why you seem so certain of that bizarre notion is beyond me.

[NOVA Green]

All right... last post of the Night (Maybe) on this poll...

Everybody gotta chill out and maybe listen to a musical interlude with Willie and Leon and a song about Sioux City Sue

[Bootes Void]

Lets get this to 20 pages, this thread is LEGENDARY!!

[Storr]

Lets get this to 20 pages, this thread is LEGENDARY!!

As legendary as Jon Tester's populism?

[Jay 🏳️‍⚧️]

It has been about 2 hours since the poll dropped and I intentionally muted "iowa" on twitter and didn't peek into this thread too often so I could gather some thoughts about this.

Ultimately, I think everyone here has been overhyping this poll.

In their last poll, it was a tie at 47% to 47%, in this poll, Trump leads 48% to 41%. Has Biden really lost 6% of his support in just a month? Well, no, of course not.

This poll differs from the last poll in which they included an option for people who've already voted: "don't want to tell." And that option is taking.. 5%! It's also presumably taking up a significant chunk of the people who say they've already voted, which is a group likely to benefit Biden.

It's not amazing news for the Democrats, but the jank crosstabs and the inclusion of the "I don't want to tell you who I voted for option" might make this poll look deceptively good to Trump.

[Pyro]

Nothing gold can stay.