IA-Selzer: Trump +7

[Crumpets]

Occam's Razor: Trump is probably up about 4 points in Iowa, this poll is within the margin of error of what is correct, as are the ones showing a close race there, the "national picture" of where the race stands is pretty much unchanged.

[Tekken_Guy]

Not y'all trying to unskew the results through their CD polls. It's n = 200, they're bound to be wonky. The n = 800 sample that shows a Biden collapse is really the only part of the poll that matters.

They apparently weight by congressional district so yes they actually may matter

Maybe Cedar Rapids was really underpolled. I mean Biden is blowing it out of the park in Ashley Hinson’s state house district that Hillary barely won, if the PPP poll is to be believed.

[forza nocta]

I said it before but I would have a better time believing this poll if most other polls had Biden in the lower 40s like they did for Hillary in 2016. But every other quality Iowa poll had Biden at 47+ in Iowa. Oh well, we’ll see in a few days.

[Storr]

Districts:

IA-01: R+15
IA-02: R+1
IA-03: D+6
IA-04: R+17

What the....?

I said almost two years ago that Finkenauer would be one of the most likely Dem flips.

Firstly, she's not a good candidate. Also there are no major cities in her district (Cedar Rapids doesn't count), not many suburbs, virtually no minorities and it's not particularly well educated. A district like that is not staying Dem in 2020 outside of New England.

But Trump only won here by about 4 points. This district is just like Cheri Bustos’ and Ron Kind’s districts, and neither of them seem in much trouble.

They're entrenched and Bustos is a high ranking Dem. Kind will be gone in the next Dem midterm and Bustos will only survive due to gerrymandering. If Illinois passes fair redistricting she's likely out too in the next D midterm.

LOL. Kind survived 2010 and IOWA IS NOT WISCONSIN.

[H. Ross Peron]

https://twitter.com/ContentedIndie/status/1322688218697998338?s=20

ContendedIndie is misogynistic subhuman filth who in a just world would be rotting in a camp.

[Beet]

Haha what did I tell you guys? What did I tell you.

[tjstarling]

I won't lie, this is the first thing in a long time that does give me some pause. People like to dismiss this as "just Iowa" but the swings/trends in Iowa do portents trends amongst certain demographics. Also, even if this is "one poll" and no poll is infallible, Selzer has a great track record (final poll Trump +7 in '16 and Obama +5 in '12). Could they be off, sure, but I don't think trashing this is the sensible course of action. Also, I don't put much weight in the complaints about undecideds. Their 2016 polls had high undecideds as well.

Questions I have though:

There are some strange trends in this poll. If you look at the final two Selzer polls from '16, Trump went from +4 to +7. But Clinton didn't lose support between those polls, Trump just gained. Why is Biden's support dropping here? Not saying it's wrong, just interesting.

Also, with hindsight, we saw why 2016 polls missed the mark (under sampling Trump friendly demos, high undecideds, etc.). Contrary to what some people here and elsewhere tend to assert, nonpartisan pollsters don't want to be wrong. That's just silly. Many have made adjustments this cycle. So if that's the case, what does Selzer know or is capturing here that other pollsters are missing? I can't figure that part out either.

[libertpaulian]

Also, if Trump truly is winning Iowa bigly, why is he paying visits to it this weekend?

[Splash]

How come Survey Monkey isn't getting more love on this board? I mean, if we're making value judgements of polling results entirely based on prior performance, then Survey Monkey was actually more accurate than Selzer; they had Trump +9 in the final IA poll, nailing the margin.

Looking forward to Biden +12 in WI on Tuesday!  

[dspNY]

Also, if Trump truly is winning Iowa bigly, why is he paying visits to it this weekend?

That's exactly my point. There's no need for Trump to go to Iowa if he's up that much. It would be a waste of his time when there are other larger, close states

[Senator Spark]

The Gold Standard. Now that you are seeing what I have all along I'd like to let you see a great sight of an amazing President who will keep winning for the American people.

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1322693191049580544

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/ContentedIndie/status/1322688218697998338?s=20

Contented Indie with all due respect.. is a complete idiot.

I've seen him claim that Montana is a tossup, and that Biden would come within 10 points in WV. lmao.

I don't think he ever said within 10 in WV.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ContentedIndie/status/1272192627933360129

[2016]

Typical Atlas. Of course, Trump supporters and Doomers are in here salivating over one poll lol.

Meanwhile, ignoring all of the other great polls that came out today for Biden. And ignoring the fact that this is not 2012 and Iowa is irrelevant to Biden's chances of victory.

Let's get this straighten out: Do you really believe Biden is up with 10-15 Points with Independents accross the Midwest as most of the other Pollsters have him? I questioned it all along. Something was wrong with that - Period. What might save Biden is the large VBM Vote otherwise it's curtains for him.

In fact, if Trump loses it will be because of the VBM Ballots. People who are showing up in person are most likely voting for him.

[Hammy]

*** I apologize for the sh*t posting tonight everyone.  I don’t think I’m gonna be having much fun in 3 days, so let me have my moment right now.

Nah, the memes are always fun

[libertpaulian]

https://twitter.com/ContentedIndie/status/1322688218697998338?s=20

Contented Indie with all due respect.. is a complete idiot.

I've seen him claim that Montana is a tossup, and that Biden would come within 10 points in WV. lmao.

I don't think he ever said within 10 in WV.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ContentedIndie/status/1272192627933360129

This was also when the South was in the midst of its major COVID outbreak, the nation was still hot-blooded over George Floyd and Breonna Taylor, Trump pulled his tear-gassing stunt in front of that Episcopal chapel, and unemployment was still rising.

It was reasonable to believe at that time that Trump could lose a LOT of ground.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/ContentedIndie/status/1322688218697998338?s=20

Contented Indie with all due respect.. is a complete idiot.

I've seen him claim that Montana is a tossup, and that Biden would come within 10 points in WV. lmao.

I don't think he ever said within 10 in WV.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ContentedIndie/status/1272192627933360129

This. This kind of garbage analysis is why I don't follow or even pay attention to election/political twitter.

[Rand]

This thread has an abundance of quotable posts that shall be put into good use come Wednesday.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/iowa/

Here’s the 2016 polling forecast from 538. Note that Hillary had not reached 45% in an Iowa poll since August.

[TopShelfGoal]

I am not a doomer and don't think this poll means Trump reelection but I must admit that this poll has me shook.

[Podgy the Bear]

I take it this page is gonna reach 6 pages by Midnight EST?


I felt Ohio was likelier to flip than Iowa anyway so I don't get the hysteria.

You were way too optimistic.  Up to page 9 and it's only 8:30 PM.  You underestimate the bedwetters on this Forum who have completely freaked out over one statewide poll in what should be the Trump redoubt.

[Gass3268]

Have they always had the "Don't want to tell (Already Voted only)" option in the past? The amount there (5% in the Presidential race and 4% in the Senate race) almost 100% explains the support that both Biden and Greenfield lost from the September poll.

I think at least some of Biden’s support is hidden in the “Don’t want to tell (Already Voted only).” Trump so probably still up, but not this much.

[Hammy]

The Gold Standard. Now that you are seeing what I have all along I'd like to let you see a great sight of an amazing President who will keep winning for the American people.

If Republicans are truly winning, why are they trying to have votes tossed in PA and TX through court intervention?

[libertpaulian]

Another laughable cross-tab: Trump is winning the youth vote!

[Hope For A New Era]

That's...quite the sampling error. How do you even end up with such a distortion? Did they delete Cedar Rapids from the map? Did Hillary stop chilling?